Official 2014 Texas Rangers Spring Training Thread

[TheRangerDude]

There's no way you could know that

That's true... he could prove me wrong but peoples numbers tend to deflate as they get older... that's just a generally trend. Again, he could be an outlier but I wouldn't look for him to having an .400 OBP in 5 years. Mainly because even if his eye is still good, his average is likely to drop which in turn would drop OBP.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Young put up "decent" OBP numbers b/c he was hitting in the .320s & .330s, a .370/.380 OBP is not that great with those batting averages,

Young always had skeptical OBP skills but he could make up for it by being a very good hitter

Choo's not as good of a hitter but has a much superior eye at the plate, and that ages much better than a guy that relies on his bat speed to get on base

I think that is a good point. Only thing I will add is that Choo is also a very good hitter, but only against RHP.

 

[DT LUNA]

WilltheThrill...........I think that a new fresh voice in Wash's ear who sees things differently than Jackie Moore can and will be a great thing for the team. But as someone who personally knows Jackie Moore, I can tell you with 100% certainty that he often gave Wash a lot of advice and strategies that Wash chose to ignore. Also, it wasn't just Jackie's advice but Maddux's too which was often ignored. I'm sure Jackie made his share of bad calls during his time with the team, and a new change in philosophy there might be beneficial. But your continued portrayal of him as some bumbling old coot who didn't know what he was doing or rarely offered advice to Wash is grossly inaccurate.

I respect the fact you came to the defense of someone you obviously feel friendship/respectful for, which is so sorely lacking in today's world.

Very good!

 

[Justinkm83]

For some reason I just started thinking about this line-up and it crossed my mind that the bottom of the order might struggle against LH pitching (I think they might against RH too). So I decided to look up our lineup and their career AVG/OBP against LHers. The funny thing is Soto might be our best hitter against LHers. It's a good thing he's in the middle of 6,8,9 who can't get on base against LHers to save their life. I guess we'll see opening day against Lee.

Choo - .243/.340
EA - .273/.346 (almost the same vs. RH or LH)
Prince - .267/.347
Beltre - .286/.358
Rios - .287/.333
MM - .236/.295
Soto - .286/.379
Profar - .180/.281
Martin - .220/.272

 

[DT LUNA]

For some reason I just started thinking about this line-up and it crossed my mind that the bottom of the order might struggle against LH pitching (I think they might against RH too). So I decided to look up our lineup and their career AVG/OBP against LHers. The funny thing is Soto might be our best hitter against LHers. It's a good thing he's in the middle of 6,8,9 who can't get on base against LHers to save their life. I guess we'll see opening day against Lee.

Choo - .243/.340
EA - .273/.346 (almost the same vs. RH or LH)
Prince - .267/.347
Beltre - .286/.358
Rios - .287/.333
MM - .236/.295
Soto - .286/.379
Profar - .180/.281
Martin - .220/.272

Good info to know. Soto looks surprisingly good .....Thanks

 

[Justinkm83]

Note by Durrett from ST:
3B Joey Gallo had a single in his only at-bat, driving in a run. Just an observation, but he looks even bigger this spring. And I mean that as a compliment. He's just a big guy, but he can move.


I'm looking forward to seeing him play again. He's my favorite minor leaguer.

 

[TheRangerDude]

Young put up "decent" OBP numbers b/c he was hitting in the .320s & .330s, a .370/.380 OBP is not that great with those batting averages,

Young always had skeptical OBP skills but he could make up for it by being a very good hitter

Choo's not as good of a hitter but has a much superior eye at the plate, and that ages much better than a guy that relies on his bat speed to get on base

I think this is a good point but I would also say that I think hitting and walking feed off each other. I mean if you can't hit or lack power, pitchers just go after you and get you out- you don't get the opportunity to walk as much. You could actually prove this pretty easily: just look at AVG and BB/PA for a bunch of players over several seasons and see if when there AVG went down if their BB/PA went down- calculate the percentage of time that this happens or just plot it and find trends. It seems like a rational enough idea that it should hold water though.

I think my main fear for Choo would be if over time his performance against lefties continued to deflate and some point he might just become a platoon OF.

 

[jta4437]

Note by Durrett from ST:
3B Joey Gallo had a single in his only at-bat, driving in a run. Just an observation, but he looks even bigger this spring. And I mean that as a compliment. He's just a big guy, but he can move.


I'm looking forward to seeing him play again. He's my favorite minor leaguer.

Just don't get stuck on him being the 3B of the future, more likely COF/1B

 

[jta4437]

I think this is a good point but I would also say that I think hitting and walking feed off each other. I mean if you can't hit or lack power, pitchers just go after you and get you out- you don't get the opportunity to walk as much. You could actually prove this pretty easily: just look at AVG and BB/PA for a bunch of players over several seasons and see if when there AVG went down if their BB/PA went down- calculate the percentage of time that this happens or just plot it and find trends. It seems like a rational enough idea that it should hold water though.

I think my main fear for Choo would if over time his performance against lefties continued to deflate and some point he might just become a platoon OF.

Case in point, Adam Dunn, guy can't hit to save hit life, has always had a slow bat, but still puts up solid numbers OBP wise b/c he has a good eye (though Dunn's is even better than Choo's)

Difference is, Choo's bat is not nearly as slow as Dunn's, therefore stands to age much better than Young (or Dunn for that matter)

Dunn hitting .204 & .219 and having a OBPs of .333 & .320 is pretty impressive, and he still had 41/34 & 96/86 RBIs with those averages, your ultimate sink or swim hitter

So even if Choo's bat slows down he still stands to get on base at a solid clip through the length of his contract as long as he keeps his average above .250, which he should

 

[Justinkm83]

Just don't get stuck on him being the 3B of the future, more likely COF/1B

I already don't see him as a 3B. I think they should move him and get him used to other positions ASAP.

 

[jta4437]

I already don't see him as a 3B. I think they should move him and get him used to other positions ASAP.

Well on this point we agree, I think they stick with him a little bit longer, just by chance he proves them wrong, but I doubt it

About the time he reaches AA they'll have to start making that decision

 

[Justinkm83]

Well on this point we agree, I think they stick with him a little bit longer, just by chance he proves them wrong, but I doubt it

About the time he reaches AA they'll have to start making that decision

If he hits like he did in ST last year he might find himself in AA or AAA this year

 

[jta4437]

If he hits like he did in ST last year he might find himself in AA or AAA this year

.245 AVG and 165 K's at Hickory are probably a better indicator at this time, he won't be in AAA this year

He might squeak his way into AA at the end of the year

 

[Justinkm83]

.245 AVG and 165 K's at Hickory are probably a better indicator at this time, he won't be in AAA this year

He might squeak his way into AA at the end of the year

38 HR's, 19 doubles, and 5 triples in only 106 games, but yeah it's no secret he's got to cut down on the K's. I just love his swing. Effortless light tower power.

 

[TheRangerDude]

Case in point, Adam Dunn, guy can't hit to save hit life, has always had a slow bat, but still puts up solid numbers OBP wise b/c he has a good eye (though Dunn's is even better than Choo's)

Difference is, Choo's bat is not nearly as slow as Dunn's, therefore stands to age much better than Young (or Dunn for that matter)

Dunn hitting .204 & .219 and having a OBPs of .333 & .320 is pretty impressive, and he still had 41/34 & 96/86 RBIs with those averages, your ultimate sink or swim hitter

So even if Choo's bat slows down he still stands to get on base at a solid clip through the length of his contract as long as he keeps his average above .250, which he should

Dunn maybe the exception though and not the rule. I really don't think he is a very good type to compare to Choo either-pure power type. I think if you really wanted to understand anything meaningful about the statement I made above, you would really have to include stats for a whole bunch of players to get a general idea for a trend. Also, when he batted for better average, did he walk more or less per PA? I might find some spare time and make a spreadsheet, I am really curious to see if two are directly proportional consistently. Basically what this would mean is that not only do you lose points of your OBP because your BA goes down, but you lose points on your OBP because your ability to walk decreases along with your BA. I would assume the converse would be true as well. I think I could even come up with a lose conversion of AVG points lost/gained to BB lost/gained to see if the decrease is even that significant per point.

Either way, I hope he continues to get on base at the same clip- I just really don't expect him to in 4-5 years. And I think that is a pretty realistic expectation but I could definitely be wrong. If I could predict the future I don't think I would be able to find the time to post MLB baseball forums.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

38 HR's, 19 doubles, and 5 triples in only 106 games, but yeah it's no secret he's got to cut down on the K's. I just love his swing. Effortless light tower power.

I wonder what his numbers would look like at MB. Hickory and the S Atlantc League seem more conducive in better power numbers.

 

[jta4437]

Dunn maybe the exception though and not the rule. I really don't think he is a very good type to compare to Choo either-pure power type. I think if you really wanted to understand anything meaningful about the statement I made above, you would really have to include stats for a whole bunch of players to get a general idea for a trend. Also, when he batted for better average, did he walk more or less per PA? I might find some spare time and make a spreadsheet, I am really curious to see if two are directly proportional consistently. Basically what this would mean is that not only do you lose points of your OBP because your BA goes down, but you lose points on your OBP because your ability to walk decreases along with your BA. I would assume the converse would be true as well. I think I could even come up with a lose conversion of AVG points lost/gained to BB lost/gained to see if the decrease is even that significant per point.

Either way, I hope he continues to get on base at the same clip- I just really don't expect him to in 4-5 years. And I think that is a pretty realistic expectation but I could definitely be wrong. If I could predict the future I don't think I would be able to find the time to post MLB baseball forums.

Not going to do all that, just providing an example, I don't get paid to do this crap like guys on fangraphs, take what you get, Dunn just happened to jump in my head... If you want all that done you should probably go ahead and do it yourself

And I know Dunn is the exception but Choo has shown the same kind of eye and guys like that have generally shown themselves to get better over time eye wise rather than worse b/c they often have to compensate for slowing bat speed, so Choo is likely to continue getting in base at a high clip despite losing some batting average... will it be AS high, probably not but it will still be well above the league average

 

[jta4437]

I wonder what his numbers would look like at MB. Hickory and the S Atlantc League seem more conducive in better power numbers.

Myrtle Beach also tends to repress offensive numbers a bit, from what I remember

 

[jta4437]

38 HR's, 19 doubles, and 5 triples in only 106 games, but yeah it's no secret he's got to cut down on the K's. I just love his swing. Effortless light tower power.

It seems history is filled with far more of those guys that flamed out due to an inability to make consistent contact than those that made it

I like Gallo (a lot), but I'll hold my expectations low for at least another year

 

[TheRangerDude]

Not going to do all that, just providing an example, I don't get paid to do this crap like guys on fangraphs, take what you get, Dunn just happened to jump in my head... If you want all that done you should probably go ahead and do it yourself

And I know Dunn is the exception but Choo has shown the same kind of eye and guys like that have generally shown themselves to get better over time eye wise rather than worse b/c they often have to compensate for slowing bat speed, so Choo is likely to continue getting in base at a high clip despite losing some batting average... will it be AS high, probably not but it will still be well above the league average

Haha... I wasn't asking you to and I actually said I will probably do it myself at some point just out of curiosity. I will post the results after do this... it could turn out the standard deviation is so high that any results gotten from the effort are meaningless for an individual though.

As for your second statement, I will end conversation with the same thing you started it with:

You have no way of knowing that. :P