For those who think Trout over miggy

[jalopy]

1) 2%-Games played- I'm not certain this can't be taken into account with plate appearances in the formula below. I wold eliminate it completely to avoid duplicity.

2) 3% playoffs- In a mathematical formula, this really doesn't belong. Does a walk-off home run hold more statistical importance than a home run in the 2nd inning? Statistics and mathematics would say no. Perhaps you could drive a formula multiplier to derive how to statistically define clutch.

3) 5% position played(catchers do get a little extra here).- Again, this would be better addressed when assessing defensive value. The notion that catchers add more value because of their control of the pitching side of things is interesting (and probably correct). I'm just not sure how to quantify it.

4) 2% rank at position played- Redundant.

5) 44%- formula using (RBI+Runs-HR)/PA and (RBI+Runs-HR)/total team runs scored)- This has many troublesome issues. I like where you are going with the formula but I really don't understand where team runs is relevant.

5) 44% using a version of RC27 that includes baserunning and other advanced statistics... also using a different version of total bases(not 1 point for single, 2 point for double and so on). The formula I have for RC27 is "(Runs Created)/(At bats-hits+caught stealing+sacrifice hits+sacrifice flies+GIDP)*27". Can you detail a little more about how you have altered that?

Overall, I think the model is flawed for the simple reason that it lacks assumptions. For instance, can you tell me how much you are attempting to weight offense v defense? What percentage does baserunning figure when determining overall value. I'm not trying to dictate the direction of your model, only assess if it achieves what you set out to. It is obvious you put a high value on the offensive side of the ball. Can you justify why more value is added offensively vs defensively?

I don't really have much to add regarding pressure situations. I know there have been attempts to quantify it using weighted averages based on situational things but I have never seen on I liked. I do believe there is validity to pressure situations within a game but I am not as certain that applies to the general pressure of being in a pennant race.

I will read through the follow-up comments and may have more to add. I think it was a thoughtful attempt at measuring how you feel and I thank you for sharing it.

 

[jalopy]

I hope the treatment is going well for you.

Thank you.

 

[jalopy]

you see.
they cant factor in pressure.
WAR is flawed. they know it.
iam sure a new stat will be found. WAR will be laughed at in a few year.

pressure is a major part of this game. it has to be accounted for

Of course WAR is flawed. The very nature of judging individual value in a team sport in contradictory.

Q: Is a walk-off home run more valuable than a 2nd inning home run?

A: Mathematics would answer unequivocally no. Logic might lead us to another answer but without the math, is it valid?

 

[da55bums]

I love baseball and I love stats but next you might as well statistically analyse the actual bats used to see if the grain of the wood is different and how it affects each hitters swing as well as the weight of the mud placed on each ball. (if you actually have formulas and information for these also, I might say your insane or rainman, rainmen, whatever)

 

[da55bums]

Of course WAR is flawed. The very nature of judging individual value in a team sport in contradictory.

Q: Is a walk-off home run more valuable than a 2nd inning home run?

A: Mathematics would answer unequivocally no. Logic might lead us to another answer but without the math, is it valid?

understand Dougie, his posts are "for entertainment only", he just left it off his signature...

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I actually think McCutchen is no better than a bit above average defensively. The gap between him and Trout is essentially a wash. Although, McCutchen was much better this year than he has been in the past

Maybe I am looking at the wrong Sabermetric stats for defense, but according to fangraphs, how is this essentially a wash?

Arm:
McCutch 1.7
Trout -1.4

RangR
McCutch 6.1
Trout 0.6

UZR
McCutch 6.9
Trout 0.1

UZR/150
McCutch 9.3
Trout -0.3

So how is it defense is a wash when advanced stats so otherwise?

 

[StanMarsh51]

Now why do you feel Trout was better in every facet? Defensively, according to Sabermetrics, not only was McCutchen better, he was much better than Trout. The baserunning argument is basically a wash and offensively, while Trout has numbers slightly better in each category, he also had 50 more ABs than McCutchen and put up his numbers without the pressure of a pennant race.

I don't buy into that...

Trout had a 77 point lead in OPS and 21 percentage point lead in OPS+, along with an offensive WAR lead of 10.0 to 7.5....those are not 'slight' leads by any means. To put a 77 point lead in OPS into perspective, Joey Votto had a 79 point lead in OPS over Marlon Byrd...and I don't think anyone will be saying Votto was only slightly better hitting wise than Byrd (not taking positions into account for the sake of argument).

Not to mention when it came to stealing bases, Trout stole 33 at an 82.5% rate, while McCutchen stole 27 at a 73% rate. In fact, in order for McCutchen to have an 82.5% stolen base rate with the 10 steals he already had, he'd have to steal 20 more bases without being caught..so unless there's other stats that give McCutchen the edge in baserunning (as I'm aware there's more to baserunning than stealing), I don't see it being a wash.

 

[Darkstone42]

Maybe I am looking at the wrong Sabermetric stats for defense, but according to fangraphs, how is this essentially a wash?

Arm:
McCutch 1.7
Trout -1.4

RangR
McCutch 6.1
Trout 0.6

UZR
McCutch 6.9
Trout 0.1

UZR/150
McCutch 9.3
Trout -0.3

So how is it defense is a wash when advanced stats so otherwise?

I take defensive metrics with a grain of salt unless you look at long-term trends. Cutch's arm, for example, is definitely below average, but the arm metric says it's above average.

By metrics, this was the only season McCutchen has been above average defensively. Though this was actually his best season defensively, I'm not willing to say that he's decidedly better than Trout defensively.

 

[Wazmankg]

Of course WAR is flawed. The very nature of judging individual value in a team sport in contradictory.

Q: Is a walk-off home run more valuable than a 2nd inning home run?

A: Mathematics would answer unequivocally no. Logic might lead us to another answer but without the math, is it valid?

Yes.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Overall, I think the model is flawed for the simple reason that it lacks assumptions. For instance, can you tell me how much you are attempting to weight offense v defense? What percentage does baserunning figure when determining overall value. I'm not trying to dictate the direction of your model, only assess if it achieves what you set out to. It is obvious you put a high value on the offensive side of the ball. Can you justify why more value is added offensively vs defensively?

I don't really have much to add regarding pressure situations. I know there have been attempts to quantify it using weighted averages based on situational things but I have never seen on I liked. I do believe there is validity to pressure situations within a game but I am not as certain that applies to the general pressure of being in a pennant race.

I will read through the follow-up comments and may have more to add. I think it was a thoughtful attempt at measuring how you feel and I thank you for sharing it.

Total team runs is included in the R+RBI-HR formula, for the same reason why many of us love the ballpark adjusted stats... But instead of adjusting it towards the ballpark i am adjusting it towards the team... for example isnt it a good statistic that Miggy was responsible for 24.6% of the Tigers runs... Mike trout was nearly equal to that at 24.4%... I think that is a great statistic...

I include games played as a statistic because it definitely is impressive for players to play more games, again i see that to be a great statistic(catchers are meant to play less games- thats why i gave them extra at the positional value...

Not sure why you claim that the 2% defensive rank is redundant... Playing a position and playing it well is 2 different statistics...

Like i said i picked those 2 offensive statistics because i think they go well together... One is the actual production and the other is the theoretical production... making the equal rate just makes sense to me...

As for why Offense is worth 88% (Probably around 10% of that is Baserunning-not sure exactly since it is built in to the formula), lets face it offense is the most important facet in baseball... We can say defense is just as important, but the statistics out there for defense are just not as good, and just not as reliable, and when was the last time someone won solely because of defense...

As for the arbitrary percentages, again i believe that simple is sometimes best, and i would rather go simple inside the complicated... I thought the 2 offensive stats should have equal value and be the lion share of the analysis...

Again i know it is not perfect, but at least i create my own statistics(given that there will be lots of things that look arbitrary but it is all my preference) Dont believe there is an exact formula to find the importance between one thing towards another, so why not in my own formulas create how i believe it should be...

Under my calculations, Cabrera and Votto won the MVPs- Cabrera and Trout were significantly the best 2 players... There was almost no difference between Votto and McCutchen(less than a .02 difference), so I have no problem with McCutchen winning...

 

[Wazmankg]

I take defensive metrics with a grain of salt unless you look at long-term trends. Cutch's arm, for example, is definitely below average, but the arm metric says it's above average.

That's because it was above average this year which is the only year that applies when assessing potential MVP candidates.

By metrics, this was the only season McCutchen has been above average defensively. Though this was actually his best season defensively, I'm not willing to say that he's decidedly better than Trout defensively.

See my first reply above ^^.

 

[jalopy]

Total team runs is included in the R+RBI-HR formula, for the same reason why many of us love the ballpark adjusted stats... But instead of adjusting it towards the ballpark i am adjusting it towards the team... for example isnt it a good statistic that Miggy was responsible for 24.6% of the Tigers runs... Mike trout was nearly equal to that at 24.4%... I think that is a great statistic...

But isn't this penalizing Miggy for being on a more productive team? If he were on a team the Astros, his total % would likely be significantly higher.

I include games played as a statistic because it definitely is impressive for players to play more games, again i see that to be a great statistic(catchers are meant to play less games- thats why i gave them extra at the positional value...

Isn't a player that has more plate appearances already rewarded in your offensive formulas with total bases?

As for why Offense is worth 88% (Probably around 10% of that is Baserunning-not sure exactly since it is built in to the formula), lets face it offense is the most important facet in baseball... We can say defense is just as important, but the statistics out there for defense are just not as good, and just not as reliable, and when was the last time someone won solely because of defense...

As a player of the game competitively for 25 years and coaching for 10, I feel I speak with some authority in saying that defense, if anything, is more important than offense. Of course, I spent a good amount of time on a mound so I might be biased. I agree that offensive stats are more easily quantified but that doesn't mean I agree with your premise.

Again i know it is not perfect, but at least i create my own statistics(given that there will be lots of things that look arbitrary but it is all my preference) Dont believe there is an exact formula to find the importance between one thing towards another, so why not in my own formulas create how i believe it should be...

Under my calculations, Cabrera and Votto won the MVPs- Cabrera and Trout were significantly the best 2 players... There was almost no difference between Votto and McCutchen(less than a .02 difference), so I have no problem with McCutchen winning...

.
If you wanted to make up a formula that focuses on a players ability to hit a baseball well and hides deficiencies in all other areas of the game, you have succeeded. If you wanted to create a system that shows overall value, you fell short. It is no wonder Miggy won in your system, it was made for him. In the real world, other things count. Perhaps you have come up with a perfect predictor for the Silver Slugger award.

 

[jalopy]

That's because it was above average this year which is the only year that applies when assessing potential MVP candidates.

Outfield assists are a difficult criteria to judge outfielders. Much like CB's in the NFL, reputation is a large consideration when making the choice to run on (or throw to) a particular defender. An outfielder with a poor arm is likely to get more legitimate chances to throw out an advancing runner. I think a better criteria would be compare how many runners went from first to third, second to home on singles or SAC flies against.

McC is an above average outfielder to me because he gets to a lot of ball but his arm is average and his jump on the ball is average.

 

[Darkstone42]

That's because it was above average this year which is the only year that applies when assessing potential MVP candidates.



See my first reply above ^^.

There are issues with one-year defensive metrics, though, is what I'm saying. While the eyeball test told me McCutchen was better defensively than he had been in the past, I can't rely on the metrics, and I don't know that he was better than Trout.

Even if you concede defense to McCutchen, there is still no question that Trout is the better player and would have beaten McCutchen out for the MVP. Trout was just that much better offensively. If McCutchen played defense like Carlos Gomez, I still think Trout would have been more valuable than him.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

But isn't this penalizing Miggy for being on a more productive team? If he were on a team the Astros, his total % would likely be significantly higher.
Well thats why i pair it with the (Runs+RBI-HR)/PA

Isn't a player that has more plate appearances already rewarded in your offensive formulas with total bases?
No, I use PA a lot in my formulas but it is all for a ratio...

As a player of the game competitively for 25 years and coaching for 10, I feel I speak with some authority in saying that defense, if anything, is more important than offense. Of course, I spent a good amount of time on a mound so I might be biased. I agree that offensive stats are more easily quantified but that doesn't mean I agree with your premise.
Not saying Defense is not important, but assuming that if you are in the MLB you must be at least decent defensively(except for DH), i dont see defense to be as big of a factor... everyone should make the easy plays defensively!!!


.
If you wanted to make up a formula that focuses on a players ability to hit a baseball well and hides deficiencies in all other areas of the game, you have succeeded. If you wanted to create a system that shows overall value, you fell short. It is no wonder Miggy won in your system, it was made for him. In the real world, other things count. Perhaps you have come up with a perfect predictor for the Silver Slugger award

Do you create your own formulas?? or do you just look at statistics that are already there and make your analysis there?? I value offense more than defense, so sue me!!!

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Also i dont think redundancy is a bad thing as long as it is used differently... For example dont you think OPS is redundant it uses Hits 2 different ways...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Also i am not commited to the percentages, as i said i am still tinkering(although i stopped now because it is irrelevant-waiting for next year to edit again if needed)... And willing to add other categories, if i get an explanation i like to how i can improve my formula...

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Not to mention when it came to stealing bases, Trout stole 33 at an 82.5% rate, while McCutchen stole 27 at a 73% rate. In fact, in order for McCutchen to have an 82.5% stolen base rate with the 10 steals he already had, he'd have to steal 20 more bases without being caught..so unless there's other stats that give McCutchen the edge in baserunning (as I'm aware there's more to baserunning than stealing), I don't see it being a wash.

Now did you take into consideration that NL catchers throw out a better % of base runners than AL catchers?

 

[Darkstone42]

Also i dont think redundancy is a bad thing as long as it is used differently... For example dont you think OPS is redundant it uses Hits 2 different ways...

I don't like OPS all that much. It's alright, but there are a couple problems, and you just listed one of them.

The idea behind OPS is to include a "not making outs" component with OBP and a "power" component with slugging, but it assumes they're worth the same amount, and it assumes a doubles is twice as valuable as a single, etc., which simply isn't the case.

The nice thing about it is that it often does track well with the best hitters, and that it's simple and obvious to understand what it's telling you.

I prefer to look at wOBA, though. It's like on on-base percentage which also factors in extra-base hits, eliminating the double-counting, but it also uses season-by-season offensive environments to determine the coefficients with which walks, singles, doubles, triples, and home runs are weighted, ultimately giving a pretty darned telling number.

 

[Darkstone42]

Now did you take into consideration that NL catchers throw out a better % of base runners than AL catchers?

That could just as easily be because there are better base stealers in the AL overall, or worse pitchers for holding on runners in the AL. (The correlations between what the pitcher does and CS% seem to be stronger than those between what the catcher does and CS%.)