Official 2014 Texas Rangers Spring Training Thread

[TDs3nOut]

Research Papers | MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

http://www.sloansportsconference.co...4_SSAC_What-Does-it-Take-to-Call-a-Strike.pdf


Those Sloan Conference papers are pretty interesting ...

Do Major League Baseball umpires call balls and strikes solely in response to pitch location? No. Analyzing over one million pitches, we find that the strike zone contracts in 2-strike counts and expands in 3-ball counts, and that umpires are reluctant to call two strikes in a row. Effect sizes can be dramatic: for the average umpire, the probability of a called strike in 2-strike counts drops by as much as 19 percentage points in the corners of the strike zone; for some umpires, the chance of a called strike drops from a coin flip to almost zero. We structurally estimate each umpire's aversions to miscalling balls and strikes in different game states. If an umpire is unbiased, he would only need to be 50% sure that a pitch is a strike in order to call a strike half the time. In fact, the average umpire needs to be 64% sure of a strike in order to call strike three half the time. Moreover, the least biased umpire still needs to be 55% sure of a strike in order to call strike three half the time. In other words, every umpire is biased. Because the biases are strongest at the top and bottom of the strike zone, pitchers should shift their pitches towards the top or bottom in 3-ball counts and towards the left or right in 2-strike counts.

Interesting. I think that MLB umpires attend training sessions. Might be worth discussing the findings of this study at those sessions and analyze the effects of having done so. Seems to me that umpires could possibly correct this systematic bias if they knew it exists.

 

[romeo212000]

Interesting. I think that MLB umpires attend training sessions. Might be worth discussing the findings of this study at those sessions and analyze the effects of having done so. Seems to me that umpires could possibly correct this systematic bias if they knew it exists.

Umpires have such big egos I'm not sure it would matter.

 

[fordman84]

I think you're right about all of the above. But it just chaps-my-ass to hear some now super rich, overpaid player stating what the team should and shouldn't do. The place and time to discuss the team was when you were negotiating for your long term future.

Here's a thought Mr. JZ.....get your guy $190 mil, and leave the rest to get Morales and Santana and the team would be much better off and your "effing client" wouldn't know the difference because he's still RICH.

I'd love to see a player negotiate a contract like that. "Ok, so we agree to 10/$250M? Great, now actually give me 10/$180M and I get to decide who gets the rest of those 10 years and $70M."

Seems like a FO would be thrilled at that. They get their player and relief to go get good players. Plus you know that big name FA is going to be actively recruiting for your team. so you have basically 5/$35M to go get whomever he wants...and these big name players all have buddies and know who they want to play with.

 

[fordman84]

This from Albert Pujols.........."I think if there's a day I need to DH, I'll DH," Pujols said. "If I need a day off, I'll take a day off. I wish I'd have done that more earlier in my career. Because of the last couple of years I'm trying to be Superman and trying to play 162 games. It's cost me the last couple of years."

It won't shock me to see him have a very nice bounce back season.

I'm expecting big years from both he and Josh. They are both too good to never put up good numbers again. Josh won't be a .300 hitter, but I bet he gets .285/30/100. Pujols will probably have similar numbers. Trout is going to have a rough year this year, IMO

 

[TDs3nOut]

Umpires have such big egos I'm not sure it would matter.

I suspect that at least some of the umps would be skeptical of the findings. If their compensation were somehow linked to their performance, however, their resistance might lessen.

 

[Windingmywatch]

I suspect that at least some of the umps would be skeptical of the findings. If their compensation were somehow linked to their performance, however, their resistance might lessen.

Having read the entire study there is absolutely no way that a ML umpire would understand a word in it.

 

[romeo212000]

MLB Neftali Feliz not concerned about velocity - ESPN

Velocity not there for Feliz so far.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Having read the entire study there is absolutely no way that a ML umpire would understand a word in it.

LOL I'm not suggesting that the methodology or the finer points of the statistical analysis should be emphasized to the umps. But I think it is easily possible to clearly explain that there is evidence that umps call balls when they should be calling third strikes and call strikes when they should be calling fourth balls.

 

[TheRangerDude]

I'm not going to lie. We need an extra bat, especially a right-handed bat. We have many left-handed hitters. We need at least one more righty. You don't want to face a lefty pitcher with a lineup of seven left-handed hitters. ” -- Robinson Cano, to CBSSports

Cano also told CBSSports.com that he would like to see the Mariners sign pitcher Ervin Santana, another high-profile free agent who is still available.

As far as Cano is concerned, the Mariners should have been in contention to sign several free agents this offseason. The five-time All-Star also mentioned slugger Nelson Cruz and pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez, who both recently joined the Baltimore Orioles after remaining unsigned through most of the winter.
"If it was up to me, we'd have Santana, Cruz and Ubaldo, too," Cano told the website. "That's really more for the front office."


I'm sure the FO loves this

Ha the FO office should have told Robby that it is up to him... drop about $100 off that contract and we will sign all those others

 

[TheRangerDude]

Ha the FO office should have told Robby that it is up to him... drop about $100 off that contract and we will sign all those others

Yup just $100 that should just about do it- Doh'

*$100M

 

[WastinSomeTime]

This from Albert Pujols.........."I think if there's a day I need to DH, I'll DH," Pujols said. "If I need a day off, I'll take a day off. I wish I'd have done that more earlier in my career. Because of the last couple of years I'm trying to be Superman and trying to play 162 games. It's cost me the last couple of years."

It won't shock me to see him have a very nice bounce back season.

Problem with him is I am not sure he can stay healthy.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

MLB Neftali Feliz not concerned about velocity - ESPN

Velocity not there for Feliz so far.

I was trying to remember how he had done in Winter ball and found he was hitting 97-98. Also he started out fast and ended up with good stats. In 9.2 gave up 6 h and 3 r with 11 k's and just 2 bb. His whip was 0.83 and avg against him just .176. So hopefully hs velocity picks back up as ST moves along.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

On the flip side I was reading that Bard pitched 1/3 of an inning and gave up 0 hits. But he walked 9, hit 3 batters and threw 4 wild pitches which led to 7 runs. That was over 3 games. Yikes!

 

[Justinkm83]

Cano is probably going to wear out his welcome very quickly. He'll then be traded to the Dodgers.

 

[donaldson79]

Problem with him is I am not sure he can stay healthy.

His foot problem was the major one for last season and this seems to be cleared up. Plus, he seems to be willing to accept time at DH or on the bench as needed.

As for a bounce back year from Josh, who the hell knows. He's hurt again, and this can't help him as far as getting off to any type of decent start.

And I can't see any reason to think - maybe someone wants to hope - Trout will have anything other than another stellar season. I hope not too but the evidence on the field indicates he's here to stay and star.

 

[Justinkm83]

His foot problem was the major one for last season and this seems to be cleared up. Plus, he seems to be willing to accept time at DH or on the bench as needed.

As for a bounce back year from Josh, who the hell knows. He's hurt again, and this can't help him as far as getting off to any type of decent start.

And I can't see any reason to think - maybe someone wants to hope - Trout will have anything other than another stellar season. I hope not too but the evidence on the field indicates he's here to stay and star.

A down year for Trout is .280 w/ 20 HRs, and I don't see that happening.
I've seen Poophole run this spring and it is ugly. His foot might be healthy but you wouldn't know it by watching him run.

 

[donaldson79]

A down year for Trout is .280 w/ 20 HRs, and I don't see that happening.
I've seen Poophole run this spring and it is ugly. His foot might be healthy but you wouldn't know it by watching him run.

He was never considered a speed merchant or one to take an extra base. hahaha

But yeah, he's laboring now. However, his bat speed is still there it seems. So, .275 or so with 30 HRs may still be very attainable.

 

[Broseidon]

I think you're right about all of the above. But it just chaps-my-ass to hear some now super rich, overpaid player stating what the team should and shouldn't do. The place and time to discuss the team was when you were negotiating for your long term future.

Here's a thought Mr. JZ.....get your guy $190 mil, and leave the rest to get Morales and Santana and the team would be much better off and your "effing client" wouldn't know the difference because he's still RICH.

I think the players union has a lot to do with the top FAs chasing top dollar. There's some pressure to make sure salaries keep escalating as revenues increase.

 

[donaldson79]

I think the players union has a lot to do with the top FAs chasing top dollar. There's some pressure to make sure salaries keep escalating as revenues increase.

I think you're a 100% correct.

But ya know, at some point, a player can just tell the union to kiss off. That's the truth. He doesn't report to them, and frankly, it would be good for a player to finally stand up and take a lower contract based upon the team making commitments to improve in other areas - like getting him some protection - and make the most of it. Screw the union.

Besides, is it some kind of massive blow to the union, other players, that a guy took $190 mil rather than $240?

 

[The Commish]

With all the talk about Pujols, Hamilton, and Trout...

LAA v Arizona Diamondbacks is starting on Fox Sports 1 right now.