Series Thread: Rangers Travel to Houston For Three Games July 12-14

[saddles]

This will be an important series for both teams. The Rangers could find themselves 7 or 8 games out in the division and maybe worse in the wildcard race if they get swept.

This Sunday is the beginning of the MLB draft, taking place in Fort Worth at Cowtown Coliseum.

The Rangers still haven't listed a pitcher for Sunday's game, even though it is Jon Gray's spot. This was their tweet a few minutes ago.

Probable pitching matchups for this weekend's series against the Houston Astros:

Fri. - LHP Andrew Heaney vs. RHP Hunter Brown
Sat. - RHP Nathan Eovaldi vs. RHP Spencer Arrighetti
Sun. - TBA vs. RHP Ronel Blanco

 

[saddles]

Jose Corniell, one of our best pitching prospects, had elbow discomfort this last March and has been unable to pitch all year. Finally, last week, he had Tommy John surgery. Now he will be out until the end of next year.

 

[Kelleyman]

Jose Corniell, one of our best pitching prospects, had elbow discomfort this last March and has been unable to pitch all year. Finally, last week, he had Tommy John surgery. Now he will be out until the end of next year.

Think he is rostered too. If so very tough

 

[saddles]

From Evan Drellich:

The objection deadline in the Diamond Sports RSN bankruptcy case has been pushed back almost a week, from July 18 to July 24. The July 29 confirmation hearing — the big bankruptcy showdown, if you will — hasn't been changed.

 

[saddles]

There are only 3 teams with a weaker strength of schedule left that the Rangers have. One of those is the Mariners.

 

[saddles]

This happened to Mitch Bratt tonight in the 4th inning.

 

[saddles]

From Shawn McFarland:

Third baseman Josh Smith — when asked to describe the way in which the Rangers have responded to their recent challenges — might’ve inadvertently nailed it.

“It is kind of now or never,” the breakout infielder said.

The “now” of it all: The Rangers, with three games left to play until the All-Star break, trail the Seattle Mariners by six-and-a-half games in the American League West and are seven games back of the third AL Wild Card spot. They have a 9.6% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, and have a better shot at a division title than an at-large bid.

The “never” of it all: Texas is in the midst of a decisive stretch that will all but certainly determine whether they buy or sell at the July 31 deadline (or sooner, should they be swayed far enough in one direction or another to be first in line to either market). If the Rangers close the gap between themselves and the division leaders in these next two weeks, the front office would theoretically be more inclined to bolster the roster. If the chasm were to expand and make a second-half comeback all the more unlikely, then the focus might turn toward amplifying Texas’ chances next season.

“We know what’s at stake,” Smith said. “If we don’t win these games, then this team is probably going to look a little different. I think we’re just playing for each other and trying to get hot at the right time.”

“I think it’s just that sense of urgency, guys know what’s at stake,” Smith said. “I know guys here like playing with each other, so I think that might have something to do with it.”

 

[saddles]

Great night for Mitch Bratt, despite the umpire he had behind the plate.

74% strikes

 

[Senator_fan]

From Shawn McFarland:

The “now” of it all: The Rangers, with three games left to play until the All-Star break, trail the Seattle Mariners by six-and-a-half games in the American League West and are seven games back of the third AL Wild Card spot. They have a 9.6% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, and have a better shot at a division title than an at-large bid.

That’s FanGraphs which can change like the wind.

Bill James formula for expected W/L record right now is:

Hou 51-41
Tex 48-45
Sea 48-46

This means Hou and Tex are Under performing and Sea is Over performing.

 

[saddles]

That’s FanGraphs which can change like the wind.

Bill James formula for expected W/L record right now is:

Hou 51-41
Tex 48-45
Sea 48-46

This means Hou and Tex are Under performing and Sea is Over performing.

Well, unless Bill James is umderperforming.

 

[saddles]

From Scott Lucas:

Justin Foscue hit three balls at least 100 MPH, one of which traveled 417 feet. Zeke Duran had his first noteworthy game since being optioned. Back in 2015, Rougned Odor was shipped to Round Rock after a .144/.252/.233 opening month, and after a month in AAA, he enjoyed his most fruitful period at the plate. Unfortunately, for a while that instilled the idea that any struggling batter could be not just fixed but improved in short order with the "Odor treatment." Not to say I'm pessimistic about Duran, but the process is more complicated than batting coach Matt Lawson sprinkling magic dust on a batter, although I can't say I've discussed it with him.

 

[Senator_fan]

Well, unless Bill James is umderperforming.

Baseball Reference has refined the Bill James formula to make it more accurate but I don’t know how to do the calculation.

The expected W-L makes for a good predictor of performance in mid-season. If a team has a 40-25 record, but a Pythagorean winning percentage at or below .500, it should not be surprising when this team's record drops as they start losing close games. In fact, expected W-L correctly predicted the fate of the 2005 Washington Nationals. On July 5 of that season, Washington was 19 games over .500 and 4 1/2 games ahead of second place, but had a Pythagorean W% of exactly .500. They went 30-49 the rest of the season to finish at .500 (four games ahead of their final expected W-L).

 

[saddles]

The Astros won. The Mariners are winning big. The Red Sox won.

 

[saddles]

7 back in the division.
7.5 back in wildcard

 

[saddles]

Brock Porter pitched in the ACL tonight.

Walk, HBP, Walk, Walk, Strike Out

That was it. He gave up 3 runs in one third of an inning.

 

[saddles]

Possible Rangers Pick Preview

RHP Ryan Sloan, York Community​

Sloan is listed at 6-4, 220 pounds. He is a big guy with a strong lower half. He is another Gatorade high school player of the year, this time in Illinois. He was also named Prep Baseball Illinois Player of the Year.

He was very impressive this year. He threw 46 innings and struck out 90 batters, walking only 5, and allowed only 2 earned runs on the year, giving him an ERA of 0.30. He is a big guy with a strong lower half.

His fastball is mostly in the 93-96 mph range, but he has hit 99 mph. MLB.com’s writeup about him says he has, “three different pitches that could grade as plus once he’s fully developed.” They grade his fastball and changeup both as a 60, while they grade his slider as a 55. The writeup goes on to say, “He has a more advanced changeup than most prepsters, throwing hitters off balance with a mid-80s cambio that fades and sinks. His low-80s slider is nearly as good, featuring two-plane depth and some horizontal action as well.” His changeup fades and sinks.

I have read where some think Sloan is destined to become a mid-rotation starter and others say he could be an upper echelon starter in the big leagues.

 

[saddles]

From mlb.com:

Does an injured or otherwise unavailable player have to be replaced by a player from the same position?
Not necessarily. Pitchers are replaced by pitchers. But on the position-player front, we've seen situations like infielders replacing outfielders and vice versa.

 

[Duane1952]

Brock Porter pitched in the ACL tonight.

Walk, HBP, Walk, Walk, Strike Out

That was it. He gave up 3 runs in one third of an inning.

That’s not good.

 

[scotsman#1948]

MLBTR has released their top 50 trade possibilities (no Rangers listed in the top 50): not going to list them just those i would think the Rangers should look at.

4. Tanner Scott LHP Miami
13. Brent Rooker DH Oak
14. Kyle Finnegan RHP Wash
15. Hunter Harvey RHP Wash
16. Michael Kopech RHP CWS
17. Pete Fairbanks RHP TB
18. Jesse Winkler OF Wash
21. Lane Thomas OF Wash
24. Elias Diaz C Colo
33. Dylan Floro RHP Oak
46. Mason Miller RHP Oak
47. Lucas Erceg RHP Oak
48. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B/DH Tor

 

[jaar01]

Not a good time to play the Astros. 16-4 in last 20. 9 straight wins at home.

And the Rangers, at minimum, need 2 out of 3. But honestly need a sweep to stay in this thing.

And then we get 3 games with the Orioles right after the break.

I'll just say this: by next Sunday, July 21, we will know if we are sellers or not.