Femurov's Offseason thread 2022

[femurov]

if Jefferson or Kupp end up back in the pile and Chase possibly? I'd consider them for 1st pick as well in PPR format

Pretty sure all 3 will be kept. I know Kupp and Chase weren't kept last year. I think Kupp would cost a 3rd and Chase either a 5th or 6th, so they should be no brainer keepers.

 

[femurov]

I am very much leaning towards Sutton right now. So, the next focus will be on who to take #1 overall. I did some looking into things and have a projection of who will be kept. I don't know most of these guys too well, but it looks like the top available guys are going to be Henry and McCaffrey. After those two, it looks like Mixon, Swift, Saquan, Aaron Jones and guys in that tier. I lean McCaffrey, but I fear the injury bug. But it is not like Henry isn't in danger either, considering last season and the overall wear on him from the years leading up to that. I can't trade draft picks or else I would be dangling that pick like a mofo. It is possible that I could agree to an unofficial deal with the one of the 3 guys I do know well and just draft the traded picks for each other and make the deal after the draft, but that is stretching it (although, I will explore the possibility). But assuming I am stuck with the pick, who you got? Or is there someone else I should be considering?

My projected keeper list, in case someone is curious...

Cook (1st)
Ekeler (1st)
Najee (1st)
Taylor (2nd)
Kupp (3rd)
DJ Moore (4th) - I don't remember his other options, but I don't think they are good.
Javonte (5th)
Conner (6th)
Chase (6th)
Fournette (6th)
Elijah Mitchell (7th or 8th - I still don't know for sure)

 

[TKOSpikes]

I am very much leaning towards Sutton right now. So, the next focus will be on who to take #1 overall. I did some looking into things and have a projection of who will be kept. I don't know most of these guys too well, but it looks like the top available guys are going to be Henry and McCaffrey. After those two, it looks like Mixon, Swift, Saquan, Aaron Jones and guys in that tier. I lean McCaffrey, but I fear the injury bug. But it is not like Henry isn't in danger either, considering last season and the overall wear on him from the years leading up to that. I can't trade draft picks or else I would be dangling that pick like a mofo. It is possible that I could agree to an unofficial deal with the one of the 3 guys I do know well and just draft the traded picks for each other and make the deal after the draft, but that is stretching it (although, I will explore the possibility). But assuming I am stuck with the pick, who you got? Or is there someone else I should be considering?

My projected keeper list, in case someone is curious...

Cook (1st)
Ekeler (1st)
Najee (1st)
Taylor (2nd)
Kupp (3rd)
DJ Moore (4th) - I don't remember his other options, but I don't think they are good.
Javonte (5th)
Conner (6th)
Chase (6th)
Fournette (6th)
Elijah Mitchell (7th or 8th - I still don't know for sure)

Henry and CMac is a toss up… no wrong answer, as injury will be the only thing to devalue them.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Henry and CMac is a toss up… no wrong answer, as injury will be the only thing to devalue them.

CMC has a higher ceiling in ppr, imo, due to his passing game volume

@femurov - Patrick going down at practice today feels like Sutton is a slam dunk for your keeper now. prob doesn't change Sutton's role at all, but one less reliable mouth to feed for Russ

 

[femurov]

CMC has a higher ceiling in ppr, imo, due to his passing game volume

@femurov - Patrick going down at practice today feels like Sutton is a slam dunk for your keeper now. prob doesn't change Sutton's role at all, but one less reliable mouth to feed for Russ

Yup. KJ Hamler could be a sneaky late round flier.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Yup. KJ Hamler could be a sneaky late round flier.

Bold statement of milks day. Hamler will have a better season than Jeudy

 

[femurov]

Bold statement of milks day. Hamler will have a better season than Jeudy

Very bold.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Very bold.

i do have my logic... but dont know how strongly i believe this yet...

 

[femurov]

So, I have my first non dynasty draft of the season coming up this Sunday night. 12 teams, PPR. QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, Flex (R/W/T), K, DEF, IDP, and 6 bench. I pick 6th...

My son has the #1 overall pick and he is going JT. 2 - 8 or so this year is pretty similar. I am thinking I will be choosing between Najee, Cook and Mixon. If someone slips (Henry, CMac, Ekeler?), should I pounce on that? I have the whole CMac vs Henry debate in a different league, but Mixon is available in that one, also and I am starting to wonder. But that draft is around Labor Day, so this one takes precedence. I have been doing some mocks and I am really hoping someone different falls to me in the 2nd. Guys like Chubb, AJones, Swift all seem to be gone there. May think about a WR there, but Tyreek is usually the best one I look at. Will probably go RB heavy the first few rounds unless someone crazy falls. Been watching the Survivor or Eliminator or whatever draft going on and I wouldn't mind if it falls like that, I think.

 

[TKOSpikes]

So, I have my first non dynasty draft of the season coming up this Sunday night. 12 teams, PPR. QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, Flex (R/W/T), K, DEF, IDP, and 6 bench. I pick 6th...

My son has the #1 overall pick and he is going JT. 2 - 8 or so this year is pretty similar. I am thinking I will be choosing between Najee, Cook and Mixon. If someone slips (Henry, CMac, Ekeler?), should I pounce on that? I have the whole CMac vs Henry debate in a different league, but Mixon is available in that one, also and I am starting to wonder. But that draft is around Labor Day, so this one takes precedence. I have been doing some mocks and I am really hoping someone different falls to me in the 2nd. Guys like Chubb, AJones, Swift all seem to be gone there. May think about a WR there, but Tyreek is usually the best one I look at. Will probably go RB heavy the first few rounds unless someone crazy falls. Been watching the Survivor or Eliminator or whatever draft going on and I wouldn't mind if it falls like that, I think.

Henry/CMac is a coin flip for me.
I’d put Mixon and Cook ahead of Ekeler, followed by Najee.

 

[femurov]

I think I have them ranked something like this...

Henry
Najee
Cook
Mixon
CMac
Ekeler

I think the CMac injury history is scaring me. And I have been having trouble believing too much in Ekeler. I think Najee is going to be fed a lot and catch a lot of balls this year. I like Cook and am a little scared of the legal troubles, but plan on grabbing Mattison if I end up with Cook. We will see how that changes in about 30 hours or so.

 

[averagejoe]

I think I have them ranked something like this...

Henry
Najee
Cook
Mixon
CMac
Ekeler

I think the CMac injury history is scaring me. And I have been having trouble believing too much in Ekeler. I think Najee is going to be fed a lot and catch a lot of balls this year. I like Cook and am a little scared of the legal troubles, but plan on grabbing Mattison if I end up with Cook. We will see how that changes in about 30 hours or so.

I am right with you on CMC. 10 games in the last 2 seasons is concerning.
I too like Henry over him.

Side note - draft sharks has an injury gauge on both but their data conflicts imo.​

CMC has a 84% chance of injuring himself in 2022 and would miss 2.2 games.​

Meanwhile Henry has an 89% chance of injury but would miss 1.90 games.​

Henry plays for a stable, solid, productive offense. (ranked 17th last year with him missing much of the season). He averaged almost 30 touches a game (29.8) and is a TD monster, accounting for 24% of the Titans TD last season (in just 8 games played).
CMC is rumored to be be getting tons of touches. But his team was ranked 30th in yards and 29th in points scored.

It was joked about on the other thread, but I agree with whoever said that Cook's legal issues will probably be a non-factor all season. The NFL just doesn't move that quick.

 

[femurov]

Here it is, in all its glory...


QB - Murray
RB - Henry, Javonte, Dobbins, Jacobs, M. Carter
WR - AJ Brown, Juju, M. Brown, Eli Moore, R. Moore, Boyd
TE - Fant
K - Bass
Def - Cleveland
IDP - D. White

 

[femurov]

So my main money keeper league draft is coming up Sunday. 12 teams, we keep 2 offensive players and 1 IDP. PPR with bonus points for long TD plays (over 40). Start QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, Flex (R/W/T), K, P, 7 IDPs and we have 7 bench players. I have made some deals and have a healthy amount of picks in the 2nd and 3rd. I have 1.12, 2.1, 2.4, 2.10, 3.9, and 3.12. I'm breaking down the top 20 or so with my options for the 4 picks I have between 12 and 22 overall. Here is how I see it...

My keepers

Mahomes and Diggs


The draft pool...

Kamara (I probably wouldn't take him number 1 overall, but if you feel like the legal stuff won't be an issue, he's probably the top guy)
Javonte Williams
CeeDee Lamb

Mike Evans
Keenan Allen (I wouldn't mind getting two of these 3 WRs, but I doubt Lamb will fall and I am starting to think Evans will get gobbled up as well)
Mark Andrews (I expect him to go, but while I usually shy away from the top TEs, I have so many picks that grabbing one that I like makes sense.)
Barkley
Fournette
Zeke (I'm pretty high on him and would love for him to be there on that 1st turn, but I don't think he will fall.)
Kyle Pitts
AJ Brown


Michael Pittman
Breece Hall
JK Dobbins
Etienne

James Conner
David Montgomery
Dionte Johnson
DJ Moore
Kittle (I don't like his injury history
AJ Dillon
Josh Jacobs


I didn't include the QBs, since I am keeping Mahomes, but I imagine that a few will probably go, so this is probably who I am looking at? Am I missing anyone? Tee Higgins and Cam Akers are probably the 2 non no-brainer keepers that were kept that would be in that range. I feel like I should be looking to get a mix of proven talent and breakout potential with my RBs. And it wouldn't surprise me if I end up with about 5 of them by the end of the 3rd. Since I'm not keeping one, I have to use the shotgun spray strategy and hope I end up with 2 reliable starters and maybe a flex option. I mentioned that I usually shy away from TEs early, but a few years ago, I was in a similar situation with a few extra picks early on and I grabbed a TE early and it worked out well for me. I was able to make up the depth at RB and WR with the extra picks. I think I may look to do that again. Plus, once the IDPs start coming off the board, some of the guys a little lower ranked than these guys will get pushed down the board and I can scoop them up in the 8th - 12thish rounds if I need to.

I guess I am mainly looking to see if I have my tiers right and make sure there is nobody else I want to consider. I am really hoping to get AJ Dillon in the 3rd. Really high on him. I may even consider a trade up or even taking him at 2.10, depending on what I am looking at with that pick.

 

[femurov]

I did leave off Darren Waller, but I would probably put him a spot or two above Kittle. There are also a few tweaks I would make, but I don't think anyone would jump tiers. Maybe Conner. I think I am warming up to him. Very solid when healthy and I think he does have a clear cut cuff in Darrel Williams, who is way under the radar and could be had late as a cuff. Or an end of the bench flier if I don't end up with Conner.

 

[femurov]

The final results...

QB - Mahomes (K)
RB - Elliott (1.12), D. Montgomery (2.10), AJ Dillon (3.9), D. Harris (3.12), K. Walker (7.3), Mattison (14.1)
WR - Diggs (K), Mooney (5.6), Thielen (6.1), Kirk (9.12), C. Claypool (11.9)
TE - M. Andrews (2.1), K. Pitts (2.4)
K - Bass (9.12)
P - M. Dickson (11.1)
DL - D. Lawrence (16.1), J. Allen (listed as a LB, so I have to drop him and get a new DL.. 17.12)
LB - D. White (K), D. Davis (11.12), D. Lloyd (18.1)
DB - J. Adams (12.1), J. Simmons (12.6)

I will walk you guys through the draft here in a bit. Especially, the part where I end up with 2 TEs. Pretty surprising to me that it worked out that way, but here we are...

 

[femurov]

So, the 1st round went somewhat similar to what I thought, especially the first half with RBs going early and often. Top 5 were Kamara, Javonte, Conner, Barkley, and Fournette. Gears shifted to WRs with the next 4 picks being AJ Brown, Allen, Evans and CeeDee. I actually walked over to the guy picking 9th and was about to talk trade, but he spit out the pick before I could initiate talks. Etienne went 10th and Mike Williams went 11th.

I was pretty happy that Zeke fell to that turn and very surprised that I was looking at every TE outside of Kelce (who was kept). In year's past and especially last year, TEs have had a tendency to get overdrafted. I figured I would start the run with Andrews next. Michael Pittman and Courtland Sutton were the next 2 picks and I was otc again. My next highest guys on the board were like Hall, Monty and Dobbins at RB and DJ Moore at WR. I mentioned the idea of a trade down before I got on the clock and nobody was interested. I ended up (to my own surprise) taking Pitts there. I can start a TE in the flex, so I figured, "Why not?". Again, I had the extra picks to play with. Moore went 1 pick before my next pick at 2.10, but I still had my choice of the same RBs. I took Monty, who I have become less worried about losing touches to Herbert, but still wonder if I made the right choice there. I took Dobbins over Monty in a different draft last week and am not sure that I shouldn't have done that here. Probably reached a little for AJ Dillon, but he was very high on my go get list. I think he could be huge in the 2nd part of the season. Got sniped at 5.6, where I wanted to get one of my handcuffs. Pollard went on the 4/5 turn and Rhamondre went the pick before me, much to my dismay. Good news is that the same guy took both players and really likes Kyle Pitts. Bad news is that I am not going to trade Pitts for 2 handcuffs, so he better plan on adding something to sweeten the deal. I had to hit WRs, especially after the snipes, so I went with Mooney and Thielen over the suspended DHop. Was planning on grabbing him if he fell to 7.3. He made it to 6.11. So, I turned my attention to Rashaad Penny, who went 7.2. Bitch double sniped me. I ended up with Walker there instead of grabbing Devin Singletary and getting pissed when someone sniped me on James Cook the next round. Singletary went 8.6 and Cook lasted past my next pick at 9.12, but who knows if the dude who took Singletary would have taken Cook at 8.6?

Overall, I know my WRs are weak, which is weird, since I was contemplating taking a couple real early. I plan on flipping one of those TEs for a stud WR, so that will help. Didn't get as many RBs as I would have liked early on and not getting the cuffs hurt a bit, but I may be able to scoop one of them off the ww if they start out of the gate slow. The dude that got them isn't always the most patient with those kind of players. Looks like another season of having too much depth and not enough studs. But I will be working the wire and the trade lines, and in that sense, I have a lot to work with as far as ammo to go get what I want. Probably should have ignored TEs like I normally do and grabbed an extra RB and WR there and waited on a TE (Kittle went 3.11 and Waller went 4.4). But, that surprised a lot of people.

I appreciate all the input that you guys have given me over the past few weeks/months about this. 1 more keeper league draft to prepare for before the season starts. I will probably refresh that info a few days before, so be prepared.

 

[femurov]

IDP guys... I mentioned that I need another DL. Javon Hargrave, Gregory Rousseau, Jonathan Greenard, Charles Harris and Marcus Davenport are all available. Any preference there?

 

[femurov]

Von Miller is listed as a DE in my league. That is a possibility, as well.

 

[femurov]

So, after drafting 2 TEs so early, I made it well known that I am open for business. Had some people interested, but nobody has put any sort of offer together. I played around with a few teams and didn't really see anything that I like. Delved a little deeper and found this possibility...

His team...

QB - Lance
RB - Ekeler, Akers, Chase Edmonds, Rhamondre, Pollard
WR - ARob, Amon-Ra, Gabriel Davis, Aiyuk, Skyy Moore, Pickens, Marvin Jones
TE - Irv Smith


My team...

QB - Mahomes
RB - Elliott, D. Montgomery, AJ Dillon, D. Harris, K. Walker, Mattison
WR - Diggs, Mooney, Thielen, Kirk, C. Claypool
TE - M. Andrews, K. Pitts


I'm going to wait until some offers come to me before proposing this, but this is what I came up with...

Pitts, Harris, and Mattison

for

Akers, ARob and Pollard


Not sure how much Pitts' potential keeper value should be factored in, but I do like the handcuff of Pollard and he will appreciate the trade off with Harris. He has the WR depth to stand the loss of Robinson (or Amon, if I decide I like him better. He drafted them both on the same turn) I like the upgrade at RB, although I'm not sure how I feel about Akers, but he would be a flex option most weeks. Should I ask for something else? IDP upgrade or mid round draft pick bump or something like that? We use picks to even out a lot of deals in this league.