Geno Staying put

[blstoker]

Great. So which QBs were signed as starters that are making less than 20 million AAV.

Which QBs were signed as a back up for more than 20 million AAV?

 

[flyerhawk]

We also keep hearing, "we trust Pete and John with whatever they do"... But when it comes to the possibility of resigning Geno, then they don't trust them... You either trust them or you don't...

Trust = One in which confidence is placed

It's fine if you don't trust them to do one thing but do trust them to do something else.

I trust them to do the right thing with regards to drafting a QB. I DON'T trust them to necessarily make smart draft picks in general. If they can do well again this year then last year isn't the aberration it appears in hindsight.

I just don't see the point of quibbling over 20 million AAV and 28 or 30 million AAV. The structure of the deal is going to matter more than the AAV anyway.

 

[flyerhawk]

Which QBs were signed as a back up for more than 20 million AAV?

None to my knowledge. Not sure why that is relevant since Geno isn't being signed to be a backup.

 

[Screamin12th]

Don't first round picks come with a 5th year option?

 

[Anointed One]

Don't first round picks come with a 5th year option?

Yeppers... Which is why we will need to make that decision on Jordyn Brooks...

 

[flyerhawk]

Don't first round picks come with a 5th year option?

Yes.

 

[blstoker]

I just don't see the point of quibbling over 20 million AAV and 28 or 30 million AAV. The structure of the deal is going to matter more than the AAV anyway.

While this is true to an extent, I'd rather not have Geno on the books but not on the roster - at least for the 10s of millions being asked. Hell, I'd rather him make 30 AAV with front loaded cap than to have Geno still owed $20-30 million in cap and no longer a Seahawk,

None to my knowledge. Not sure why that is relevant since Geno isn't being signed to be a backup.

Exactly.

Geno is a unique situation, as everyone keeps saying. He has limited long term potential but is coming off a strong top 10 (possibly top 5) performance. There aren't many track records to support what's happening with Geno. You advocate for a top 14 contract (currently), I'm advocating for a top 15 contract. I'd be ok with a 3 year 60 million contract with 30 million signing bonus and his first 2 years salaries guaranteed. Cap hits of 11, 19 & 30 including 40 total guaranteed. Will he be signed to something like this - probably not - and I really don't expect him to.

Now, since he's coming off a top 10 season, why wouldn't you be advocating for Geno to get $40 million AAV? That would make him the 10th highest paid QB in the league. Seattle has been known to reward their players with VERY competitive contracts for their own players.

 

[flyerhawk]

While this is true to an extent, I'd rather not have Geno on the books but not on the roster - at least for the 10s of millions being asked. Hell, I'd rather him make 30 AAV with front loaded cap than to have Geno still owed $20-30 million in cap and no longer a Seahawk,

That isn't really likely. In the scenario I offered earlier, the Seahawks could either restructured his contract in year 3 or cut him for a 14 million cap hit. 14 million dollars just isn't that big a deal in terms of dead money. And if the plan is to go rookie QB, then you can simply keep Geno on as vet backup while the rookie develops.

Exactly.

Geno is a unique situation, as everyone keeps saying. He has limited long term potential but is coming off a strong top 10 (possibly top 5) performance. There aren't many track records to support what's happening with Geno. You advocate for a top 14 contract (currently), I'm advocating for a top 15 contract. I'd be ok with a 3 year 60 million contract with 30 million signing bonus and his first 2 years salaries guaranteed. Cap hits of 11, 19 & 30 including 40 total guaranteed. Will he be signed to something like this - probably not - and I really don't expect him to.

Now, since he's coming off a top 10 season, why wouldn't you be advocating for Geno to get $40 million AAV? That would make him the 10th highest paid QB in the league. Seattle has been known to reward their players with VERY competitive contracts for their own players.

Well certainly there aren't a lot of good examples similar to Geno. I would like for the team to sign him for 3 years 60 million. I just don't see that happening.

I don't advocate paying him $40 million mainly because I don't believe that any team would pay him 40 million AAV. We are all aware that Geno still has question marks and one good season doesn't wipe away a career of being a sub-par player.

To be very clear, it's not like I'm a huge Geno fan. I have my concerns about him as well. I do think he will be a competent QB for us again next year but he is unlikely to ever elevate himself above that.

But I see a defense that has been mediocre to poor for the past 4-5 seasons. So I would like to spend our draft resources on rebuilding that ideally. And I don't see any value in letting Geno go and replacing him with Marcus Mariota or Jacoby Brisset. That just doesn't make any sense to me. We are creating more problems that we are solving. Arguing that we could sign some backup QB and use that money to sign Deron Payne makes little sense to me. Payne would be a difference maker certainly. But our offense would be demonstrably worse.

FTR, I suspect the Giants are dealing with the same issues as the Hawks are. They are going to be forced to sign Danny Dimes for a lot more than they probably want to.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Opinions change... Should I dig up stuff on you, too? It was a small sample size in 2021 but his completion %, TD/INT ratio was night and day... Why is that? Why is his % ratio night and day in 21 & 22 vs the Jets first two years? Is it because he's gotten better? Or is it because he's lucky? Because you're basing your opinion basically off his 1st 2 years in the league because he hasn't played much since then before coming to Seattle...

You're coming off very bitter and defensive when discussing Geno now days...

I'm just adamant that Geno is not the answer at QB. He's a journeyman QB who had a partially successful season and no one was impressed with him in 2021. I don't want either a big cap hit or dead money that runs into double digit millions down the road when he's not even on the roster.
I felt when RW was traded the plan was to rebuild and take advantage of a rookie QB contract that would allow for cap space to be used where it is needed.

 

[JMR]

That isn't really likely. In the scenario I offered earlier, the Seahawks could either restructured his contract in year 3 or cut him for a 14 million cap hit. 14 million dollars just isn't that big a deal in terms of dead money. And if the plan is to go rookie QB, then you can simply keep Geno on as vet backup while the rookie develops.

Here comes the hand-wringing over dead cap money, like it's a new thing and all teams don't do it. At the same time we would take a dead money cap hit for Geno (like 3 years down the road), we would in all likelihood be starting a QB that was costing us next to nothing. Plus, the cap for 2026 is probably going to be around $270M...but we would be phucked if $14M of that was on a player no longer on the roster?? This is what teams do when they turn over roster spots from older players to younger players. It's bizarre that some folks here are now suddenly all sensitive about it. The truth is they just don't want to sign Geno, and that's ok...I have respect for that position a lot more than some of the subjective fluff being thrown around and other lines of bull about how he didn't really play as well as we think, can't afford to pay him "big money", don't really have as much cap space as it appears, yada yada. I think I am done beating my head against the wall on the Geno Smith topic. Looking forward to seeing how it works out.

I'll be ecstatic if we can keep him for $20M AAV, and I guess I'll leave it at that.

Pitchers and catchers tomorrow!

 

[flyerhawk]

Here comes the hand-wringing over dead cap money, like it's a new thing and all teams don't do it. At the same time we would take a dead money cap hit for Geno (like 3 years down the road), we would in all likelihood be starting a QB that was costing us next to nothing. Plus, the cap for 2026 is probably going to be around $270M...but we would be phucked if $14M of that was on a player no longer on the roster?? This is what teams do when they turn over roster spots from older players to younger players. It's bizarre that some folks here are now suddenly all sensitive about it. The truth is they just don't want to sign Geno, and that's ok...I have respect for that position a lot more than some of the subjective fluff being thrown around and other lines of bull about how he didn't really play as well as we think, can't afford to pay him "big money", don't really have as much cap space as it appears, yada yada. I think I am done beating my head against the wall on the Geno Smith topic. Looking forward to seeing how it works out.

I'll be ecstatic if we can keep him for $20M AAV, and I guess I'll leave it at that.

Pitchers and catchers tomorrow!

If I had my druthers I would prefer that we find a better QB. Which is why I would like to see us use a 2nd or 3rd round pick to grab a QB like Hooker. QB position would still be fairly decent cap wise and we would have a QB for now and a QB for the future and if Hooker doesn't pan out we aren't in a terrible position.

 

[JMR]

If I had my druthers I would prefer that we find a better QB. Which is why I would like to see us use a 2nd or 3rd round pick to grab a QB like Hooker. QB position would still be fairly decent cap wise and we would have a QB for now and a QB for the future and if Hooker doesn't pan out we aren't in a terrible position.

I am not hell bent on signing Geno if the numbers can't make sense. I am not excited about the top of this year's QB class, but I think the middle is pretty strong.

 

[DHoey]

Give me Drew Lock for 5 mil and 25 on defense vs 30 mil on Geno

 

[flyerhawk]

Give me Drew Lock for 5 mil and 25 on defense vs 30 mil on Geno

Well, at least you're honest about it.

 

[blstoker]

That isn't really likely. In the scenario I offered earlier, the Seahawks could either restructured his contract in year 3 or cut him for a 14 million cap hit. 14 million dollars just isn't that big a deal in terms of dead money. And if the plan is to go rookie QB, then you can simply keep Geno on as vet backup while the rookie develops.



Well certainly there aren't a lot of good examples similar to Geno. I would like for the team to sign him for 3 years 60 million. I just don't see that happening.

I don't advocate paying him $40 million mainly because I don't believe that any team would pay him 40 million AAV. We are all aware that Geno still has question marks and one good season doesn't wipe away a career of being a sub-par player.

To be very clear, it's not like I'm a huge Geno fan. I have my concerns about him as well. I do think he will be a competent QB for us again next year but he is unlikely to ever elevate himself above that.

But I see a defense that has been mediocre to poor for the past 4-5 seasons. So I would like to spend our draft resources on rebuilding that ideally. And I don't see any value in letting Geno go and replacing him with Marcus Mariota or Jacoby Brisset. That just doesn't make any sense to me. We are creating more problems that we are solving. Arguing that we could sign some backup QB and use that money to sign Deron Payne makes little sense to me. Payne would be a difference maker certainly. But our offense would be demonstrably worse.

FTR, I suspect the Giants are dealing with the same issues as the Hawks are. They are going to be forced to sign Danny Dimes for a lot more than they probably want to.

See, there's the real core of the issue. I see Geno Smith as a player who will not be what he was in 2022 and will most likely regress, you see him as a competent starter who can hold the fort for a few more years. Our issues and disagreement is what Geno will be moving forward - not money. My dollar figure is based on what I perceive him to be with a little more added on for what he did this past season, your's is the same. I'm ok if Geno walks because as much as you think another QB is a gamble - I see Geno as the same gamble. I'm not willing to pay top dollar (i.e. $30m AAV) for Geno because I see that as harmful for the Seahawks long term. Maybe my thoughts on Geno are different if he's 25 and there's a chance that the investment could be in the Hawks long term plans, but everyone here appears to agree that 1 or 2 years is about all they're willing to commit to him.

 

[flyerhawk]

See, there's the real core of the issue. I see Geno Smith as a player who will not be what he was in 2022 and will most likely regress, you see him as a competent starter who can hold the fort for a few more years. Our issues and disagreement is what Geno will be moving forward - not money. My dollar figure is based on what I perceive him to be with a little more added on for what he did this past season, your's is the same. I'm ok if Geno walks because as much as you think another QB is a gamble - I see Geno as the same gamble. I'm not willing to pay top dollar (i.e. $30m AAV) for Geno because I see that as harmful for the Seahawks long term. Maybe my thoughts on Geno are different if he's 25 and there's a chance that the investment could be in the Hawks long term plans, but everyone here appears to agree that 1 or 2 years is about all they're willing to commit to him.

A few things.

$30M AAV is not top dollar.
Geno Smith played largely the same last year as he did in his fill in role in 2021. He was the most accurate passer in the NFL last year. But also from CPOE..



I don't see why Geno would somehow lose his accuracy next year.

Obviously Geno has his downside. His off schedule decision making is questionable to say the least.

I still don't know who you think the other option is. Is it Drew Lock, the guy who couldn't beat out Geno last year despite the Seahawks trading for him? The other side of the "not signing Geno" is to find someone to replace him. This is the part where we most disagree. The biggest reason I think we should re-sign Geno is because I don't see any better alternative.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I think one thing we've all kind of forgotten about (I mean if someone mentioned it please correct me):

I don't think the market is going to be that high for Geno. I don't think ANYONE is going to give him $30M. He's approaching mid 30s, had one good year with some of the best WR talent in the league, a great HB, and good offensive coordinator.... I think those of you saying he's going to get $30M let alone $40M are insane.

From who?

Houston is likely drafting a QB
Atlanta is likely drafting a QB
Carolina is likely drafting a QB
Indy is likely drafting a QB
Raiders may be drafting a QB which means Carr is open.

Who the hell else needs a QB at that point or can actually afford one? Richardson, Levis, Stroud, and Young are all probably going top 15 (let alone top 5)... ALL of those teams have FAR worse offenses than Seattle (coaching and receivers anyway) - so I don't know if the demand is gonna be there for Smith.

If he can settle for a 2 year $45M contract, I'd be willing to bend... but that's ONLY if Stroud/Anderson/Carter are not available at 5... I think honestly Seattle is going to hold off a decision on Geno until the draft...

IMO the most important resigning this offseason is Waldron. We cannot let that walk...

 

[Screamin12th]

I don't see why Geno would somehow lose his accuracy next year.

Uhm.... he is normally a sub 60% in accuracy ( 5 years out of 9 he was sub 60% ) so just because he was at 69% this year doesn't mean he is a 69% passer. He has had 5 years of Sub 60%, and 2 years of over 65%. Geno has arguably one of the best WR duo's in the NFL to throw to and those two can make sub par QB's look above par.

His career average completion percentage is 62.8%

want to add this also, Geno has 60 turnovers in his career and 64 touchdowns. Take away the 30-14 ( 11 INT 3 fumbles ) season and those numbers don't look good at all. 34 TD and 46 Turnovers. Not like they looked good to begin with anyway. You have to completely ignore all the bad to think he is a good QB, to many find this to easy to do.

 

[flyerhawk]

If he can settle for a 2 year $45M contract, I'd be willing to bend... but that's ONLY if Stroud/Anderson/Carter are not available at 5... I think honestly Seattle is going to hold off a decision on Geno until the draft...

That would be a huge risk.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

That would be a huge risk.

HUGE risk or risk? Sure, it's always a risk... but given all the needs I outlined and the available QBs (and likely TWO of those 4 WILL be available at #5 pending trade ups), this is the equivalent risk of buying a blue chip stock vs. a futures contract. One of the top 4 QBs WILL be there at #5... and if Seattle doesn't want them and takes Carter/Anderson (or hopefully Stroud, I'm high on him, have been for a while), the market for Geno is going to dry up dramatically.

And that's the point... you really think someone is going to sign him for $30M per year let alone $40M or some $100M+ massively guaranteed contract? I don't think the market is there at all for it.

Right now I think Seattle is in a bidding war with themselves. There's no reason to give Geno that kind of money right now. He's a yes man, I get it... Russell was a yes man too at some point. There's a QB available at #5 with a 5 year option, far cheaper, and younger... and IMO you plug him into Waldron's system (priority #1 is resigning that) with Walker, Metcalf, Lockett, the 3 TE set, two solid rookie tackles, and whatever the fuck we draft... there's success likely there.

So you wait and see. This is one of those times where there's no reason to hastily move on this. And if someone wants to give Geno $40M? Well hooray, we just got another 2nd round pick.