Just how good ARE the Chiefs?

[WalkerBoh]

Why they are not using Bowe that much on the offense this year is beyond me.

There have been three theories floated by Chiefs fans as to why this is the case:

1) Smith is unable to throw for distance.

2) Smith is unwilling to throw for distance, and would rather keep to the high percentage, shorter passes.

3) Smith is not being asked to throw for distance by the coaches.

Most of the money so far is on choice #2. They think he's too scared of turning the ball over to throw long. And since Bowe is the deep threat, he's not getting much work as a result.

 

[Morpheus]

So by your own logic in BOLD, Smith's QB play has made the Chiefs defense a lot better. So you have to give Smith credit for making the Defense better, by extending drives and winning the field position game. Yet it seems like you believe the only reason the Chiefs are doing good is solely because of their defense.

I agree that Smith is helping out the defense by not turning the ball over and putting the defense in a short field situation, but that is only part of the equation, the running game is also a big part of that TOP advantage.

And it's tit for tat. If the defense was struggling, the Chiefs offense would find it difficult to put up points to keep up in a shootout. So far they have executed well against the bottom half of the league and yes, Dallas is a bottom half team even though they have a top ranked offense. Their defense is dysfunctional.

I think the 2nd half of the season is going to present bigger challenges for this defense and the Chiefs offense will have trouble keeping pace in scoring.

 

[rmilia1]

Not true at all, and if you've read the whole of my posts you would know how inaccurate your statement is. Perhaps you would not have made it, in fact. I absolutely believe Smith helps make the Chiefs defense better by not making many mistakes and turning the ball over, which puts the D in a bad spot. Even if I have not spelled it out as plainly as that, my constant focus on the complete team effort throughout this thread makes it clear I believe this.

At the same time, Smith's inability to take his offense and pull away from opponents is itself a liability to his defense, because as games grind on it increases pressure for the defense.

But overall I will gladly acknowledge Smith's play has helped the Chiefs. And I repeat, if you'd read the entire thread, you would already know that.

??? KC has a 94 point differential this year second only to your Broncos. By definition the Chiefs are the second most dominating team in the league when it comes to "pulling away from opponents".

 

[WalkerBoh]

??? KC has a 94 point differential this year second only to your Broncos. By definition the Chiefs are the second most dominating team in the league when it comes to "pulling away from opponents".

Wow.... It's obvious you haven't watched a single Chiefs game, and are simply reading stats and records.

1) Point differential is nice, but how many of those points were scored by the offense in the 3rd anf 4th quarters? (The time in a game where teams actually pull away from opponents, "by definition".)

2) How many points in the 3rd and 4th quarters has the Chiefs Defense allowed?

I can wait......

 

[cdumler7]

So by your own logic in BOLD, Smith's QB play has made the Chiefs defense a lot better. So you have to give Smith credit for making the Defense better, by extending drives and winning the field position game. Yet it seems like you believe the only reason the Chiefs are doing good is solely because of their defense.

Obviously you have read this whole thread if you are saying that. Bronco fans have given Smith his credit for being a part of the solution not the problem. Last year the Chiefs possibly had the worst quarterback play of any team especially when it came to turning the ball over causing the defense to be in a lot of bad spots with short fields. By completing the short safe throws and the Chiefs being a top 10 run offense that helps the defense in keeping the game shorter by the clock constantly moving and like you said winning the field position game. But it is not like Smith is taking the team on these long drives very often to put the other team away. His offense averages 19 first downs a game which puts them around 18th in the NFL while the defense is only giving up 16 which puts them at 2nd in the NFL. The Chiefs defense is giving the offense ample opportunities to do things throughout the game compared to any other team in the NFL yet they are at this moment averaging 1.4 punts per offensive score (that includes field goals) which puts them 23rd in the league. That means the Chiefs offense has more opportunities than most yet fail to score on as regular basis as even average in the NFL.

 

[MHSL82]

Not my work: I read it elsewhere.

---------------------------------------------

Conservative, ball-control offense and field position isn't sexy but it wins football games.*A few things that cannot be emphasized enough:

KC #1 in average Offense starting position (own 34.4) and average Opponent starting position (22.2)

The NFL average for starting field position is own 27.8.

At an NFL average of 13 drives per game, the Chiefs needed 86 FEWER yards a game in total offense to have the same scoring chances as NFL averages predict.

On Defense compared to the NFL average of 13 drives per game, the Chiefs' Opponents have needed 73 MORE yards a game in total offense to have the same scoring chances as NFL averages predict.

Overall, the Chiefs can get out-gained by nearly 160 yards per game with their field position averages and still score the same number of points. That's what taking care of the football gives you, yet doesn't show up on the stat sheet.

This all leads to*KC Opponents' % of drives leading to scores at the lowest in the NFL (18.3%). Add to that the opponent turnover rate that is nearly that high (16.3%)

The D gives up a ridiculously low 0.93 points per drive. That is about HALF the NFL average. The best full-year NFL team in the last 10 years was 1.0 (2009 Jets, 2006 Ravens, 2005 Bears)

SF lead the NFL in these same statistical categories in 2011. It's not an accident.

 

[Morpheus]

No one has said hes a top 5 QB man. No one has said he is the main reason the team has turned it around. Im simply giving his part of the credit instead of trying to say the Chiefs are doing it in spite of him. I dont get why thats tough to comprehend and I dont even give 2 fucks about Alex Smith but to listen to you guys pretty much any guy off the street could be playing QB for KC and they would still be 8-0 which is utterly preposterous. Stats can be used to pretty much say anything you want them to like I could say that Matt Ryan will undoubtedly end up a far superior QB to Peyton Manning because through the first 5.5 years of their career Ryan has more Td's, less INT's, more yards, better QB rating, better ypa and a far better record overrall so its 100% certainty that he will eclipse Mannings accomplishments because the stats say so.... See how stupid that is??? You know whats not stupid?? Winning.

You say you don't give two fucks abut Alex Smith but on page two you said, and I quote,

"Im done second guessing Alex Smith man. Guy is 27-5-1 in his last 33 starts, nobody in the league ( including Peyton ) has been better. I may have questions about a few things involving the Chiefs but Alex Smith isn't one of them. Guy is a straight up winner. Period.".

Sounds a lot like you are crediting Alex Smith with a large amount of both the 49ers and the Chiefs success during the time he started.

 

[rmilia1]

Wow.... It's obvious you haven't watched a single Chiefs game, and are simply reading stats and records.

1) Point differential is nice, but how many of those points were scored by the offense in the 3rd anf 4th quarters? (The time in a game where teams actually pull away from opponents, "by definition".)

2) How many points in the 3rd and 4th quarters has the Chiefs Defense allowed?

I can wait......

OK Ill play along. KC is +44 in the second half of games this year ( 2nd best in the NFL), the Chiefs are +31 in the 4th quarter of games this year ( BEST in the NFL). KC scored late to beat Dallas ( outscored them in the 4th), KC scored late to put away Philly ( turning a 3 point game into a 10 point win), KC scored 21 straight point ( 14 in the 4th quarter ) to take a 10-7 halftime game with the Giants to a 31-7 win, KC scored late against Tennessee to turn a 2 point game into a 9 point win and KC outscored Oakland 17-0 in the second half ( 10-0 in the 4th ) to turn a tied game into a 17 point win. Not sure what how many points the D has given up in the second half has to do with the offense scoring to put teams away but to answer your question the D hasnt given up much.

 

[Morpheus]

I said the Broncos were the best team in the NFL and that John Elway was the greatest QB of all time. Do you read the posts?? Alright Leaving this time for real. You guys have a great season

Later Jackass.

 

[rmilia1]

You say you don't give two fucks abut Alex Smith but on page two you said, and I quote,

"Im done second guessing Alex Smith man. Guy is 27-5-1 in his last 33 starts, nobody in the league ( including Peyton ) has been better. I may have questions about a few things involving the Chiefs but Alex Smith isn't one of them. Guy is a straight up winner. Period.".

Sounds a lot like you are crediting Alex Smith with a large amount of both the 49ers and the Chiefs success during the time he started.

Sure man, QBs get the credit when a team is good and get the blame when they arent. Just the way it is. I was in ATL a few weeks ago for the NE/ATL game and ALL the talk radio shows were bashing the shit out of Ryan despite the fact he tore it up that game. Im sure you guys will be MORE than pleased to blame Smith if and when the Chiefs finally lose so lets give him some props for being the best winner in the NFL at his position over the last few years.

 

[iknowftbll]

??? KC has a 94 point differential this year second only to your Broncos. By definition the Chiefs are the second most dominating team in the league when it comes to "pulling away from opponents".

Have you watched a Chiefs game? Do you even watch football in general? Point differential is just the surface. Consider:

The Broncos beat the Raiders 37-21. A few weeks later they beat the Jaguars 35-19. They won both games by 16 points. One was a blowout win, the other was not. The game against the Raiders was not in question at all. The Broncos led at one point 37-14 and played soft defense for the 4th quarter, allowing a garbage time score. The Jaguars game was more contested, being a 2 point game at halftime and after the Jags first series of the 2nd half (scores of 14-12 and 21-19 respectively). If you watched both games you would call the win over the Raiders a blowout and the win over the Jags a decisive win in a contested game. If you just looked at the box score you may not know this about these games and assume they were both blowouts.

Likewise if you just look at point differential you may assume the Chiefs are running away with games because they've scored 192 points and allowed only 98. But actually watching games helps develop a better picture. The points do have a solid point differential, but they have been in some very contested games. The Broncos with their +125 point differential have only run away one game from kickoff to finish, and that's the game against the Raiders. They generally have been a more dominate team in the second half, but you wouldn't necessarily know this just by looking at point differential. So you can't just look at point differential or even individual box scores and assume a team has dominated opponents based off of this metric. Just like you can't look at a QB's W-L record and get an accurate picture of how good a player he is. There is much more to it than that.

Wow.... It's obvious you haven't watched a single Chiefs game, and are simply reading stats and records.

1) Point differential is nice, but how many of those points were scored by the offense in the 3rd anf 4th quarters? (The time in a game where teams actually pull away from opponents, "by definition".)

2) How many points in the 3rd and 4th quarters has the Chiefs Defense allowed?

I can wait......

Truth.

 

[iknowftbll]

You say you don't give two fucks abut Alex Smith but on page two you said, and I quote,

"Im done second guessing Alex Smith man. Guy is 27-5-1 in his last 33 starts, nobody in the league ( including Peyton ) has been better. I may have questions about a few things involving the Chiefs but Alex Smith isn't one of them. Guy is a straight up winner. Period.".

Sounds a lot like you are crediting Alex Smith with a large amount of both the 49ers and the Chiefs success during the time he started.

He also said he doesn't care about stats, but a QB's W-L record is an individual stat. One that is derived by the play of the entire team, no less. It's all very amusing.

 

[Morpheus]

??? KC has a 94 point differential this year second only to your Broncos. By definition the Chiefs are the second most dominating team in the league when it comes to "pulling away from opponents".

Wow! Again leaning on the stats and I'll bet has not watched a single game.

Look at the teams they have played.

Bottom half offenses except the Cowboys.

Defense scoring 5 TD's, so subtract that and they fall to middle of the pack in point differential.

And the Defense get more credit for the point differential than the offense.

Again, take the 5 Defensive TD's away and the Chiefs offense is averaging 19.5 PPG.

That would be in the bottom 3rd of the NFL.

 

[cdumler7]

OK Ill play along. KC is +44 in the second half of games this year ( 2nd best in the NFL), the Chiefs are +31 in the 4th quarter of games this year ( BEST in the NFL). KC scored late to beat Dallas ( outscored them in the 4th), KC scored late to put away Philly ( turning a 3 point game into a 10 point win), KC scored 21 straight point ( 14 in the 4th quarter ) to take a 10-7 halftime game with the Giants to a 31-7 win, KC scored late against Tennessee to turn a 2 point game into a 9 point win and KC outscored Oakland 17-0 in the second half ( 10-0 in the 4th ) to turn a tied game into a 17 point win. Not sure what how many points the D has given up in the second half has to do with the offense scoring to put teams away but to answer your question the D hasnt given up much.

Hard to take you too seriously when your stats are a little off. Might want to look into the team plus or minus points for the 4th quarter. Broncos have +63 on the year so not sure how the Chiefs are 1st at +31?

 

[rmilia1]

As an FYI my 2 best buddies are HUGE Chiefs fans ( part of the curse of living in Iowa ) so Ive probably seen more of the Chiefs this year than anyone posting in this thread. Actually going to the Chiefs/Broncos game in KC on the first. Should be a blast, went down last year for the KC/ATL game. There were about 10 Falcons fans in the whole joint but it was fun as hell.

 

[rmilia1]

Hard to take you too seriously when your stats are a little off. Might want to look into the team plus or minus points for the 4th quarter. Broncos have +63 on the year so not sure how the Chiefs are 1st at +31?

Hmmm. Ill look at that, not sure why it has KC #1. Doesnt matter though. Point still stands that KC has been more than adequate at pulling away from teams and putting them away which is what the initial question was.

 

[Morpheus]

Not my work: I read it elsewhere.

---------------------------------------------

Conservative, ball-control offense and field position isn't sexy but it wins football games.*A few things that cannot be emphasized enough:

KC #1 in average Offense starting position (own 34.4) and average Opponent starting position (22.2)

The NFL average for starting field position is own 27.8.

At an NFL average of 13 drives per game, the Chiefs needed 86 FEWER yards a game in total offense to have the same scoring chances as NFL averages predict.

On Defense compared to the NFL average of 13 drives per game, the Chiefs' Opponents have needed 73 MORE yards a game in total offense to have the same scoring chances as NFL averages predict.

Overall, the Chiefs can get out-gained by nearly 160 yards per game with their field position averages and still score the same number of points. That's what taking care of the football gives you, yet doesn't show up on the stat sheet.

This all leads to*KC Opponents' % of drives leading to scores at the lowest in the NFL (18.3%). Add to that the opponent turnover rate that is nearly that high (16.3%)

The D gives up a ridiculously low 0.93 points per drive. That is about HALF the NFL average. The best full-year NFL team in the last 10 years was 1.0 (2009 Jets, 2006 Ravens, 2005 Bears)

SF lead the NFL in these same statistical categories in 2011. It's not an accident.

Good info. What it does not say is that is against the bottom half ranked teams in the league.

It is week 8. I would love to see those stats for the last 8 games of the season.

 

[cdumler7]

As an FYI my 2 best buddies are HUGE Chiefs fans ( part of the curse of living in Iowa ) so Ive probably seen more of the Chiefs this year than anyone posting in this thread. Actually going to the Chiefs/Broncos game in KC on the first. Should be a blast, went down last year for the KC/ATL game. There were about 10 Falcons fans in the whole joint but it was fun as hell.

Before making claims like that you might want to step back and say "is this going to be really stupid what I am about to say?" I live in Kansas and have seen every Chiefs game this year. My best friend has 2 season tickets to the Chiefs every year so I go to about 3 games a year. I have actually been to Arrowhead more times than I have Mile High in my lifetime. Thankfully most Chiefs fans are a little more respectful and intelligent than you and I actually enjoy talking with them at the stadium.

 

[rmilia1]

Wow! Again leaning on the stats and I'll bet has not watched a single game.

Look at the teams they have played.

Bottom half offenses except the Cowboys.

Defense scoring 5 TD's, so subtract that and they fall to middle of the pack in point differential.

And the Defense get more credit for the point differential than the offense.

Again, take the 5 Defensive TD's away and the Chiefs offense is averaging 19.5 PPG.

That would be in the bottom 3rd of the NFL.

Why would you take away the defensive touchdowns?? All counts the same on the scoreboard when it comes to putting teams away. Should we take off ST scores and XP's and FG's as well?? LOL

 

[cdumler7]

Hmmm. Ill look at that, not sure why it has KC #1. Doesnt matter though. Point still stands that KC has been more than adequate at pulling away from teams and putting them away which is what the initial question was.

Could that also be that their defense is giving up the fewest 4th quarter points of any team in the league? Hmmm might want to look into that as well...I'll give you a hint they are #1 in that category and that is actually true.