Realistic trade scenarios for Alex Smith

[Crimsoncrew]

Anything above a 4th is a profit to the 49ers by my terms.

I'm hoping for a third or fourth, but we'll see. I don't really know what to expect with QBs these days. Teams seem to lose their heads sometimes. Here's to hoping we're the beneficiaries of that this year....

 

[Bemular]

I'm hoping for a third or fourth, but we'll see. I don't really know what to expect with QBs these days. Teams seem to lose their heads sometimes. Here's to hoping we're the beneficiaries of that this year....

Indeed!

 

[deep9er]

with so many draft picks as is, we have to consider higher pick(s) in 2014. given a choice i'd take it now, but don't think we'll be given choices?

in any case, we should be glad it isn't a good year for QB's, draft or free agency.

 

[MHSL82]

with so many draft picks as is, we have to consider higher pick(s) in 2014. given a choice i'd take it now, but don't think we'll be given choices?

in any case, we should be glad it isn't a good year for QB's, draft or free agency.

I'm not a draft guy so I won't say what is best, but I've heard us trading a few lower 2013 pick(s) and Alex, for a higher-than-normal 2014 pick (higher in round number, obviously we don't know where in the round for sure yet). Would Alex + a 6/7th for a 2014 2nd/3rd be better than a 4th/5th this year for Alex and no picks (note we might not need that this year but would be good ammo to move up)?

 

[Ray_Dogg]

According the NFL.Com the Jets came into the off-season ~$53m over the cap; the worst in the league.

Nfl.com was high in more ways than one.

 

[Bemular]

They were high in more ways than one.

LOL!! Touche Ray_Dogg!

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I'm not a draft guy so I won't say what is best, but I've heard us trading a few lower 2013 pick(s) and Alex, for a higher-than-normal 2014 pick (higher in round number, obviously we don't know where in the round for sure yet). Would Alex + a 6/7th for a 2014 2nd/3rd be better than a 4th/5th this year for Alex and no picks (note we might not need that this year but would be good ammo to move up)?

The general rule is that a pick the following year is worth one round lower than the current pick, e.g. a 4th rounder this year would be worth a 3rd rounder in '14. A 6th or 7th rounder isn't worth much, so I'd think Alex and one of those picks might net a 3rd next year vs. a 4th this year - if that's the going rate. That's not a bad thought you've got there re: packaging a few of our picks, though. It might be a little uncommon, but not altogether unheard of. Lord knows we need to package our later picks to create more value higher in the draft, and hopefully keep stockpiling future picks.

 

[Flyingiguana]

with so many draft picks as is, we have to consider higher pick(s) in 2014. given a choice i'd take it now, but don't think we'll be given choices?

in any case, we should be glad it isn't a good year for QB's, draft or free agency.

2014 would be fine unless we can walk away with a 3rd this year

 

[MHSL82]

If Alex Smith is still on the team April 1st, it would be a cruel April Fool's Day joke (for all involved) for the team to announce they've decided to keep Alex and trade Kaep to Arizona. Maybe it being Arizona would spoil the joke, because even that'd be so implausible, but even an obvious joke would be disrespectful to Smith. Wouldn't and shouldn't stop a random fan of April Fool's Day jokes, but should stop the organization.

 

[MHSL82]

You guys might get a laugh at this. It's a bit long, but it's true what he says.

How Rumors Get Started

 

[BINGO]

San Francisco 49ers ? Niner Insider Blog ? SFGate.com » 49ers shopping Alex Smith

 

[Ray_Dogg]

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported on SportsCenter Thursday that the 49ers are "highly, highly, highly unlikely" to release Alex Smith.
Although Smith would prefer to be cut so he can choose his next team, the 49ers are either going to trade him or keep him, depending on offers they receive after March 12. Smith is owed a $1 million roster bonus on April 1, but the Niners are in a good enough salary cap situation to absorb that payment if need be. Smith remains "highly" unlikely to be on San Francisco's Week 1 roster.

 

[Flyingiguana]

smith for revis

 

[Ray_Dogg]

Is Alex Smith behind door No. 2 for the Arizona Cardinals? | Insiders

 

[rmilia1]

I still dont get why Minnesota wouldnt make a play for Alex. Seems like a great fit. I mean unless they are 100% sold on Ponder ( which would make no sense). Vikes are a SB caliber team with a better QB

 

[MHSL82]

I still dont get why Minnesota wouldnt make a play for Alex. Seems like a great fit. I mean unless they are 100% sold on Ponder ( which would make no sense). Vikes are a SB caliber team with a better QB

If they had neither QB and both were free agents, I'd agree. But they have two pots cooking - 1) get the most they can and develop Ponder, back him with the support he needs, 2) be open to replacement of Ponder but be prepared for the consequences, whether that be cap, having to do a competition, awkward lockerroom after such support. If you only have one stove, it's difficult to cook both. Frankly, unless the Niners were willing to trade Alex for Ponder, I don't see how they could "cook" both. They could demote Ponder to develop him behind Smith, but actual play is the best way to give experience and learning to a QB. He wouldn't be able to do that in this situation.

Ponder is cheaper, he is younger, he's been in the system longer, there was a reason why they drafted him, and he has relationships and chemistry being built with the lockerroom. Smith is more expensive, he is older, it would be yet another new system, and he'd have to start over. Add in a draft pick. Add in needing to do a QB competition. Add in needing to trade Ponder. Or demote him after making the playoffs. The pay off, if there, won't be until next January. Then add in the fact that Smith might no perform the same next year and Ponder may improve. This team would be good for Smith - Peterson, respectable defense. Singletary's a negative, not a deal breaker as Sing will be in charge of LBs, not QBs, like he's supposed to be. I won't make grand statements about ceilings, because regardless of the player, I don't like talking in such finalities, but that's a factor. Most state we know Alex's but fewer state they know Ponder's.

Plus, an AFC team is preferential for the Niners if the picks are virtually the same. Not a deal breaker, as the Niners will take the best offer, just a factor. If Minnesota is as close as some suggest, this would make a difference perhaps.

 

[Bemular]

The shitty thing about losing Smith is losing an excellent back-up QB

 

[dredinis21]

Given his salary and the potential to get back draft picks, he is worth more to us OFF our roster then he is as a backup QB IMO.

 

[MHSL82]

The shitty thing about losing Smith is losing an excellent back-up QB

A few years ago, people would have turned that sentence into:

"The excellent thing about losing Smith is losing a shitty QB."

 

[MHSL82]

Given his salary and the potential to get back draft picks, he is worth more to us OFF our roster then he is as a backup QB IMO.

Yeah, but if Kaep gets injured, like all QBs can, we'd be worse off. From a SB statement, though, losing Kaep with or without Smith is about the same, especially without that 7.5 to spend elsewhere, absent something unforeseeable in sacrifices made all-around. In the end if you don't win the superbowl, no level of salvaging that kind of loss (Kaep injury) would be worth those draft picks. Only winning would and I wouldn't gamble on that. When Kaep wasn't playing, I could see it because Smith did have a chance, however small to win it. But with Kaep likely staying healthy, not worth it.