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iknowftbll
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The Broncos have reached their bye week, and as much as I know this team needs the time off, I am already antsy waiting for the matchup with the Chargers following the break. But I also think it's worth taking a look at the one team in the league that has a better record than the Broncos, especially since that one team is a rival! And notice I said "has a better record" and not "is better than." Let's take a look at the Chiefs as they and the Broncos have reached the halfway mark in their respective schedules.
Let me start by saying this. I think the Chiefs are a good team. This is not an attempt to discredit them on a fantastic start, an 8-0 record, and rebounding after a horrid 2-14 season last year. This is a good team. You don't get to 8-0 if you are not a good team.
But...(There's always a "but" and you knew it was coming!)
But a look not so much at who they've beat but how and when they beat them is why I think the Broncos will be able to handle them. I'm not going to use the old "they haven't played anyone good" argument because they have played everyone on their schedule. After all, out of 8 games, the Chiefs have played the same teams the Broncos have played in 5 of them. Again, I stress that when and how a team plays is just as important to analyzing a body of work. So let's take a look at the Chiefs first half of the season:
@ Jacksonville: Chiefs 28, Jaguars 2. Impressive win. "Sure, it was the Jaguars, blah, blah, blah." The Chiefs went on the road and their defense pitched a shutout. That's hard to do, even against the Jaguars.
vs Cowboys: Chiefs 17, Cowboys 16. Are the Cowboys a good offense? Yes, they are. Is it impressive to hold them to only 16? Yes it is. But the Cowboys are also one of the most epically inconsistent teams of this era. Plus they drew the misfortune of playing the Chiefs in their home opener. The Cowboys first road game, the Chiefs first home game. A win is a win, but I wouldn't read too much into this.
@ Eagles: Chiefs 26, Eagles 16. This win had everyone sitting up and taking notice. The Chiefs went into Philadelphia and kept that "high powered" offense under wraps. I think what really happened is a case of sports talking head premature ejaculation. The Eagles were a flashy new gimmick those first few weeks, but over time we have learned the truth about them: They are a below average offense that caught a few teams with their pants down. The Eagles are averaging 22 points per game as of now. High powered offense, my tail feathers.
vs Giants: Chiefs 31, Giants 7. Impressive win. Sure, they got the Giants in the midst of their 0-6 the sky is falling dumpster fire of a start. But a good team takes advantage of its opponents' weaknesses, and the Chiefs did that in this game. As I recall they added a TD on defense to help dress up the scoreboard.
@ Titans: Chiefs 26, Titans 17. Would the Chiefs have won this game if Locker were available to start? It's impossible to prove. My guess is they benefitted from getting to play against a backup QB.
vs Raiders: Chiefs 24, Raiders 7. Solid win. I can't take anything from this one. The Chiefs held serve against a Raiders team that had beat them 6 straight years in KC.
vs Texans: Chiefs 17, Texans 16. If you think that having Schaub and Foster available would not have made a difference in this one... The truth is the backups get paid too. But to say the Chiefs did not benefit from getting a guy making his first NFL start and Foster leaving early is football ignorance at its worst.
vs Browns: Chiefs 23, Browns 17. Once again, the Chiefs draw a backup QB. This time a third choice. And that third choice lit them up for nearly 300 yards. The Browns probably are not as bad as they get blamed for. They play solid defense. But on offense they bring out a guy who once again is making his first start of the season. Tell me this did not benefit the Chiefs. Go ahead. Say it with a straight face.
So three of their opponents had their backup QBs in. In their last two games they faced backup QBs at home and still only won by a combined 7 points. This defense has caught a lot of breaks.
We hear a lot of sports pundits tell us the Chiefs offense has done what it has had to do, but is that even true? As we saw from the Browns game yesterday, they lack the ability to pull away from an opponent. An opponent that is downright anemic on offense. And unless the Chiefs make a blockbuster trade, we pretty much know what there is to know about the Chiefs offense. This is to say there really isn't any reason to expect them to break out and start piling up points and offensive production on a level significantly higher than what they already have.
This brings me to the inevitable comparison to the Broncos. So many have talked about the matchup between these teams. The league's best offense facing off against the league's best defense. I question the truth of this hype. This is because I don't think the Chiefs are the league's best defense. They are a top 5 unit, without a doubt, and I will credit them for keeping their offense in games. But they have had the football gods smile on them a couple times this season.
And like the Broncos schedule, the Chiefs schedule through the second half of the season is a gauntlet. But unlike the Broncos, the Chiefs are pretty much tapped out on expected production. They still have two games against the Chargers (who are inconsistent, but can be very explosive), a trip to play the Redskins (who should have not problem racking up ground yards against the Chiefs mediocre run defense), a trip to play the Raiders (who may be putting a few of the pieces together and will get up for a rivalry game) and of course, two games against the Broncos (who are so good on offense that even with a performance that included 3 turnovers and a safety still put up 33 points, two higher than the Chiefs high this season). And all that ignores the fact that the Chiefs travel to Buffalo next to face a feisty Bills team where the Chiefs have historically struggled.
But unlike the Chiefs, we have not seen the best the Broncos have to offer, specifically on defense. With Von Miller playing and Wesley Woodyard back in the huddle running the defense, this unit has its best football ahead of it. We caught a slight glimpse of that yesterday. I made a statement on another thread that the Broncos defense from this point forward will actually be better than the Chiefs defense the rest of the way. We'll see if I'm right. I'm confident I am. And if I am, this is bad news for the Chiefs, and really the rest of the league.
Again, this is not to say the Chiefs are not a good team. 8-0 is pretty impressive no matter how you got there and what breaks you caught along the way. But there is a lot to indicate this team will see some losses in the second half of the season. BIG losses. I have no doubt the Broncos hang 40 on them in Denver, and even though Kansas City is always a tough venue for the Broncos, I don't see the Chiefs keeping the Broncos under 30 even in Arrowhead. I think the Chargers in San Diego and the Colts are both candidates to hang 30 on them as well. The Colts already manhandled two of the better defenses in the league in Seattle and San Francisco, averaging over 30 points in those two games. The Redskins in Washington are another candidate to ring them up.
Considering the Chiefs are not built to win a shootout, any team that can get 28 or so points against them has a solid shot at winning. So I've identified five potential games in which the Chiefs may be looking at needing 30 or more points to win. Can they do it five times?
I'll be interested to see if they can do it once.
Your thoughts?
Let me start by saying this. I think the Chiefs are a good team. This is not an attempt to discredit them on a fantastic start, an 8-0 record, and rebounding after a horrid 2-14 season last year. This is a good team. You don't get to 8-0 if you are not a good team.
But...(There's always a "but" and you knew it was coming!)
But a look not so much at who they've beat but how and when they beat them is why I think the Broncos will be able to handle them. I'm not going to use the old "they haven't played anyone good" argument because they have played everyone on their schedule. After all, out of 8 games, the Chiefs have played the same teams the Broncos have played in 5 of them. Again, I stress that when and how a team plays is just as important to analyzing a body of work. So let's take a look at the Chiefs first half of the season:
@ Jacksonville: Chiefs 28, Jaguars 2. Impressive win. "Sure, it was the Jaguars, blah, blah, blah." The Chiefs went on the road and their defense pitched a shutout. That's hard to do, even against the Jaguars.
vs Cowboys: Chiefs 17, Cowboys 16. Are the Cowboys a good offense? Yes, they are. Is it impressive to hold them to only 16? Yes it is. But the Cowboys are also one of the most epically inconsistent teams of this era. Plus they drew the misfortune of playing the Chiefs in their home opener. The Cowboys first road game, the Chiefs first home game. A win is a win, but I wouldn't read too much into this.
@ Eagles: Chiefs 26, Eagles 16. This win had everyone sitting up and taking notice. The Chiefs went into Philadelphia and kept that "high powered" offense under wraps. I think what really happened is a case of sports talking head premature ejaculation. The Eagles were a flashy new gimmick those first few weeks, but over time we have learned the truth about them: They are a below average offense that caught a few teams with their pants down. The Eagles are averaging 22 points per game as of now. High powered offense, my tail feathers.
vs Giants: Chiefs 31, Giants 7. Impressive win. Sure, they got the Giants in the midst of their 0-6 the sky is falling dumpster fire of a start. But a good team takes advantage of its opponents' weaknesses, and the Chiefs did that in this game. As I recall they added a TD on defense to help dress up the scoreboard.
@ Titans: Chiefs 26, Titans 17. Would the Chiefs have won this game if Locker were available to start? It's impossible to prove. My guess is they benefitted from getting to play against a backup QB.
vs Raiders: Chiefs 24, Raiders 7. Solid win. I can't take anything from this one. The Chiefs held serve against a Raiders team that had beat them 6 straight years in KC.
vs Texans: Chiefs 17, Texans 16. If you think that having Schaub and Foster available would not have made a difference in this one... The truth is the backups get paid too. But to say the Chiefs did not benefit from getting a guy making his first NFL start and Foster leaving early is football ignorance at its worst.
vs Browns: Chiefs 23, Browns 17. Once again, the Chiefs draw a backup QB. This time a third choice. And that third choice lit them up for nearly 300 yards. The Browns probably are not as bad as they get blamed for. They play solid defense. But on offense they bring out a guy who once again is making his first start of the season. Tell me this did not benefit the Chiefs. Go ahead. Say it with a straight face.
So three of their opponents had their backup QBs in. In their last two games they faced backup QBs at home and still only won by a combined 7 points. This defense has caught a lot of breaks.
We hear a lot of sports pundits tell us the Chiefs offense has done what it has had to do, but is that even true? As we saw from the Browns game yesterday, they lack the ability to pull away from an opponent. An opponent that is downright anemic on offense. And unless the Chiefs make a blockbuster trade, we pretty much know what there is to know about the Chiefs offense. This is to say there really isn't any reason to expect them to break out and start piling up points and offensive production on a level significantly higher than what they already have.
This brings me to the inevitable comparison to the Broncos. So many have talked about the matchup between these teams. The league's best offense facing off against the league's best defense. I question the truth of this hype. This is because I don't think the Chiefs are the league's best defense. They are a top 5 unit, without a doubt, and I will credit them for keeping their offense in games. But they have had the football gods smile on them a couple times this season.
And like the Broncos schedule, the Chiefs schedule through the second half of the season is a gauntlet. But unlike the Broncos, the Chiefs are pretty much tapped out on expected production. They still have two games against the Chargers (who are inconsistent, but can be very explosive), a trip to play the Redskins (who should have not problem racking up ground yards against the Chiefs mediocre run defense), a trip to play the Raiders (who may be putting a few of the pieces together and will get up for a rivalry game) and of course, two games against the Broncos (who are so good on offense that even with a performance that included 3 turnovers and a safety still put up 33 points, two higher than the Chiefs high this season). And all that ignores the fact that the Chiefs travel to Buffalo next to face a feisty Bills team where the Chiefs have historically struggled.
But unlike the Chiefs, we have not seen the best the Broncos have to offer, specifically on defense. With Von Miller playing and Wesley Woodyard back in the huddle running the defense, this unit has its best football ahead of it. We caught a slight glimpse of that yesterday. I made a statement on another thread that the Broncos defense from this point forward will actually be better than the Chiefs defense the rest of the way. We'll see if I'm right. I'm confident I am. And if I am, this is bad news for the Chiefs, and really the rest of the league.
Again, this is not to say the Chiefs are not a good team. 8-0 is pretty impressive no matter how you got there and what breaks you caught along the way. But there is a lot to indicate this team will see some losses in the second half of the season. BIG losses. I have no doubt the Broncos hang 40 on them in Denver, and even though Kansas City is always a tough venue for the Broncos, I don't see the Chiefs keeping the Broncos under 30 even in Arrowhead. I think the Chargers in San Diego and the Colts are both candidates to hang 30 on them as well. The Colts already manhandled two of the better defenses in the league in Seattle and San Francisco, averaging over 30 points in those two games. The Redskins in Washington are another candidate to ring them up.
Considering the Chiefs are not built to win a shootout, any team that can get 28 or so points against them has a solid shot at winning. So I've identified five potential games in which the Chiefs may be looking at needing 30 or more points to win. Can they do it five times?
I'll be interested to see if they can do it once.
Your thoughts?
