Official Mariners arm-chair GM offseason thread

[StanMarsh51]

Gordon has had 200+ hit season 2 of the last 3 seasons. Not bad for a leadoff hitter in Seattle.

He needs every one of those hits (and steals) to add even a little value since he doesn't walk and doesn't have any power.

Once his speed starts to go (speedsters don't age well in their 30s), he'll likely become pretty useless.

 

[PolarVortex]

Him trading away players for international money is only justified if he lands Ohtani. I will turn sour on all these moves if he doesn't come here. I love Dee Gordon, and I love what he gives on the bases, but this team will not be a contender if we don't have a top end starting pitcher.

Also we don't even know if he can play centerfield. He has the athleticism to be a great CF, but he has never played that position in the bigs. I'm also too lazy to see if he played it in the minor leagues.

That lookout landing article was really good in describing what Ohtani would give the Mariners. If we don't land him after trying to land international spending money, I will be furious.

With Dee Gordon on base, Segura and Cano are going to see a lot more fastballs. That should help Cano slow down the regression that comes when a player enters his mid 30s. Might help Cruz a bit too.

Segura and Gordon have the combined potential to steal 70-90 bases. They stole a combined 82 last year.

 

[EVille3]

He needs every one of those hits (and steals) to add even a little value since he doesn't walk and doesn't have any power.

Once his speed starts to go (speedsters don't age well in their 30s), he'll likely become pretty useless.

well he will be 30 when the season starts and has 3 years left on his contract. Dyson was 34 and his speed was more than enough last year. He is gonna get pitches to hit and a chance to score a ton of runs with Jean and Robbie behind him.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Segura and Gordon have the combined potential to steal 70-90 bases. They stole a combined 82 last year.

Will hopefully avoid some of those Cano rollover double plays

 

[StanMarsh51]

well he will be 30 when the season starts and has 3 years left on his contract. Dyson was 34 and his speed was more than enough last year. He is gonna get pitches to hit and a chance to score a ton of runs with Jean and Robbie behind him.

Dyson was 32 for most of the 2017 season, and he had a below average batting AVG, OBP, SLG by MLB leadoff hitter standards.

If you look down the list of big time speedsters in the past decade or so, many of them start to decline significantly in their early 30s when their speed declines and/or injuries start to accumulate - less stolen bases, less hits (harder to get infield hits), less run scoring (harder to score from 1st on a double or 2nd on a single), etc....

Look at guys like:
Chone Figgins
Jose Reyes
Michael Bourn
Ellsbury
Carl Crawford
Shane Victorino
Jimmy Rollins

Among others - the trend is that there's a pretty steep decline in their early 30s. Obviously there are some exceptions like Ichiro, but in general, the guys who can routinely steal 40+ in their 20s fall hard and fast in their 30s.

 

[EVille3]

Dyson was 32 for most of the 2017 season, and he had a below average batting AVG, OBP, SLG by MLB leadoff hitter standards.

If you look down the list of big time speedsters in the past decade or so, many of them start to decline significantly in their early 30s when their speed declines and/or injuries start to accumulate - less stolen bases, less hits (harder to get infield hits), less run scoring (harder to score from 1st on a double or 2nd on a single), etc....

Look at guys like:
Chone Figgins
Jose Reyes
Michael Bourn
Ellsbury
Carl Crawford
Shane Victorino
Jimmy Rollins

Among others - the trend is that there's a pretty steep decline in their early 30s. Obviously there are some exceptions like Ichiro, but in general, the guys who can routinely steal 40+ in their 20s fall hard and fast in their 30s.

Regression is to be expected,sure. However, none of the guys above have the wheels of Gordon. He has averaged 60 steals over his last 3 full seasons. Even if does lose a step, that's easily 50 bags a year for the rest of his contract. That is an element that has been missing for quite some time.

 

[seahawksfan234]

With Dee Gordon on base, Segura and Cano are going to see a lot more fastballs. That should help Cano slow down the regression that comes when a player enters his mid 30s. Might help Cruz a bit too.

Segura and Gordon have the combined potential to steal 70-90 bases. They stole a combined 82 last year.

I will say that the team is rounding out to have a really great lineup if we don't see much regression from Cano and Cruz next year. Top to bottom, this is looking like it could be one of the best lineups in baseball.

 

[Tapey]

Well i fucking hate Ohtani now

 

[StanMarsh51]

Regression is to be expected,sure. However, none of the guys above have the wheels of Gordon. He has averaged 60 steals over his last 3 full seasons. Even if does lose a step, that's easily 50 bags a year for the rest of his contract. That is an element that has been missing for quite some time.

I'd disagree - Gordon's averaged about 61 steals his last 3 full years, wheras:

-Reyes had a 3 year stretch in his 20s where he averaged 64 steals
-Bourn had a 3 year stretch in his 20s where he averaged 58 steals
-Crawford stole 58+ bases in 3 seasons in his 20s, with 5 seasons overall of 50+ steals
-Figgins had a 3 year stretch averaging 52 steals, and that was with missing almost 1/3 of a season in one of the years
-Ellsbury had a 70 steal season and two more 50+ steal seasons
-Going further back, Kenny Lofton averaged 58 steals from age 25-31 (and never stole more than 32 after age 31).


Pretty comparable to Gordon - and these guys fell hard and fast in their early 30s. It's not just losing a step, but the injuries for speedsters often start to come in their early 30s which hurts performance significantly.

 

[Tapey]

 

[seahawksfan234]

Life of a Mariners fan.

 

[seahawksfan234]

So the Angels nab two of the Braves prospects, and Ohtani. Awesome. Just fucking awesome.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Life of a Mariners fan.

The beat goes on

 

[unlvmariners]

And thats why you don't put all your eggs in one basket. I hope Ohtani is a bust

 

[unlvmariners]

What should we do with all that international money???? Burn it?

 

[NWinAZ]

What should we do with all that international money???? Burn it?

We can use on some prospects rated in the low 20's and then trade them away for nothing in two years. JD will be summering with Bavasi by then.

 

[NWinAZ]

FIRE SALE!!!! GET YOUR INTERNATIONAL MONEY FOR FIFTY CENTS ON THE DOLLAR! HURRY NOW BECAUSE IT EXPIRES IN 7 MONTHS.

 

[SeattleCoug]

And thats why you don't put all your eggs in one basket. I hope Ohtani is a bust

Yep, cant wait for a bunch of Dipoto lateral moves to make this a solid 84 win team

 

[NWinAZ]

Move #1 to forget what's his face:

Mariners claim RHP Mike Morin off of waivers from the Royals.

Morin recently had come to an agreement to avoid arbitration with Kansas City, agreeing to a split contract that will pay him $750,000 prorated while in the majors and $250,000 prorated in the minors. In 16 games with the Royals and Angels, he posted a 7.20 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 20 innings

 

[NWinAZ]

I really don't care that we didn't get him because I truly believe he will be good at both but not great at either (hitting and pitching). But to lose 3 of their top 10 prospects from a weak field is a killer. Not to mention all the time and energy wasted on his chase when they could have signed the Braves kids that were released. Now Twins just signed one of them today.