Femurov's all in one offseason thread

[femurov]

Ok, guys. We're coming down the home stretch and I am probably no closer to being ready to make this decision. Here is the op for those who need it...

Main league. Essentially, we keep 2 players. I can trade for draft picks, but most people are set with their keepers and are not interested. For this exercise, I would say that a deal is not possible and I am looking at cutting 2 of these guys.

12 teams, start 2/2 and a flex in the skill positions (RB and WR). 1 QB and 1 TE and some IDPs and a K and P. PPR with bonus for TDs over 40 yards. We can keep a player for as long as we like and there are no draft pick restrictions.

Stefon Diggs - Should be a top 10 WR again. Been my keeper the last 2 seasons and has not disappointed.

Rhamondre Stevenson - Unless there is a vet signing (Fournette/Zeke), he should be the feature back there this year. Even if they sign one of those guys, they shouldn't eat into his touches too much.

Derrick Henry - A lot of wear on those tires and he could be looking at more stacked boxes than ever with a rookie QB possibly taking over the job at some point of the season.

Kenny Walker - Big loser after draft day as the Hawks drafted a RB in the 2nd round. He should definitely be 1a, but he went from an absolute no brainer keeper to very questionable with that pick. Or am I overreacting?


I have the 5th, 11th and 14th picks, so if I am forced to cut 2, there is a decent shot one of them would be available at 5. Either that or someone somewhat comparable that someone else had to drop. I have until July 31st to decide and I will probably change my mind every day up until that day. But, what do you guys think? Before the draft, I was leaning heavily towards Henry and Walker, but I am not so sure now.

I guess, gun to my head, right now I am keeping Rhamondre and Diggs. I will do a final lap in case someone has changed their tune about a trade, but I feel like we can rule that out. It doesn't really look like much has changed in any of these situations. Probably the biggest move was James Robinson getting signed and then released.

Looking around the league, there is a very good chance that one of Etienne, Najee, or Hall get dropped. Add in Bijon Robinson to whichever 2 I drop and the possibilities at 5 look solid as far as who is available. Plus there is always a surprise drop that happens.

Am I missing anything?

 

[TKOSpikes]

Ok, guys. We're coming down the home stretch and I am probably no closer to being ready to make this decision. Here is the op for those who need it...





I guess, gun to my head, right now I am keeping Rhamondre and Diggs. I will do a final lap in case someone has changed their tune about a trade, but I feel like we can rule that out. It doesn't really look like much has changed in any of these situations. Probably the biggest move was James Robinson getting signed and then released.

Looking around the league, there is a very good chance that one of Etienne, Najee, or Hall get dropped. Add in Bijon Robinson to whichever 2 I drop and the possibilities at 5 look solid as far as who is available. Plus there is always a surprise drop that happens.

Am I missing anything?

I’m still on the Henry (and Diggs) side.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I’m still on the Henry (and Diggs) side.

so am i... but its difficult... I feel like you keep Henry because he is safe... but you really don't want to keep him... Stevenson has great upside... but that really is all it is... upside...

 

[TKOSpikes]

so am i... but its difficult... I feel like you keep Henry because he is safe... but you really don't want to keep him... Stevenson has great upside... but that really is all it is... upside...

Henry gets the big return if Femurov decides to move him mid-season… or more effectively helps for a playoff run.

By the sounds of the draft, getting Stevenson back in that Najee/Hall/Etienne range is more likely than Henry (just a guess)… though I suppose any of those five wouldn’t be considered punishment.

 

[femurov]

Henry gets the big return if Femurov decides to move him mid-season… or more effectively helps for a playoff run.

By the sounds of the draft, getting Stevenson back in that Najee/Hall/Etienne range is more likely than Henry (just a guess)… though I suppose any of those five wouldn’t be considered punishment.

Throw Bijan on that list, also. I think someone snags him before 5, but he pushes someone down a spot.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Henry or Stevenson enough to get you that first pick so you can take Bijan?

Diggs + Bijan + Henry or Stevenson would be a nice start

 

[femurov]

Mixon just got dropped. There was the unexpected one that happens every year.

KWIII is now out in this decision due to the injury. Basically comes down to Rhamondre vs Henry, I think. I have until midnight if anyone has any last minute things to factor in.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Mixon just got dropped. There was the unexpected one that happens every year.

KWIII is now out in this decision due to the injury. Basically comes down to Rhamondre vs Henry, I think. I have until midnight if anyone has any last minute things to factor in.

the best advice i can give is not who do you think will be better this season... it is who will you be more upset about if you drop them and they have a better season than the other one...

 

[femurov]

the best advice i can give is not who do you think will be better this season... it is who will you be more upset about if you drop them and they have a better season than the other one...

I'm leaning towards the one I think has the better chance to get back to me at 5. Although, Mixon helps take the sting out of missing out on that person greatly.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Keep Henry, draft Stevenson if you want him back

That is, if you can't get Bijan

 

[Shanemansj13]

Main league. Essentially, we keep 2 players. I can trade for draft picks, but most people are set with their keepers and are not interested. For this exercise, I would say that a deal is not possible and I am looking at cutting 2 of these guys.

12 teams, start 2/2 and a flex in the skill positions (RB and WR). 1 QB and 1 TE and some IDPs and a K and P. PPR with bonus for TDs over 40 yards. We can keep a player for as long as we like and there are no draft pick restrictions.

Stefon Diggs - Should be a top 10 WR again. Been my keeper the last 2 seasons and has not disappointed.

Rhamondre Stevenson - Unless there is a vet signing (Fournette/Zeke), he should be the feature back there this year. Even if they sign one of those guys, they shouldn't eat into his touches too much.

Derrick Henry - A lot of wear on those tires and he could be looking at more stacked boxes than ever with a rookie QB possibly taking over the job at some point of the season.

Kenny Walker - Big loser after draft day as the Hawks drafted a RB in the 2nd round. He should definitely be 1a, but he went from an absolute no brainer keeper to very questionable with that pick. Or am I overreacting?


I have the 5th, 11th and 14th picks, so if I am forced to cut 2, there is a decent shot one of them would be available at 5. Either that or someone somewhat comparable that someone else had to drop. I have until July 31st to decide and I will probably change my mind every day up until that day. But, what do you guys think? Before the draft, I was leaning heavily towards Henry and Walker, but I am not so sure now.

Keep Diggs and Henry.

Diggs - no brainer.
Henry - until Henry shows sign of regress and there is another threat in the Titans backfield...Henry is a keeper over Stevenson and Walker. That being said, if the Seahawks don't draft a RB-I would have went with Walker.

 

[leftypower]

I wouldn't expect Bijan to drop to 5. As for me, in keeper/dynasty I'd go with the younger player in Stevenson - minority opinion from what I've seen here but the drop in production is coming fast on Henry. .... I've been wrong before, but just feel when it comes it will be from every week starter to Damn, I can't give him away. ....

 

[Shanemansj13]

It will be interesting to see Stevenson being a true #1 back this year. We will see how he handles it but the opportunity is there. I thought the drop off for Henry has been coming but he is just a freak. He is like Lebron at the RB position. The guy handles a huge workload and is still elite. He could get injured but he is healthy you know they will still give him a huge workload.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Mixon just got dropped. There was the unexpected one that happens every year.

KWIII is now out in this decision due to the injury. Basically comes down to Rhamondre vs Henry, I think. I have until midnight if anyone has any last minute things to factor in.

Still on Henry. Plus, the addition of Hopkins makes him better.
When your player hits the wall, it sucks, but when you think your player will hit the wall and you dump him, and he doesn’t, that suckser.
Stevenson might be as good as whoever you get at 6, Henry needs something to happen to him for him not to be well above them.

 

[averagejoe]

Just gonna take a stab here and mention that i own Henry in my other dynasty league. And i will add that yes, i have some concerns over his age (29) and his mileage.

I also own Stevenson. And while i hoped that he'd be a solid back and have better stats, i do wonder if it will happen.

I have an unwritten rule that if a player cannot make an impact in year 1, he probably never will. He is already age 25 when most upper tiered RB are hitting their peaks in their careers.

Now admitedly, i break my own rule sometimes based on circumstances. Well, Rhamondre is entering year 3 and while some may say he has started to make his impact last season, the reality is that he hasnt been a true fantasy RB1 (yet). (And i did try to trade him twice this offseason.)

Most RS owners are hoping he becomes Henry. Well, you already have Henry.

Just food for thought.

 

[averagejoe]

Lemme just add Rhamondre finished as the RB7 in 2022, but in redrafts, his ADP is lower than 7 which indicates other fantasy owners may have some hesitance as well.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I also own Stevenson. And while i hoped that he'd be a solid back and have better stats, i do wonder if it will happen.

I have an unwritten rule that if a player cannot make an impact in year 1, he probably never will. He is already age 25 when most upper tiered RB are hitting their peaks in their careers.

Lemme just add Rhamondre finished as the RB7 in 2022

just playing devil's advocate here, as I'd also be keeping Henry over Stevenson if given the choice, but what do you want from a 2nd yr RB if RB7 finish isn't good enough?

 

[averagejoe]

just playing devil's advocate here, as I'd also be keeping Henry over Stevenson if given the choice, but what do you want from a 2nd yr RB if RB7 finish isn't good enough?

IMO RB numbers were down across the board. Dont think too many fantasy owners were overly thrilled with their RB unless they owned the top 3 or 4 from last year. Think that unhappiness in the RB is translating to the ADP of WR in round one for 2023.

If RB7 is great, then why is he going in round 2 of redrafts?

Then there is the "rumor" that BB wants to sign EE. Doesnt sound like a ringing endorsement from Hoodie for Rhamondre to bring in another RB.

 

[TKOSpikes]

IMO RB numbers were down across the board. Dont think too many fantasy owners were overly thrilled with their RB unless they owned the top 3 or 4 from last year. Think that unhappiness in the RB is translating to the ADP of WR in round one for 2023.

If RB7 is great, then why is he going in round 2 of redrafts?

Then there is the "rumor" that BB wants to sign EE. Doesnt sound like a ringing endorsement from Hoodie for Rhamondre to bring in another RB.

I don’t see how the Pats don’t add another back. It’s late though, and I’m surprised they haven’t already. Not sure why they’d lock up Devante Parker with double digit millions… strange times in New England.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

IMO RB numbers were down across the board. Dont think too many fantasy owners were overly thrilled with their RB unless they owned the top 3 or 4 from last year. Think that unhappiness in the RB is translating to the ADP of WR in round one for 2023.

If RB7 is great, then why is he going in round 2 of redrafts?

Then there is the "rumor" that BB wants to sign EE. Doesnt sound like a ringing endorsement from Hoodie for Rhamondre to bring in another RB.

nice explanation, makes sense

have to go back to 2015 to find the most recent year the top RB failed to score over 20pts/gm in half ppr, Foster and Charles both injured that year too.

my biggest knock against Stevenson for fantasy is that Patricia was the OC last year, their OL play wasn't very great, leading to a lot of Mac Jones panic throws/dump offs, boosting Stevenson's receiving usage to levels that will be hard to maintain with a better offensive game plan. Maybe better OC means more TDs and less catches but overall positive fantasy impact.

Felt like we saw enough of Stevenson without Harris last year (he missed 6 games, was limited in a few others) and there's enough positive and negative changes that backend RB1/high-end RB2 is a fair valuation...which makes 2nd round ADP right to me.