Rank your top 5 RBs, WRs, & QBs for next's years draft as of now!

[The Foot]

RBS
1. AP
2. Charles
3. McCoy
4. Geovanni
5. Lacy

WRS
1. Calvin
2. Gordon
3. Marshall or Jefferies
4. Green
5. ?

QBS
1. Manning
2. Rodgers
3. Brees
4. Tannehill (just kidding) Stafford
5. Rivers

 

[The Derski]

Put Randall Cobb for your 5th WR

 

[SmokingMonkey]

RBs - AP, Charles, McCoy, Forte, LeVeon Bell
WRs - Megatron, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, Gordon, Demaryius Thomas
QBs - Peyton, Rodgers, Brees, Stafford, Rivers


I wanted to throw at least 1 out of the ordinary player up there. I think if I was in the Rooney family, I would lock up any players that I wanted to keep right now. With a healthy O line, LeVeon Bell, Antonio Brown, and BigBen will finish 3rd in their division and get a chance to pick on some weaker teams in the AFC next year.

 

[Chef99]

RBS
1. AP
2. Charles
3. McCoy
4. Geovanni
5. Lacy

WRS
1. Calvin
2. Gordon
3. Marshall or Jefferies
4. Green
5. ?

QBS
1. Manning
2. Rodgers
3. Brees
4. Tannehill (just kidding) Stafford
5. Rivers

RBS
AP
Charles
McCoy
Marshawn Lynch, Baby!
Forte

QBS
Peyton
Rodgers
Brees
Stafford
Cam

WRS
Megatron
Marshall
Gordon
Andre Johnson
Keenan Allen

Top 5 RB Breakthrough Alert: Shane Vereen. Don't be surprised.

 

[averagejoe]

RB - McCoy, Forte, Charles, AP, Lynch
WR - Johnson, Marshall, Gordon, Thomas, Green
QB - Brees, Manning, Rogers, Stafford, Romo

 

[tlance]

The RBs are pretty obvious IMO. You can debate the order, but these 5 are in:
1. AP
2. Charles
3. McCoy
4. Forte
5. Lynch

WRs
1. Megatron
2. Gordon
3. A.J. Green
4. D. Thomas
5. Marshall

* Dez Bryant moves up to 3 if the Cowboys change OCs. The current regime just is not creative enough.

QBs
1. Peyton Manning
2. Drew Brees
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Cam Newton
5. Matthew Stafford

 

[molsaniceman]

RB--AP-Charles-Mccoy-Lynch--Forte

WR Megatron--Gordon--Marshall-Green--Jones

QB Rodgers--Peyton--Brees--Brady--Stafford

 

[tlance]

Put Randall Cobb for your 5th WR

Cobb shouldn't be top 10.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

RB - McCoy, Forte, Charles, AP, Lynch
WR - Johnson, Marshall, Gordon, Thomas, Green
QB - Brees, Manning, Rogers, Stafford, Romo

Hey Joe, you usually have these stats hangin around somewhere. Just out of curiosity, what are the odds of RB's in the top 10 this year being in the top 10 next year?

 

[averagejoe]

Hey Joe, you usually have these stats hangin around somewhere. Just out of curiosity, what are the odds of RB's in the top 10 this year being in the top 10 next year?

I don't think I traced that into the next fantasy year. I could, but it would take some time. I used to track the top-12 RB drafted (on average) and how they finished. It usually isn't good.

Unless you're referring to the optimism towards rookie RB?

Just based on the 2013 numbers so far, here are the consensus top-12 RB (courtesy of Fantasy Pros):

1. AP (currently 5)
2. Doug Martin
3. Jamaal Charles (currently 1)
4. CJ Spiller
5. LeSean McCoy (currently 2)
6. Arian Foster
7. Trent Richardson
8. Marshawn Lynch (currently 6)
9. Ray Rice
10. Alfred Morris (currently 11)
11. Matt Forte (currently 3)
12. Steven Jackson

As you can see, out of the first 12 RB drafted, only 6 - half (50%) - look like they will actually finish among the top 12 RB.

 

[averagejoe]

I did find some files where I reported on a specific league that I was a part of. But I was missing some years, or data was corrupt. But here's the gist:

2006 RB
5 of 12 finished in top 12 = 41%

2007 RB
3 of 12 finished in top 12 = 25%

2008 RB
missing data

2009 RB
5 of 12 finished in the top 12 = 41%

2010 RB
6 of 12 finished in the top 12 = 50%

2011 RB
7 of 12 finished in the top 12 = 58%

2012 RB
Corrupt data

Overall through all years = 43%

 

[Sam Sportboy]

I don't think I traced that into the next fantasy year. I could, but it would take some time. I used to track the top-12 RB drafted (on average) and how they finished. It usually isn't good.

Unless you're referring to the optimism towards rookie RB?

Just based on the 2013 numbers so far, here are the consensus top-12 RB (courtesy of Fantasy Pros):

1. AP (currently 5)
2. Doug Martin
3. Jamaal Charles (currently 1)
4. CJ Spiller
5. LeSean McCoy (currently 2)
6. Arian Foster
7. Trent Richardson
8. Marshawn Lynch (currently 6)
9. Ray Rice
10. Alfred Morris (currently 11)
11. Matt Forte (currently 3)
12. Steven Jackson

As you can see, out of the first 12 RB drafted, only 6 - half (50%) - look like they will actually finish among the top 12 RB.

Thanks Joe. Pretty sure you posted something like that last year too. Point is, who will take those other 6 spots? I also remember you (I think) posting something about how often these guys end up in the top 10-12 2 years in a row.

 

[averagejoe]

Thanks Joe. Pretty sure you posted something like that last year too. Point is, who will take those other 6 spots? I also remember you (I think) posting something about how often these guys end up in the top 10-12 2 years in a row.

That may have been lost on the "message board site that shalnt be named." But I'll check my 'puter.

 

[averagejoe]

I did find something I threw together on repeating in fantasy. But I only looked at the top 3 RB from 2002 through 2011. (Nine seasons.) But the point I was making of these 27 RB, was that only 4 had better numbers the following year. (15%)

Same for the top 3 WR position. Because of a tie, only 4 of 28 WR had better yardage numbers the next season. (14%)

It's a small sample size, but the point was that the guys that generally finish in the top 3 tend to fall out of the top 3 the next year. Except for 14-15% of them which is minimal. (But that doesn't mean they still can't finish in the top 12.)

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

AP, McCoy, Lynch, Charles, Forte
Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Stafford, Brady
Megatron, Green, Bryant, Marshall, Jones

 

[wilwhite]

Point is, who will take those other 6 spots?

This year they were taken by Moreno, Bush, Gore, Murray, Lacy and CJ1K (who I actually saw #12 in ADP over SJAX by a hair anyway).

Essentially: three vets on their old teams who stayed healthy and performed better than expected (Gore, Murray, CJ1K), two guys who were the right fit for their systems (Moreno and Bush), and one solid rookie (Lacy).

For future reference, CJ1K is a great matchup back; he was bad early with a tough schedule and good late with a fluffy schedule. He's been that way for a few years now.

 

[averagejoe]

Wil, where do you get your ADP information from?

I get mine here, but unfortunately the data adjusts throughout the season, to the point where today's data looks nothing like August.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Like this won't change a million times from now until then, but for shits and giggles...

QB
Peyton
Brees
Rodgers
Luck
Wilson

RB
McCoy
Peterson
Charles
Forte
Lacy

Calvin
Green
Demaryius
Gordon
Dez

 

[wilwhite]

Wil, where do you get your ADP information from?

I get mine here, but unfortunately the data adjusts throughout the season, to the point where today's data looks nothing like August.

I get them here, but it's the same problem. But I have them memorialized from September 1 for the sake of the rankings game (you can check the "Per ADP" column in the charts on that thread).

 

[Barilko]

Charles-Shady-AP-Forte-Martin(big bounce back and my risk play)

Megatron-AJ-JJ-Gordon-Dez

Brees-Peyton-Rogers-Stafford-Romo