For those who think Trout over miggy

[Darkstone42]

I do have a backround in statistics... one thing i have learned is sometimes simple is best... so instead of going historical, i just made the percentages as simple as possible...

My slugging percentage is ((BB-IBB)+1.75 1B +2.5 2B + 3.25 3B +4HR)/(Hits+BB)-still simple but going by .75 instead of 1 and i start with walks...

MY OBP is (H+BB-CS-GIDP)/PA

Where am i double counting??

Never claimed to be correct, but like i said it makes sense to me...

Wow, you really value hits a lot more than walks. And all extra base hits a lot. My guess is you value power over "not making outs" based on those values.

I guess you're actually "de-counting" home runs, but the value you put on them in the RC27 more than makes up for that. Although, it also means you are essentially weighting triples higher than home runs. Maybe even doubles. The value of home runs is really close to doubles in this formula.

And I'm really not convinced your percentages are simple so much as arbitrary. Depending on how much baserunning factors into your RC27, you're putting upwards of 80% of player value in hitting. I understand you value hitting over other facets of the game, but that seems pretty high to me.

I kind of like what you did with OBP, but I don't know if GIDP and CS are worth losing a full even weight over. Doing so discounts the advancement of runner prior to or during those events entirely. Although that factor may be rather small in the long run.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Wow, you really value hits a lot more than walks. And all extra base hits a lot. My guess is you value power over "not making outs" based on those values.

I guess you're actually "de-counting" home runs, but the value you put on them in the RC27 more than makes up for that. Although, it also means you are essentially weighting triples higher than home runs. Maybe even doubles. The value of home runs is really close to doubles in this formula.

And I'm really not convinced your percentages are simple so much as arbitrary. Depending on how much baserunning factors into your RC27, you're putting upwards of 80% of player value in hitting. I understand you value hitting over other facets of the game, but that seems pretty high to me.

I kind of like what you did with OBP, but I don't know if GIDP and CS are worth losing a full even weight over. Doing so discounts the advancement of runner prior to or during those events entirely. Although that factor may be rather small in the long run.

Just because i call it OBP doesnt make it the same as OBP it just resembles it... Some believe that the purpose of OBP is all about the potential amount of runs that a player can get... therefore CS and GIDP is clearly a negative... Look at paul Goldshmidt, he had 25 GIDP and 7 CS that is 32 extra outs... could have been runs... should definitely be a factor against...

 

[dougplayer]

so. winning does not compute with your WAR boys.
not at all. those play off thingys don't mean nuttin!!!!.

forget that Miggy is batting 3rd and expected to drive in all those runs.

its more important for trout to just get on base??

when you see the interviews from spring training.
Miggy will be asked if he can help the Tigers to a ring.....
Trout will be asked if he can keep that WAR high again.

winning is what this game is all about. Miggy will have the most pressure of any player this year to WIN. Trout has no pressure. they don't ask him after the game why he couldn't have drove in just 1 more run

 

[Darkstone42]

Just because i call it OBP doesnt make it the same as OBP it just resembles it... Some believe that the purpose of OBP is all about the potential amount of runs that a player can get... therefore CS and GIDP is clearly a negative... Look at paul Goldshmidt, he had 25 GIDP and 7 CS that is 32 extra outs... could have been runs... should definitely be a factor against...

I agree they're a negative, but a GIDP is sequencing-dependent, and CS is already factored into baserunning.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

What is the sabermetric stats for a player who is playing without the pressure of a pennant race for basically the entire season?

Or is an AB, just an AB, whether you are fighting for a division crown or you are playing meaningless games the last couple months of the season?

I apologize if someone responded to this already, but I was curious if Sabermetrics takes this into account?

 

[Darkstone42]

Spamming is unsolicitated bulk messages


Nice try

Yes, you have posted "bulk" messages to this thread, none of them solicited. The Miggy is still MVP posts add no value. They are simply repeated statements of an obvious fact of which we are all aware. Our discussion here is centering not on who the MVP is, but how one should be decided. Ergo, your statements are unsolicited, and since you repeat them, bulk. Read: spamming.

 

[Darkstone42]

I apologize if someone responded to this already, but I was curious if Sabermetrics takes this into account?

I don't know about pennant races, but there is a Leverage Index to take into account high leverage situations in individual games. Off the top of my head, Miggy was first in MLB, and Trout was twelfth.

When it comes down to it, though, a "pennant race" factor for most players wouldn't become especially relevant until August or so. Any adjustment it created would likely be very small in the long run.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Here is my question to the Trout faithful -- If Trout was in the NL, where does he finish in the MVP voting?

I'm curious to hear from the other Sabermetric fans on this question. To me, if you put Trout in the NL, he still wouldn't win the MVP -- Andrew McCutchen would.

I just want to see how they feel the voting would go.

 

[Darkstone42]

I'm curious to hear from the other Sabermetric fans on this question. To me, if you put Trout in the NL, he still wouldn't win the MVP -- Andrew McCutchen would.

I just want to see how they feel the voting would go.

Trout's a better player than McCutchen. McCutchen is Trout-light. Based on voting, though, it likely would depend on what team he played for, and how they did.

But Trout was better in every facet of the game than McCutchen this season. I can't see any way Trout wouldn't have won MVP in the NL.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

When it comes down to it, though, a "pennant race" factor for most players wouldn't become especially relevant until August or so. Any adjustment it created would likely be very small in the long run.

If it was from August til the end of the season -- that is 1/3 of the season. I think that has a lot to do with the fact you see the winner usually coming from a playoff team.

If someone is playing meaningless games over the last couple months of the season -- they aren't dealing with high pressure situations, as many of the players in a playoff race are in.

 

[Darkstone42]

If it was from August til the end of the season -- that is 1/3 of the season. I think that has a lot to do with the fact you see the winner usually coming from a playoff team.

If someone is playing meaningless games over the last couple months of the season -- they aren't dealing with high pressure situations, as many of the players in a playoff race are in.

The alternate side is that the player could be less motivated, having nothing to play for. The only value I could see would be adding additional weights to leverage index stats during playoff race times, in which case, the effects would likely be minimal.

Either way, I think there's too much personal psychology involved to make this kind of parameter worthwhile.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

But Trout was better in every facet of the game than McCutchen this season. I can't see any way Trout wouldn't have won MVP in the NL.

Now why do you feel Trout was better in every facet? Defensively, according to Sabermetrics, not only was McCutchen better, he was much better than Trout. The baserunning argument is basically a wash and offensively, while Trout has numbers slightly better in each category, he also had 50 more ABs than McCutchen and put up his numbers without the pressure of a pennant race.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

The alternate side is that the player could be less motivated, having nothing to play for.

Motivation would never be a factor, because MLB players are always playing for their next contract.

 

[Darkstone42]

Now why do you feel Trout was better in every facet? Defensively, according to Sabermetrics, not only was McCutchen better, he was much better than Trout. The baserunning argument is basically a wash and offensively, while Trout has numbers slightly better in each category, he also had 50 more ABs than McCutchen and put up his numbers without the pressure of a pennant race.

I actually think McCutchen is no better than a bit above average defensively. The gap between him and Trout is essentially a wash. Although, McCutchen was much better this year than he has been in the past.

Trout got on base more, hit for more power, stole more bases. His wOBA was 30 points higher, his wRC+ was 21 points higher. For you counting stat folks, he also had more runs and RBIs. I don't care about that, but everywhere else, Trout was superior, at the plate and on the bases.

 

[Darkstone42]

Motivation would never be a factor, because MLB players are always playing for their next contract.

Even when they're locked in long term? There are just too many variables.

 

[dougplayer]

you see.
they cant factor in pressure.
WAR is flawed. they know it.
iam sure a new stat will be found. WAR will be laughed at in a few year.

pressure is a major part of this game. it has to be accounted for

 

[Darkstone42]

you see.
they cant factor in pressure.
WAR is flawed. they know it.
iam sure a new stat will be found. WAR will be laughed at in a few year.

pressure is a major part of this game. it has to be accounted for

WAR will never be laughed at. There are more accurate model chemistries than Hartree-Fock, but HF doesn't get laughed at (in fact, it's still used). It's a well-reasoned step in the right direction.

Also, Leverage Index, WPA/LI, and clutch factor in pressure situations for games. Professional athletes are hyper-competitive. I'm not sure the difference between those situations in early season games are all that much less stressful than those in late-season pennant race games. And it's really hard to objectively quantify that effect.

I know you're hopeless in terms of these things, but others may benefit from this response.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Now why do you feel Trout was better in every facet? Defensively, according to Sabermetrics, not only was McCutchen better, he was much better than Trout. The baserunning argument is basically a wash and offensively, while Trout has numbers slightly better in each category, he also had 50 more ABs than McCutchen and put up his numbers without the pressure of a pennant race.

When players have gaps in their PA totals I find an interesting exercise is to figure out what the player with fewer PAs would have to do in those extra PAs to match the stats of the player with the greater number. Obviously sometimes these differences are nothing more than imaginary hypotheticals (for instance McCutchen can't get caught stealing -3 times) but they help to paint an overall picture of value I think.

In those 42 extra PAs (6 extra ABs) McCutchen would have to hit .833/.880/5.333 (there's one of those hypothetical constructs... obviously he can't add 32 total bases in only 6 ABs!) and steal 6 more bases while somehow getting caught the aforementioned "-3" times to match Trout's overall stat line across 716 PAs. So Trout's offensive edge doesn't appear to just be a matter of him having more PAs.

 

[Darkstone42]

When players have gaps in their PA totals I find an interesting exercise is to figure out what the player with fewer PAs would have to do in those extra PAs to match the stats of the player with the greater number. Obviously sometimes these differences are nothing more than imaginary hypotheticals (for instance McCutchen can't get caught stealing -3 times) but they help to paint an overall picture of value I think.

In those 42 extra PAs (6 extra ABs) McCutchen would have to hit .833/.880/5.333 (there's one of those hypothetical constructs... obviously he can't add 32 total bases in only 6 ABs!) and steal 6 more bases while somehow getting caught the aforementioned "-3" times to match Trout's overall stat line across 716 PAs. So Trout's offensive edge doesn't appear to just be a matter of him having more PAs.

I like to do the same thing. It really drives home the power of rate stats with good sample sizes.

 

[da55bums]

Motivation would never be a factor, because MLB players are always playing for their next contract.

Not if they have "THE" big contract...this was true years ago before the 100+ million dollar contracts. Some players hit the payday, then check out...you see it in every sport.

my bad, now see Dark covered it.