Official 2014 Texas Rangers Spring Training Thread

[Windingmywatch]

Research Papers | MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

http://www.sloansportsconference.co...4_SSAC_What-Does-it-Take-to-Call-a-Strike.pdf


Those Sloan Conference papers are pretty interesting ...

Do Major League Baseball umpires call balls and strikes solely in response to pitch location? No. Analyzing over one million pitches, we find that the strike zone contracts in 2-strike counts and expands in 3-ball counts, and that umpires are reluctant to call two strikes in a row. Effect sizes can be dramatic: for the average umpire, the probability of a called strike in 2-strike counts drops by as much as 19 percentage points in the corners of the strike zone; for some umpires, the chance of a called strike drops from a coin flip to almost zero. We structurally estimate each umpire's aversions to miscalling balls and strikes in different game states. If an umpire is unbiased, he would only need to be 50% sure that a pitch is a strike in order to call a strike half the time. In fact, the average umpire needs to be 64% sure of a strike in order to call strike three half the time. Moreover, the least biased umpire still needs to be 55% sure of a strike in order to call strike three half the time. In other words, every umpire is biased. Because the biases are strongest at the top and bottom of the strike zone, pitchers should shift their pitches towards the top or bottom in 3-ball counts and towards the left or right in 2-strike counts.

 

[romeo212000]

Research Papers | MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

http://www.sloansportsconference.co...4_SSAC_What-Does-it-Take-to-Call-a-Strike.pdf


Those Sloan Conference papers are pretty interesting ...

Do Major League Baseball umpires call balls and strikes solely in response to pitch location? No. Analyzing over one million pitches, we find that the strike zone contracts in 2-strike counts and expands in 3-ball counts, and that umpires are reluctant to call two strikes in a row. Effect sizes can be dramatic: for the average umpire, the probability of a called strike in 2-strike counts drops by as much as 19 percentage points in the corners of the strike zone; for some umpires, the chance of a called strike drops from a coin flip to almost zero. We structurally estimate each umpire's aversions to miscalling balls and strikes in different game states. If an umpire is unbiased, he would only need to be 50% sure that a pitch is a strike in order to call a strike half the time. In fact, the average umpire needs to be 64% sure of a strike in order to call strike three half the time. Moreover, the least biased umpire still needs to be 55% sure of a strike in order to call strike three half the time. In other words, every umpire is biased. Because the biases are strongest at the top and bottom of the strike zone, pitchers should shift their pitches towards the top or bottom in 3-ball counts and towards the left or right in 2-strike counts.

Robot umps now!!!

 

[WastinSomeTime]

Research Papers | MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

http://www.sloansportsconference.co...4_SSAC_What-Does-it-Take-to-Call-a-Strike.pdf


Those Sloan Conference papers are pretty interesting ...

Do Major League Baseball umpires call balls and strikes solely in response to pitch location? No. Analyzing over one million pitches, we find that the strike zone contracts in 2-strike counts and expands in 3-ball counts, and that umpires are reluctant to call two strikes in a row. Effect sizes can be dramatic: for the average umpire, the probability of a called strike in 2-strike counts drops by as much as 19 percentage points in the corners of the strike zone; for some umpires, the chance of a called strike drops from a coin flip to almost zero. We structurally estimate each umpire's aversions to miscalling balls and strikes in different game states. If an umpire is unbiased, he would only need to be 50% sure that a pitch is a strike in order to call a strike half the time. In fact, the average umpire needs to be 64% sure of a strike in order to call strike three half the time. Moreover, the least biased umpire still needs to be 55% sure of a strike in order to call strike three half the time. In other words, every umpire is biased. Because the biases are strongest at the top and bottom of the strike zone, pitchers should shift their pitches towards the top or bottom in 3-ball counts and towards the left or right in 2-strike counts.

On a 3-0 count the strike zone widens by a huge margin or so it seems to me when watching games. I guess you could also expand this to who is pitching or hitting as some seem to get the benefit of the doubt there as well.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

Robot umps now!!!

To go with some of the robot managing we see.

 

[DT LUNA]

To go with some of the robot managing we see.

Do robot mgrs. bunt a lot?

 

[WastinSomeTime]

Do robot mgrs. bunt a lot?

My lips are sealed.

 

[Windingmywatch]

We find that the state of the at-bat distorts the probability of calling a strike. Umpires are influenced by what they have called previously and how their current decision bears on the outcome of the at-bat. The effects we document are strong enough to change the outcomes of games. Bias flips about 1% of calls. Almost once a game, an at-bat ends in something other than a strikeout after a third strike should have been called.

 

[Windingmywatch]

http://www.sloansportsconference.co...y-is-not-baseballs-most-valuable-currency.pdf

Does money buy wins in baseball? Conventional wisdom says yes, but the conclusions from this paper make us question that ironclad assumption.

A cross-sports comparison finds that MLB, along with the NBA and NFL, has a very weak relationship between payroll and wins. In one striking example, baseball’s model was not able to predict with statistical certainty that the 2013 Yankees (payroll: $229 million) would win more games than the 2013 Astros (payroll: $22 million). By contrast, studies of the English Premier League have found a nearly perfect payroll-wins relationship.

Switching to a longitudinal lens, the paper examines baseball’s historical relationship between payroll and winning. Contrary to popular belief, payroll’s explanatory value on wins is currently at a near-all-time low, in spite of rising payroll inequality. How is this possible? In a word: youth. Pre free-agency-eligible players continue to outperform their elder, more expensive peers at a staggering rate. With an increasingly large percentage of the best players not eligible for purchase on the open market, the payroll-wins relationship continues to erode.

It’s impossible to know for certain whether this trend of weakening “win-buying” ability will continue, but increasingly stringent penalties for performance-enhancing drugs—widely assumed to offer greater benefits to older players—could help maintain the youth dominance effect for the foreseeable future. While today’s headlines may speak of baseball’s “haves” and “have nots” in terms of financial clout, they may need some revision for a future in which the reigning currency is not money but youth.

 

[Justinkm83]

I remember reading how he was doing well in winter ball, hopefully just a bump in the road. I would like to hear where he is with his velocity so far in ST

Neftali Feliz not concerned about velocity - Dallas Texas Rangers Blog - ESPN Dallas

Here's your answer. It makes me very uneasy that he says he's not concerned, which might be BS. I think he's probably very concerned.

 

[Bmurph]

Neftali Feliz not concerned about velocity - Dallas Texas Rangers Blog - ESPN Dallas

Here's your answer. It makes me very uneasy that he says he's not concerned, which might be BS. I think he's probably very concerned.

Yeah now I remember reading that, thanks. He didn't seem to do all that well keeping the ball down today, it doesn't seem

 

[Bmurph]

Neftali Feliz having trouble with mechanics
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
Rangers pitcher Neftali Feliz is having some trouble with his mechanics, according to the Dallas Morning News.

Feliz struggled during an intrasquad game, and his mechanics were "out of whack." He also hasn't been able to regain his velocity yet. Feliz is set to pitch Sunday against the White Sox. He missed most of last season due to his recovery from Tommy John surgery.

And he struggled again today

 

[Justinkm83]

I'm not going to lie. We need an extra bat, especially a right-handed bat. We have many left-handed hitters. We need at least one more righty. You don't want to face a lefty pitcher with a lineup of seven left-handed hitters. ” -- Robinson Cano, to CBSSports

Cano also told CBSSports.com that he would like to see the Mariners sign pitcher Ervin Santana, another high-profile free agent who is still available.

As far as Cano is concerned, the Mariners should have been in contention to sign several free agents this offseason. The five-time All-Star also mentioned slugger Nelson Cruz and pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez, who both recently joined the Baltimore Orioles after remaining unsigned through most of the winter.
"If it was up to me, we'd have Santana, Cruz and Ubaldo, too," Cano told the website. "That's really more for the front office."


I'm sure the FO loves this

 

[Bmurph]

I'm not going to lie. We need an extra bat, especially a right-handed bat. We have many left-handed hitters. We need at least one more righty. You don't want to face a lefty pitcher with a lineup of seven left-handed hitters. ” -- Robinson Cano, to CBSSports

Cano also told CBSSports.com that he would like to see the Mariners sign pitcher Ervin Santana, another high-profile free agent who is still available.

As far as Cano is concerned, the Mariners should have been in contention to sign several free agents this offseason. The five-time All-Star also mentioned slugger Nelson Cruz and pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez, who both recently joined the Baltimore Orioles after remaining unsigned through most of the winter.
"If it was up to me, we'd have Santana, Cruz and Ubaldo, too," Cano told the website. "That's really more for the front office."


I'm sure the FO loves this

The M's could have been in contention to sign several FA's this offseason had they not given one player 240 million dollars. SMH

 

[donaldson79]

The M's could have been in contention to sign several FA's this offseason had they not given one player 240 million dollars. SMH

All kidding aside, wouldn't you think a player like this would ask about the bigger picture before getting every single last dime available to him? Now he's committed to spending the rest of his baseball career in Seattle and up until a few hours ago never thought to inquire as to "how exactly are we going to win, long term here?"

Frankly, shut the hell up Cano. You got what you wanted, so don't start carping now about what the effing teams needs.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

All kidding aside, wouldn't you think a player like this would ask about the bigger picture before getting every single last dime available to him? Now he's committed to spending the rest of his baseball career in Seattle and up until a few hours ago never thought to inquire as to "how exactly are we going to win, long term here?"

Frankly, shut the hell up Cano. You got what you wanted, so don't start carping now about what the effing teams needs.

Hey, let's leave Carp out of this. Seriously, you are correct. He got what he wanted which was money so he made his bed now he can go lie in it.

 

[romeo212000]

All kidding aside, wouldn't you think a player like this would ask about the bigger picture before getting every single last dime available to him? Now he's committed to spending the rest of his baseball career in Seattle and up until a few hours ago never thought to inquire as to "how exactly are we going to win, long term here?"

Frankly, shut the hell up Cano. You got what you wanted, so don't start carping now about what the effing teams needs.

 

[UK Cowboy]

The M's could have been in contention to sign several FA's this offseason had they not given one player 240 million dollars. SMH

No Joke. If Cano wanted those guys so badly, all he had to do was go to the team and rework his deal from $240 to $180 and they could sign them all. NEWS FLASH....Seattle doesn't have the Yankees payroll big guy. Hope the money was worth playing for a 3rd place team

 

[fordman84]

Sports players have known this for years, but they still aren't getting it. What is more important, being the highest paid player or winning? He's won before so maybe he just wanted all the money he could. Seattle is a nice place too, so he's got it pretty good. His contract has hamstrung that team for a while though, hope they can keep developing pitching.

Angels are in worst shape though. Equally bad contracts, less farm, and despite what everyone says...not much money to go get the two front end pitchers they need.

 

[donaldson79]

Sports players have known this for years, but they still aren't getting it. What is more important, being the highest paid player or winning? He's won before so maybe he just wanted all the money he could. Seattle is a nice place too, so he's got it pretty good. His contract has hamstrung that team for a while though, hope they can keep developing pitching.

Angels are in worst shape though. Equally bad contracts, less farm, and despite what everyone says...not much money to go get the two front end pitchers they need.

I think you're right about all of the above. But it just chaps-my-ass to hear some now super rich, overpaid player stating what the team should and shouldn't do. The place and time to discuss the team was when you were negotiating for your long term future.

Here's a thought Mr. JZ.....get your guy $190 mil, and leave the rest to get Morales and Santana and the team would be much better off and your "effing client" wouldn't know the difference because he's still RICH.

 

[donaldson79]

This from Albert Pujols.........."I think if there's a day I need to DH, I'll DH," Pujols said. "If I need a day off, I'll take a day off. I wish I'd have done that more earlier in my career. Because of the last couple of years I'm trying to be Superman and trying to play 162 games. It's cost me the last couple of years."

It won't shock me to see him have a very nice bounce back season.