Lions Board 2014 Draft Rds. 1 thru 4

[lionstop1]

Well, we've briefly discussed in here that deals may be in place way before we know it. If so, how could they be so sure they can land Watkins without going up to two?

Every time this type of talk calms down, something else happens.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Well, we've briefly discussed in here that deals may be in place way before we know it. If so, how could they be so sure they can land Watkins without going up to two?

Unless St. Louis would take less value to trade down -- There is no chance Detroit is moving up to #2 overall. Someone posted the trade value charts for me -- Detroit would have to basically give up their entire draft this year or they have to give up the #10, their #1 next year and possibly another pick, depending on what St. Louis would value next year's #1.

It is obvious Detroit likes Watkins, but I think they have had multiple meetings with him, if by chance, he slips out of the top 4 picks, they want to make sure they have done all their homework on him.

I just can't see Detroit trading up any higher than #5 overall. You just have to give up way too much according to those trade value charts to move up any higher.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I would be dumbfounded if Detroit gave up more than a 3rd round pick to move up in the 1st. Only way I could see them giving up more than a 3rd is if it is for Mack or Clowney, as both of those players would vastly improve the defense.

I will be convinced Matt Millen still works for the Lions if they trade up to draft Watkins.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

[QUOTE People keep implying smoke screen but I really doubt they would do all this for that.

The smoke screen would come from whoever the Lions need trade up with. Actaully now with them making it " so apparent" and possibly showing their hand, could cost more than it should.

I do not see a smoke screen anywhere in this scenario. All Det media outlets are reporting Mayhews fascination towards Watkins. Where's the smokescreen picking at #10 when he's likely to be gone by #5. Other teams in a possible trade with Det haven't let the cat out of the bag to date not that it won't caome out at some time. I sure haven't read about it on Walter, Rotoworld, Pro Football Talk, CBS, ESPN Insider.

I do agree with Gandydancer in that all the hype about Watkins has shown their cards to all top 5 teams which could escalate the price for a trade.


I also disagree with Naughtymax somewhat regarding last years trades Oak/Miami and Dallas/SF in that the old trade formula combined with the new rookie contracts throws out the value index chart. Every trade is different. First of all Oak strictly targeted U of Hou CB DJ Hayden and moving back to Miami's #12 made sense which tells me all these pre-draft trade talks exist and same with Dal. Both those teams Oak/Dal got fleeced, IMO

 

[LPinSLC]

Two scenarios.

#10 Lions select Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA

#10 Cowboys select Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA. Cowboys move up to select Wares replacement. The Lions swap 1st round picks. Receive Cowboys 2nd, swap 3rds and give Dallas their lone 6th round pick.

#16 Lions select Hasean Clinton-Dix, FS, Alabama This drafts top rated Safety.

#45 & #47 So many variables so I'm going to list a group of players, including potential drops. I feel like several will be off the board but we see sliders every year.
Brandin Cooks WR, Oregon State. Dee Ford DE, Auburn. Kyle Van Noy OLB, BYU. Jeremiah Attaochu OLB, GT. Marqise Lee WR, USC. Kelvin Benjamin WR, FSU.

#78 Trevor Reilly OLB, Utah. Keith McGill CB, Utah. Either Utah player looks to be a value pick here if available.

#111 Richburg C, Colorado State. Marcus Martin C, USC.

#133 Chris Smith DE, Arkansas

#136 Aaron Murray QB, Georgia.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

There's several probabilities that could exist with Det drafting Watkins. As far as Det having to move up to #2 to guarantee drafting Watkins, IDK about that. Stl has drafted 6' 4" Brian Quick, 6' 0" Chris Givens, 6' 2" Austin Pettis and 5' 8" Tavon Austin all since 2011. I do not see a "have to have" regarding Watkins in STL nor does Stl need an OT having Jake Long and re-signing Saffold. Stl is extremely flexible and they do not need Clowney, (BTW he sucked balls in LB drills at his pro day workout), having DE's Quinn and Long. Jax has Henne for 2 more years and Justin Blackmon is one more FU being suspended permanently. Clev has Josh Gordon, Hawkins, Little and now Burly so the possibility for Watkins is there just like Jax but I think both try to get their QB. Any of these teams, minus Hou, "could draft Watkins as a BPA but QB trumps that, IMO, so long as they want one of Bortles, Bridgewater, Manziel, Carr. Oak has signed Schaub and have speedster Denario Moore, James Jones, Criner, Butler, Rod Streeter. Let's face the Raider's roster is kind of in shambles to a degree. Oak appears to have more need at OT (just signed Donald Penn and have last years rookie Menelik Watson and 31 yr old Khalif Barnes, they lost Velheer to AZ) and DT than a WR/CB/OLB/DE.

I know we did the other teams polls for who they pick but let's just go with the following scenario
1. Hou QB Blake Bortles
2. Atl DE Jadeveon Clowney
3. Jax Teddy Bridgewater
4. Cle David Carr (I put Carr here due to reports they favor him over anyone else and Oak, TB, Min, Ten could take Carr before they get the chance at #26 or even have the opportunity to move up. Carr is not rated this high but who thought C. Ponder would be drafted at #12 yet alone 1st rd. Maybe Clev takes Watkins or Mack or one of the OT's. This is the spot where you might have to worry if Watkins goes.
5. ????????

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Expanding on my previous Post #86

So we step into the probability at a trade with Oak at #5. Yes, they traded with Miami last year from #3 down to #12 bc it was Dion Jordan that Miami wanted and Oak had no interest in anyone other than DJ Hayden. So, they got off cheaply. Remember Oak didn't have a 2nd rd pick due to the Carson Palmer trade but got it back in the trade with Miami. Oak could play hardball with Det bc it's Watkins and they could use Watkins, just like anyone else outside of Hou or Atl in the top 10. They also have a need at OT and could look to Matthews, Robinson, Lewan or even hope Evans/Ebron is there at #10. Ebron is better than Nick Kasa or Mychal Rivera for Oak. So here goes worse/best scenarios. Oakland's #5 = 1700 pts. Detroit's #10 = 1300 pts., #45 = 450 pts., #76 = 210 pts., #111 = 72 pts.

Worse case; Oak gets Det's 2014 1st rd #10 and 2nd rd #45. OR. Oak gets Det's 2014 1st #10 3rd #76 and 2015 2nd rd. = 225 pts.

Best case; Oak gets Det's 2014 1st rd #10, 3rd #76 and maybe 4th #111. Oak gets Det's 2014 #10 and Nick Fairley.

If we're talking about a Stl. and Det. swap Stl #2 = 2600 pts., Det #10 = 1300 pts. That's more than likely Det's 2014 and 2015 1st rd picks (1300 pts. + 650 pts.) plus 2014 2nd rd 450 points

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

LPin SLC...
Max value for Detroit's #10 = 1300 pts... 3rd #76 = 210 pts... 6th #189 = 15.8 pts
Max value for Dallas'.. #16 = 1000 pts... 2nd #47 = 430 pts... 3rd #78 = 200 pts..


You're asking way to much from Dallas. jrruh Jones is dumb as hell but that trade won't happen with all of those Dallas picks going to Detroit... You could swap 1st rd picks and also get Dallas' 2014 3rd pick and possibly 4th


Here's a trade value chart to look at if you so desire; 2014 NFL Draft Trade Value Chart

 

[LPinSLC]

LPin SLC...
Max value for Detroit's #10 = 1300 pts... 3rd #76 = 210 pts... 6th #189 = 15.8 pts
Max value for Dallas'.. #16 = 1000 pts... 2nd #47 = 430 pts... 3rd #78 = 200 pts..


You're asking way to much from Dallas. jrruh Jones is dumb as hell but that trade won't happen with all of those Dallas picks going to Detroit... You could swap 1st rd picks and also get Dallas' 2014 3rd pick and possibly 4th


Here's a trade value chart to look at if you so desire; 2014 NFL Draft Trade Value Chart

All of those picks? Detroit would only gain a 2nd rounder. Swap a couple spots in Dallas' favor and throw them either the only tradable 4th or 6th. I'm aware of the chart. It's not the Bible.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Clinton-Dix is my favorite FS in this whole draft.

 

[LPinSLC]

QUOTE=Big_Blue_72;4771072]Clinton-Dix is my favorite FS in this whole draft.[/QUOTE]

I'd love to get him. People are looking strictly at the CB's as the only way to improve the secondary. I'm expecting Slay to have a nice season.

 

[broncosmitty]

I need to see a high round safety. I need it. In the worst way.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

LPinSLC.. All I was saying is you have Dallas giving up their 1st 2nd 3rd round picks which = 1630


While Detroit is giving back to Dallas their 1st 3rd 6th round which = 1525.8


Detroit would be receiving 104.2 points to the good for them which equals receiving pick #99 on top of all they already got.... the point values need to be fairly equal when your trading a #10 for a #16. hell, Dallas traded their 2013 1st round #18 overall last year to SF for their 2013 1st #31 overall for SF 3rd round pick.. Dallas got fleeced as that was a dumb trade value wise on their part but it's highly unlikely Dallas with give up their 1st rd., 2nd rd. and 3rd rd picks to move up to 6 spots for Det's 1st 3rd and 6th... If you could pull off a trade like that, I'd be ecstatic...

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

QUOTE=Big_Blue_72;4771072]Clinton-Dix is my favorite FS in this whole draft.

I'd love to get him. People are looking strictly at the CB's as the only way to improve the secondary. I'm expecting Slay to have a nice season.[/QUOTE]

Drafting Clinton-Dix, JMO, is the easiest way to improve the secondary. It is so much easier for a Safety to come in and make an impact in their 1st year than it is for a CB to do so in 2 years... look at Eric Reid from SF this last year. Pro-Bowl. Granted he was a SS but still...

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I need to see a high round safety. I need it. In the worst way.

in a big way smitty but with all this WR shit talk, it looks like it won't happen getting Dix or even Pryor. I'd rather have a known commodity in a coverage safety like Dix than hope Pryor reaches his potential for the mere fact you'd have two coverage safeties in Dix and Quin who still provide good support against the run and both can blitz, cover the deep, or move over into the nickel/slot.

 

[LPinSLC]

LPinSLC.. All I was saying is you have Dallas giving up their 1st 2nd 3rd round picks which = 1630


While Detroit is giving back to Dallas their 1st 3rd 6th round which = 1525.8


Detroit would be receiving 104.2 points to the good for them which equals receiving pick #99 on top of all they already got.... the point values need to be fairly equal when your trading a #10 for a #16. hell, Dallas traded their 2013 1st round #18 overall last year to SF for their 2013 1st #31 overall for SF 3rd round pick.. Dallas got fleeced as that was a dumb trade value wise on their part but it's highly unlikely Dallas with give up their 1st rd., 2nd rd. and 3rd rd picks to move up to 6 spots for Det's 1st 3rd and 6th... If you could pull off a trade like that, I'd be ecstatic...

BB72, I mentioned the lone tradable 4th as a possibility. These charts are used to give a rough numerical value to draft positions. Do you believe teams are pulling out their draft calculators from a website? I get what you are saying but trades rarely match up to the "chart" value. Top ten picks are valued higher for a reason.

It was a Hypothetical trade. I could see Dallas trying to give their fans Wares replacement. What would they be willing to give up to get there? All guess work.

 

[broncosmitty]

in a big way smitty but with all this WR shit talk, it looks like it won't happen getting Dix or even Pryor. I'd rather have a known commodity in a coverage safety like Dix than hope Pryor reaches his potential for the mere fact you'd have two coverage safeties in Dix and Quin who still provide good support against the run and both can blitz, cover the deep, or move over into the nickel/slot.

The bold is such a dream scenario for me. Id love to see Quin function in that role. With Levy being a solid(probably much more than solid) coverage backer, three safeties and DL on the field leaves you with high end ability in coverage and tackling. I loved the Quin signing but I've wanted to see three capable safeties for awhile. (No offense to Don Carey, he did well last season, just doesn't cut it for me.). And I don't see any corner being capable of improving the coverage, this upcoming season. (I fear Mayhew trading up for another offensive skill player. He's shown he'll do it and I don't like it. Scares me something fierce.)

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Bentley is an absolute PI joke a CB and he plays the slot most outside when he was hurt and Carey took over. I'd much rather have Carey over in the slot than Bentley. But having the threesome of Quin, Clinton-Dix and Ihedigbo would be nothing more than a dream considering Mayhew doing the right thing from a defensive perspective. I could actually swap Ihedigbo out for Carey in a 3rd and longer than 10 situation.

 

[tpaulus_2]

The bold is such a dream scenario for me. Id love to see Quin function in that role. With Levy being a solid(probably much more than solid) coverage backer, three safeties and DL on the field leaves you with high end ability in coverage and tackling. I loved the Quin signing but I've wanted to see three capable safeties for awhile. (No offense to Don Carey, he did well last season, just doesn't cut it for me.). And I don't see any corner being capable of improving the coverage, this upcoming season. (I fear Mayhew trading up for another offensive skill player. He's shown he'll do it and I don't like it. Scares me something fierce.)

What's wrong with Don Carey? I mean he is what he is- a reserve player- but he's at least a good back-up who is still growing. He made a few nice plays last year in limited action, some nice tackles in the open field and a couple behind the line of scrimmage. I don't mind him being the 3rd safety one bit. Now, if he was named the starter this offseason, then I could see your beef, but he's just a fill-in. Not a bad guy to have on the roster... gives us some depth in the secondary and doesn't cost much...

Idk, feel free to dislike him, I'm just curious why? He does his particular job pretty well. He's a role player who doesn't suck, so that's something, lol...

 

[Old Lion]

What's wrong with Don Carey? I mean he is what he is- a reserve player- but he's at least a good back-up who is still growing. He made a few nice plays last year in limited action, some nice tackles in the open field and a couple behind the line of scrimmage. I don't mind him being the 3rd safety one bit. Now, if he was named the starter this offseason, then I could see your beef, but he's just a fill-in. Not a bad guy to have on the roster... gives us some depth in the secondary and doesn't cost much...

Idk, feel free to dislike him, I'm just curious why? He does his particular job pretty well. He's a role player who doesn't suck, so that's something, lol...

Compared to John Wendling, Carey is a god.