Realistic trade scenarios for Alex Smith

[MHSL82]

in just reading the article that would've been my take.....the 1st overall for Alex Smith. in reality just don't see it along with 99.9% of us here.

if we were the Chiefs what would we be thinking? yes, i would consider trading a lower pick for Alex Smith, not #1 overall.

regarding #1 overall..............i'd try to trade down but looks like no one wants it this draft? so if i HAD to stay put, i'd just go with my BPA. it might be a franchise LT and thats not so bad. obviously, the key is for that player to pan out.

If there was anyone to believe that he's worth that pick, it would be Viper or me - but I don't. Even if the #1 is unwanted because of cost. But it would be ironic if Smith was drafted in a year weak on QBs and the #1 unwanted and when traded garnered that same pick under similar circumstances. I'd just get the BPA and hope to pay them the best contract I could get if I were them. And yes, I would trade a lower pick for Alex Smith. That'd be his best option due to personel along with Cleveland (runningback, oline, and salary cap) and I think he'd fit for this year. I'll remain more open for after that than, like you'd say, 99.9% of us here.

 

[Bemular]

in just reading the article that would've been my take.....the 1st overall for Alex Smith. in reality just don't see it along with 99.9% of us here.

if we were the Chiefs what would we be thinking? yes, i would consider trading a lower pick for Alex Smith, not #1 overall.

regarding #1 overall..............i'd try to trade down but looks like no one wants it this draft? so if i HAD to stay put, i'd just go with my BPA. it might be a franchise LT and thats not so bad. obviously, the key is for that player to pan out.

Keep in mind that drafting a FLT still leaves KC without a QB - if that is in fact what they are looking for - see the dilemma?

 

[MHSL82]

Keep in mind that drafting a FLT still leaves KC without a QB - if that is in fact what they are looking for - see the dilemma?

They have a second round draft pick and they could trade a 2014 draft pick, so I think the better option, if they want Smith, is to trade one of those, and maybe pick that FLT with the first or trade down if they can.

But they better look at what the others in the top ten want and start expressing interest in them if they want to trade down. That's why I think Dorsey came out a few days ago to say there were no QBs worth that spot. "So no QBs = someone you want to get, come trade with us." - Dorsey.

Some people on the articles said it was him telling the QBs to show them everything they've got, but I think it's more to generate interest to trade down. I mean, the QBs already are trying to show what they've got if they medically can.

 

[deep9er]

Keep in mind that drafting a FLT still leaves KC without a QB - if that is in fact what they are looking for - see the dilemma?

yes, there is a delimna if you're just talking draft, that being you can only take one player with the #1 overall. but if no one wants to trade up to your #1 overall, what are you going to do? you can reach for a QB or take your top player who isn't a QB.

[was just thinking FLT based on what i've read so far. it might be something else]

now if you're not thinking just one player, again, if you're KC what would you do? IMO trading the #1 overall for Alex Smith is sorta reaching too. my #1 overall for Alex Smith is forcing a QB, so i'd just take my FLT for the next 10 years.

KC shouldn't be thinking only the 2013 season, but good drafts from here on.

 

[Bemular]

yes, there is a delimna if you're just talking draft, that being you can only take one player with the #1 overall. but if no one wants to trade up to your #1 overall, what are you going to do? you can reach for a QB or take your top player who isn't a QB.

[was just thinking FLT based on what i've read so far. it might be something else]

now if you're not thinking just one player, again, if you're KC what would you do? IMO trading the #1 overall for Alex Smith is sorta reaching too. my #1 overall for Alex Smith is forcing a QB, so i'd just take my FLT for the next 10 years.

KC shouldn't be thinking only the 2013 season, but good drafts from here on.

It all comes down to value. Based on KC's evaluations Smith may not be a reach at all, in fact he may be a red-hot deal. Luck's signing bonus was ~$14.5M, and if KC can keep the 49ers on the hook until after, what, 4/1 then Smith will cost only $7.5m.

That is a huge savings for a team somewhere between rebuilding and transitioning in these dead cap years. I'm not disagreeing, arguing or even expressing what I think might happen - but I am intrigued by how all of these moving parts will resolve.

 

[MHSL82]

It all comes down to value. Based on KC's evaluations Smith may not be a reach at all, in fact he may be a red-hot deal. Luck's signing bonus was ~$14.5M, and if KC can keep the 49ers on the hook until after, what, 4/1 then Smith will cost only $7.5m.

That is a huge savings for a team somewhere between rebuilding and transitioning in these dead cap years. I'm not disagreeing, arguing or even expressing what I think might happen - but I am intrigued by how all of these moving parts will resolve.

Even better for them, they only have to wait until March 14th, because that's when we pay the 1 Million. April 1st is when the rest comes onto our cap if we don't release or trade him yet (not sure if that is end of 4/1 or start).

Here's what I have heard: If we trade before March 14th we pay nothing. If we release before March 12th, he gets $2 M. So there's no releasing until 3/12 at the earliest and no likely trade until 3/14 at the earliest, if the other team is smart. Between those dates is when I think bidding or desperation would show if it happened.

I have also conflictingly heard that the 2 million number is if we release after 3/14 or 3/12, which makes more sense. Puts incentive to act early so he gets to know where he's traded or gets to go into FA. Not sure what happens if we trade after that date, I think it's just the 1M.

 

[Bemular]

Even better for them, they only have to wait until March 14th, because that's when we pay the 1 Million. April 1st is when the rest comes onto our cap if we don't release or trade him yet (not sure if that is end of 4/1 or start).

Here's what I have heard: If we trade before March 14th we pay nothing. If we release before March 12th, he gets $2 M. So there's no releasing until 3/12 at the earliest and no likely trade until 3/14 at the earliest, if the other team is smart. Between those dates is when I think bidding or desperation would show if it happened.

Yeah, I didn't bother checking dates - obviously. The bold seems peculiar - but, whatever it is - it is.

 

[MHSL82]

Yeah, I didn't bother checking dates - obviously. The bold seems peculiar - but, whatever it is - it is.

I found it. I was wrong initially. My edit later was right in the last paragraph.

I know you don't care necessarily, this is for everyone too and so I don't misplace it later.

"If he is traded by the third day of the league year -- March 14 -- then the 49ers owe him nothing. If Smith is cut before the third day of the league year, the 49ers owe him a $1 million roster bonus. If Smith is cut after the third day of the league year, the 49ers owe him a $2 million roster bonus."

I'm not sure if that is 1 + 2 or just 2, but whatever. Our incentives to trade and their incentives to wait doesn't change.

Super Bowl XLVII -- Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson can't cash in

 

[MHSL82]

Posted this earlier in a now dead thread. It's a bit obvious, but after finding the other thread that had the above link, I might as well keep it together.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"So it sounds like the order of preference is:

1. Trade before March 14th.
2. Trade after March 14th.
3. Cut him before March 14th.
4. Cut or trade after April 1st.

I thought they might drag along, saying that AS + CK salaries together is reasonable for the QB position and Alex is a great backup - so as to raise the trade value - but now, it's clear that action will be taken before March 14th preferably. The April 1st date is big, but it seems like March 14th is bigger, as far as waste. We waste 1-2 million if we don't act by then and get nothing but the trade or a cap hit. If we don't release or trade before April 1st, we still get his services as a backup."

 

[deep9er]

if i'm KC, might be thinking no one else is going hard for Alex before these dates? don't think anyone else is going to offer so much in trade, the 9ers can't refuse? IF so, i'd just wait for SF to make their move. wouldn't even trade a mid round pick.

when he does hit the open market, i'll likely offer the best scenario for him to start. Alex Smith isn't going to the highest bidder, but the best opportunity to succeed.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

I will be on a plane to interview as the new GM of the Chiefs if they trade the #1 overall pick for Alex Smith.

 

[EaseUrStorm]

Yeah that is pretty freakin ridiculous.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

They have a second round draft pick and they could trade a 2014 draft pick, so I think the better option, if they want Smith, is to trade one of those, and maybe pick that FLT with the first or trade down if they can.

But they better look at what the others in the top ten want and start expressing interest in them if they want to trade down. That's why I think Dorsey came out a few days ago to say there were no QBs worth that spot. "So no QBs = someone you want to get, come trade with us." - Dorsey.

Some people on the articles said it was him telling the QBs to show them everything they've got, but I think it's more to generate interest to trade down. I mean, the QBs already are trying to show what they've got if they medically can.

Who on these boards at least wouldn't jump at KC's third round pick for Smith? That's about my most optimistic projection for a pick, though I'd certainly take more...

 

[BINGO]

More buzz on Alex Smith
February, 18, 2013 3:13PM ET
By Tim Kavanagh | ESPN.com

With less than a month remaining until the start of the league year, we're still a ways off from an actual trade involving San Francisco 49ers QB Alex Smith. In fact, we coul very well see FA QB Matt Moore sign with a team before Smith or Matt Flynn is dealt.

But make no mistake, the 49ers do intend to trade Smith, provided they can get a reasonable return on him, and there are a number of teams that should be interested; name a QB-needy team, in fact, and there's likely already been a line of speculation linking them to a Smith trade. As we traverse the next few weeks of non-trading, however, Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee provides a primer on some myths that we'll see regarding a potential Smith trade, and why they're bogus.

The Niners must convince other teams that they're happy hanging onto Smith, so there's a myth being pushed that everything would be copacetic having Smith serve as the backup to Colin Kaepernick. In reality, this probably wouldn't work so well. On the other side of the debate, the teams in the market for a QB want to diminish Smith's value, so they are the ones pushing the narrative that a) there isn't a great market for his services, b) that the Niners owe it to Smith to release him outright and c) that his current contract is scaring some teams off.

The third part of that may be the case for a team like the New York Jets, who are currently in a tough cap situation, but other suitors are better off (such as the Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars). It's really not a matter of if the Niners will trade him; rather it's for how much and to whom.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

Who on these boards at least wouldn't jump at KC's third round pick for Smith? That's about my most optimistic projection for a pick, though I'd certainly take more...

I would need surgery to correct the permanent smile on my face if this occurred.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

More buzz on Alex Smith
February, 18, 2013 3:13PM ET
By Tim Kavanagh | ESPN.com

With less than a month remaining until the start of the league year, we're still a ways off from an actual trade involving San Francisco 49ers QB Alex Smith. In fact, we coul very well see FA QB Matt Moore sign with a team before Smith or Matt Flynn is dealt.

But make no mistake, the 49ers do intend to trade Smith, provided they can get a reasonable return on him, and there are a number of teams that should be interested; name a QB-needy team, in fact, and there's likely already been a line of speculation linking them to a Smith trade. As we traverse the next few weeks of non-trading, however, Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee provides a primer on some myths that we'll see regarding a potential Smith trade, and why they're bogus.

The Niners must convince other teams that they're happy hanging onto Smith, so there's a myth being pushed that everything would be copacetic having Smith serve as the backup to Colin Kaepernick. In reality, this probably wouldn't work so well. On the other side of the debate, the teams in the market for a QB want to diminish Smith's value, so they are the ones pushing the narrative that a) there isn't a great market for his services, b) that the Niners owe it to Smith to release him outright and c) that his current contract is scaring some teams off.

The third part of that may be the case for a team like the New York Jets, who are currently in a tough cap situation, but other suitors are better off (such as the Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars). It's really not a matter of if the Niners will trade him; rather it's for how much and to whom.

The Jets just brought themselves to the cap if it is around $120M. They slashed $27,514,998 with the cuts of Pace, Jason Smith, Eric Smith, and Jason Baker plus the use of $3,400,000 in 2012 cap rollover. Next on their to do list should be Bart Scott. Cutting him would clear $7,150,000. So I just don't see a way Alex fits for them. They need to sign free agents and draft picks with that money. Cutting Tebow only frees up $1,055,000. Sanchez, Holmes, and Harris have their cap in a noose.

 

[Bemular]

The Jets just brought themselves to the cap if it is around $120M. They slashed $27,514,998 with the cuts of Pace, Jason Smith, Eric Smith, and Jason Baker plus the use of $3,400,000 in 2012 cap rollover. Next on their to do list should be Bart Scott. Cutting him would clear $7,150,000. So I just don't see a way Alex fits for them. They need to sign free agents and draft picks with that money. Cutting Tebow only frees up $1,055,000. Sanchez, Holmes, and Harris have their cap in a noose.

According the NFL.Com the Jets came into the off-season ~$53m over the cap; the worst in the league.

 

[MHSL82]

More buzz on Alex Smith
...The Niners must convince other teams that they're happy hanging onto Smith, so there's a myth being pushed that everything would be copacetic having Smith serve as the backup to Colin Kaepernick. In reality, this probably wouldn't work so well...

I just hope Alex Smith doesn't get in on the act, have an interview with him asking him if he could be a backup to Colin for this year and say yes. It would at most only marginally help anything, but be untruthful, dispassionate if true, and people who dislike Smith for some reason would run with it. So far, he's just said that he's under contract so that's a possibility, he loves this team but he wants to play.

Alex has no incentive to want us to have a good draft pick besides a high pick being a vote of confidence. Otherwise, he'd want a release to choose himself or the lowest pick for him so his new team has picks to draft help for the oline, RB, etc. Alternatively, he'd want a pick that is normally for a developmental QB (2nd-4th) to be traded so that his new team would draft a lower round QB, not another 2nd round QB.

I don't think I have to worry about him saying this as I don't think he'll be saying anything and if he does it'll be PC/PR up the wazzoo. His agent may have him say something, but I think it's wholly unnecessary. We know what he wants.

 

[Bemular]

Who on these boards at least wouldn't jump at KC's third round pick for Smith? That's about my most optimistic projection for a pick, though I'd certainly take more...

Anything above a 4th is a profit to the 49ers by my terms.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

So the Jets did decide to cut Scott.