Realistic trade scenarios for Alex Smith

[MHSL82]

Dennis Dixon reunites with Chip Kelly, signs with Philadelphia Eagles

Now, this makes me feel Foles will go to Kansas City and Smith to Cleveland. Why have Dixon as the third guy if he has been in Kelly's system and is similar to Vick? Why keep Foles if Dixon is second? If Reid and going after somebody, why not go with the guy you picked - either as a stop gap or more?

How can Dixon sign now? I thought teams could only resign their own players? Is there an exception for PS? I guess we've signed a few future deals. He wasn't claimed off waivers. The Ravens used him to prepare for Kaep, they can use PS players for that, right? Of did they have to activate him to the 53 (not the 46)? The scout team is the PS, not the backups, so nevermind.

 

[MHSL82]

San Francisco 49ers: Niner Insider Blog » One solution to the Alex Smith predicament

This suggestion by Lynch is silly. He suggests that they could let him go with no trade return if they told him he can't go to Arizona. They could keep him when he wants to leave. But they don't want to pay so they are open to letting him go free, but not to Arizona. The leverage already is Niners don't have to release when he wants one, Smith gets 8.5 total when that money is needed elsewhere. This suggestion makes it sound like his solution creates that leverage. If they release Smith, he can go where he wants, regardless of any promises made.

They can't tell him what to do beyond keeping him or trading him. Releasing him makes him a free agent. If they told him this, they'd have to keep him or release him on his word or they'd have to pay him what would likely be an illegal contract to get him to sign away his right to sign with whom he chooses (assuming the team wants him). Releasing him cannot be consideration for a contract, unless allowed by the CBA. Him signing that deal would of course prevent Smith from being in purgatory (bench) but it would also remove the leverage, however little, Smith had.

If Smith said ok, without that contract that I'm not sure is legal, and then bolted to Arizona anyway, if that was his best interests, I wouldn't blame him. It's a business. I didn't blame them for switching to Kaep when they called Smith the starter. Obviously they didn't promise the starting job to Smith like Smith here would be promising to not sign with Arizona, but I still see it as similar.

I know most of you, if not all, wouldn't be concerned if Alex to go to the Cardinals. But how he'd do is another matter and not relevant to Lynch's article. I think he'd be limited to how well his oline would, winning the first four games last year screwed with their chance of getting that high of a pick to resolve their issues.

 

[MHSL82]

They can't make him a restricted free agent, could they? Where if Smith signed with Arizona, they could match but would decline otherwise. I certainly don't think they'll trade within the division and prefer an AFC team, but I don't see it as concerning them, THIS much like Lynch suggests.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

According to USA Today, the Chiefs are interested in trading for Nick Foles should he become available.
It's the first concrete report actually saying Kansas City is interested, while the rest have been speculation and dot connecting. USA Today's source says the Chiefs are "working on plans to add a quarterback," and Foles is one of the possibilities. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com recently stated coach Andy Reid and OC Doug Pederson are "very high" on Foles' future. Matt Cassel is expected to be released, and if the Eagles make Foles available, he could likely be had for a mid-round pick.

 

[MHSL82]

According to USA Today, the Chiefs are interested in trading for Nick Foles should he become available.
It's the first concrete report actually saying Kansas City is interested, while the rest have been speculation and dot connecting. USA Today's source says the Chiefs are "working on plans to add a quarterback," and Foles is one of the possibilities. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com recently stated coach Andy Reid and OC Doug Pederson are "very high" on Foles' future. Matt Cassel is expected to be released, and if the Eagles make Foles available, he could likely be had for a mid-round pick.

Yeah, Foles is cheaper, was picked by Reid, could be had for less, has worked in the exact same system (not just similar like Alex), and is younger. So I see that happening and then Smith might go to the Browns via trade or Cardinals as a free agent.

But I would also add that these teams have no incentive to spread their interest to Smith when they think he will be released. Foles has a low trade value right now and is cheaper. If they could just have Smith at his contract, there might be more interest - not saying beating down the doors, of course. They have every reason to get SF to release or lower the trade amount needed.

 

[justforkicks]

I think everything is just talk and gamesmanship right now. The league year is still a month away and I don't think most teams are leaking their trade intentions to the media. We'll see next month how everything turns out.

Who knows, maybe Kolb might get cut outright too and KC may go after him as a stop gap, since he's a known commodity for Reid. But, I think Alex is better than both him and Foles though and KC has a decent chance to compete next year (pretty much one Peyton injury away from the AFC West crown) so they may want the more proven commodity. They may even say screw it and go for both Alex and Foles. Get their current and future QB for mid level picks. March will be an interesting month...

 

[Kinzu]

Alex Smith - proven QB capable of winning in the Playoffs
Nick Foles - Well he started a few games so at least he is a bit above where Flynn was a year ago.

Honestly I saw nothing in Foles to suggest he is worth much in a trade. I'm not saying Alex is worth a kings ransom, but he is proven and on an extremely team friendly contract.

 

[MHSL82]

Alex Smith - proven QB capable of winning in the Playoffs
Nick Foles - Well he started a few games so at least he is a bit above where Flynn was a year ago.

Honestly I saw nothing in Foles to suggest he is worth much in a trade. I'm not saying Alex is worth a kings ransom, but he is proven and on an extremely team friendly contract.

The idea though with a lot of trades is potential. Some people think that Foles could be Smith or he could be better. Yes, he could be worse or take longer, but a lot of trades are made with rose-colored glasses where the OC/HC/QB coach think they can get the maximum out of the guy - hence the Kolb trade and the Flynn deal last year. Some people think that you know what you get with Smith and that he's Smith or worse.

As far as people thinking that Smith is just Harbaugh's doing, I'm pretty sure Reid is confident that he can do what Harbaugh did and Turner has spoken on his belief in his developing QBs and RBs. So Smith might need to be coddled and he might need a good defense and running team, but it's not like he's going to fail with those two. KC may get there and the Browns have a lot of money, not sure though if they'll use it right. I say good not great because I think Smith can be passable with good and better with great, but is going to struggle with subpar in either. I still think it'd be better than Cassel if he has a good coach - though Cassel would be better than Cassel was, too with good coaching.

 

[deep9er]

The idea though with a lot of trades is potential. Some people think that Foles could be Smith or he could be better. Yes, he could be worse or take longer, but a lot of trades are made with rose-colored glasses where the OC/HC/QB coach think they can get the maximum out of the guy - hence the Kolb trade and the Flynn deal last year. Some people think that you know what you get with Smith and that he's Smith or worse.

As far as people thinking that Smith is just Harbaugh's doing, I'm pretty sure Reid is confident that he can do what Harbaugh did and Turner has spoken on his belief in his developing QBs and RBs. So Smith might need to be coddled and he might need a good defense and running team, but it's not like he's going to fail with those two. KC may get there and the Browns have a lot of money, not sure though if they'll use it right. I say good not great because I think Smith can be passable with good and better with great, but is going to struggle with subpar in either. I still think it'd be better than Cassel if he has a good coach - though Cassel would be better than Cassel was, too with good coaching.

not sure what the above it trying to say, but Alex Smith is as "proven" as he's gonna get. a team looking to obtain him is only looking for a starter, albeit "stop gap" starter. they need him to play decently from the get go, not 'develop' him?

how he does with a new team is almost predictable, he won't do well because that TEAM won't be good. only a poor team is gonna sign him as a bridge. as such, this team won't be giving up much.

 

[MHSL82]

not sure what the above it trying to say, but Alex Smith is as "proven" as he's gonna get. a team looking to obtain him is only looking for a starter, albeit "stop gap" starter. they need him to play decently from the get go, not 'develop' him?

how he does with a new team is almost predictable, he won't do well because that TEAM won't be good. only a poor team is gonna sign him as a bridge. as such, this team won't be giving up much.

That's just an opinion and a widely held one at that. It's fair and I can't say it won't happen. I think he can do better than some people say he will and I think KC is on the verge of making an improvement, with or without Smith.

Alex is not the starter for the 49ers and never will be, I don't feel like getting in an argument over what his future holds because as long as he's not the SF starter, it doesn't matter. I just hope for the best pick we can get. As for how he'll do, I'll just watch and see. I'll leave it at that. I've said all that I need to, qualified my positives for Smith, and we'll just see what happens.

 

[MHSL82]

I have read a few comments and articles on other sites and people keep suggesting that Alex could renegotiate either to less money or push back the deadline to make his trade more possible or to garner a better pick. While I would be open to this, I don't see why Alex would, unless he is convinced we'll keep him at this salary as a backup.

Alex doesn't care if we get a good trade for him. In fact, it would be in his interest that any team keeps all their high picks, not give them away (unless the high pick would allow them to pick a QB). He would actually like it if the standard pick for a developmental QB was gone in a trade. The team would have to reach or pass or get a worse round QB. Even a release would be good, too. Though it could bring in less or more money.

Pushing back the date could lower his FA money and opportunities as others fill their rosters and use their money, but it would also let him know the situation before he goes there. How bad would it be to go to KS and then have them draft Geno Smith number one overall? A reach would certainly be in the immediate plans (1 year or less). But then again, if he's traded to KS, it might dissuade KS from drafting Geno and it may take away the pick that they could pick him in a lower round. If signed as a free agent, and the only way would be release prior to the draft, it could also let his new team get talent around him and not sacrifice a pick.

I think Smith is interested in starting, not the money and he's interested in his future, not resigning to being a stop-gap - it could and likely will happen, but he won't walk in knowingly that it will happen if he can help it (though he knows it may or is likely). But while knowing the draft plans would be ideal, he won't risk not getting a job to wait for it.

 

[MHSL82]

Eagles: If you want Foles, pay up - ESPN

This Foles thing, unless it happens, is good for Smith. One, if he's released and they trade for Foles, he knows not to go there. If this lowers his trade value, if Foles is too high of a pick because Philly doesn't want to part with him, Alex will be released or got to KC for a low pick - retain high picks for Oline. His new team will have the money and retain their draft picks.

The best thing for Smith would be to be traded for a pick that a team would have liked to use on a developmental QB - force them to draft late but keep all picks that could help his new team in oline, RB, or defense. (I think a better WR corps would help, but given his hesitancy to throw deep, it would help less than oline, RB, and defense) The second best thing is for there to be no trade value and released and sign with whoever he wants. Obviously, money would be secondary, but he could get the same ballpark deal for two years. The worst would be to stay here or be kept for longer. Not talking about long-term backup or pay, I'm talking about immediate future.

 

[MHSL82]

As expected, there's a lot of posturing. When I said that Alex would like a low trade value, don't confuse that with low interest. Of course he wants high interest and the higher pick they give the more committed to he feels. But he'd rather have help, IMO. He could hope for the 7.5 being low enough for high interest but the draft pick too much. Or just strategy because they know we can't afford it.

 

[MHSL82]

I NEVER considered Buffalo as being in the running for Alex Smith, but some did. This seems to take them off the list - it'd be one thing if Jackson was already on the team and under contract, but to resign him for THAT much, I think this means no Alex.

Tarvaris Jackson Resigns with Buffalo

BTW, the Bills are awful in their contracts for QBs. If there was anyone to give Alex a big contract as a released FA or trade for a ransom, it'd be them or the Raiders.

 

[MHSL82]

This is a good balanced article, in my opinion.

It doesn't say, "wow, Smith is the most coveted FA QB out there" and it doesn't say "man, no one wants Smith."

It doesn't say "the 49ers owe Smith for his loyalty and professionalism" but it also discusses the possibility of some negative side effects of keeping him (I only believe in the money aspect, but it's good to state other things as possibilities).

I don't think it oversells Smith's value last year, but it also acknowledges some context to last year's free agency.

It also puts some perspective on his salary.

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The Five Myths About the 49ers and Alex Smith

Gentlemen, start your fibbing.

There are only two sentences you need to keep in mind as the Alex Smith Affair cranks up over the next four weeks: 1.) The 49ers want to trade Smith. 2.) Smith would rather be released and become a free agent. The rest is fluff designed to influence one of those outcomes.

To wit:

1.) The 49ers would be perfectly happy and perfectly capable of having both Colin Kaepernick and Smith on the roster this year.

That's been the party line for the last month or so. However, as The Merc's Tim Kawakami pointed out this weekend, the risk of locker-room turmoil outweighs the insurance of having two starter-quality quarterbacks on the roster. Smith played nice when he lost his job this past season, but it's difficult to see even Smith, the ultimate good soldier, biting his tongue under this scenario. It's also hard to see Smith allies like Joe Staley, Frank Gore and Vernon Davis not speaking out in favor of their buddy. Teams usually aren't willing to trade for a player who will be released anyway, which is why the 49ers must create the illusion that they will keep Smith. (See: any trade negotiation ever).

2.) There's a weak trade market for Smith.

This ultimately may be how this situation concludes, but it's far too early to report this now. There can be no trades until the start of the new league year on March 12. As of now, the consensus seems to be there are no sure-fire, top-flight quarterbacks in the draft. If that is reinforced at the combine, which begins this week, it will increase trade possibilities. The Chiefs have the first pick in the draft. In today's Kansas City Star, general manager Mike Dorsey said there's no consensus on whether there are any first-round quarterbacks much less No. 1 overall quarterbacks. The Chiefs could trade for the Eagles Nick Foles. Like the 49ers with Smith, the Eagles are saying they'd prefer to hold onto Foles to drive up his trade value.

3.) Smith was a free agent last season and there was no market for him.

Yes, Smith technically was a free agent in 2012, but there needs to be a large asterisk next to that designation. Everyone in the league assumed the 49ers would re-sign Smith because the 49ers said they would do so - Remember Jim Harbaugh-heart-Alex Smith at Pebble Beach last year? - and because Smith said he wanted to be back. It was only when the 49ers offered Smith a mediocre deal and pursued Peyton Manning that Smith figured he ought to make himself available on the open market. But that was nearly a week into free agency, and most teams already had made their plans.

4. The 49ers owe it to Smith to release him.

Last year's negotiations with Smith should make it perfectly clear that the 49ers do not make decisions based on relationships and that any player who thinks they do will get burned. The 49ers' only obligation - as they see it - is to make the team stronger. Which is why trading their one-time starting quarterback, and getting something in return, is their top priority.

5. Teams would be reluctant to trade for Smith because his salary is prohibitive.

Barring a sign-and-trade deal, a team that trades for Smith would get him for the next two years at base salaries of $7.5 million per year. In you-and-me money, that's a fortune. When it comes to NFL starting quarterbacks, it's a pittance. Smith's salary this year, for instance, ranked 20th among NFL starters.

- Matt Barrows

 

[MHSL82]

San Francisco 49ers ? Niner Insider Blog ? SFGate.com » Alex Smith, anyone? Chiefs GM doesn?t see clear-cut, first-round QB in draft

This could apply to getting Foles, it could also not be a true statement of what their situation is. Just passing along.

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“There is no quarterback where personnel guys can definitely say, ‘He’s a first-round pick,’” Dorsey said. “There were so many inconsistencies in the collective group. There was not one guy that stood up and said, ‘I’m the guy in the position this year.’ There really wasn’t one clear-cut guy.

“There are too many technical flaws, scheme flaws. There are so many different variables that there are a lot of people all over the place on naming the top four or five guys and who those guys would be.”

Assuming Dorsey’s assessment is genuine, it would seem likely Kansas City would look to a veteran to improve its quarterback play in 2013. In 2012, the Chiefs went 2-14 while Matt Cassel and free-agent-to-be Brady Quinn each started eight games. The duo combined to throw eight touchdowns, 20 interceptions and post a 63.9 passer rating.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I think this article is spot on:

Alex Smith to Chiefs Likely: Report | NBC Bay Area

Especially poignant:

So rather than spend its No. 1 overall draft pick on someone they're not thrilled with, the Chiefs may be compelled to trade the pick for a proven QB. And that coud be Smith.

Yes, the Chiefs are going to trade the first overall pick for a guy who, as the first overall pick, was effectively a bust. That sort of cracker-jack reporting is work of which a writer can really be proud. Bravo, Chris Roberts.

 

[Bemular]

I think this article is spot on:

Alex Smith to Chiefs Likely: Report | NBC Bay Area

Especially poignant:

So rather than spend its No. 1 overall draft pick on someone they're not thrilled with, the Chiefs may be compelled to trade the pick for a proven QB. And that coud be Smith.

Yes, the Chiefs are going to trade the first overall pick for a guy who, as the first overall pick, was effectively a bust. That sort of cracker-jack reporting is work of which a writer can really be proud. Bravo, Chris Roberts.

From a cost/benefit perspective it may not be as crazy as it seems. If Dorsey can get an 'as good or better' QB for ~1/3 the cost - then why not? There is almost nothing good being said about this year's QB class.

Trading the pick also makes sense but the only position worth #1 money is QB and maybe WR. So, this could very well be one of those years where nobody wants the #1 pick because the value just isn't there.

Just a couple thoughts

 

[MHSL82]

I think this article is spot on:

Alex Smith to Chiefs Likely: Report | NBC Bay Area

Especially poignant:

So rather than spend its No. 1 overall draft pick on someone they're not thrilled with, the Chiefs may be compelled to trade the pick for a proven QB. And that coud be Smith.

Yes, the Chiefs are going to trade the first overall pick for a guy who, as the first overall pick, was effectively a bust. That sort of cracker-jack reporting is work of which a writer can really be proud. Bravo, Chris Roberts.

Does he really mean a trade of the 1st overall for Smith? Or does he mean get Alex Smith for some other pick and with the first overall draft someone else besides QB? Or trade down?

He might not know football well and is trying to repeat the latter, not the former.

 

[deep9er]

Does he really mean a trade of the 1st overall for Smith? Or does he mean get Alex Smith for some other pick and with the first overall draft someone else besides QB? Or trade down?

He might not know football well and is trying to repeat the latter, not the former.

in just reading the article that would've been my take.....the 1st overall for Alex Smith. in reality just don't see it along with 99.9% of us here.

if we were the Chiefs what would we be thinking? yes, i would consider trading a lower pick for Alex Smith, not #1 overall.

regarding #1 overall..............i'd try to trade down but looks like no one wants it this draft? so if i HAD to stay put, i'd just go with my BPA. it might be a franchise LT and thats not so bad. obviously, the key is for that player to pan out.