Official 2014 Texas Rangers Spring Training Thread

[Windingmywatch]

The easy part of our schedule will be the 97 wins. The hard part will be the 65 losses.

Whoa. Put a stake in the ground with that one.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Looks like the rangers will need to start fast outta the gate again this season


"The Rangers have one of the easier early-season schedules in the American League, with more than half of their first 41 games at home. "The Rangers have had a lot of injury issues with their rotation, and maybe their early-season schedule will help buy them some time as they get their injured starters back in line."

"Thirteen of their first 41 games are against the Astros and Mariners, who could be among the weaker teams in the league, and they have a nice 10-game homestand in the middle of April as they get settled in,"

Interesting. Prompted me to look at the schedule and also see that we have 9 of the first 32 games against the A's and LAA. Sure would be nice to win at least eight of those. Not sure that we can count on fattening up against Houston and Seattle like we did last year.

 

[Justinkm83]

Encouraging outing for Texas Rangers pitcher Colby Lewis - ESPN Dallas


Hanson and Lewis appear to be pitching well. Bad news for Nick T.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Encouraging outing for Texas Rangers pitcher Colby Lewis - ESPN Dallas

Awesome! Come on, Cobra!

 

[donaldson79]

Encouraging outing for Texas Rangers pitcher Colby Lewis - ESPN Dallas


Hanson and Lewis appear to be pitching well. Bad news for Nick T.

So be it.

Tep will get his opportunity this season due to someone needing rest/injury, etc.

Whoever said, you need 10 starters when the season starts is noted again.

 

[TheRangerDude]

Suggest a simpler approach. Using ESPN MLB data sorted on OBP. Found 44 players in 2013 had an OBP > or = .350. Choo was #4 w/.285/.423.

There were 10 of the 44 with a BA below .280...
Carlos Santana .280/.377
Edwin Encarnacion .272/.370
Giancarlo Stanton .249/.365
Prince Fielder .279/.362
Mike Napoli .259/.360
Andre Eithier .272/.360
Jose Bautista .259/.358
Ben Zobrist .275/.354
Justin Upton .263/.354
John Jay .276/.351

In 2012 only Santana and Zobrist plus A.J Ellis, Josh Willingham, Nick Swisher, Alex Rodriguez and David DeJesus had the sub .280BA and > or = .350OBP. Encarnacion was at .280BA so is technically above the cutoff but close.

In 2011 there were 18 who made the spread ... but only Swisher, Stanton, Zobrist and Santana were repeats.

So if I were looking to see who was able to sustain a 70 point BA to OBP spread ... I'd use two or three year populations of players who have evidenced a .70 spread ... dump them to Excel ... sort on OBP, then secondarily BA ... then identify the top 5 performers.

But right now based on a quick scan ... I'd say Santana and Zobrist might lead the "Delta Kings" with Stanton and Swisher close behind. Anything more technical than that is going to get lost in the data.

Pretty much did this in 15 minutes to get a rough perspective ... but more exact than pulling numbers out of my butt.

I like the simplicity of the approach here but I am a tad bit more anal than that and I am actually looking at something slightly different. I am sort of a math nerd when it comes to these sort of things but I agree that the simplest approach is always the best:

"Make things as simple as possible but not simpler" - Guess the Physicist?

Anyway, what I am attempting to answer is if ones ability to walk is dependent on BA. What this would do is account for points not gained or lost in OBP by the simple change of the AVG. So, I would really need to run a ton of data to get very reasonable answer. I admit, what I did with Choo really doesn't have enough data to back it up and a method similar to yours is more appropriate.

However, I should note a few things. Mathematically or physically speaking, taking the difference between the BA and OBP doesn't really make since as they are not comparable because they have different units. BA is H/AB and OBP is (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF). Taking the difference between the two is similar to taking the difference between a force and a torque. Generally speaking if a player has very small amount of HBP and SF, your method should be fairly accurate but it losses accuracy as the count on those go up. Here's an example, say you have a player with:

AB: 500, H:150, PA: 620, BB:90, SF:20, HBP: 10 ( I know that's a lot):
Then BA= .300, OBP= .403, so your delta would be .103

But note that your BB% would be BB/PA = 90/620 = .145, so you actually walk more than the delta might indicate. If you add the BB% to the BA it is actually higher than the OBP. This is sort of what drives me nuts about baseball math. As SFs and HBP go down, they get a little close to the same but they are still different because they are normalized differently. I hope all that makes sense but let me know if it doesn't.

That all being said, if you are caparing the same thing across the board you should be able to make some sort of statement, it is just not really clear what exactly you are making a statement about since the units don't check out.

 

[donaldson79]

It was just reported.........Josh Hamilton is on crutches and is out 3 days; maybe more.

No clue on what's going on.

 

[The Commish]

17 out of the first 41 games for the Oakland A's are against HOU and SEA.

13 out of 41 isn't looking so good now.

The 1st 9 games for the LAA's are against HOU and SEA.

So yeah. The "easy early season" for the Rangers is a bit of a crock.

 

[The Commish]

It was just reported.........Josh Hamilton is on crutches and is out 3 days; maybe more.

No clue on what's going on.

Hurt his calf running the bases.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

Encouraging outing for Texas Rangers pitcher Colby Lewis - ESPN Dallas


Hanson and Lewis appear to be pitching well. Bad news for Nick T.

But good news for the Rangers. I am really counting on seeing the good Hanson.

 

[jta4437]

I like the simplicity of the approach here but I am a tad bit more anal than that and I am actually looking at something slightly different. I am sort of a math nerd when it comes to these sort of things but I agree that the simplest approach is always the best:

"Make things as simple as possible but not simpler" - Guess the Physicist?

Anyway, what I am attempting to answer is if ones ability to walk is dependent on BA. What this would do is account for points not gained or lost in OBP by the simple change of the AVG. So, I would really need to run a ton of data to get very reasonable answer. I admit, what I did with Choo really doesn't have enough data to back it up and a method similar to yours is more appropriate.

However, I should note a few things. Mathematically or physically speaking, taking the difference between the BA and OBP doesn't really make since as they are not comparable because they have different units. BA is H/AB and OBP is (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF). Taking the difference between the two is similar to taking the difference between a force and a torque. Generally speaking if a player has very small amount of HBP and SF, your method should be fairly accurate but it losses accuracy as the count on those go up. Here's an example, say you have a player with:

AB: 500, H:150, PA: 620, BB:90, SF:20, HBP: 10 ( I know that's a lot):
Then BA= .300, OBP= .403, so your delta would be .103

But note that your BB% would be BB/PA = 90/620 = .145, so you actually walk more than the delta might indicate. If you add the BB% to the BA it is actually higher than the OBP. This is sort of what drives me nuts about baseball math. As SFs and HBP go down, they get a little close to the same but they are still different because they are normalized differently. I hope all that makes sense but let me know if it doesn't.

That all being said, if you are caparing the same thing across the board you should be able to make some sort of statement, it is just not really clear what exactly you are making a statement about since the units don't check out.

And this is why people make generalized statements and opinions about some things, b/c "ain't nobody got time for that"

 

[jta4437]

Encouraging outing for Texas Rangers pitcher Colby Lewis - ESPN Dallas


Hanson and Lewis appear to be pitching well. Bad news for Nick T.

It's early, not to mention Harrison is probably going to miss some starts early on, since his back seems to get sore from breathing heavy

 

[TheRangerDude]

And this is why people make generalized statements and opinions about some things, b/c "ain't nobody got time for that"

I know you are being general and likely just referencing baseball but some people have made careers and millions of dollars by making time to understand mathematical principles and physics. Most if not all of our technological advances as a society are due to scientists that dedicated countless hours of study to these sort of things- many of which might not get that much credit when its all said and done.

 

[PDay8810]

17 out of the first 41 games for the Oakland A's are against HOU and SEA.

13 out of 41 isn't looking so good now.

The 1st 9 games for the LAA's are against HOU and SEA.

So yeah. The "easy early season" for the Rangers is a bit of a crock.

when you play your division teams 19 times that is going to happen to a degree. Guess it is a crock if the first 9 games compare to the story.

 

[donaldson79]

Hurt his calf running the bases.

Thanks. I was watching PTI and Tony Reali reported it without clarification.

 

[The Commish]

 

[PDay8810]

Jeff Samardzija: Reports from Chicago Cubs camp have manager Rick Renteria unwilling to declare his Opening Day starter, which has once again fueled speculation that Samardzija might not be with the team to accept the ball for Game 1 of the 2014 season


wonder what that would cost if the rangers had interest

 

[Justinkm83]

Jeff Samardzija: Reports from Chicago Cubs camp have manager Rick Renteria unwilling to declare his Opening Day starter, which has once again fueled speculation that Samardzija might not be with the team to accept the ball for Game 1 of the 2014 season


wonder what that would cost if the rangers had interest

Do we really want to trade for another Cubs pitcher?

 

[DT LUNA]

Thanks. I was watching PTI and Tony Reali reported it without clarification.

Talk about injury prone. He makes Ogando look like a bill of health. If Josh had been a pitcher, he would not have gotten through the 1st inning of his career.
.

 

[UK Cowboy]

It's Feliz's job to lose, but if he falters Soria and Scheppers will be there waiting to step. Frankly, I wish we would do away with the "closer" position, but that's another discussion.

Now I agree with this. There have to be situations where, say, Ross is a better matchup in the 9th than Feliz, and vice versa