Just how good ARE the Chiefs?

[iknowftbll]

It's really tought to say at this point, both they and the Donks have had cake walk schedules but appear to be the best teams in the AFC. They play each other twice in the next four weeks, this will be the tell all for both teams.

Both teams have played their schedule, same as every team. Both are very good teams. They both face tougher slates in the second half of the season. As a Broncos fan I am confident the emmergence of the defense is going to be the boost that powers them through. The Chiefs will get no such boost. And while I am not trying to diminish what the Chiefs defense has done, they do face much better offenses in the second half of the season.

I see the Chiefs finishing 4-4 down the stretch. No worse than 3-5, though I think that's unlikely. A 12-4 finish is great for any team, especially one that was 2-14 a year ago.

 

[TDs3nOut]

appear to be the best teams in the AFC.

^ Colts

 

[iknowftbll]

No. His improvement came from having Jim Harbaugh and a consistency that he never had.

W-L records get attached to a QB, but everyone knows a win or a loss is a result of a complete team effort. If you think Smith's record improvement has nothing to do with the 49ers fielding better defenses in his last few years with the team then you are fooling yourself. Smith did improve his own level of play to be sure. But nothing in a football game happens in a vaccum. Screening that happens on the field affects other aspects of the game. Offenses and defenses and special teams affect each other. Smith's W-L record definitely benefitted from the 49ers defense improving.

 

[rmilia1]

Do you think Smith's record improving over the last few seasons has nothing to do with the improvements the 49ers made on defense? Do you think the Chiefs would be 8-0 without that defense?

Of course it does but no QB wins consistently without a good D and to attribute Smiths success solely to the D is BS and short changes his talents. If D alone were enough to win 85% of your games over 2 years then there would be alot of teams doing it. Im not saying the guy is a HOFer but as of right now hes a top 10 QB. Rarely makes mistakes, controls the game, makes plays when he needs to but most importantly he wins. THere are about 5 guys in the league that can win games by themselves, Smith isnt one of them but that doesnt mean he isnt really really good.

 

[iknowftbll]

Of course it does but no QB wins consistently without a good D and to attribute Smiths success solely to the D is BS and short changes his talents. If D alone were enough to win 85% of your games over 2 years then there would be alot of teams doing it. Im not saying the guy is a HOFer but as of right now hes a top 10 QB. Rarely makes mistakes, controls the game, makes plays when he needs to but most importantly he wins. THere are about 5 guys in the league that can win games by themselves, Smith isnt one of them but that doesnt mean he isnt really really good.

Nobody is saying his success is solely a result of his defense. I think it is fair to say they are a significant part of it though. And when teams are able to exploit that defense as I expect will happen in the second half of the season, Smith is not the kind of QB who can consistently match an opponent score for score, especially if that opponent has a halfway solid defense themselves.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Of course it does but no QB wins consistently without a good D and to attribute Smiths success solely to the D is BS and short changes his talents. If D alone were enough to win 85% of your games over 2 years then there would be salot of teams doing it. Im not saying the guy is a HOFer but as of right now hes a top 10 QB. Rarely makes mistakes, controls the game, makes plays when he needs to but most importantly he win. THere are about 5 guys in the league that can win games by themselves, Smith isnt one of them but that doesnt mean he isnt really really good.

True that Smith isn't one of them, and the number of guys in the league who "win games by themselves" is actually zero.

You love Alex Smith. I get it. Let's see how he fairs during a much tougher schedule than he -- along with his teammates -- faced during the first half of the season, beginning with Buffalo this Sunday.

 

[WalkerBoh]

So guys cant get better??? Of course they can. Hell Elway sucked balls his first 3 or 4 years.

Well, this statement just proves you don't know what you're talking about.

IN years 2 and 3, Elway compiled a 23-7 record. He passed for over 3800 yards in his third season.

Alex Smith is in his 8th season. QB's don't just "magically" improve after 8 seasons. Maybe after 1-2 if they're good ones, but not after 8 seasons. (or even 5 seasons in your example). Teams are winning not because of Smith, but because he doesn't kill them. If he were as great as you think, SF wouldn't have even drafted Kaepernick, let alone replaced Smith with him.

Obviously you're not informed enough to discuss this intelligently. I'm done with you.

 

[rmilia1]

Well, this statement just proves you don't know what you're talking about.

IN years 2 and 3, Elway compiled a 23-7 record. He passed for over 3800 yards in his third season.

Alex Smith is in his 8th season. QB's don't just "magically" improve after 8 seasons. Maybe after 1-2 if they're good ones, but not after 8 seasons. (or even 5 seasons in your example). Teams are winning not because of Smith, but because he doesn't kill them. If he were as great as you think, SF wouldn't have even drafted Kaepernick, let alone replaced Smith with him.

Obviously you're not informed enough to discuss this intelligently. I'm done with you.

He didnt magically improve after 8 seasons. Hes been great since his 6th season and he was hurt 2 years prior to that. I dont love Alex Smith, I could care less about him. Just think its ridiculous he gets so little respect when he has been the best QB in the NFL since 2011 at doing what is most important. Winning.

 

[rmilia1]

Well, this statement just proves you don't know what you're talking about.

IN years 2 and 3, Elway compiled a 23-7 record. He passed for over 3800 yards in his third season.
Alex Smith is in his 8th season. QB's don't just "magically" improve after 8 seasons. Maybe after 1-2 if they're good ones, but not after 8 seasons. (or even 5 seasons in your example). Teams are winning not because of Smith, but because he doesn't kill them. If he were as great as you think, SF wouldn't have even drafted Kaepernick, let alone replaced Smith with him.

Obviously you're not informed enough to discuss this intelligently. I'm done with you.

We have already established ( per you guys) that records dont make a QB great. In years 2 and 3 Elway threw 40 TD's and 38 INT's and completed less than 55% of his passes. If he was playing now he would have been replaced at QB. Thats just facts man. Maybe those Bronco teams won because of their D too??? LOL

 

[iknowftbll]

We have already established ( per you guys) that records dont make a QB great. In years 2 and 3 Elway threw 40 TD's and 38 INT's and completed less than 55% of his passes. If he was playing now he would have been replaced at QB. Thats just facts man. Maybe those Bronco teams won because of their D too??? LOL

But now you're doing it too, just the opposite. The truth is both are right. A QB has to be good to lead a team to wins on a consistent basis. But a QB also benefits from a good defense. That W-L record is close to worthless when you consider the complete picture. Sort of like a pitcher in baseball who has a 1-4 record but an era of 2.00 and an opponent average of .240 or so. The record does not paint the whole picture.

 

[rmilia1]

But now you're doing it too, just the opposite. The truth is both are right. A QB has to be good to lead a team to wins on a consistent basis. But a QB also benefits from a good defense. That W-L record is close to worthless when you consider the complete picture. Sort of like a pitcher in baseball who has a 1-4 record but an era of 2.00 and an opponent average of .240 or so. The record does not paint the whole picture.

I know man, Im just making the point that QB's get better. Alex never had any consistency at coach his first 4 years, was hurt for 2 and now has been winning all over the place the last 3. Elway won his first 3 year but threw a shit ton of INT's, completed a super low percentage and turned into ( IMO ) the best QB to ever play the game. Obviously the skll sets arent the same as Elway is untouchable there but Im saying you cant hold onto notions about someone after they prove you wrong consistently. We can hypothesize all we want about whther Smith can outsling a great QB but I saw him do it to Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers the last 2 years ( 1 in a playoff game ) so Im not sure why he wouldnt be able to do it against another elite QB. At the end of it its just insulting to the guy to attribute most of his wins to the D as his teams over the last 3 years are scoring 27 ppg with him at QB. That would rank top 10 in ppg over that span. Great?? Nah but its not like hes winning 13-10 every week.

 

[WalkerBoh]

We have already established ( per you guys) that records dont make a QB great. In years 2 and 3 Elway threw 40 TD's and 38 INT's and completed less than 55% of his passes. If he was playing now he would have been replaced at QB. Thats just facts man. Maybe those Bronco teams won because of their D too??? LOL

Oh, so NOW the record doesn't count when it doesn't help your argument. (Yet it's the ONLY thing you're using to argue Smith is currently a great QB). I see now. You're just a Troll. On the ignore list you go.

And as yet another example of your ignorance. If Elway were playing now, he'd have a much higher percentage (and fewer INT's) than back in the mid 80's. But I guess the pass defense rule differences are much too complicated a subject for your understanding.

 

[iknowftbll]

But when you mention ppg you have to remember that defense and special teams score too. Looking at individual production, Smith is not horrible. 2011 was his best season, and in this era of football that favors the offense he amassed just 3,144 yards. That 49ers team had a great defense and a solid run game with Gore putting in 1200+ rushing yards and Kendall Hunter adding another 473. This year's Chiefs are built similarly to that team. That's not a bad thing because that team finished 13-3. And out of their 13 wins, 7 were by a one-score margin. The difference maker was the defense, which allowed a measly 14 ppg.

Last week we saw the Browns effectively shut down the Chiefs offense in the second half of the game. The Browns, on their third QB of the season, also piled up 283 passing yards. One of the most offensively challenged teams in the league went into KC and made a run at the Chiefs. Fortunately for the Chiefs, the Browns were not able to seal the deal. But do you think the Broncos and Charger (each x2) will struggle to condenser drives with scores the way the Browns did?

Smith is good. But I maintain he will not be able to keep up with some of the better offenses still ahead on the Chiefs schedule.

 

[rmilia1]

Oh, so NOW the record doesn't count when it doesn't help your argument. (Yet it's the ONLY thing you're using to argue Smith is currently a great QB). I see now. You're just a Troll. On the ignore list you go.

And as yet another example of your ignorance. If Elway were playing now, he'd have a much higher percentage (and fewer INT's) than back in the mid 80's. But I guess the pass defense rule differences are much too complicated a subject for your understanding.

No man, Im being the anti troll. Im pointing out that you completely wave off Smiths record yet its the FIRST thing that you mention when saying how good Elway was years 2 and 3 when the facts are he was not great statistically. In fact he sucked statistically. If a 23-7 record in years 2 and 3 with shitty stats is good for Elway then 27-5-1 with WAYYYY better stats has to be good for Smith. You dont get it both ways. I posted that comment on Elway specifically because I knew his record was good but his stats werent and like a sucker you fell for it. Now explain to me how a guy with a better record and better efficiency is winning ony because of his D but Elway won because he was "great" thos years.....

 

[rmilia1]

But when you mention ppg you have to remember that defense and special teams score too. Looking at individual production, Smith is not horrible. 2011 was his best season, and in this era of football that favors the offense he amassed just 3,144 yards. That 49ers team had a great defense and a solid run game with Gore putting in 1200+ rushing yards and Kendall Hunter adding another 473. This year's Chiefs are built similarly to that team. That's not a bad thing because that team finished 13-3. And out of their 13 wins, 7 were by a one-score margin. The difference maker was the defense, which allowed a measly 14 ppg.

Last week we saw the Browns effectively shut down the Chiefs offense in the second half of the game. The Browns, on their third QB of the season, also piled up 283 passing yards. One of the most offensively challenged teams in the league went into KC and made a run at the Chiefs. Fortunately for the Chiefs, the Browns were not able to seal the deal. But do you think the Broncos and Charger (each x2) will struggle to condenser drives with scores the way the Browns did?

Smith is good. But I maintain he will not be able to keep up with some of the better offenses still ahead on the Chiefs schedule.

Dude 50% of games in the NFL are decided by a score or less ( actually its 52% over the last 10 years) so saying a guy is good at winning close games doesnt hurt my thoughts on Smith at all. Anyway I think we are going to have to agree to disagree. The Chiefs are good, Broncos are better but if you think its inconceivable for KC to beat Dnever ( even in Denver) then I dont know what to tell you except to maybe rewatch the playoff game from last years because this Chiefs team is very similar to last years Ravens except better on D.

 

[Broncosr0k]

If a 23-7 record in years 2 and 3 with shitty stats is good for Elway then 27-5-1 with WAYYYY better stats has to be good for Smith. You dont get it both ways. I posted that comment on Elway specifically because I knew his record was good but his stats werent and like a sucker you fell for it. Now explain to me how a guy with a better record and better efficiency is winning ony because of his D but Elway won because he was "great" thos years.....

I cannot argue Elway's early career. I was not even a thought to my parents at that point but I will say this. giving a W-L record does nothing for saying how good a player is. That only gives an idea at how good the team is. Likewise, individual stats will never paint an entire picture. They can give one an idea. I have watched several chiefs games this year and I am not impressed. Smith is a game manager and will win you games as long as scores are low. The moment you ask him to win a shootout, you are screwed.

The Chiefs are good, Broncos are better but if you think its inconceivable for KC to beat Denver ( even in Denver) then I dont know what to tell you except to maybe rewatch the playoff game from last years because this Chiefs team is very similar to last years Ravens except better on D.

Comparing the Chiefs to the playoff ravens is ridiculous. The chiefs defense is better but the passing game is much worse. A key to the ravens win is Flacco's long ball. He somehow throws those very well. Smith has not taken too many shots down the field. I don't know if it is a can't or won't situation but no one fears him going deep on their defense.

As for the chiefs beating the broncos, I have admitted it is possible. I predict them to do that at arrowhead but I think they will do that by a defense that gets after Manning, plays rough with the receivers, and forces turnovers. I don't see the chiefs (in KC or Denver) scoring 40+ points, even on Denver's D.

I still think the chiefs are good and may even make some noise in the playoffs but I doubt they make it to the SB. And, who knows, maybe Reid is wanting a game manager this year and will institute more passing next year after Smith has got the offense down pat.

I would be willing to revisit this conversation throughout the season as the chiefs play some better teams and even next year but right now I think you are right, in that, we must agree to disagree. It is good banter.

 

[WalkerBoh]

But when you mention ppg you have to remember that defense and special teams score too. Looking at individual production, Smith is not horrible. 2011 was his best season, and in this era of football that favors the offense he amassed just 3,144 yards. That 49ers team had a great defense and a solid run game with Gore putting in 1200+ rushing yards and Kendall Hunter adding another 473. This year's Chiefs are built similarly to that team. That's not a bad thing because that team finished 13-3. And out of their 13 wins, 7 were by a one-score margin. The difference maker was the defense, which allowed a measly 14 ppg.

Last week we saw the Browns effectively shut down the Chiefs offense in the second half of the game. The Browns, on their third QB of the season, also piled up 283 passing yards. One of the most offensively challenged teams in the league went into KC and made a run at the Chiefs. Fortunately for the Chiefs, the Browns were not able to seal the deal. But do you think the Broncos and Charger (each x2) will struggle to condenser drives with scores the way the Browns did?

Smith is good. But I maintain he will not be able to keep up with some of the better offenses still ahead on the Chiefs schedule.

Looking at his stats, "Good" could be a reach. I'd say not bad, but that's about it. 59% completion rate when you're not throwing downfield much isn't great, and only 9 TD to 4 INT's. The truely "good" QB's have better ratios than that. He's 18th in QB rating, 23rd in the league in yards/game, 24th in completion percentage, tied for 17th in TD's thrown, and 18th in total QBR (which even takes his contribution towards wins into account). Reality is, there's a long list of QB's you could put in place of Smith in KC right now, and they'd still be 8-0. There are just some people who are incapable of seeing this. And I agree, unless something changes, or the defense is even better than it looks so far, Smith's going to have difficulty keeping up with the better QB's he'll face. If he were down 2 TD's to the Redskins, I'd have my doubts Smith could lead KC to victory and that's to a lousy defense. Imagine if he's down 2 scores to the Patriots, Colts, Chargers, or Broncos?

 

[Morpheus]

Smith is hugely benefiting from a good defense and a soft schedule.

Sure, they can only play the teams they have on their schedule, but they have won 2 games 17-16, and 2 by 10 points or less. The 2 games they won by a point were at home, and we all know how huge a factor the noise is at Arrowhead.

They are fortunate and they have a good defense who has played well against some softer teams.

Let's face it, as well as a better QB (not much better, but he is not turning over the ball that much) and a healthy defense and upgrade at HC, the Chiefs are also benefiting from a last place schedule.

Their offense is only averaging 24 PPG. I have serious doubts they can keep up in scoring with the Broncos, Colts or Chargers, all teams they have 5 games left against, and Their defense has not faced a top ranked offense yet beside Dallas who fumbled twice in that game and lost by one point. Also, a key injury or two could derail the defense for the Chiefs. They are lucky so far that no starters have been serioulsy injured.

My guess is the Chiefs finish between 10-6 and 12-4. Home field advantage may help them get a win over the Chargers or Colts, but I don't think they can keep up with the Broncos unless we turn the ball over multiple times and shoot ourselves in the foot.

You guys may laugh at me for this, but the Raiders are slowly coming together and I could see them beating the Chiefs in Oakland the last game of the season.

 

[WalkerBoh]

Smith is hugely benefiting from a good defense and a soft schedule.

Sure, they can only play the teams they have on their schedule, but they have won 2 games 17-16, and 2 by 10 points or less. The 2 games they won by a point were at home, and we all know how huge a factor the noise is at Arrowhead.

They are fortunate and they have a good defense who has played well against some softer teams.

Let's face it, as well as a better QB (not much better, but he is not turning over the ball that much) and a healthy defense and upgrade at HC, the Chiefs are also benefiting from a last place schedule.

Their offense is only averaging 24 PPG. I have serious doubts they can keep up in scoring with the Broncos, Colts or Chargers, all teams they have 5 games left against, and Their defense has not faced a top ranked offense yet beside Dallas who fumbled twice in that game and lost by one point. Also, a key injury or two could derail the defense for the Chiefs. They are lucky so far that no starters have been serioulsy injured.

My guess is the Chiefs finish between 10-6 and 12-4. Home field advantage may help them get a win over the Chargers or Colts, but I don't think they can keep up with the Broncos unless we turn the ball over multiple times and shoot ourselves in the foot.

You guys may laugh at me for this, but the Raiders are slowly coming together and I could see them beating the Chiefs in Oakland the last game of the season.

I'd say their offense is actually averaging much less, since that 24 PPG includes 3 INT-TD, 1 FR-TD, and 1 punt return TD.

 

[Morpheus]

I'd say their offense is actually averaging much less, since that 24 PPG includes 3 INT-TD, 1 FR-TD, and 1 punt return TD.

True. I just pulled the stat from total scoring offense. If you subtract ST and Defensive TD's they are only averaging 19.6 PPG.

That sucks, lol.

Their highest scoring game was against the Giants with 31 and the offense only put up 24. McCluster returned a kick off for a TD.