Official 2014 Texas Rangers Spring Training Thread

[Justinkm83]

It seems history is filled with far more of those guys that flamed out due to an inability to make consistent contact than those that made it

I like Gallo (a lot), but I'll hold my expectations low for at least another year

I completely agree, but the expectation part is hard for me when I love a hitter's swing.

 

[jta4437]

Haha... I wasn't asking you to and I actually said I will probably do it myself at some point just out of curiosity. I will post the results after do this... it could turn out the standard deviation is so high that any results gotten from the effort are meaningless for an individual though.

As for your second statement, I will end conversation with the same thing you started it with:

You have no way of knowing that. :P

I can base it on the fact that guys with his skill set (eye) tend to age much better than guys with Young's (bat speed) which is how that started, so nice try, I never claimed to "know" anything going forward, but I also used words like "generally" and "likely" to display uncertainty

Your statement: "So, I still prefer having Choo but the end of his contract is going to look similar to if not worse than the end of the MY contract that many were so vocal about."

That statement implies a bit more certainty about something no one knows anything about, and with nothing to back up that sentiment mind you

Thanks for playing, I quit

 

[jta4437]

I completely agree, but the expectation part is hard for me when I love a hitter's swing.

I've had the same problem with Alfaro and his up and down journey is killing me

 

[TheRangerDude]

I can base it on the fact that guys with his skill set (eye) tend to age much better than guys with Young's (bat speed) which is how that started, so nice try, I never claimed to "know" anything going forward, but I also used words like "generally" and "likely" to display uncertainty

Your statement: "So, I still prefer having Choo but the end of his contract is going to look similar to if not worse than the end of the MY contract that many were so vocal about."

That statement implies a bit more certainty about something no one knows anything about, and with nothing to back up that sentiment mind you

Thanks for playing, I quit

Ha, wow, I was kidding around with you on that last statement, hence the :P.- lighten up a bit. I corrected myself on my wording of that original statement. I am usually pretty good about not defending my ability to predict the future.

 

[Justinkm83]

I've had the same problem with Alfaro and his up and down journey is killing me

I still think Alfaro could surprise some people and make a run at the big league roster next year. I know everyone thinks he's at least 2 years away, but I think there's a good chance he makes the team next year.

 

[Windingmywatch]

Trout would be the only person the Angels gave $100 million+ to that was worth the money

I hope he signs the deal ... then immediately gets fat and follows the Vernon Wells model out of town. He's a showboat. I don't like showboats.

 

[Windingmywatch]

I still think Alfaro could surprise some people and make a run at the big league roster next year. I know everyone thinks he's at least 2 years away, but I think there's a good chance he makes the team next year.

Please explain why you think so. Am not opposed to seeing Alfaro make it to the MLB as soon as he is ready ... but since he's just now going to play at A+ level ... what part of his game is close to jumping three levels ... recognizing game calling is a catcher's most important skill.

Please don't get me wrong ... I would love for you to be right ... just don't say stuff based on 'feelings'. Base it on some comparisons between Alfaro and say the last 10 rookie catchers that made it to the ML level. How does he compare to them and where they are today ... and where he is now. Simple.

 

[TheRangerDude]

@JTA

oh you did say at the end that his OBP WILL still be above the league average. That is what I was joking around with you about with that last statement. Most of us on here are guilty of trying to say we know what the future holds for some player, team, or game every now and again. Besides, it is sort of fun to do.

I'll get back to you with those numbers at some point if you are interested but I need to think of a meaningful way to pool the data so it measures what I am attempting to measure. Do you know if fangraphs or baseball references lets you bring up stats on players by setting some sort of qualifiers? For instance all players with consecutive seasons of both .280+ AVGs and .35+ OBPs . Then only view maybe only the BA, OBP, PA stat columns for each of those players by year. Or is this way to specific? I would imagine so- it might be a lot of work as far as a data pooling method. Anyone know of a good website that can filter MLB data like this?

 

[jta4437]

@JTA

oh you did say at the end that his OBP WILL still be above the league average. That is what I was joking around with you about with that last statement. Most of us on here are guilty of trying to say we know what the future holds for some player, team, or game every now and again. Besides, it is sort of fun to do.

I'll get back to you with those numbers at some point if you are interested but I need to think of a meaningful way to pool the data so it measures what I am attempting to measure. Do you know if fangraphs or baseball references lets you bring up stats on players by setting some sort of qualifiers? For instance all players with consecutive seasons of both .280+ AVGs and .35+ OBPs . Then only view maybe only the BA, OBP, PA stat columns for each of those players by year. Or is this way to specific? I would imagine so- it might be a lot of work as far as a data pooling method. Anyone know of a good website that can filter MLB data like this?

And more than likely his OBP WILL be above average, and I can state that with pretty strong certainty, as it would take a SERIOUS erosion of his skills for that to not be true

don't know why you want to keep going to battle over this, I shouldn't have responded, I'm not really interested in going into this any further, I've got better things to do with my time

 

[jta4437]

Please explain why you think so. Am not opposed to seeing Alfaro make it to the MLB as soon as he is ready ... but since he's just now going to play at A+ level ... what part of his game is close to jumping three levels ... recognizing game calling is a catcher's most important skill.

Please don't get me wrong ... I would love for you to be right ... just don't say stuff based on 'feelings'. Base it on some comparisons between Alfaro and say the last 10 rookie catchers that made it to the ML level. How does he compare to them and where they are today ... and where he is now. Simple.

How about you do all that, and tell us the results since you're so interested in knowing the answer,

People are allowed to have opinions without backing it up with extensive comparative data, sorry

But I do agree, Alfaro is probably at least 2 years away defensively alone, not to mention his plate discipline is almost as bad

 

[TheRangerDude]

And more than likely his OBP WILL be above average, and I can state that with pretty strong certainty, as it would take a SERIOUS erosion of his skills for that to not be true

don't know why you want to keep going to battle over this, I shouldn't have responded, I'm not really interested in going into this any further, I've got better things to do with my time

Oh well, guess your are not going to have a sense of humor about the whole thing... I'm trying to be friendly here.

I'll probably post some stats in a few days for others that might have interest. I think overall it is an interesting question:

Does a hitting better make you better at walking too or vice versa and if so, how significantly?

 

[WastinSomeTime]

It seems history is filled with far more of those guys that flamed out due to an inability to make consistent contact than those that made it

I like Gallo (a lot), but I'll hold my expectations low for at least another year

Same here.

 

[Windingmywatch]

And more than likely his OBP WILL be above average, and I can state that with pretty strong certainty, as it would take a SERIOUS erosion of his skills for that to not be true

don't know why you want to keep going to battle over this, I shouldn't have responded, I'm not really interested in going into this any further, I've got better things to do with my time

Did a quick spreadsheet comparing Choo and Young. Young had incredibly consistent delta between OBP and BA and it shows his minimum BA and OBP performance doesn't hold a .280BA to .350OBP spread ... conversely Choo's spread at the minimum performance retained the .350OBP level with a BA below .280.

 

[Windingmywatch]

How about you do all that, and tell us the results since you're so interested in knowing the answer,

People are allowed to have opinions without backing it up with extensive comparative data, sorry

But I do agree, Alfaro is probably at least 2 years away defensively alone, not to mention his plate discipline is almost as bad

I wasn't talking to you. I was suggesting to Justin to build a basis for his projection on a factual analysis. Shows a whole lot more thought and justification for a perspective.

But since you've jumped into it ... weren't you the guy in the off season thread who would throw up projections for a player and if I remember correctly said you didn't put more than 15 minutes into your estimates?

Given your methodology it's no surprise to me that you don't have the skill set to make a comparative analysis. Maybe Justin does. It's not that freakin hard.

 

[TheRangerDude]

Did a quick spreadsheet comparing Choo and Young. Young had incredibly consistent delta between OBP and BA and it shows his minimum BA and OBP performance doesn't hold a .280BA to .350OBP spread ... conversely Choo's spread at the minimum performance retained the .350OBP level with a BA below .280.

Nice work! What I found so far just looking at Choo's data tends to agree with your last statement. Based on a trend line comparing BA vs BB/PA from his 2009 -2013 stats (seasons with 300+ PAs), I have even found that he even if he hits around .250, he still could reach OBP numbers of .350. This is exactly in agreement with what JTA posted and I don't mind pointing that out-not that he needs an ego boost though. It's worth mention though that this really isn't enough data to say anything with too much certainty from a linear trend line and all of the data points do not show always show steady increase. For instance he walked 15% of the time last season when he hit .285 but only walked 11% of the time when he batted .300 in 2009. It does appear that his ability to walk does increase/decrease with his average though as there is a positive slope for all the data. I sort want to go in and perfect this a little more though and maybe define my own metrics- I had no idea you got punished for SF flies in OBP calculations. That sort of threw a wrench in what I was trying to do, I always thought OBP=(H+BB)/PA. Turns out it is (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF) ...guess I will come back to it tomorrow. Really, this sort of calculation is really only valuable for large populations of players anyway.

Do you know of any stat sites that give you lots of different filter options, maybe even historical filter options?

 

[Windingmywatch]

Nice work! What I found so far just looking at Choo's data tends to agree with your last statement. Based on a trend line comparing BA vs BB/PA from his 2009 -2013 stats (seasons with 300+ PAs), I have even found that he even if he hits around .250, he still could reach OBP numbers of .350. This is exactly in agreement with what JTA posted and I don't mind pointing that out-not that he needs an ego boost though. It's worth mention though that this really isn't enough data to say anything with too much certainty from a linear trend line and all of the data points do not show always show steady increase. For instance he walked 15% of the time last season when he hit .285 but only walked 11% of the time when he batted .300 in 2009. It does appear that his ability to walk does increase/decrease with his average though as there is a positive slope for all the data. I sort want to go in and perfect this a little more though and maybe define my own metrics- I had no idea you got punished for SF flies in OBP calculations. That sort of threw a wrench in what I was trying to do, I always thought OBP=(H+BB)/PA. Turns out it is (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF) ...guess I will come back to it tomorrow. Really, this sort of calculation is really only valuable for large populations of players anyway.

Do you know of any stat sites that give you lots of different filter options, maybe even historical filter options?

Suggest a simpler approach. Using ESPN MLB data sorted on OBP. Found 44 players in 2013 had an OBP > or = .350. Choo was #4 w/.285/.423.

There were 10 of the 44 with a BA below .280...
Carlos Santana .280/.377
Edwin Encarnacion .272/.370
Giancarlo Stanton .249/.365
Prince Fielder .279/.362
Mike Napoli .259/.360
Andre Eithier .272/.360
Jose Bautista .259/.358
Ben Zobrist .275/.354
Justin Upton .263/.354
John Jay .276/.351

In 2012 only Santana and Zobrist plus A.J Ellis, Josh Willingham, Nick Swisher, Alex Rodriguez and David DeJesus had the sub .280BA and > or = .350OBP. Encarnacion was at .280BA so is technically above the cutoff but close.

In 2011 there were 18 who made the spread ... but only Swisher, Stanton, Zobrist and Santana were repeats.

So if I were looking to see who was able to sustain a 70 point BA to OBP spread ... I'd use two or three year populations of players who have evidenced a .70 spread ... dump them to Excel ... sort on OBP, then secondarily BA ... then identify the top 5 performers.

But right now based on a quick scan ... I'd say Santana and Zobrist might lead the "Delta Kings" with Stanton and Swisher close behind. Anything more technical than that is going to get lost in the data.

Pretty much did this in 15 minutes to get a rough perspective ... but more exact than pulling numbers out of my butt.

 

[donaldson79]

A couple of short notes from ST:

In the intrasquad game, outfielder Engel Beltre had a pair of hits and scored twice. Longshot outfield candidate Jim Adduci and infielder Brent Lillibridge also had a pair of hits for the winning team in a 7-4 seven-inning game.

They may feel the same about Washington, but this time around they acted differently when it came time for an extension. When it came to security, they simply didn’t offer as much. After two-year extensions following 2010 and 2012, Washington was given only a one-year extension through 2015.

Much of the rest of the front office and several coaches, including pitching coach Mike Maddux, all have contracts that expire at the end of 2014. Daniels’ contract runs through 2015.

The message should be clear for everybody from Daniels on down: The success train has stalled.

 

[Justinkm83]

I wasn't talking to you. I was suggesting to Justin to build a basis for his projection on a factual analysis. Shows a whole lot more thought and justification for a perspective.

But since you've jumped into it ... weren't you the guy in the off season thread who would throw up projections for a player and if I remember correctly said you didn't put more than 15 minutes into your estimates?

Given your methodology it's no surprise to me that you don't have the skill set to make a comparative analysis. Maybe Justin does. It's not that freakin hard.

If I cared enough to spend time analyzing it, I would have from the beginning. Just because someone doesn't spend time analyzing it doesn't mean they don't have the "skill set". Right now I'm going with the eyeball test. It has served me well in the past.

 

[romeo212000]

If I cared enough to spend time analyzing it, I would have from the beginning. Just because someone doesn't spend time analyzing it doesn't mean they don't have the "skill set". Right now I'm going with the eyeball test. It has served me well in the past.

Fine, just don't be surprised when people don't buy into your eyeball test. The eyeball test has been shown to be a fallacy many times over.

 

[romeo212000]

MLB Martin Perez ready to unveil a cutter - ESPN

If he can throw it with good movement consistently, the cutter could be a nice weapon for Perez.