Realistic trade scenarios for Alex Smith

[4lifer9er]

God.. Peter King is such a tool.. He just hates on players not in GB or NY or named Brady or Manning. He picked against us every single time this postseason if I am not mistaken.

 

[dredinis21]

I salivate at the idea that there are bad teams out there that would want our "trash" (meaning overpriced backup) for high draft picks but I can't fathom that. Especially since everyone and their mother knows that if we can't unload him, we will eventually cut him and his 8.5 mil salary. I know that there are teams like CLE where Alex seems to be a good fit, but CLE seems as if they would only be in a bidding war with themselves. What I don't want is Alex in ARZ. I would rather ship him to the Raiders for an end zone pylon and a 6 pack of mountain dew then allow him to hit FA and decide to go to ARZ.

 

[Heathbar012]

I salivate at the idea that there are bad teams out there that would want our "trash" (meaning overpriced backup) for high draft picks but I can't fathom that. Especially since everyone and their mother knows that if we can't unload him, we will eventually cut him and his 8.5 mil salary. I know that there are teams like CLE where Alex seems to be a good fit, but CLE seems as if they would only be in a bidding war with themselves. What I don't want is Alex in ARZ. I would rather ship him to the Raiders for an end zone pylon and a 6 pack of mountain dew then allow him to hit FA and decide to go to ARZ.

This, which is why a 5th-rounder would be fair and valuable in many different ways. The most important is that now Dashon Goldson will really get paid! Somebody find momma a new Caddy... make it a Bentley!

 

[SRPnVA]

We're gonna get more than a 5th for Smith. Chiefs, browns pretty much already confirmed bidders. Wouldn't be surprised if another team or two got involved.

 

[BINGO]

Alex Smith's trade value
February, 12, 2013 10:50AM ET
By Tim Kavanagh | ESPN.com

The two big stories of the week thus far are that Percy Harvin is reportedly available to the highest bidder in trade, and that the Philadelphia Eagles have reached a deal to keep Michael Vick in town for 2013. While this doesn't guarantee that Vick will start for them, it does take a potential option off the market for any of the QB-needy teams around the league. As we pointed out yesterday, this ups the demand for players like Alex Smith, Matt Flynn and Matt Moore.

But just how much has that value been enhanced? Looking at recent trades involving backup QBs, we have the Kevin Kolb deal (which netted the Eagles a starting CB and a second-round pick in the next offseason's draft), and the Charlie Whitehurst trade (in which the Seahawks and Chargers swapped second-round position, about an equal value to a third-round pick). However, based upon Smith's resume compared to that of Kolb and Whitehurst, it's expected that he'll fetch more than either of those two. The fact that Vick is now off the table for teams like Arizona, Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City and the Jets could mean that the Niners could potentially draw a second-round pick in exchange for Smith, who performed quite well in 2011 and 2012 prior to the concussion that effectively ended his season. Based on where those teams are picking in Round 2, it's a huge price to pay, but Smith is more of a known commodity than fellow trade bait Flynn, and more skilled than Moore. Moreover, given the dearth of players considered to be instant-starters at QB coming out of this year's draft class, this may increase the price these teams are willing to pay for Smith, who could come in and take over the offense from Day One.

 

[Heathbar012]

Alex Smith's trade value
February, 12, 2013 10:50AM ET
By Tim Kavanagh | ESPN.com

The two big stories of the week thus far are that Percy Harvin is reportedly available to the highest bidder in trade, and that the Philadelphia Eagles have reached a deal to keep Michael Vick in town for 2013. While this doesn't guarantee that Vick will start for them, it does take a potential option off the market for any of the QB-needy teams around the league. As we pointed out yesterday, this ups the demand for players like Alex Smith, Matt Flynn and Matt Moore.

But just how much has that value been enhanced? Looking at recent trades involving backup QBs, we have the Kevin Kolb deal (which netted the Eagles a starting CB and a second-round pick in the next offseason's draft), and the Charlie Whitehurst trade (in which the Seahawks and Chargers swapped second-round position, about an equal value to a third-round pick). However, based upon Smith's resume compared to that of Kolb and Whitehurst, it's expected that he'll fetch more than either of those two. The fact that Vick is now off the table for teams like Arizona, Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City and the Jets could mean that the Niners could potentially draw a second-round pick in exchange for Smith, who performed quite well in 2011 and 2012 prior to the concussion that effectively ended his season. Based on where those teams are picking in Round 2, it's a huge price to pay, but Smith is more of a known commodity than fellow trade bait Flynn, and more skilled than Moore. Moreover, given the dearth of players considered to be instant-starters at QB coming out of this year's draft class, this may increase the price these teams are willing to pay for Smith, who could come in and take over the offense from Day One.

Well, woooooohoooooo! Anything higher than the 5th round is pure gravy, to me. Use it to grab Harvin or create more depth. Either way, the next decade looks good (barring horrible injuries to key players). Alex Smith has really turned out to be a valuable asset. It's a bummer that he had to go through so much to get to this point. I hope he lands in a situation that is good for him and never meets the Niners in the playoffs.

 

[dredinis21]

I still don't see it. In this day and age of controlled rookie contracts, why pay Smith 8.5 when you could draft a QB in the first and pay him a quarter of that....and you control him for 4 yrs? Yes, you get an instant starter but how much is a stopgap worth to a team as bad as KC or CLE? CLE may not be as bad but they are far from making up ground on the Steelers, Ravens, and even the Bengals in their own division. I don't know if a team like CLE would be willing to pay up on higher then a 5th rd pick when their roster is in need of serious talent that the draft provides.

 

[EaseUrStorm]

This BSPN guy has a flaw in reasoning. Kolb was being looked at with an elite QB ceiling and that drove up his value. What you see is what you get with Alex, so I don't see teams going bananas to offer up a high 2nd rounder unless they got super desperate to reach for something to save their jobs. I really want to see it, but I can't see it.

The weak QB class is definitely a driver but I still don't think someone would reach with a high 2nd. I would be ecstatic if two teams got in a bidding war and ended coughing up a third.

I think the most reasonable move for both teams would be for the recent Maiocco article scenario to play out where they cough up a conditional 2014 6th rounder that could escalate all the way up to a 2nd depending on performance. Something like that would really make a lot of sense and limits a lot of exposure plus gives us the potential for him to earn us a high pick that the team would gladly give up for a strong performance next year.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I would be surprised with a 2nd. I've maintained that a 3rd or 4th is entirely possible, though.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

I could see us trading Alex Smith on April 1st for a second round pick. I'll know it is bullshit though because his salary becomes guaranteed that day.

 

[MHSL82]

... Especially since everyone and their mother knows that if we can't unload him, we will eventually cut him and his 8.5 mil salary. I know that there are teams like CLE where Alex seems to be a good fit, but CLE seems as if they would only be in a bidding war with themselves...

... Yes, you get an instant starter but how much is a stopgap worth to a team as bad as KC or CLE?... I don't know if a team like CLE would be willing to pay up on higher then a 5th rd pick when their roster is in need of serious talent that the draft provides.

I think Smith could be somewhere between a stopgap and a franchise QB, in that he won't be elite or prevent a team from drafting another QB, but could be there for longer than 2 years. If Reid or Turner believe in their QB management skills, they may feel that they can afford to give up more for Smith than seems reasonable and help other aspects of their team. Depending on how Smith does, he could be there for awhile.

A higher draft pick is only a lot if you close your mind off to keeping him longer than two years. Now, I agree you cannot assume that he'll work longer than that, but you can't be close-minded. Then again, you can't also be desperate or unrealistic - this is why I don't think they'll just wait for us to cut him but a second is probably not happening. But if they believe in him, and that's a big IF that all of us have seemed to eliminate, a second round is reasonable if they use him right and develop around him.

And It won't be Cleveland bidding against itself. Kansas City and Jacksonville will likely be involved. Arizona may talk but we're not trading to a rival. Buffalo and Jets may talk, but I don't see that happening. One has Fitz and the other no money and needs the draft (though they'll probably waste picks anyway).

But this is just my opinion, you could be right about the trade value and probably are right about the stopgap bit. I just thought that those who would trade a high pick would be more open and if Smith goes for a low pick, it's clear - but knowing we will cut him may make it lower than it normally would have been.

Damnit, if only we had won the SB last year, we could have won without Smith being any better (though that would have helped). Despite not being any better of a QB in talent, that might have driven up the trade value. Harbaugh would have still made the switch to Kaep after a concussion, IMO.

 

[clyde_carbon]

I think it will be proven that people on this board value Smith much more than actual NFL personnel guys. Most of those scenarios are unrealistic. We'd be lucky to get a 4th.

 

[EaseUrStorm]

All it takes is two desperate teams to make something happen...

Okay - I have a plan. Harbaugh can gather up a bunch of flowers after Valentines day from the trash and give them to Alex Smith's wife again, and then sweet talk him into renegotiate his contract for the good of humanity to the league minimum. At that point we'll need to get prepared to start batting offers off with a stick.

 

[Bemular]

All it takes is two desperate teams to make something happen...

Okay - I have a plan. Harbaugh can gather up a bunch of flowers after Valentines day from the trash and give them to Alex Smith's wife again, and then sweet talk him into renegotiate his contract for the good of humanity to the league minimum. At that point we'll need to get prepared to start batting offers off with a stick.

Diggin' it!

 

[recon]

smith for berry. lol

 

[MHSL82]

I think it will be proven that people on this board value Smith much more than actual NFL personnel guys. Most of those scenarios are unrealistic. We'd be lucky to get a 4th.

That's true. I know I'm guilty of this, but I'm optimistic. I know the realistic possibility is lower.

 

[MHSL82]

All it takes is two desperate teams to make something happen...

Okay - I have a plan. Harbaugh can gather up a bunch of flowers after Valentines day from the trash and give them to Alex Smith's wife again, and then sweet talk him into renegotiate his contract for the good of humanity to the league minimum. At that point we'll need to get prepared to start batting offers off with a stick.

If that happens, we should just keep him. League minimum for a guy who knows our offense and personnel well, can spot duty, can help Kaep (won't overstate, but more than some), etc.? I think if this happened it would be a dickbag thing to do and no, I didn't think starting Kaep over him after the concussion was a dickbag move. If Smith voluntarily decided to take less money to be a backup here, it wouldn't be that type of move.

I know this was a joke, but I know Smith is too smart to do that and has confidence in himself to take it as it goes without helping us trade him. I think he'd rather get cut and see what he can get than to do this, even if there was a guarantee we wouldn't keep him for the minimum.

 

[Robotech]

I think it will be proven that people on this board value Smith much more than actual NFL personnel guys. Most of those scenarios are unrealistic. We'd be lucky to get a 4th.

Yeah, I think those personnel guys probably view Alex as a game manager who did well under Harbaugh's system. Protects the ball well and is efficient, but will not give you many big plays. I'd be happy with a 4th rounder. We don't have much leverage. No matter what Jed York says about wanting to have both Colin and Alex, teams know that we will cut Alex if we are not able to trade him.

 

[MHSL82]

Alex Smith, 49ers big winners with Vick off table | News | NFL.com

Now, we need Flynn to restructure his deal with Seattle under the idea that Wilson could get injured... then, that FA is out of the way. Moore shouldn't be a threat. Geno Smith needs to get a DUI where no one is hurt, where they find a stash of marijuana. Barkley needs to fail in the combine (though as a USC alum, I wouldn't want this) showing that his injury that held him out of the Senior Bowl is in fact serious. And Tyler Wilson should sign a contract with the CFL for no good reason.

BTW, this is for our benefit, not Smith's, he'll play somewhere regardless of how low the pick is or if he's cut.

 

[NinerSickness]

Maybe the NFL will allow the Niners to trade Alex for a holding flag in the end zone on that last drive.

Anyone think they'll accept that trade?