For those who think Trout over miggy

[StanMarsh51]

Once again i was busting dougies balls...hes a UM homer....but where do i talk college sports to bums?

For the second time, I saw him quote you on a college football post and just assumed that it was you to having the conversation....if not, then my bad.

So, will you 'man up and admit you misread my post earlier?'

 

[da55bums]

Way to pull the "troll card" losers

Yeah, you have never done that, lol..

 

[Cleaves2000]

You told me i should stick to talking college sports with bums.....which i never have.....for every college post i have on there i prolly have 20-25 baseball posts

 

[Cleaves2000]

For the second time, I saw him quote you on a college football post and just assumed that it was you to having the conversation....if not, then my bad.

Relax.

Maybe if you had relaxed when i didnt hurry and respond back to you...if u hadnt made such a dramatic big deal, then i wouldnt had. I could actually care less what u think...just killin time.....but still not trolling...miggy IS the MVP

 

[da55bums]

will say, Cleaves just posted a picture of college co-eds in actual college bikini's...he wasn't talking sports...but will give him credit for posting a pic with the Hawkeye chik being the hottest in the pic.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Two points:

1. Advanced metrics do deal with what actually happened, removing context and sequencing (which are largely out of the player's control) to produce real numbers which can be more effectively used to project future performance.

OK -- Mike Trout is the Projected Future Performance MVP -- Miguel Cabrera is the actual MVP. There, now everyone is happy.

2. Why do you keep bringing up outfield assists? They're largely so rare that they barely factor into fielding value.

It is quite simple -- people keep talking about his defense, and I'm guessing it is due largely to the fact he had two unbelievable catches last year that ESPN ran on highlights all year. What they fail to realize is -- Out of the 33 players, who played enough games to qualify for the OF, Mike Trout was the ONLY player out of the 33 that had ZERO outfield assists. As a matter of fact -- only one player (Colby Rasmus, who played the bare minimum to qualify 113 games) had 1 assist. Every other OF in the AL had at least 2, with Alex Gordon leading the way with 17 OF assists.

 

[StanMarsh51]

You told me i should stick to talking college sports with bums.....which i never have.....for every college post i have on there i prolly have 20-25 baseball posts

When many of your posts are of this caliber...

Miggy MVP MVP MVP MVP


Maybe next year trout lovers.....but its over.....miggy IS the 2013 MVP

Is there really much substance there?

 

[StanMarsh51]

Funny thing...im a culinary grad so im pretty good with numbers and math....but still......its baseball

What type of 'math?' Knowing the difference between 3/4 and 1/2?

 

[Darkstone42]

OK -- Mike Trout is the Projected Future Performance MVP -- Miguel Cabrera is the actual MVP. There, now everyone is happy.



It is quite simple -- people keep talking about his defense, and I'm guessing it is due largely to the fact he had two unbelievable catches last year that ESPN ran on highlights all year. What they fail to realize is -- Out of the 33 players, who played enough games to qualify for the OF, Mike Trout was the ONLY player out of the 33 that had ZERO outfield assists. As a matter of fact -- only one player (Colby Rasmus, who played the bare minimum to qualify 113 games) had 1 assist. Every other OF in the AL had at least 2, with Alex Gordon leading the way with 17 OF assists.

I'm talking about Trout being an average defender (which he is). Miggy's a terrible defender. The difference between average and terrible is the same as between average and great. Trout has the upper hand defensively. That's obvious. Since we're comparing Trout and Miggy, it only matters what those two players did relative to each other, not to the entire league.

When you say "projected performance MVP," I think you miss the point, as well. I think the more accurate term would be "vacuum performance" or "team-independent performance" MVP. Honestly, I think that's more important when assessing the absolute value a player provided to his team.

 

[Darkstone42]

no they dont... Runs RBIs are not included at all... and these stats are the players true production stats... I like the advanced stats as much as the next guy, and i use them for my evaluations... But i dont understand why you advanced stats people dismiss "team" stats...

Because context is not something a player can control. A player should not be judged on the circumstances in which he was placed, but instead on his absolute performance. This standardizes the league against the same baseline.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

When you say "projected performance MVP," I think you miss the point, as well. I think the more accurate term would be "vacuum performance" or "team-independent performance" MVP. Honestly, I think that's more important when assessing the absolute value a player provided to his team.

Mike Trout is the Projected, Vacuum, Team Independent Performance MVP. Miguel Cabrera is only the AL MVP. Everyone happy now?

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Because context is not something a player can control. A player should not be judged on the circumstances in which he was placed, but instead on his absolute performance. This standardizes the league against the same baseline.

How about this then -- Instead of RBI's -- let's talk about Trout and Cabrera's BA when they were up in the same situations:

Trout's BA with RISP (.324) Cabrera's BA with RISP (.397) Advantage Cabrera
Trout's BA with RISP/2 outs (.290) Cabrera BA with RISP/2 outs (.459) Advantage Cabrera
Trout's BA with Runners on Base (.296) Cabrera BA w/runners on base (.366) Advantage Cabrera
Trout's BA with Bases Loaded (.250) Cabrera BA with Based Loaded (.400) Advantage Cabrera

So if Cabrera hits 73 points higher with RISP, 169 points higher with RISP w/2 outs, 70 points higher with Runners on Base and 150 points higher with the Bases Loaded -- Does that count for their absolute performance or no, because they weren't asked to be placed in these situations?

Does it count that Cabrera did this while being in a pennant race, while Trout played the year stress free as the Angels were never even in the race for the AL West? Or does Sabermetrics not take that into account?

 

[Darkstone42]

How about this then -- Instead of RBI's -- let's talk about Trout and Cabrera's BA when they were up in the same situations:

Trout's BA with RISP (.324) Cabrera's BA with RISP (.397) Advantage Cabrera
Trout's BA with RISP/2 outs (.290) Cabrera BA with RISP/2 outs (.459) Advantage Cabrera
Trout's BA with Runners on Base (.296) Cabrera BA w/runners on base (.366) Advantage Cabrera
Trout's BA with Bases Loaded (.250) Cabrera BA with Based Loaded (.400) Advantage Cabrera

So if Cabrera hits 73 points higher with RISP, 169 points higher with RISP w/2 outs, 70 points higher with Runners on Base and 150 points higher with the Bases Loaded -- Does that count for their absolute performance or no, because they weren't asked to be placed in these situations?

Does it count that Cabrera did this while being in a pennant race, while Trout played the year stress free as the Angels were never even in the race for the AL West? Or does Sabermetrics not take that into account?

No one is arguing that Trout is a better hitter than Cabrera. All I'm saying is that team stats shouldn't be relevant in discussing which player is better. That is, runs and RBIs are not good stats to measure value added.

Cabrera was clearly the more productive of the two in RISP situations. However, when you start breaking things down into splits like this, you can run into sample size issues (and there is often a clear year-to-year inconsistency in RISP stats, even for great hitters, as a result). Cabrera did have the best WPA/LI in the league because of the numbers you cite, though, and it's definitely worth something.

Also, Trout's stats with runners on/in scoring position are still quite excellent, I would like to point out. They're not Cabrera excellent, but they're excellent.

I've changed my mind on who deserved MVP more about fifty times this year between Trout and Cabrera. The problem I've had with the arguments for Miggy being presented in this thread are not that Miggy is being selected as the MVP, but that so many people are essentially arguing that it's obvious that Miggy was the MVP, and that it's foolish to think otherwise. I'm especially put off by the arguments that Miggy was "a better baserunner" or a "better defender" than the numbers suggest. The eyeball test and the numbers agree that Miggy is among the worst defenders in the league at his position, and that he's a well below-average (if not among the worst) as a baserunner. If you think offense is the most important criterion, and that baserunning and defense are wholly secondary to hitting, then the argument for Cabrera holds. But the fact that some of us do value the runs saved by an average versus terrible defender or created by an excellent versus bad baserunner does not make those of us who do so baseball morons, haters, apologists, or any other such classifications.

I know the value of good defense and good baserunning from watching the Pirates from last year to this. They were much better defensively (largely because of Russell Martin) this year, and they were much smarter (and simultaneously more aggressive) on the bases this year. Most of the rest of the team performance was largely the same, but they went from losing team to playoff appearance just with those two changes. Ergo, I significantly penalize Cabrera for his defense and baserunning, and I significantly value Trout for his baserunning.

The other major point of contention I have is a logical inconsistency I held myself before it was pointed out to me on the importance of making the playoffs for an MVP. I have already mentioned this, though, and will not go into any more detail in this post, which is already long enough.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I'd also like to add -- someone earlier was talking about how Trout led the AL in runs created, but I just noticed -- he only led this because of the 60 extra ABs he had over Cabrera.

Cabrera actually led the AL in Runs Created/per 27 outs at 10.09 and Trout was 2nd at 9.29

Just wanted to throw that out there.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Because context is not something a player can control. A player should not be judged on the circumstances in which he was placed, but instead on his absolute performance. This standardizes the league against the same baseline.

And that's why you guys will never be able to get it. Those stats are the actual production stats. And for u guys to dismiss it makes u statistically ignorant. I am not saying to use them at face value But anyone who does not use those stats somehow should never be trusted.

For the record I use them.

I do an actual runs statistic where I do ( RBI + runs- hrs)(1/pa + 1/total team runs).

 

[Wazmankg]

No one is arguing that Trout is a better hitter than Cabrera. All I'm saying is that team stats shouldn't be relevant in discussing which player is better. That is, runs and RBIs are not good stats to measure value added.

Cabrera was clearly the more productive of the two in RISP situations. However, when you start breaking things down into splits like this, you can run into sample size issues (and there is often a clear year-to-year inconsistency in RISP stats, even for great hitters, as a result). Cabrera did have the best WPA/LI in the league because of the numbers you cite, though, and it's definitely worth something.

Also, Trout's stats with runners on/in scoring position are still quite excellent, I would like to point out. They're not Cabrera excellent, but they're excellent.

I've changed my mind on who deserved MVP more about fifty times this year between Trout and Cabrera. The problem I've had with the arguments for Miggy being presented in this thread are not that Miggy is being selected as the MVP, but that so many people are essentially arguing that it's obvious that Miggy was the MVP, and that it's foolish to think otherwise. I'm especially put off by the arguments that Miggy was "a better baserunner" or a "better defender" than the numbers suggest. The eyeball test and the numbers agree that Miggy is among the worst defenders in the league at his position, and that he's a well below-average (if not among the worst) as a baserunner. If you think offense is the most important criterion, and that baserunning and defense are wholly secondary to hitting, then the argument for Cabrera holds. But the fact that some of us do value the runs saved by an average versus terrible defender or created by an excellent versus bad baserunner does not make those of us who do so baseball morons, haters, apologists, or any other such classifications.

I know the value of good defense and good baserunning from watching the Pirates from last year to this. They were much better defensively (largely because of Russell Martin) this year, and they were much smarter (and simultaneously more aggressive) on the bases this year. Most of the rest of the team performance was largely the same, but they went from losing team to playoff appearance just with those two changes. Ergo, I significantly penalize Cabrera for his defense and baserunning, and I significantly value Trout for his baserunning.

The other major point of contention I have is a logical inconsistency I held myself before it was pointed out to me on the importance of making the playoffs for an MVP. I have already mentioned this, though, and will not go into any more detail in this post, which is already long enough.

The MVP is all about whatever sample size a given metric within that one season provides. This is where ... well one of the places where, the saber guys lose me. There's no acknowledgement of the value of situational hitting. There's no such thing as clutch hitting. Maybe there is some merit to that argument over the course a player's entire career. But MVP's are not awarded based upon projections or a player's entire career. They're awarded based upon what a player actually did that 1 season. As the numbers above above show Miggy was better, much better, in these sorts of situations this season. Trout is a fantastic player but who do you think managers would rather pitch to with RISP late & close ? Now I'm probably going to hear about how situations don't matter & all runs are the same, etc. I'm sure Trout will get one eventually. Carry on.

 

[Darkstone42]

The MVP is all about whatever sample size a given metric within that one season provides. This is where ... well one of the places where, the saber guys lose me. There's no acknowledgement of the value of situational hitting. There's no such thing as clutch hitting. Maybe there is some merit to that argument over the course a player's entire career. But MVP's are not awarded based upon projections or a player's entire career. They're awarded based upon what a player actually did that 1 season. As the numbers above above show Miggy was better, much better, in these sorts of situations this season. Trout is a fantastic player but who do you think managers would rather pitch to with RISP late & close ? Now I'm probably going to hear about how situations don't matter & all runs are the same, etc. I'm sure Trout will get one eventually. Carry on.

Sabermatricians do have clutch stats. I cited one, WPA/LI, in which Cabrera led the league. Not all runs are the same to sabermatricians, either, as you would learn from looking at win probability plots for games. There is also a metric called "clutch."

Cabrera's clutch performance is a major plus in his favor, and it's part of what made him the best hitter in baseball. But once all other elements of the game are considered, Trout really closes the gap, and in fact even passes Cabrera.

Sabermetrics is a huge field, and it accounts for just about everything which can happen in a baseball game. Some things we can measure and model better than others, but the numbers, when viewed as a collective, with weighting of the numbers based on confidence in the metrics and the value you place on different aspects of the game, a pretty comprehensive picture can be drawn of what's happening.

Everyone knows Cabrera is a better hitter and a better clutch hitter than Trout. Everyone. I included that in my post.

Trout, though, is a much better defender (despite being only average) and a much better baserunner than Cabrera. I highly value those two contributions, ergo I value Trout more highly as a baseball player.

There seems to be a major disconnect between what sabermetrics are, what they include, and what people perceive about them. Just about every argument a person can make with "traditional stats" can be met with a sabermetric which accounts for it. RBIs are factored into what a hitter does overall, his "clutch," and the value of runs are factored in by his WPA/LI.

I would want Cabrera batting at the end of a close game. But over the course of a full game, over all facets, I want Trout.

 

[Cleaves2000]

What type of 'math?' Knowing the difference between 3/4 and 1/2?

Really? Take it as you want, but theres actually alot of math that goes into cooking...not only did we have to take advanced math courses, we had 2 culinary math classes also.....when dealing with liquids and solids you have to know how to convert to one another....then how to break down yield percentages.....but whatever....

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

There seems to be a major disconnect between what sabermetrics are, what they include, and what people perceive about them. Just about every argument a person can make with "traditional stats" can be met with a sabermetric which accounts for it.

What is the sabermetric stats for a player who is playing without the pressure of a pennant race for basically the entire season?

Or is an AB, just an AB, whether you are fighting for a division crown or you are playing meaningless games the last couple months of the season?

 

[Cleaves2000]

I'm talking about Trout being an average defender (which he is). Miggy's a terrible defender. The difference between average and terrible is the same as between average and great. Trout has the upper hand defensively. That's obvious. Since we're comparing Trout and Miggy, it only matters what those two players did relative to each other, not to the entire league.

When you say "projected performance MVP," I think you miss the point, as well. I think the more accurate term would be "vacuum performance" or "team-independent performance" MVP. Honestly, I think that's more important when assessing the absolute value a player provided to his team.

Why do people think miggy is a terrible defender? His arm makes him below avg to avg in my eyes....up until he got hurt, i dont remember him really hurting us in the field....i mean ryan raburn at 3rd was waaaaaaay worse.....sometimes i wonder if some fans even watch miggy play....i prolly missed 2-3 games all year....love DVR....just like i cant sit here and say a player from another team is terrible if ive only seen him play a few times and seen highlights on sportscenter.