NFL Draft

[deep9er]

The below excerpt is about Chase Young at 2nd overall, but the concept is similar (not same) at 13th:


“If you’re going to pass up Player A, and you go back and you take Player D, Player D has to be equal to Player A, you know what I’m saying?” Rivera said. “Because if Player A is going to play for you for 10 years, and Player D might not, did you really get value or did you just get a whole bunch of picks?”

And considering Young is, again, the best edge rush prospect in a decade, a trade down likely wouldn’t net a player of his value, someone with an elite ceiling who plays a critical position and is a hometown hero to boot.

“We need a guy just to come in and really change our football team,” Rivera said. “To me there’s a few guys on that board that are those kind of players.”



Everyone wants a trade down to add more players, but the big assumption is the extra player(s) WILL be solid player(s). We assume the player(s) we add in rounds 2 or 3 or 4 WILL fill that hole.

The next big assumption is the guy we get at 21st or 22nd will be the same stud as what we'd get at 13th. But odds are you "diluted" the 13th pick ging that far down.

I'm fine with one small trade down but i'm also fine with none. This is a good team that needs quality, not quantity. Yes, some needs will remain, but adding two studs for 10 years isn't a bad thing. Vice a 3rd or 4th rounder that never fills the need the way we assume. If you want a trade down for a 2nd rounder, then you're really diluting the 13th. Will the 21st pick "really change our football team"?

The 49ers are already the odds on to represent the NFC in the SB. If we have holes, other teams have more. Thats just the way the cap works, you CAN'T fill every single position.

 

[deep9er]

49ers could target these three receivers on Day 3 of draft


Not seeing us drafting a WR until the 3rd round or later, but you never know?

Under this scenario Quez Watkins is the type of WR we should add.

 

[deep9er]

Ok i finally got around to looking at a draft trade value chart. It is randon off the web so not implying this is gospel.

IF we want a 2nd round pick after trading down from 13th, this give us an idea of what it'll look like.
Phil 21st plus 53rd (21st pick of round 2)
Minn 22nd plus 58th (26th pick of round 2)

If we try to get to the 20th pick, we'd need to add late round picks to the 13th:
Jax 20th plus 42nd (9th pick of round 2)

 

[poewelch84]

Ok i finally got around to looking at a draft trade value chart. It is randon off the web so not implying this is gospel.

IF we want a 2nd round pick after trading down from 13th, this give us an idea of what it'll look like.
Phil 21st plus 53rd (21st pick of round 2)
Minn 22nd plus 58th (26th pick of round 2)

If we try to get to the 20th pick, we'd need to add late round picks to the 13th:
Jax 20th plus 42nd (9th pick of round 2)

I would be okay with adding a 6th or 7th round pick. Many of the mock drafts I've seen haven't had the 49ers picking up a 2nd if they move back from 13 which I can't see them doing.

 

[deep9er]

I would be okay with adding a 6th or 7th round pick. Many of the mock drafts I've seen haven't had the 49ers picking up a 2nd if they move back from 13 which I can't see them doing.

can't see them moving down from 13th at all, or not moving down to the 20's?

 

[deep9er]

https://ninerswire.usatoday.com/gal...***********&utm_medium=dt&utm_campaign=affref


To me we should add a quality WR, so this would mean 3rd round or higher. But IMO we also need a certain type of WR, one that can get vertical.

 

[poewelch84]

can't see them moving down from 13th at all, or not moving down to the 20's?

Well depending on how the first round goes I could see them trading down from 13 but I can't see them trading down and not picking up a second round pick I believe that would be the only way they make that trade. As I've said I've seen some mocks that they face down and only get a late third and late fourth and I just don't see that happening.

 

[deep9er]

Well depending on how the first round goes I could see them trading down from 13 but I can't see them trading down and not picking up a second round pick I believe that would be the only way they make that trade. As I've said I've seen some mocks that they face down and only get a late third and late fourth and I just don't see that happening.

Ok, they would only trade down from 13th if they can get a 2nd round pick. That is why i posted those scenarios where we get a mid or late 2nd round pick. Again, not to say those will be the only options, but to give us an idea of what it'll look like.

So continuing on this scenario, the options will be something like this:

A. 13th plus 31st
B. 21st plus 31st plus late 2nd
C. 22nd plus 31st plus mid 2nd

So when you say "depending on how the first round goes", you really mean how the first 12 picks go.

 

[poewelch84]

Ok, they would only trade down from 13th if they can get a 2nd round pick. That is why i posted those scenarios where we get a mid or late 2nd round pick. Again, not to say those will be the only options, but to give us an idea of what it'll look like.

So continuing on this scenario, the options will be something like this:

A. 13th plus 31st
B. 21st plus 31st plus late 2nd
C. 22nd plus 31st plus mid 2nd

So when you say "depending on how the first round goes", you really mean how the first 12 picks go.

Yes I suspect that a player they view as being better than anyone they can get in the early 20's will still be available then yeah they make the pick at 13 if not they may trade. Then of course you have the fact that a desire to trade up might not be their if everyone is about the same. I think the best case is if one of the QB's are still available.

 

[deep9er]

Yes I suspect that a player they view as being better than anyone they can get in the early 20's will still be available then yeah they make the pick at 13 if not they may trade. Then of course you have the fact that a desire to trade up might not be their if everyone is about the same. I think the best case is if one of the QB's are still available.

Ok, so if they make the pick at 13th, that gives up adding a 2nd rounder. I'm ok with that.

Yes, it would have to be a QB.

 

[deep9er]

49ers could draft, develop Kinlaw into dominant D-lineman

Most mocks have him going before 13th, so he could have the most value for us? If he is or at least 'equal' in value to whomever is left, still think he's the pick at 13th. If not the best value, then fine going elsewhere. A top 3T is key against BOTH run and pass.

Have to admit, the more i read now the more i think WR will be the better value?

 

[Ricky Roma]

Given that SF doesn't draft BPA, and strictly goes by their guy, or trade out.....I wouldn't be surprised if they traded both their first rounders down to collect tons more picks. At 13, they'll get their shot at either a top tiered WR/DT/OL of their choice.....so with those options, there is a very good chance they trade back from that spot and still get their guy.

Staying at 13, I am fine with any one of Kinlaw, Thomas (or any of the guys who can start at guard at first) or Ruggs - although Lamb has got that dog in him that Shanahan/Lynch like.

 

[deep9er]

Iowa DL Epenesa could be ideal fit for 49ers at No. 31

Nothing against Epenesa but just don't see it?

 

[deep9er]

Given that SF doesn't draft BPA, and strictly goes by their guy, or trade out.....I wouldn't be surprised if they traded both their first rounders down to collect tons more picks. At 13, they'll get their shot at either a top tiered WR/DT/OL of their choice.....so with those options, there is a very good chance they trade back from that spot and still get their guy.

Staying at 13, I am fine with any one of Kinlaw, Thomas (or any of the guys who can start at guard at first) or Ruggs - although Lamb has got that dog in him that Shanahan/Lynch like.

Generally speaking, a bad team would want more picks and a good team higher picks. I'm not about to say Lynch won't trade down BOTH picks, but this is still a good team. This team is still favored to reach the SB.

 

[deep9er]

https://ninerswire.usatoday.com/gal...***********&utm_medium=dt&utm_campaign=affref


Ok, this looks about right. If you want to get that 3rd round player, then you give up talent at WR. I don't know if Pittman can handle vertical routes or not, but by this point in the draft i'd go for the type of WR like Quez Watkins.

My only surprise was seeing a RB taken?

 

[Ricky Roma]

Generally speaking, a bad team would want more picks and a good team higher picks. I'm not about to say Lynch won't trade down BOTH picks, but this is still a good team. This team is still favored to reach the SB.

Not really....every team wants more/higher picks. The system in place just isn't set up that way. Again....given that SF works a draft where they target 'their' guy vs. taking BPA, they are more inclined to move around if it lines up that way. That also includes moving up, but since we lack picks between 1st and 5th rounds, that's obviously limited in this years draft.

 

[deep9er]

Not really....every team wants more/higher picks. The system in place just isn't set up that way. Again....given that SF works a draft where they target 'their' guy vs. taking BPA, they are more inclined to move around if it lines up that way. That also includes moving up, but since we lack picks between 1st and 5th rounds, that's obviously limited in this years draft.

Whatever your reasoning is, this is what i'm saying now......we want more higher picks meaning we want the two 1st round picks. Don't trade down too much which is lowering these picks.

 

[Ricky Roma]

Whatever your reasoning is, this is what i'm saying now......we want more higher picks meaning we want the two 1st round picks. Don't trade down too much which is lowering these picks.

You aren't 'lowering the pick'.....you are trading back because the player you want is still there, and you've calculated given the teams around you that he'll still be there - and you gain an extra pick or two along the way.

Win/win.

 

[deep9er]

You aren't 'lowering the pick'.....you are trading back because the player you want is still there, and you've calculated given the teams around you that he'll still be there - and you gain an extra pick or two along the way.

Win/win.

All good in theory, but if you trade down from 13th to 21st for EXAMPLE, can you really predict the next 7 picks? If you trade down from 31st to the middle of the 2nd, can you predict "the player you want" will still be there 17 picks later? I'm ok with one small trade down but that post was about trading both the 13th and 31st.

 

[Ricky Roma]

All good in theory, but if you trade down from 13th to 21st for EXAMPLE, can you really predict the next 7 picks? If you trade down from 31st to the middle of the 2nd, can you predict "the player you want" will still be there 17 picks later? I'm ok with one small trade down but that post was about trading both the 13th and 31st.

You can have a very good idea if you have a specific guy you want and most believe the pick is earlier than predicted. That's exactly how Lynch/Shanahan draft.....they target their guy and don't care about what other GM's think or the mock drafts and stuff. They get their players and if they can get extra picks on top of it, it's a no-brainer.

If you are trading back 17 spots, you are getting multiple picks back, and if you gain 2 or more players you really want instead of one player, you're ahead of the game.