If you want a Super Bowl QB, Let’s talk about the Salary Cap and where to draft one!

[Sportster 72]

Let's do:

Bart Starr - 17th round - 2 Super Bowls
Johnny Unitas - 9th round - 1 Super Bowl
Ken Stabler - 2nd round - 1 Super Bowl
Joe Montana - 3rd round .... the GOAT in his day - 3 Super Bowls
Jeff Hostetler - 3rd round -1 Super Bowl

Brady at 10 is bullshit. He won 7.

Now you have to clarify "early first round" because everyone was not early first round.

I'll give you more were 1st round picks than later but is early 1st round inside the top 5 picks? Inside the top 10 picks?

If you say 1st round picks it is a higher percentage but what about Roethlisberger?

Then my counter argument would be what about
Griffin
Haskins
Shuler
Snead
Marinovich,
Akili Smith
Jeff Georgh
Mayfield
Jamarcus Russell
Sam Bradford
David Carr
Tim Couch

J left a lot out, I just gave you the number 1 over all picks on many of those players. There were many more 1st rounds picks I could have named.

Picking a guy like Griffin who cost a ton of draft picks or a guy like Shuler because you had a high pick did not work out. Where will Lance end up?

Meanwhile grabbing a guy like Trent Green who you did not resign or a guy like Cousins who is inside the top 30 for NFL career passers (you said was maxed out, couldn't improve etc. etc.) were the best two QBs since Sonny.

 

[j_y19]

This is all interesting information, I guess. But it’s not germane to our situation. We don’t have a high 1st round pick. The only way we get there is to trade up. So, how many of those QBs taken in the first were taken by teams that spent multiple 1sts to take their qb? What would be interesting is an analysis of the QBs taken by Teams that traded a ton to get the 1st round pick and what happened to those teams during their rookie contracts? Did they make the SB? Did they fail because they couldn’t support the QB because they spent so much on one player? This is the situation we always find ourselves in.
also, these analyses, near as I can tell, don’t take into consideration the failure rate Of QBs taken in the first.
I agree that drafting is the best way to land your affordable Qb. But the real question is does It make sense to give up significant valuable resources to do so.

 

[skinsdad62]

This is all interesting information, I guess. But it’s not germane to our situation. We don’t have a high 1st round pick. The only way we get there is to trade up. So, how many of those QBs taken in the first were taken by teams that spent multiple 1sts to take their qb? What would be interesting is an analysis of the QBs taken by Teams that traded a ton to get the 1st round pick and what happened to those teams during their rookie contracts? Did they make the SB? Did they fail because they couldn’t support the QB because they spent so much on one player? This is the situation we always find ourselves in.
also, these analyses, near as I can tell, don’t take into consideration the failure rate Of QBs taken in the first.
I agree that drafting is the best way to land your affordable Qb. But the real question is does It make sense to give up significant valuable resources to do so.

There are 2 ways to go about this , an elite qb can make up for a lot of things but how many are there ? 2-3 tops . Another 2-3,are on the cusp and another 2-3 are in decline , the rest are avg and below so the other alternative is to have a stronger team to support a lesser qb

 

[reptec101]

We had a QB that was gonna keep us relevant but this organization opted to get rid of him and bring in retreads and has-beens. Went even as far as drafting in the first round Jamarcus Russell v2 with Haskins. This organization hasn't a clue on how to win. Snyder is all about marketing. I understand why we had to change our name, not because it was offensive but because FA weren't ever gonna play for us under the media driven stigma of a racist franchise. We have undergone a dramatic facelift but the soul of the now Commanders remains the same. Until we get better ownership this organization will remain in the same place we have spent our falls and winters the last 3 decades running. I imagine soon another 1st rounder will grace the field soaring our hopes and dreams,,, but brace yourself... Snyder still looms. So until then... and I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[j_y19]

We had a QB that was gonna keep us relevant but this organization opted to get rid of him and bring in retreads and has-beens. Went even as far as drafting in the first round Jamarcus Russell v2 with Haskins. This organization hasn't a clue on how to win. Snyder is all about marketing. I understand why we had to change our name, not because it was offensive but because FA weren't ever gonna play for us under the media driven stigma of a racist franchise. We have undergone a dramatic facelift but the soul of the now Commanders remains the same. Until we get better ownership this organization will remain in the same place we have spent our falls and winters the last 3 decades running. I imagine soon another 1st rounder will grace the field soaring our hopes and dreams,,, but brace yourself... Snyder still looms. So until then... and I'll believe it when I see it.

I put the odds of Snyder selling at this time around 50-50. It makes no financial sense for him to sell now.

 

[chillerdab]

It does if he feels like he wont be able to turn a profit and/or owning the team is too taxing.

If the investigations disappear if he sells the team, AND he makes a cool billion or two on sale, there’s at least an equal amount of incentive to sell.

 

[j_y19]

It does if he feels like he wont be able to turn a profit and/or owning the team is too taxing.

If the investigations disappear if he sells the team, AND he makes a cool billion or two on sale, there’s at least an equal amount of incentive to sell.

The problem he has is where to park a few billion and make the same return. Fat chance.

 

[Skin'EmAll]

i'll always build using #2

 

[Stymietee]

i'll always build using #2

If you don't mind my asking...why #2?

It seems to me that your choice is the preferred way for some people on this board, I just wonder what's the rationale.

 

[j_y19]

Sty, it’s not necessarily preferred, just realistic.

 

[Stymietee]

Sty, it’s not necessarily preferred, just realistic.

So the perpetual middle-of-the-pack draft finishes have relegated us to hoping to find our guy in the later rounds? I understand!

 

[Sportster 72]

I understand the pick your guy in the 1st two rounds, it is the method that works more often. But while you created a great list of QBs who worked out you did not create a list of all the 1st and 2nd QB picks that didn't work. You have to paint the entire picture.

 

[DHoey]

In the salary cap era beginning in 1994, the debate has raged over how best to build your team in order to become a winner of the chip or in serious contention in the quest of one.

The very first thing to have in mind is that there is a salary cap and players whose careers are limited (averaging 3.3 years) are looking for as much money as they can get in the time that they remain active. This means that it will literally be impossible to keep your team intact once those rookie deals end and those high-dollar demands hit you. This is expressly impactful when it comes to your QBs.

Next, you’d have to figure out the very best way to get there, and as I think about it there are ONLY three (3) ways to get this done, so let’s discuss them all going from the worse way to the very best, quickest way to do it.


1. The Brady Exception… (Worse)

History has given us a once-in-a-lifetime, perhaps never again example of a QB who has taken a much lower salary during his career in order for the team to get and keep a supporting cast and their franchise both SB championships and a contender status towards that goal for many seasons. If this is your preferred plan, understand that it has happened once in the salary cap era and likely never will be repeated again. Attempting to repeat this plan has the highest percentage fail rate of the three, so good luck with this effort! The number of QBs in the salary cap era with this level of success is one (1)

Tom Brady Round 6 / Pick 199)



2. Build the team / insert lower-round QB… (2nd Best)

For those of you insisting that “it can be done” I have zero counterarguments because you are 100% correct, it can be done! Now, when doing it this way you have to understand that winning in this manner comes with its own set of drawbacks associated with the salary cap. The primary one is deciding whether or not to overpay your team needy QB, superstar money when the time comes, or cut/trade him in a desire to maintain the “build team first” method. You do this while hoping that the next man up at the position has what your now departed former QB gave you, or you’ve overpaid him, AND face the real demands against your cap becoming too great with your core, necessary players. I must advise at this point that repeated success using this method has only been done twice in history (Warner and Wilson) plus one other time and that was long before the salary cap. (Joe Gibbs) Now, if you’re merely looking for that one-time hit, here’s a list of QBs who were involved in this sort of effort. (*Denotes SB season)

• *1994 Stan Humphries (Round: 6 / Pick: 159)
• *1995 Neil O’Donnell (Round: 3 / Pick: 70)
• *1998 Chris Chandler ( Round: 3 / Pick: 76)
• *1999 Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
• *2002 Brad Johnson (Round: 9 / Pick: 227)
• *2002 Rich Gannon ( Round: 4 / Pick: 98)
• *2003 Jake Delhomme ( Undrafted)
• *2005 Matt Hasselbeck ( Round: 6 / Pick: 187)
• *2013Russell Wilson ( Round: 3 / Pick: 75)
• *2017 Nick Foles ( Round: 3 / Pick: 88)

3. Get your QB, Add pieces, and remain relevant (Best)

There’s a reason why I insist upon drafting your QB in the first two rounds of the draft and this will be made apparent once I list the QBs involved in this method later. In the meantime similar to the other two methods, this way will also leave you with difficult choices involving your QB, the salary cap, and what to do when it’s time to pay up. If your QB has been as good as my list suggests in most cases, you’re going to have to pay him or risk falling back into the pack of mediocrity. That means not being able to pay and keep key players that contributed greatly to getting you to the chip. You’re going to take a hit either way but in return, you’re no longer searching to fill the most important position in the game and if you’re about your business, you’re drafting a QB somewhere near or soon after the mid-point of his career arc. As you can see, your chances of having an SB team greatly improve with a first or second-round QB. (*Denotes SB season)

• *1994 Steve Young (1st supplemental) Pre-Cap SB app.1989, 1992
• *1995 Troy Aikman (1st overall) Pre-Cap SB app1992,1993
• *1996,1997 Brett Favre’ (Round: 2 / Pick: 33)
• *1996 Drew Bledsoe (1st overall)
• *1998, 1999 John Elway (1st overall) Pre-Cap SB app.1987,1988,1990
• *1999 Steve McNair ( Round: 1 / Pick: 3)
• *2000 Trent Dilfer (Round: 1 / Pick: 6)
• *2000 Kerry Collins ( Round: 1 / Pick: 5)
• *2004 Donavan McNabb ( Round: 1 / Pick: 2)
• *2005,2008,2010 Ben Roethlisberger (Round: 1 / Pick: 11)
• *2006,2009, 2013, 2015 Peyton Manning (1st Overall)
• *2006 Rex Grossman ( Round: 1 / Pick: 22)
• *2007, 2011 Eli Manning (1st Overall)
• *2009 Drew Brees (Round: 2 / Pick: 32)
• *2010 Aaron Rodgers (Round: 1 / Pick 24)
• *2012 Joe Flacco ( Round: 1 / Pick: 18)
• *2012 Colin Kaepernick (Round: 2 / Pick: 36)
• *2015 Cam Newton (1st Overall)
• *2016 Matt Ryan (Round: 1 / Pick: 3)
• *2018 Jared Goff (1st Overall)
• *2019,2020 Patrick Mahomes (Round: 1 / Pick: 10)
• *2019 Jimmy Garoppolo (Round: 2 / Pick: 62)
• *2021 Matthew Stafford (1st Overall)
• *Joe Burrow (1st Overall)

Option 3 is labeled “Get your Qb, add pieces and remain relevant. But I see a few on that list that were built and then brought a QB in……

I think to be fair, you should have Broke that group into 2

 

[Skin'EmAll]

So the perpetual middle-of-the-pack draft finishes have relegated us to hoping to find our guy in the later rounds? I understand!

I may have went outside the lines, upon first read, I didn't limit my response to a late round pick but also a free agent/trade plug in.
That was my logic behind #2 -- The 49ers did it with Jimmy G, Bucs with Brady, Stafford and the Rams.
the 49ers didn't win the superbowl, but they built one heck of team so when they land/landed a capable QB -- it resulted in a superbowl trip and perhaps they are headed back early the 2020's. Drafting Lance.....may have been a botched move

 

[Stymietee]

Option 3 is labeled “Get your Qb, add pieces and remain relevant. But I see a few on that list that were built and then brought a QB in……

I think to be fair, you should have Broke that group into 2

List them,
BTW; the entire post is about when and where it's best to get our long term QB. It is the title of the post.

 

[Stymietee]

We had a QB that was gonna keep us relevant but this organization opted to get rid of him and bring in retreads and has-beens. Went even as far as drafting in the first round Jamarcus Russell v2 with Haskins. This organization hasn't a clue on how to win. Snyder is all about marketing. I understand why we had to change our name, not because it was offensive but because FA weren't ever gonna play for us under the media driven stigma of a racist franchise. We have undergone a dramatic facelift but the soul of the now Commanders remains the same. Until we get better ownership this organization will remain in the same place we have spent our falls and winters the last 3 decades running. I imagine soon another 1st rounder will grace the field soaring our hopes and dreams,,, but brace yourself... Snyder still looms. So until then... and I'll believe it when I see it.

Who?

 

[Sportster 72]

Too early to declare all busts but:

Zach Wilson
Trey Lance
Justin Fields
Mac Jones
Jordan Love
Kyler Murray
Dwayne Haskins
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Mitchell Tribusky
Carson Wentz
Paxton Lynch
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
EJ Manual
Robert Griffin
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow

2nd round:
Kyle Trask
Drew Lock
Deshone Kizer
Christian Hackenburg
Brock Osweiler
Colin Kapernick
Jimmy Clausen

This is a list of largely failed QBs drafted in round 1 or 2 since 2010. Some of the newer ones could improve.

I think this list trumps the successful ones.

 

[Sportster 72]

So the perpetual middle-of-the-pack draft finishes have relegated us to hoping to find our guy in the later rounds? I understand!

Two first round picks since 2010:

One is in the broadcast booth a 2nd overall pick and one sadly is dead.

One guy was drafted in the 4th round and is now inside the top 30 of career passers in several categories.

 

[j_y19]

I understand the pick your guy in the 1st two rounds, it is the method that works more often. But while you created a great list of QBs who worked out you did not create a list of all the 1st and 2nd QB picks that didn't work. You have to paint the entire picture.

Exactly.

 

[j_y19]

Too early to declare all busts but:

Zach Wilson
Trey Lance
Justin Fields
Mac Jones
Jordan Love
Kyler Murray
Dwayne Haskins
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Mitchell Tribusky
Carson Wentz
Paxton Lynch
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
EJ Manual
Robert Griffin
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow

2nd round:
Kyle Trask
Drew Lock
Deshone Kizer
Christian Hackenburg
Brock Osweiler
Colin Kapernick
Jimmy Clausen

This is a list of largely failed QBs drafted in round 1 or 2 since 2010. Some of the newer ones could improve.

I think this list trumps the successful ones.

So here is the question. Why such a high failure rate at this position in those first 2 rounds?
I believe it is a couple of things. First, desperate teams over reached. the reality is that Success in college means little in the NFL. The skill set for a NFL qb is different than in college. the gap between great college players and average college players is significant. We saw that with Griffin. He just so much faster than his opponents that the ruled. Not so much in the NFL.

Second, and maybe more important, the team failed to provide support with quality players around the young QB. To many teams use their draft capital to take a QB, but he never had a chance as the supporting players just weren’t there to aid in his development. Times have changed. With FA, a highly drafted QB no longer has the luxury of sitting and learning. No, their classroom is on the field.

I think what Kyle has done in SF is the blueprint for building a team in the modern NFL. Make the rest of the team as strong as possible to support a developing QB. Draft a QB every year who Has the skill sets to run your offense. If you have a high draft pick and your team is ready, by all means, use it on your QB. let him play, but since the supporting staff is so strong, he doesn’t need to be “the guy” day one. He can be a game manager for a period until he learns. Most importantly, he is not running for his life. But the most important aspect of this plan is to DRAFT A QB EVERY YEAR. The failure rate is too high to put all your chickens in in one pot.