Please explain this to me

[Gator]

Sagarin, Mr computer God has the following.

Team "A" has played 2 opponents with zero teams ranked in the Sagarin Top 30 yet "A" has the 8th best SOS according to Sagarin SOS calculations.

Team B has played 2 opponents with BOTH teams in the Sagarin Top 30 and with ONE ranked in the Sagarin Top 10 but "B" has only the 19th best SOS according to the Guru's SOS calculations.

What on earth is involved in his SOS calculation?

Before you say his SOS is for the whole year, I will tell you team "A" is North Dakota State an FCS school.

 

[KansasSooner]

If I remember correctly it is opponents + opponent's opponents. It's two tiered like the NCAA basketball SOS factor. The NCAA basketball formula is 2/3*opponents + 1/3*opponent's opponents. Of course it's been a while since I read his formula so I may not be entirely right nor do I know what weighting factors he uses.

 

[Gator]

If I remember correctly it is opponents + opponent's opponents. It's two tiered like the NCAA basketball SOS factor. The NCAA basketball formula is 2/3*opponents + 1/3*opponent's opponents. Of course it's been a while since I read his formula so I may not be entirely right nor do I know what weighting factors he uses.

Interesting idea but that can't be it.

Team “A is North Dakota State
NDSU played (Kansas State and Ferris State) x 2/3
(KSU has played Louisiana-Lafayette + Ferris State has played no one) x 1/3


Team “B is Virginia
Virginia played (BYU and Oregon) x 2/3
(BYU played Texas + Oregon played Nicholls State) x 1/3

I’m pretty sure than the combo of #30 BYU and #2 Oregon > the combo of #34 KSU and DII Ferris State.

I’m also pretty sure that the combo of #24 Texas and #191 Nicholls State > the combo of # 89 La-La and no one).

The #'s are Sagarin's own ratings #'s.

My gut feeling is that Sagarin is using a Ouija Board to divine both his rankings and his SOS.

 

[4down20]

Sounds like it's looking at the entire year, which comes out to be averaged.

 

[KansasSooner]

Interesting idea but that can't be it.

Team “A is North Dakota State
NDSU played (Kansas State and Ferris State) x 2/3
(KSU has played Louisiana-Lafayette + Ferris State has played no one) x 1/3


Team “B is Virginia
Virginia played (BYU and Oregon) x 2/3
(BYU played Texas + Oregon played Nicholls State) x 1/3

I’m pretty sure than the combo of #30 BYU and #2 Oregon > the combo of #34 KSU and DII Ferris State.

I’m also pretty sure that the combo of #24 Texas and #191 Nicholls State > the combo of # 89 La-La and no one).

The #'s are Sagarin's own ratings #'s.

My gut feeling is that Sagarin is using a Ouija Board to divine both his rankings and his SOS.

Yeah but you're using the weights the NCAA uses in basketball. I don't know what weights, if any, he uses. And it's not their ranking it's their win/loss percentage.

 

[Gator]

Sounds like it's looking at the entire year, which comes out to be averaged.

I thought of that but remember that NDSU is FCS so using their yearly FCS schedule CAN'T pull them up to #8 when compared to FBS schools. Sagarin has NDSU schedule ranked as his #8 schedule!!!

So far NDSU has played KSU and DII Ferris State and that schedule is supposed to be tougher than UVa who has played BYU and Oregon.

 

[KansasSooner]

Hate to tell you this but Sagarin puts all Div 1 schools into his calculations, FCS and FBS. The best thing to do is not worry about it until 6 games have been played as Sagarin even admits the rankings are not really reliable until then.

 

[4down20]

I thought of that but remember that NDSU is FCS so using their yearly FCS schedule CAN'T pull them up to #8 when compared to FBS schools. Sagarin has NDSU schedule ranked as his #8 schedule!!!

So far NDSU has played KSU and DII Ferris State and that schedule is supposed to be tougher than UVa who has played BYU and Oregon.

Well Sagrin doesn't put the FBS and FCS in different categories the way I do, so I don't know. I will say that I personally believe the win% based SoS formulas are complete crap and I would never in a million years consider such measures for my stuff. Cumulative win% sucks too, but I'm pretty sure the BCS forces some of this idiocy.

 

[KansasSooner]

Well Sagrin doesn't put the FBS and FCS in different categories the way I do, so I don't know. I will say that I personally believe the win% based SoS formulas are complete crap and I would never in a million years consider such measures for my stuff. Cumulative win% sucks too, but I'm pretty sure the BCS forces some of this idiocy.

No, it is entirely left up to the discretion of the programmer. There was a good article about six or so years back about all the BCS computer programs and I think only 2 of them used SOS. Two declined to even discuss their methods so it could be more.

 

[KansasSooner]

What's funny is the NCAA actually has two SOS listings but from the article I took away that nobody really agrees on how SOS should be calculated thus one poll's SOS may not be the same as another poll's SOS.

 

[Gator]

Yeah but you're using the weights the NCAA uses in basketball. I don't know what weights, if any, he uses. And it's not their ranking it's their win/loss percentage.

Yes, I don't KNOW what his weighting are, BUT if in the first level UVa's schedule is better than NDSU's and in the second level UVa's schedule is better than NDSU's THEN I don't see how on earth NDSU's schedule can be deemed better than UVa's schedule regardless of weightings.

Level one: Uva's has played BYU and Oregon while NDSU has played KSU and DII school Ferris State.

Level two: UVa's opponents have played Texas and FCS Nicholls State while NDSU's opponents have played Louisiana-Lafayette and no one.

 

[KansasSooner]

Yes, I don't KNOW what his weighting are, BUT if in the first level UVa's schedule is better than NDSU's and in the second level UVa's schedule is better than NDSU's THEN I don't see how on earth NDSU's schedule can be deemed better than UVa's schedule regardless of weightings.

Level one: Uva's has played BYU and Oregon while NDSU has played KSU and DII school Ferris State.

Level two: UVa's opponents have played Texas and FCS Nicholls State while NDSU's opponents have played Louisiana-Lafayette and no one.

It's all about win/loss in Sagarin.

 

[4down20]

What's funny is the NCAA actually has two SOS listings but from the article I took away that nobody really agrees on how SOS should be calculated thus one poll's SOS may not be the same as another poll's SOS.

I create my own SoS.

 

[KansasSooner]

I create my own SoS.

Might as well. Like said, there is no set formula that has been agreed upon.

 

[4down20]

Might as well. Like said, there is no set formula that has been agreed upon.

Well the win% stuff is just horrible and doesn't take into account the strength of the opponents. A 11-2 Texas A&M team is much tougher than a 11-2 Northern Illinois. Yet in win% they are treated as equal.

Cumulative addresses that issue somewhat, but at the end of it you still have that same deal, because the opponent who plays the two teams above has them treated as equal. Which is how you get stuff like a FCS team having #8 toughest schedule.

But what irks me even more are systems that just take # of wins along the overall win% SoS and acts like who the wins and losses came against don't matter.

 

[KansasSooner]

Well the win% stuff is just horrible and doesn't take into account the strength of the opponents. A 11-2 Texas A&M team is much tougher than a 11-2 Northern Illinois. Yet in win% they are treated as equal.

Cumulative addresses that issue somewhat, but at the end of it you still have that same deal, because the opponent who plays the two teams above has them treated as equal. Which is how you get stuff like a FCS team having #8 toughest schedule.

But what irks me even more are systems that just take # of wins along the overall win% SoS and acts like who the wins and losses came against don't matter.

That's where opponent's opponents win% comes into play and why the NCAA includes in basketball, though it is only 1/3 of the total (I think that has something to do with conference games vs OOC games, but not really sure, so cupcakes are treated as such somewhat.)

 

[4down20]

That's where opponent's opponents win% comes into play and why the NCAA includes in basketball, though it is only 1/3 of the total (I think that has something to do with conference games vs OOC games, but not really sure, so cupcakes are treated as such somewhat.)

Yeah that's called cumulative.

 

[KansasSooner]

I don't include FCS wins but do include losses...

 

[4down20]

I don't include FCS wins but do include losses...

I count FCS as 0, the lowest possible and lower than basically all FBS.

When it comes to rankings, teams get 0 points for winning(like getting a 0 on a test in school), and -100 for losing. I also treat it as a bye week(small bonus for long game periods without a bye against schools that are fresher).

So kind of similar.

 

[KansasSooner]

I don't even have my spreadsheets ready for this year. Have been too sick to get to them. Oh well, I never posted results until week six anyway. But I need to get it in gear if I plan on doing it I guess.