Official Mariners trade deadline rumors/armchair GM thread

[unlvmariners]

If we were to put Ramirez in the bullpen I think he is an upgrade over Cishek, IMO. The problem is that we will continue to start him rather than put him in the pen.

Yeah I disagree. I am taking Cishek in the bullpen way above Ramirez, Ramirez is nothing more than a long relief inning eater that is honestly a dime a dozen in the league. The problem is that this type of trade is happening from the Mariners front office. It literally made the team worse. For Dipoto to think that starting Erasmo Ramirez is a good idea is complete insanity.

 

[NWinAZ]

But wait, there is more on the way...

Greg Johns‏Verified account @GregJohnsMLB 2m2 minutes ago

Mariners have acquired veteran RH reliever Ernesto Frieri from Texas in Minor League deal. Will report to Tacoma. Adds some depth.

 

[Tapey]

But wait, there is more on the way...

Greg Johns‏Verified account @GregJohnsMLB 2m2 minutes ago

Mariners have acquired veteran RH reliever Ernesto Frieri from Texas in Minor League deal. Will report to Tacoma. Adds some depth.

Now to shit on this trade

 

[NWinAZ]

But wait, there is more on the way...

Greg Johns‏Verified account @GregJohnsMLB 2m2 minutes ago

Mariners have acquired veteran RH reliever Ernesto Frieri from Texas in Minor League deal. Will report to Tacoma. Adds some depth.

Mariners Acquire Ernesto Frieri

By Steve Adams | August 8, 2017 at 5:00pm CDT

The Rangers announced that they’ve traded right-hander Ernesto Frieri to the Mariners in exchange for cash. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times first reported the swap and adds that Frieri will help to round out a depleted bullpen in Triple-A Tacoma for the time being (Twitter links). He’s not on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding move is necessary.

Frieri, 32, returned to the Majors in 2017 after sitting out the 2016 campaign entirely (outside of a stint in the Dominican Winter League). The former Angels closer drummed up some interest by pitching for his native Colombia in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. That showing helped Frieri to latch on with the Yankees on a minors pact, and he later signed with the Rangers after opting out of that pact with New York. He pitched seven innings out of the Texas ’pen, allowing four runs on six hits and six walks with five strikeouts.

While those numbers aren’t pretty, Frieri has a strong 2.63 ERA with 11.2 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9 in 27 1/3 Triple-A frames this year — including 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball with an 8-to-3 K/BB ratio since last being sent to Triple-A by Texas. He’s mostly a depth option for now, it seems, but Frieri does have a solid overall track record in the Majors, even in spite of his lack of recent results.

In 303 1/3 big league innings, he owns a 3.59 ERA with 11.5 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9. Frieri is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (career 26.4 percent ground-ball rate), though if he reaches the Majors, concerns surrounding that trait could be somewhat mitigated by the spacious dimensions of Seattle’s Safeco Field and an excellent Mariners outfield defense.

 

[seahawksfan234]

But wait, there is more on the way...

Greg Johns‏Verified account @GregJohnsMLB 2m2 minutes ago

Mariners have acquired veteran RH reliever Ernesto Frieri from Texas in Minor League deal. Will report to Tacoma. Adds some depth.

Ernesto Frieri 2014-2017: 72 IP, 6.25 ERA, 1.444 WHIP

Nice one JD! You're gonna be hard pressed to find many relievers who have pitched that poorly in 72 relief innings.

This guy legitimately fuckin' sucks.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Does he even have the slightest modicum of a vision as to what he's trying to accomplish?

 

[NWinAZ]

Does he even have the slightest modicum of a vision as to what he's trying to accomplish?

Nope.

 

[seahawksfan234]

2017-18 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

Here are some of my thoughts on the players on there:

1. Yu Darvish: Not many have mentioned him, but the Mariners should have the money to give him a 6 year contract @ $25m a year. Although that could be an optimistically low estimate. Max Scherzer got 7 @ $30m a year. Scherzer is better and doesn't have Darvish's injury history, so perhaps 6 years $25m or so is reasonable. Allocating this much to just one player would limit our options at other positions, but I think I calculated that the M's should have $40-50m to spend assuming an increase in payroll by around $10m or so.

2. J.D. Martinez: I list him mostly because the Mariners lack prospects to trade for a good starting pitcher. The M's could possibly sign him to play in the corner and move any combination of Heredia, Gamel, Haniger or Lewis. Signing Martinez then moving Lewis + Heredia, Gamel or Haniger + some other prospect for a good starting pitcher could be a creative way of upgrading at the corner and adding a starter. Unlikely to happen, but I'm just trying to be creative with the Mariners lack of prospects.

3. Jake Arrieta: He will be 32 next year, had a hell of a year in 2015 but his ERA has gone up every season since.

4. Eric Hosmer: Both Alonso and Valencia have expiring contracts, so the Mariners might be in the market for a starting 1B. He's having a hell of a year this year.

5. Masahiro Tanaka: Injuries and has an ERA this year near 5.00. He's a guy I think some team might overpay for. Not sure how I feel about him. If the Mariners are going to give a large contract to someone, I would want it to be someone we can rely on for 200+ innings a year, which I don't think you can with Tanaka.

8. Lorenzo Cain: If the Mariners don't retain Dyson and are looking for an upgrade in CF, Cain is a great all around player.

NR. Lance Lynn: This is probably one of the more realistic options. Lynn has a career 3.33 ERA and if he continues on his current pace will likely exceed 200 IP this season, something he has done 2 of the past 3 seasons.

 

[NWinAZ]

2017-18 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

Here are some of my thoughts on the players on there:

1. Yu Darvish: Not many have mentioned him, but the Mariners should have the money to give him a 6 year contract @ $25m a year. Although that could be an optimistically low estimate. Max Scherzer got 7 @ $30m a year. Scherzer is better and doesn't have Darvish's injury history, so perhaps 6 years $25m or so is reasonable. Allocating this much to just one player would limit our options at other positions, but I think I calculated that the M's should have $40-50m to spend assuming an increase in payroll by around $10m or so.

2. J.D. Martinez: I list him mostly because the Mariners lack prospects to trade for a good starting pitcher. The M's could possibly sign him to play in the corner and move any combination of Heredia, Gamel, Haniger or Lewis. Signing Martinez then moving Lewis + Heredia, Gamel or Haniger + some other prospect for a good starting pitcher could be a creative way of upgrading at the corner and adding a starter. Unlikely to happen, but I'm just trying to be creative with the Mariners lack of prospects.

3. Jake Arrieta: He will be 32 next year, had a hell of a year in 2015 but his ERA has gone up every season since.

4. Eric Hosmer: Both Alonso and Valencia have expiring contracts, so the Mariners might be in the market for a starting 1B. He's having a hell of a year this year.

5. Masahiro Tanaka: Injuries and has an ERA this year near 5.00. He's a guy I think some team might overpay for. Not sure how I feel about him. If the Mariners are going to give a large contract to someone, I would want it to be someone we can rely on for 200+ innings a year, which I don't think you can with Tanaka.

8. Lorenzo Cain: If the Mariners don't retain Dyson and are looking for an upgrade in CF, Cain is a great all around player.

NR. Lance Lynn: This is probably one of the more realistic options. Lynn has a career 3.33 ERA and if he continues on his current pace will likely exceed 200 IP this season, something he has done 2 of the past 3 seasons.

Actually I posted something like this a week or so ago. The money will be there and they have to come away with two top pitchers. Here is what I posted back then-

Starting pitching

Jake Arrieta, the 2015 National League Cy Young Award winner, is the most accomplished name here, though it will be interesting to see how he bounces back from his '16 statistical regression (his ERA+ dropped from 215 to 129) or, for that matter, if the Cubs wind up extending him. Arrieta will be entering his age-32 season when he reaches free-agent eligibility.

Yu Darvish is the other headliner. He'll be entering his age-31 season, and he might have his best seasons ahead of him now that he's two years removed from Tommy John surgery. Darvish pitched just 100 1/3 innings last year.

The wild cards are Johnny Cueto and Masahiro Tanaka, both of whom have opt-out clauses in their deals. Cueto's free-agent value last offseason was difficult to discern after his rocky tenure with the Royals, but he delivered in Year 1 for the Giants with an 18-5 record, a 2.79 ERA and a 147 ERA+ in 219 2/3 innings. Tanaka has a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament, but that hasn't stopped him from logging a 3.26 ERA and a 130 ERA+ for the Yankees over the past two seasons.

Wei-Yin Chen also has an opt-out clause with the Marlins, but his first year in Miami was a rough one. Ian Kennedy can opt out of the three years and $43 million remaining on his Royals contract, but that seems iffy.

Chris Tillman will be an attractive option, entering his age-30 season. Over the past four years, he's been a bit better than league average (105 ERA+) and averaged 190 innings in a tough division. Marco Estrada, having backed up his 2015 breakout with a 124 ERA+ in '16, could be positioning himself for a better deal than the two years and $26 million he got from Toronto a year ago. Clay Buchholz's move to Philadelphia will merit monitoring, as he was good for the Red Sox down the stretch last season. Some of the other names of note will include John Lackey, Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson, Michael Pineda, Francisco Liriano and a presumably healthy Tyson Ross. CC Sabathia's gigantic Yankees contract will have expired, too, for whatever that's worth.

Grade: B+ (we'll push it to an A if Cueto and Tanaka have good enough years to opt out)

My Response: For me, M's have to go all in on Darvish. He is the best out there and a huge upgrade. Then they need to add one more from the list which for me the first of the group would be Cobb. Tanaka might be worth the risk as well as Cueto. M's are in no position to be picky. They have to go for it high risk and all.

 

[NWinAZ]

2. J.D. Martinez: I list him mostly because the Mariners lack prospects to trade for a good starting pitcher. The M's could possibly sign him to play in the corner and move any combination of Heredia, Gamel, Haniger or Lewis. Signing Martinez then moving Lewis + Heredia, Gamel or Haniger + some other prospect for a good starting pitcher could be a creative way of upgrading at the corner and adding a starter. Unlikely to happen, but I'm just trying to be creative with the Mariners lack of prospects.

I like this thought process the most. It is something I have been saying for years. Sign FA and then trade prospects to fill needs. I probably like Heredia the best because of his energy, speed, and defense. If he could stop dropping his hands on his over-swing and start making line drive contact instead of fly ball contact, this guy to be off the charts.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I like this thought process the most. It is something I have been saying for years. Sign FA and then trade prospects to fill needs. I probably like Heredia the best because of his energy, speed, and defense. If he could stop dropping his hands on his over-swing and start making line drive contact instead of fly ball contact, this guy to be off the charts.

Generally position players have less risk than pitching, especially when we can trade for someone a few years younger than we'd be able to sign in the free agent market. There's something that worries me about giving a big contract to a pitcher on the wrong side of thirty.

I'm unsure how much the Mariners will have to spend, I'd estimate at least $40m with a ceiling of maybe $60m.

Lance Lynn I really like a lot. Give me Lance Lynn and Yu Darvish and I'm happy. I'm pretty sure that could be done for $40-$45m or so. Probably won't happen, but hey, one can dream, right?

 

[seahawksfan234]

I like this thought process the most. It is something I have been saying for years. Sign FA and then trade prospects to fill needs. I probably like Heredia the best because of his energy, speed, and defense. If he could stop dropping his hands on his over-swing and start making line drive contact instead of fly ball contact, this guy to be off the charts.

100% agree on the Heredia thing. I recall us talking about how he has some adjustments he needs to make with his swing. I want to move Gamel while his value is high. I think he got pretty lucky early on and is now starting to come back down to Earth.

 

[NWinAZ]

Lance Lynn I really like a lot. Give me Lance Lynn and Yu Darvish and I'm happy. I'm pretty sure that could be done for $40-$45m or so. Probably won't happen, but hey, one can dream, right?

That would be the greatest off season since Beltre/Sexton (ya I said it).

There's something that worries me about giving a big contract to a pitcher on the wrong side of thirty.

Problem is that most free agent pitchers worth having are on the wrong side of 30 and the few that aren't would cost $200M.

 

[wazzu31]

Does he even have the slightest modicum of a vision as to what he's trying to accomplish?

I'll give Jerry one thing, he sticks to his guns. He wants controllable guys and depth. Doesn't matter if the depth sucks but it's depth.

 

[wazzu31]

That would be the greatest off season since Beltre/Sexton (ya I said it).



Problem is that most free agent pitchers worth having are on the wrong side of 30 and the few that aren't would cost $200M.

And Jerry is an analytics guy, which devalues starting pitching. 5 innings then give it over to your bullpen is my understanding of how they like a staff. Not sure if that's true or not but the staff's in Seattle and Tacoma are made up guys who are perfect for long relief.

 

[Podunkparte]

The "cash" Jerry paid for Frieri, by the way, was $1

 

[seahawksfan234]

Yeah I disagree. I am taking Cishek in the bullpen way above Ramirez, Ramirez is nothing more than a long relief inning eater that is honestly a dime a dozen in the league. The problem is that this type of trade is happening from the Mariners front office. It literally made the team worse. For Dipoto to think that starting Erasmo Ramirez is a good idea is complete insanity.

To add to this, here are Erasmo's splits:

As a starter: 4.37 ERA 389 IP 1.280 WHIP
As a reliever: 4.04 ERA 149.1 IP 1.920 WHIP

Compared to Cishek:

In relief: 2.79 ERA 402 IP 1.172 WHIP

In relief, Cishek is clearly much superior. The only thing that Ramirez offers over Cishek is versatility as a starting pitcher and the opportunity to provide long-relief.

Although Cishek isn't a long-reliever, I'd still take an inning of Cishek at 2.79 than 1-2 innings of Erasmo at 4.04.

 

[seahawksfan234]

And Jerry is an analytics guy, which devalues starting pitching. 5 innings then give it over to your bullpen is my understanding of how they like a staff. Not sure if that's true or not but the staff's in Seattle and Tacoma are made up guys who are perfect for long relief.

I don't think that's a good philosophy to follow.

Bullpen arms can at times be consistent. Additionally, a SP who goes 5 IP generally isn't very good to begin with. That's essentially saying that we don't need decent pitching to win games.

 

[NWinAZ]

The "cash" Jerry paid for Frieri, by the way, was $1

He over-payed.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I don't think that's a good philosophy to follow.

Bullpen arms can at times be consistent. Additionally, a SP who goes 5 IP generally isn't very good to begin with. That's essentially saying that we don't need decent pitching to win games.

Meant to say inconsistent.