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Femurov's keeper league offseason thread

Discussion in 'Fantasy Football Forum - Message Board' started by femurov, Jan 17, 2019.

  1. femurov

    femurov Well-Known Member

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    So, I hope to keep all my offseason advice stuff in one thread instead of starting a bunch of threads whenever something comes up. Key word is "hope". Basically, I am trying to get away from having to type out all the rules and requirements and scoring and all that a bunch of times because I am lazy. So, here goes...

    Scoring...

    PPR, bonus points for TDs over 40 yards, 1/50 return yards.

    Starting requirements...

    QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, Flex (R/W/T), K, P, 7 IDPs.

    Off season stuff...

    So, we ultimately keep 2 offensive players and 1 IDP. We declare these keepers on or around July 4th at our Annual Summer Meeting. On Super Bowl Sunday, we cut our roster down to 5 players. We can trade off this roster for players or draft picks. I currently pick 7th overall, then have 2 picks in the 2nd (13 and 21), then my pick in the 3rd (36), and 3 picks in the 4th (37, 42, and 45). I will be looking to trade 1 or 2 of my potential offensive players for picks. There aren't too many people who would be looking to improve their keepers, but I have identified a couple possibilities.

    My 5 man squad will consist of James Conner, Leveon Bell, OBJ, Tyreek Hill and whichever IDP I decide to keep. I feel like I would be happy with any two of those guys. I have a little bit of an idea of how I would actually rank these guys, but Bell's FA could change those rankings and I probably wouldn't make a deal until I see how that plays out.

    Here are the potential "buyers" this offseason and who I project to be their final 2, as of now. Other possibilities for keepers are in parenthesis...

    Team 3 (picks 3rd in the draft) - Zeke and Cohen (Russell Wilson). There is potential to upgrade Cohen for him to one of my guys, but this guy probably overvalues Cohen because he is a Bears fan and honestly, he is not the best fantasy player out there and has made questionable moves in the past. For example, last year he kept Russell Wilson over David Johnson.

    Team 4 (picks 4th) - Melvin Gordon and AJ Green. (Phillip Lindsay) He may be perfectly happy with these guys, but this guy is kind of a wild card. He is a known wheeler and dealer and will gladly deal picks to improve his keepers if he thinks he needs it. It's possible that we could make a deal early in the off season with him thinking he will be able to deal Green (or Lindsay) to someone else to make up for it.

    Team 6 (I think you see the pattern here) - Dalvin Cook and DHop (Rodgers, Carson, Brandin Cooks). This is a savvy owner who probably will not make a deal unless he is getting great value. He may be frustrated with Cook and be looking to move on. I see him being a back up plan if I can't get one of the other teams to bite.

    Team 11 - Travis Kelce and Adam Thielen (Robert Woods) - This guy is not much of a trader. Probably the least likely to make a deal.

    Team 2 - Kerryon Johnson and Stefon Diggs (Brady, Jordan Howard, Cooper Kupp) - This is who I am locked in on. I feel like he has the biggest need to improve his keepers. I could deal 2 of my guys to him and he would greatly improve his keepers. I am hoping he would give up the #2 overall pick and move back to one of my picks in the 2nd (probably 13). I think it makes sense for him to do that.


    So, where you guys come in...

    Basically, I want to rank my 4 keepers and more importantly, should I have any of them "off limits" or at least be asking more for them than for one of the other guys? Right now, I think I rank them Hill, Bell/OBJ (depending on where Bell ends up), then Conner. I know Hill has a short shelf life overall, but his explosiveness is too good to pass up in this scoring system. I think Conner is the least proven of this group and is the one I will be pushing to deal.

    Also, am I right in my assessment of my potential buyers (as far as who they have and whether a trade would make sense based on who they would potentially be keeping? I realize you guys don't know these people and couldn't speak intelligently about their trading habits).

    Yes, I realize that I have a lot of time to think about this and a lot will happen in the off season that could change my thinking.

    As always, I appreciate any input.
     



  2. SteelersPride

    SteelersPride Well-Known Member

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    Honestly @femurov
    im a rb's guy art rooney says he wants the steelers to run more, and conner was pretty good when he wasnt hurt, he is the starting rb

    id probably rank
    hill
    conner
    OBJ
    bell
     
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  3. SmokingMonkey

    SmokingMonkey MLS....come to STL!!!

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    Hill
    Conner
    Bell
    OBJ

    is how I'd rank them right now.
    and I think you'll get a solid 3 yrs of high-end production from Hill, MINIMUM
    not a chiefs fan at all here, but i watched a lot of them this year since Mahomes is exciting to watch.
    Hill's developing his game, not just a blow-the-top-off guy, and he has one of the best HC's out there to game plan getting the ball in his hands.

    I was pretty high on Conner coming out of college, so in any type of keeper/dynasty format, I'll put him above Bell for now, until we see where Bell ends up. PIT consistently has a top fantasy RB, Conner is the 3rd different name in 4 seasons now. I think he eats again next year.

    Bell - see above, landing spot is going to go a long way for me to move him past Conner here. It has to be a little scary for Bell owners in keeper/dynasty formats. Alarming that he'd sit out an entire season with the $s he left on the table and the mileage he's piled up in his 2 most recent healthy seasons. RB is a position of high turnover for a reason, the body can only take so many hits.

    OBJ - could easily be pushed above Bell for me, and really have these two pretty damn even, and I prefer RBs when given the choice. 1) love that he signed long term in NY now that every DC in the league in on notice to figure out how to stop Barkley 2) also kinda hate that he's stuck in NY, with Eli getting old and no real succession plan in place, from what I can tell by their backups, or I think they would've given one of them some 2-3 games starting/playing a lot after OBJ went down at the end of the year. (or they did do that, and I just didn't pay attention since it was a lost season for the giants)
     
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  4. femurov

    femurov Well-Known Member

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    So, I was chatting with team 6 today and he is very interested in improving his keeper situation. Obviously, he is happy with DHop, but he is definitely not sold on Cook, but is considering him, Rodgers and possibly Calvin Ridley as his 2nd keeper. He is interested in Conner, Hill and Bell, depending on where he ends up. He mentioned a couple of times that he has an extra 3rd he would be willing to play with. I told him I have some extra picks in the early rounds as well, and we agreed that we should be able to make a deal, but also we would have to wait to see how NFL's FA plays out.

    Encouraging discussion.
     
  5. averagejoe

    averagejoe You've pulled one of the classic blunders.

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    I think I'm with Monkey even if SP's top 2 are identical.

    Not sure if your keepers extend beyond 2019?
    Right now I'm low on OBJ. Barkley seems to own the touches and I'm not very high on Eli going forward. If the Giants move on from Manning, the thought of a rookie/raw QB throwing to a double-teamed OBJ seems like a no-no.
    As for Bell, he has baggage, but the other concern is if he lands on a team with a worse run-blocking line than PIT. His patience in waiting for a hole to open up may result in some consistent losses on another team.
     
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  6. femurov

    femurov Well-Known Member

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    We can keep our players for as long as we want.

    I think we all agree that OBJ and Bell are pretty close in value and that Hill is at the top. I just can't see Bell going to a situation where he won't get fed the ball 300+ times next season and even if he doesn't produce at his elite level, I feel like he would be a solid starter. I would think no matter where he ends up, he will be taken before Dalvin Cook in most redrafts.
     
  7. femurov

    femurov Well-Known Member

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    And I think I am warming up to the idea of Conner. He will be the lead back in Pittsburgh next season, produced well last season and seems to have a clear handcuff to ensure you own a team with a pretty good running system for fantasy owners.
     
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  8. SteelersPride

    SteelersPride Well-Known Member

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    bell is going to the highest bidder regardless of roles and useage
     
  9. femurov

    femurov Well-Known Member

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    But, no team is going to be the highest bidder and not want to use the fuck out of him. If they're forking out the $17 million that he wants... and some team will... they are going to make sure he is getting the ball.
     
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  10. SteelersPride

    SteelersPride Well-Known Member

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    thats the thing, i dont think he gets 17 million. i also dont see a team changing their whole scheme jsut for bell, and if they do. THey probably will change it back when they realize its not gonna work

    jaylen samuels never had more than 19 carries EVER in college or pros, and look what happened when he did.......

    You have to admit, the system plays a part

    hell you all hate cj anderson, look at the system
     
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  11. SteelersPride

    SteelersPride Well-Known Member

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    that being said , someones gonna pay him a buttload more than hes worth 12mill +
     
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  12. SteelersPride

    SteelersPride Well-Known Member

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    the likes of james conner, damien williams, cj anderson should give teams pause.

    LIke i said i think gurley is great. BUt his system is better. Hes not the MVP on that team regardless of stats, his system and line are MVP. put him on the cards ands he playing like david johnson

    some teams just have systems for successful RB's like the broncos with shanny used to
     
  13. averagejoe

    averagejoe You've pulled one of the classic blunders.

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    My guess is whoever signs Bell is gonna try to write some clauses into the contract given his history of missing games voluntarily. Bell may not like it. But he probably won't like his actual market value for an aging diva RB.
     
  14. SmokingMonkey

    SmokingMonkey MLS....come to STL!!!

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    not to mention all the games he missed involuntarily, via injury + weed stuff
     
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  15. SteelersPride

    SteelersPride Well-Known Member

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    at least some of you guys on this board are starting to see some of the bell stuff, the general board still doesnt see it.
     
  16. femurov

    femurov Well-Known Member

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    So, now that FA has been going on for a couple of weeks and some chips have fallen, I figure it may be time for a little update in the rankings. The consensus was pretty much Hill, then Conner, then Bell and Beckham were close at the bottom. With the news of Hill and the Beckham trade, I think things have shifted a little. Hill is sort of an unknown right now. I think for now, I will just assume he is going to get suspended for around 6 games. This drops him to the bottom of the list. I think Beckham shoots to the top, then Bell and Conner are close. If Hill does end up getting in trouble for this, I don't see me being able to move him and I don't think I can keep him, so he just gets dropped, leaving me with 3 options for my keepers. Team 6 is still interested in either Conner or Bell and will be offering a 3rd for either, most likely. Team 4 is now interested in Beckham. He has his 1st round pick, then he doesn't pick again until the 5th round, so unless he is coming off that 1st (which is possible), I won't get very far. If he does offer his 1st, I will have to figure out what pick I would be giving him back (I have plenty in the first 4 rounds) that would make it worth it.

    So, I am thinking I will have to choose between these two deals...

    Team 4 gives his 1st (#4 overall) and a player that I will drop (Lindsay or AJ Green, probably) for OBJ and maybe his 4th back?

    Team 6 gives his 3rd and a player that I will drop (Dalvin Cook, probably) for Conner or Bell and my 15th (my last pick as of now).

    I think I have to go with the first one if this is how it falls. But, how high does the pick (that I give back for the 1st round pick) have to get for me to take the 2nd deal? A 2nd?
     
  17. averagejoe

    averagejoe You've pulled one of the classic blunders.

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    I'm probably missing some of the minutia of your keeper rules but OBJ and Bell for me.

    Deal the others imo. Like you said, Hill is a question mark; Conner lost a step imo in week 10, then missed 3 weeks. Also think Antonio's departure hurts him.
     
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  18. femurov

    femurov Well-Known Member

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    * minutiae

    If you are going to use SAT words, spell them right, smarty pants!
     
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  19. averagejoe

    averagejoe You've pulled one of the classic blunders.

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    Was loosely quoting Rocket from Guardians of the Galaxy. And that's what spell check gave me.
     
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