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If you want a Super Bowl QB, Let’s talk about the Salary Cap and where to draft one!

Stymietee

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In the salary cap era beginning in 1994, the debate has raged over how best to build your team in order to become a winner of the chip or in serious contention in the quest of one.

The very first thing to have in mind is that there is a salary cap and players whose careers are limited (averaging 3.3 years) are looking for as much money as they can get in the time that they remain active. This means that it will literally be impossible to keep your team intact once those rookie deals end and those high-dollar demands hit you. This is expressly impactful when it comes to your QBs.

Next, you’d have to figure out the very best way to get there, and as I think about it there are ONLY three (3) ways to get this done, so let’s discuss them all going from the worse way to the very best, quickest way to do it.


1. The Brady Exception… (Worse)

History has given us a once-in-a-lifetime, perhaps never again example of a QB who has taken a much lower salary during his career in order for the team to get and keep a supporting cast and their franchise both SB championships and a contender status towards that goal for many seasons. If this is your preferred plan, understand that it has happened once in the salary cap era and likely never will be repeated again. Attempting to repeat this plan has the highest percentage fail rate of the three, so good luck with this effort! The number of QBs in the salary cap era with this level of success is one (1)

Tom Brady Round 6 / Pick 199)



2. Build the team / insert lower-round QB… (2nd Best)

For those of you insisting that “it can be done” I have zero counterarguments because you are 100% correct, it can be done! Now, when doing it this way you have to understand that winning in this manner comes with its own set of drawbacks associated with the salary cap. The primary one is deciding whether or not to overpay your team needy QB, superstar money when the time comes, or cut/trade him in a desire to maintain the “build team first” method. You do this while hoping that the next man up at the position has what your now departed former QB gave you, or you’ve overpaid him, AND face the real demands against your cap becoming too great with your core, necessary players. I must advise at this point that repeated success using this method has only been done twice in history (Warner and Wilson) plus one other time and that was long before the salary cap. (Joe Gibbs) Now, if you’re merely looking for that one-time hit, here’s a list of QBs who were involved in this sort of effort. (*Denotes SB season)

  • *1994 Stan Humphries (Round: 6 / Pick: 159)
  • *1995 Neil O’Donnell (Round: 3 / Pick: 70)
  • *1998 Chris Chandler ( Round: 3 / Pick: 76)
  • *1999 Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
  • *2002 Brad Johnson (Round: 9 / Pick: 227)
  • *2002 Rich Gannon ( Round: 4 / Pick: 98)
  • *2003 Jake Delhomme ( Undrafted)
  • *2005 Matt Hasselbeck ( Round: 6 / Pick: 187)
  • *2013Russell Wilson ( Round: 3 / Pick: 75)
  • *2017 Nick Foles ( Round: 3 / Pick: 88)


3. Get your QB, Add pieces, and remain relevant (Best)

There’s a reason why I insist upon drafting your QB in the first two rounds of the draft and this will be made apparent once I list the QBs involved in this method later. In the meantime similar to the other two methods, this way will also leave you with difficult choices involving your QB, the salary cap, and what to do when it’s time to pay up. If your QB has been as good as my list suggests in most cases, you’re going to have to pay him or risk falling back into the pack of mediocrity. That means not being able to pay and keep key players that contributed greatly to getting you to the chip. You’re going to take a hit either way but in return, you’re no longer searching to fill the most important position in the game and if you’re about your business, you’re drafting a QB somewhere near or soon after the mid-point of his career arc. As you can see, your chances of having an SB team greatly improve with a first or second-round QB. (*Denotes SB season)

  • *1994 Steve Young (1st supplemental) Pre-Cap SB app.1989, 1992
  • *1995 Troy Aikman (1st overall) Pre-Cap SB app1992,1993
  • *1996,1997 Brett Favre’ (Round: 2 / Pick: 33)
  • *1996 Drew Bledsoe (1st overall)
  • *1998, 1999 John Elway (1st overall) Pre-Cap SB app.1987,1988,1990
  • *1999 Steve McNair ( Round: 1 / Pick: 3)
  • *2000 Trent Dilfer (Round: 1 / Pick: 6)
  • *2000 Kerry Collins ( Round: 1 / Pick: 5)
  • *2004 Donavan McNabb ( Round: 1 / Pick: 2)
  • *2005,2008,2010 Ben Roethlisberger (Round: 1 / Pick: 11)
  • *2006,2009, 2013, 2015 Peyton Manning (1st Overall)
  • *2006 Rex Grossman ( Round: 1 / Pick: 22)
  • *2007, 2011 Eli Manning (1st Overall)
  • *2009 Drew Brees (Round: 2 / Pick: 32)
  • *2010 Aaron Rodgers (Round: 1 / Pick 24)
  • *2012 Joe Flacco ( Round: 1 / Pick: 18)
  • *2012 Colin Kaepernick (Round: 2 / Pick: 36)
  • *2015 Cam Newton (1st Overall)
  • *2016 Matt Ryan (Round: 1 / Pick: 3)
  • *2018 Jared Goff (1st Overall)
  • *2019,2020 Patrick Mahomes (Round: 1 / Pick: 10)
  • *2019 Jimmy Garoppolo (Round: 2 / Pick: 62)
  • *2021 Matthew Stafford (1st Overall)
  • *Joe Burrow (1st Overall)
 
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Sportster 72

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Two of the great teams of the last 30 years or even more have been teams like the Patriots and Bulls in NBA where a preeminent player ... Brady and Jordan took reduced salaries compared to the rest of the league. Brady had a super model wife who made more than him and Jordan had Nike.

Next best path is a QB on his rookie contract such as Burrow, Mahomes etc. Players like that remain good to great QBs but it changes the landscape due to the cap.

The real trick is to be able to buy the best groceries but stay within budget. Good rookie contracts are gold.
 

skinsdad62

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the key is to either way is to draft really really well so you have young cheap quality replacements and you have to manage the cap really really well . so you can fill holes . look at what KC does and try to emulate that
 

Niner Outlaw

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In the salary cap era beginning in 1994, the debate has raged over how best to build your team in order to become a winner of the chip or in serious contention in the quest of one.

The very first thing to have in mind is that there is a salary cap and players whose careers are limited (averaging 3.3 years) are looking for as much money as they can get in the time that they remain active. This means that it will literally be impossible to keep your team intact once those rookie deals end and those high-dollar demands hit you. This is expressly impactful when it comes to your QBs.

Next, you’d have to figure out the very best way to get there, and as I think about it there are ONLY three (3) ways to get this done, so let’s discuss them all going from the worse way to the very best, quickest way to do it.


1. The Brady Exception… (Worse)

History has given us a once-in-a-lifetime, perhaps never again example of a QB who has taken a much lower salary during his career in order for the team to get and keep a supporting cast and their franchise both SB championships and a contender status towards that goal for many seasons. If this is your preferred plan, understand that it has happened once in the salary cap era and likely never will be repeated again. Attempting to repeat this plan has the highest percentage fail rate of the three, so good luck with this effort! The number of QBs in the salary cap era with this level of success is one (1)

Tom Brady Round 6 / Pick 199)



2. Build the team / insert lower-round QB… (2nd Best)

For those of you insisting that “it can be done” I have zero counterarguments because you are 100% correct, it can be done! Now, when doing it this way you have to understand that winning in this manner comes with its own set of drawbacks associated with the salary cap. The primary one is deciding whether or not to overpay your team needy QB, superstar money when the time comes, or cut/trade him in a desire to maintain the “build team first” method. You do this while hoping that the next man up at the position has what your now departed former QB gave you, or you’ve overpaid him, AND face the real demands against your cap becoming too great with your core, necessary players. I must advise at this point that repeated success using this method has only been done twice in history (Warner and Wilson) plus one other time and that was long before the salary cap. (Joe Gibbs) Now, if you’re merely looking for that one-time hit, here’s a list of QBs who were involved in this sort of effort. (*Denotes SB season)

  • *1994 Stan Humphries (Round: 6 / Pick: 159)
  • *1995 Neil O’Donnell (Round: 3 / Pick: 70)
  • *1998 Chris Chandler ( Round: 3 / Pick: 76)
  • *1999 Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
  • *2002 Brad Johnson (Round: 9 / Pick: 227)
  • *2002 Rich Gannon ( Round: 4 / Pick: 98)
  • *2003 Jake Delhomme ( Undrafted)
  • *2005 Matt Hasselbeck ( Round: 6 / Pick: 187)
  • *2013Russell Wilson ( Round: 3 / Pick: 75)
  • *2017 Nick Foles ( Round: 3 / Pick: 88)


3. Get your QB, Add pieces, and remain relevant (Best)

There’s a reason why I insist upon drafting your QB in the first two rounds of the draft and this will be made apparent once I list the QBs involved in this method later. In the meantime similar to the other two methods, this way will also leave you with difficult choices involving your QB, the salary cap, and what to do when it’s time to pay up. If your QB has been as good as my list suggests in most cases, you’re going to have to pay him or risk falling back into the pack of mediocrity. That means not being able to pay and keep key players that contributed greatly to getting you to the chip. You’re going to take a hit either way but in return, you’re no longer searching to fill the most important position in the game and if you’re about your business, you’re drafting a QB somewhere near or soon after the mid-point of his career arc. As you can see, your chances of having an SB team greatly improve with a first or second-round QB. (*Denotes SB season)

  • *1994 Steve Young (1st supplemental) Pre-Cap SB app.1989, 1992
  • *1995 Troy Aikman (1st overall) Pre-Cap SB app1992,1993
  • *1996,1997 Brett Favre’ (Round: 2 / Pick: 33)
  • *1996 Drew Bledsoe (1st overall)
  • *1998, 1999 John Elway (1st overall) Pre-Cap SB app.1987,1988,1990
  • *1999 Steve McNair ( Round: 1 / Pick: 3)
  • *2000 Trent Dilfer (Round: 1 / Pick: 6)
  • *2000 Kerry Collins ( Round: 1 / Pick: 5)
  • *2004 Donavan McNabb ( Round: 1 / Pick: 2)
  • *2005,2008,2010 Ben Roethlisberger (Round: 1 / Pick: 11)
  • *2006,2009, 2013, 2015 Peyton Manning (1st Overall)
  • *2006 Rex Grossman ( Round: 1 / Pick: 22)
  • *2007, 2011 Eli Manning (1st Overall)
  • *2009 Drew Brees (Round: 2 / Pick: 32)
  • *2010 Aaron Rodgers (Round: 1 / Pick 24)
  • *2012 Joe Flacco ( Round: 1 / Pick: 18)
  • *2012 Colin Kaepernick (Round: 2 / Pick: 36)
  • *2015 Cam Newton (1st Overall)
  • *2016 Matt Ryan (Round: 1 / Pick: 3)
  • *2018 Jared Goff (1st Overall)
  • *2019,2020 Patrick Mahomes (Round: 1 / Pick: 10)
  • *2019 Jimmy Garoppolo (Round: 2 / Pick: 62)
  • *2021 Matthew Stafford (1st Overall)
  • *Joe Burrow (1st Overall)
Good post.

It's interesting to note that out of the 24 Qbs listed in #3--17 of them were drafted in the top 11 choices. So if you're gonna draft a SB QB, your most likely place to find them is at or near the top of Rd 1.

Like you said, Brady is an outlier and counting on finding your Qb in the late rounds is like deciding you don't need to save for retirement b/c you could still win the lottery.
 

duke1861

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Good post.

It's interesting to note that out of the 24 Qbs listed in #3--17 of them were drafted in the top 11 choices. So if you're gonna draft a SB QB, your most likely place to find them is at or near the top of Rd 1.

Like you said, Brady is an outlier and counting on finding your Qb in the late rounds is like deciding you don't need to save for retirement b/c you could still win the lottery.
Sty doesn't post crap...all of his posts are good.

His research is impeccable. He doesn't emotionally post like I do...LOL
 

Sportster 72

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Drew Brees - 2nd round
Russell Wilson - 3rd round
Nick Foles - 3rd round
Brad Johnson - 9th round
Kurt Warner - undrafted
Brady - 6th round

12 out of the last 22 SBs
 

skinsdad62

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Drew Brees - 2nd round
Russell Wilson - 3rd round
Nick Foles - 3rd round
Brad Johnson - 9th round
Kurt Warner - undrafted
Brady - 6th round

12 out of the last 22 SBs
add to it philly or 49ers will field a non 1st round qb in this one
 

Stymietee

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add to it philly or 49ers will field a non 1st round qb in this one
This is true but has it really gotten that bad that grasping at straws seems better than following a formula that is supported by historical and factual evidence?
 

skinsdad62

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This is true but has it really gotten that bad that grasping at straws seems better than following a formula that is supported by historical and factual evidence?
Well if I am looking at the statistical evidence it’s about 50/50 on how you go about it
 

Stymietee

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Well if I am looking at the statistical evidence it’s about 50/50 on how you go about it
Show your work...the overwhelming statistical evidence clearly shows that getting your QB early in round one and no later than early in round two leads to greater success in this salary cap era. Success being defined as making a SB and maintaining relevancy towards that goal.
 

skinsdad62

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Show your work...the overwhelming statistical evidence clearly shows that getting your QB early in round one and no later than early in round two leads to greater success in this salary cap era. Success being defined as making a SB and maintaining relevancy towards that goal.
Well again , 12 of 23 guys making the superbowl is about 50%
 

Stymietee

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Well again , 12 of 23 guys making the superbowl is about 50%
Brady counts 10 total over his career, and Brees was an early second-rounder, so it really wasn't 12 guys! By the way, the salary cap era began in 1994. The actual count is 10 out of 34
 
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skinsdad62

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Brady counts 10 total over his career, and Brees was an early second-rounder, so it really wasn't 12 guys! By the way, the salary cap era began in 1994. The actual count is 10 out of 34
What about Russell and Nick ? Or Warner ? It has to count if you repeat
 

Stymietee

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What about Russell and Nick ? Or Warner ? It has to count if you repeat
I included Russell and Warner in my summary of method #2, Nick was a one-timer!

However, I really don't mind doing this again

There have been 28 SBs since the start of the salary cap era (1994) and among them, these are the guys that were 3rd round QBs or later...

1. Stan Humphries (Round: 6 / Pick SB app. 1995
2. Neil O’Donnell (Round: 3 / Pick: 70) SB app. 1996
3. Chris Chandler ( Round: 3 / Pick: 76) SB app. 1999
4. Kurt Warner (Undrafted) SB app. 2000, 2002, 2009
5. Brad Johnson (Round: 9 / Pick: 227) Sb app. 2003
6. Rich Gannon ( Round: 4 / Pick: 98) SB app. 2003
7. Jake Delhomme ( Undrafted) SB app. 2004
8. Matt Hasselbeck ( Round: 6 / Pick: 187) SB app. 2006
9. Russell Wilson ( Round: 3 / Pick: 75) SB app. 2014, 2015
10. Nick Foles ( Round: 3 / Pick: 88) SB app. 2018

***11. Tom Brady ( Round 6/ Pick 199 The outlier) appeared in SBs 2002, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2015,2017, 2018, 2019, 2021

This totals out to 11 different QBs 3rd round or lower who have played in the SB during this era.
Russell Wilson 2014, 2015 and Kurt Warner 2000, 2002, and 2009 were the ONLY repeat visitors to the big game from this group.


Of the players who were 1st or early 2nd rounders playing in the big game since 1994, we have...

1. Steve Young (1st supplemental) Pre-Cap SB app.1990 Post Cap app. 1995
2. Troy Aikman (1st overall) Pre-Cap SB app1993, Post cap app.1994, 1996
3. Brett Favre’ (Round: 2 / Pick: 33) Post-cap app 1997, 1998
4. Drew Bledsoe (1st overall) Post-cap app. 1997
5. John Elway (1st overall) Pre-Cap SB app.1987,1988,1990 Post-cap app. 1998, 1999
6. Steve McNair ( Round: 1 / Pick: 3) Post-cap app. 2000
7. Trent Dilfer (Round: 1 / Pick: 6) Post-cap app. 2001
8. Kerry Collins ( Round: 1 / Pick: 5) Post-cap app. 2001
9. Donavan McNabb ( Round: 1 / Pick: 2) Post-cap app. 2005
10. Ben Roethlisberger (Round: 1 / Pick: 11) Post-cap app. 2006,2009, 2011
11. Peyton Manning (1st Overall) Post-cap app. 2007, 2010, 2014, 2016
12. Rex Grossman ( Round: 1 / Pick: 22) Post-cap app. 2007
13. Eli Manning (1st Overall) Post-cap app. 2008, 2012
14. Drew Brees (Round: 2 / Pick: 32) Post-cap app. 2010
15. Aaron Rodgers (Round: 1 / Pick 24) Post-cap app. 2011
16. Joe Flacco ( Round: 1 / Pick: 18) Post-cap app. 2013
17. Colin Kaepernick (Round: 2 / Pick: 36) Post-cap app. 2013
18. Cam Newton (1st Overall) Post-cap app. 2016
19. Matt Ryan (Round: 1 / Pick: 3) Post-cap app. 2017
20. Jared Goff (1st Overall) Post-cap app. 2019
21. Patrick Mahomes (Round: 1 / Pick: 10) Post-cap app. 2020, 2021
22. Jimmy Garoppolo (Round: 2 / Pick: 62) Post-cap app. 2020
23. Matthew Stafford (1st Overall) Post-cap app. 2022
24. Joe Burrow (1st Overall) Post-cap app. 2022

This totals out to 24 different first or early-second round QB who have played in the SB during this era.
Aikman, Favre, Elway, Roethlisberger, P. Manning, E. Manning, and Mahomes were all repeat visitors to the big game out of this group.

11/35 = 31% (3rd round or lower)

24/35 = 69% (1st round or early 2nd round)
 
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skinsdad62

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You know I forgot Farve
 

PDay8810

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I included Russell and Warner in my summary of method #2, Nick was a one-timer!

However, I really don't mind doing this again

There have been 28 SBs since the start of the salary cap era (1994) and among them, these are the guys that were 3rd round QBs or later...

1. Stan Humphries (Round: 6 / Pick SB app. 1995
2. Neil O’Donnell (Round: 3 / Pick: 70) SB app. 1996
3. Chris Chandler ( Round: 3 / Pick: 76) SB app. 1999
4. Kurt Warner (Undrafted) SB app. 2000, 2002, 2009
5. Brad Johnson (Round: 9 / Pick: 227) Sb app. 2003
6. Rich Gannon ( Round: 4 / Pick: 98) SB app. 2003
7. Jake Delhomme ( Undrafted) SB app. 2004
8. Matt Hasselbeck ( Round: 6 / Pick: 187) SB app. 2006
9. Russell Wilson ( Round: 3 / Pick: 75) SB app. 2014, 2015
10. Nick Foles ( Round: 3 / Pick: 88) SB app. 2018

***11. Tom Brady ( Round 6/ Pick 199 The outlier) appeared in SBs 2002, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2015,2017, 2018, 2019, 2021

This totals out to 11 different QBs 3rd round or lower who have played in the SB during this era.
Russell Wilson 2014, 2015 and Kurt Warner 2000, 2002, and 2009 were the ONLY repeat visitors to the big game from this group.


Of the players who were 1st or early 2nd rounders playing in the big game since 1994, we have...

1. Steve Young (1st supplemental) Pre-Cap SB app.1990 Post Cap app. 1995
2. Troy Aikman (1st overall) Pre-Cap SB app1993, Post cap app.1994, 1996
3. Brett Favre’ (Round: 2 / Pick: 33) Post-cap app 1997, 1998
4. Drew Bledsoe (1st overall) Post-cap app. 1997
5. John Elway (1st overall) Pre-Cap SB app.1987,1988,1990 Post-cap app. 1998, 1999
6. Steve McNair ( Round: 1 / Pick: 3) Post-cap app. 2000
7. Trent Dilfer (Round: 1 / Pick: 6) Post-cap app. 2001
8. Kerry Collins ( Round: 1 / Pick: 5) Post-cap app. 2001
9. Donavan McNabb ( Round: 1 / Pick: 2) Post-cap app. 2005
10. Ben Roethlisberger (Round: 1 / Pick: 11) Post-cap app. 2006,2009, 2011
11. Peyton Manning (1st Overall) Post-cap app. 2007, 2010, 2014, 2016
12. Rex Grossman ( Round: 1 / Pick: 22) Post-cap app. 2007
13. Eli Manning (1st Overall) Post-cap app. 2008, 2012
14. Drew Brees (Round: 2 / Pick: 32) Post-cap app. 2010
15. Aaron Rodgers (Round: 1 / Pick 24) Post-cap app. 2011
16. Joe Flacco ( Round: 1 / Pick: 18) Post-cap app. 2013
17. Colin Kaepernick (Round: 2 / Pick: 36) Post-cap app. 2013
18. Cam Newton (1st Overall) Post-cap app. 2016
19. Matt Ryan (Round: 1 / Pick: 3) Post-cap app. 2017
20. Jared Goff (1st Overall) Post-cap app. 2019
21. Patrick Mahomes (Round: 1 / Pick: 10) Post-cap app. 2020, 2021
22. Jimmy Garoppolo (Round: 2 / Pick: 62) Post-cap app. 2020
23. Matthew Stafford (1st Overall) Post-cap app. 2022
24. Joe Burrow (1st Overall) Post-cap app. 2022

This totals out to 24 different first or early-second round QB who have played in the SB during this era.
Aikman, Favre, Elway, Roethlisberger, P. Manning, E. Manning, and Mahomes were all repeat visitors to the big game out of this group.

11/35 = 31% (3rd round or lower)

24/35 = 69% (1st round or early 2nd round)
Thanks for coming back.
 

Sportster 72

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Brady counts 10 total over his career, and Brees was an early second-rounder, so it really wasn't 12 guys! By the way, the salary cap era began in 1994. The actual count is 10 out of 34
Bullshit, I went back to 2000 so my total holds up. It is fair to say Brady had 7 but you can also say Peyton had 2, Elie and 2, Ben had 2 Your comment holds no water.
 
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