Femurov's keeper league offseason thread

[femurov]

So, we're less than 2 weeks away from my draft in this league. I ended up keeping Conner and ODB, shipped off Bell for a couple of picks and almost had a deal at the last minute to trade Hill away, but dude pulled out and I had to drop him. Here is a list of the offensive players kept by position...

QB - Mahomes, Russ Wilson
RB - Gurley, Jordan Howard, Zeke, Melvin Gordon, Phillip Lindsay, Joe Mixon, Bell, Kamara, David Johnson, Barkley, McCaffrey, Conner
WR - Julio, Diggs, Antonio Brown, Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Devonte Adams, Mike Evans, Thielen, ODB
TE - Kelce


These are my picks in the first half of the draft...

1.7, 2.1, 2.7, 2.9, 3.12, 4.1, 4.6, 4.9, 5.12, 6.1, 6.7, 7.3, 7.12, 8.1, 9.12


I understand that I have to let the draft come to me and take advantage of what it gives me, but with all those picks and a pretty solid keeper group, I should look to fill out my starting lineup in the first 4 rounds, I think. If I do that, TE looks like the thinnest group. There are basically 2 guys that are available on that top tier... Ertz and Kittle. I like Ertz and think he is probably worth my pick in the first. I've been on the fence (and still am) about Kittle, but I have been warming up to him. I doubt either one will be there when I pick at the top of the 2nd, so if I get one, it would have to be in the first. I'm probably looking at a RB like Fournette, Freeman, Kerryon or a WR like Keenan Allen, TY or Cooper if I pass on TE there.

I've been doing mocks and if I miss or pass on Kittle or Ertz, I usually end up with someone like Njoku and sometimes a 2nd guy in that range or below. I don't like the next group of guys at their current ADPs, basically. I have Engram at the top of the list and could see me taking him if he falls to one of my 4ths, but I don't see him slipping that far.

Another value dilemma I'm in is at QB. I think the past few years have proven that you don't need one of the preseason elite options, but since i have so many early picks, I feel like I should maximize my starters and grab a guy like Rodgers, Luck or Watson. My depth at WR and RB will be excellent no matter what I decide to do, so I might as well try to grab the elite everywhere else.

Maybe I should post the results of a couple of mocks where I test out the different strategies to see what you guys like the best...

And again, I appreciate all the input you guys have given me for this...

 

[Shanemansj13]

So, we're less than 2 weeks away from my draft in this league. I ended up keeping Conner and ODB, shipped off Bell for a couple of picks and almost had a deal at the last minute to trade Hill away, but dude pulled out and I had to drop him. Here is a list of the offensive players kept by position...

QB - Mahomes, Russ Wilson
RB - Gurley, Jordan Howard, Zeke, Melvin Gordon, Phillip Lindsay, Joe Mixon, Bell, Kamara, David Johnson, Barkley, McCaffrey, Conner
WR - Julio, Diggs, Antonio Brown, Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Devonte Adams, Mike Evans, Thielen, ODB
TE - Kelce


These are my picks in the first half of the draft...

1.7, 2.1, 2.7, 2.9, 3.12, 4.1, 4.6, 4.9, 5.12, 6.1, 6.7, 7.3, 7.12, 8.1, 9.12


I understand that I have to let the draft come to me and take advantage of what it gives me, but with all those picks and a pretty solid keeper group, I should look to fill out my starting lineup in the first 4 rounds, I think. If I do that, TE looks like the thinnest group. There are basically 2 guys that are available on that top tier... Ertz and Kittle. I like Ertz and think he is probably worth my pick in the first. I've been on the fence (and still am) about Kittle, but I have been warming up to him. I doubt either one will be there when I pick at the top of the 2nd, so if I get one, it would have to be in the first. I'm probably looking at a RB like Fournette, Freeman, Kerryon or a WR like Keenan Allen, TY or Cooper if I pass on TE there.

I've been doing mocks and if I miss or pass on Kittle or Ertz, I usually end up with someone like Njoku and sometimes a 2nd guy in that range or below. I don't like the next group of guys at their current ADPs, basically. I have Engram at the top of the list and could see me taking him if he falls to one of my 4ths, but I don't see him slipping that far.

Another value dilemma I'm in is at QB. I think the past few years have proven that you don't need one of the preseason elite options, but since i have so many early picks, I feel like I should maximize my starters and grab a guy like Rodgers, Luck or Watson. My depth at WR and RB will be excellent no matter what I decide to do, so I might as well try to grab the elite everywhere else.

Maybe I should post the results of a couple of mocks where I test out the different strategies to see what you guys like the best...

And again, I appreciate all the input you guys have given me for this...

Looks like these are the best at each position at the top of the draft:

QB - Watson, Rodgers, Ryan, Baker, Wentz
RB - Chubb, Damien, Jacobs, Cook, Jones, Mack, Freeman, Fournette
WR - Hill, Juju, Allen, Hilton, Cooper, Edelman, Woods, Cooks
TE - Kittle, Ertz

Is this a 12 team draft? Could be interesting who goes in the first. Probably want to solidfy that rb2 position unless an elite WR falls to your 1.7....TE should be interesting. Wonder if Kittle or Ertz drops to your 2nd round pick...

 

[SteelersPride]

Yeah I’m thinking bpa in round 1, possible at that 2.1 as well I’d rather take 2 studs than force a tight end. Why if Jeffrey comes back in this year and goedert? We know wentz loves ertz but they added much competition for targets. And u don’t love kittle. So stack up and roll the dice late?

 

[femurov]

Looks like these are the best at each position at the top of the draft:

QB - Watson, Rodgers, Ryan, Baker, Wentz
RB - Chubb, Damien, Jacobs, Cook, Jones, Mack, Freeman, Fournette
WR - Hill, Juju, Allen, Hilton, Cooper, Edelman, Woods, Cooks
TE - Kittle, Ertz

Is this a 12 team draft? Could be interesting who goes in the first. Probably want to solidfy that rb2 position unless an elite WR falls to your 1.7....TE should be interesting. Wonder if Kittle or Ertz drops to your 2nd round pick...

12 teams. I feel like Tyreek or Juju will go 1st. The other probably 2nd.

I would add Luck to the QBs until we know for sure what is going on with his leg. Maybe Kerryon and Henry to the RBs, and maybe Golladay to the WRs. But I am looking at getting 4 of those guys, basically.

I'm wondering the same about Kittle and Ertz. If they are both there at 7 and I pass, the guy who picks 8th also picks 12th and had Ertz last year. He kept Mahomes and Michael Thomas. Honestly, I feel like it is possible he takes a TE at 12 if he doesn't like the RBs or WRs. The guy who picks 11th kept Kelce, so he probably wouldn't be a threat. 9 and 10 both have 1 stud RB and a very good WR and would probably prefer a RB or WR with their 1st, but may consider a TE.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

i think you'll be able to pick between Ertz and Kittle at 2.1, go best RB/WR available with your 1st


i think it'll be Hill, Juju, Damien, Chubb, Jacobs, Cook that go before you.
If not, take the one that falls to you at 1.7

 

[Shanemansj13]

12 teams. I feel like Tyreek or Juju will go 1st. The other probably 2nd.

I would add Luck to the QBs until we know for sure what is going on with his leg. Maybe Kerryon and Henry to the RBs, and maybe Golladay to the WRs. But I am looking at getting 4 of those guys, basically.

I'm wondering the same about Kittle and Ertz. If they are both there at 7 and I pass, the guy who picks 8th also picks 12th and had Ertz last year. He kept Mahomes and Michael Thomas. Honestly, I feel like it is possible he takes a TE at 12 if he doesn't like the RBs or WRs. The guy who picks 11th kept Kelce, so he probably wouldn't be a threat. 9 and 10 both have 1 stud RB and a very good WR and would probably prefer a RB or WR with their 1st, but may consider a TE.

Yeah I mean if there aren't better options, add Luck. I just think with his injury past and the reports coming out recently...it scares me personally.

Yeah definitely have options at 7. BPA might be the play but it really just depends.

 

[femurov]

Yeah I’m thinking bpa in round 1, possible at that 2.1 as well I’d rather take 2 studs than force a tight end. Why if Jeffrey comes back in this year and goedert? We know wentz loves ertz but they added much competition for targets. And u don’t love kittle. So stack up and roll the dice late?

I have been leaning towards this the past few days after being set on a TE early for a couple months almost. I'm also starting to come around to a guy like Howard or Henry. I think Engram is almost on a tier to himself after Kittle and Ertz. Maybe he falls to that 3.12/4.1 turn and I can grab him there. I'm really hoping Rodgers/Luck/Watson falls to that spot, too. I think that would be best case scenario for me.

Also starting to gain love for a couple guys recently in Jacobs, Mack and Aaron Jones. I think I would be pretty happy with 2 of those guys in the 2nd.

 

[Shanemansj13]

i think you'll be able to pick between Ertz and Kittle at 2.1, go best RB/WR available with your 1st


i think it'll be Hill, Juju, Damien, Chubb, Jacobs, Cook that go before you.
If not, take the one that falls to you at 1.7

yeah those were my thoughts.

I don't think anyone grabs QB or TE with the first 6 so:

Hill, Juju 1-2...that might be set in stone.

Then a combo of WR-RB with the next 4 picks: Chubb, Damien, Allen, Jacobs, Cook....RB heavy depending on what the teams have.

 

[femurov]

i think you'll be able to pick between Ertz and Kittle at 2.1, go best RB/WR available with your 1st


i think it'll be Hill, Juju, Damien, Chubb, Jacobs, Cook that go before you.
If not, take the one that falls to you at 1.7

I'm not sure how I feel about Damien or Cook. And I'm not big on Chubb, although I have been considering taking him if he falls to me at 2.1 (which I seriously doubt), and try to ride the first half of the year and trade him before people realize Hunt is coming back.

I actually like the WRs better there. Keenan, TY, or Cooper are who I am considering.

 

[femurov]

1 - Gurley and Julio
2 - Jordan Howard and Diggs
3 - Zeke and Russ Wilson
4 - Melvin Gordon and Lindsay
5 - Mixon and AB
6 - DHop and Bell
7 - Me
8- Michael Thomas and Mahomes
9 - CMac and Mike Evans
10 - Saquan and Adams
11 - Theilen and Kelce
12 - same as 8
13 - Me

 

[Shanemansj13]

I'm not sure how I feel about Damien or Cook. And I'm not big on Chubb, although I have been considering taking him if he falls to me at 2.1 (which I seriously doubt), and try to ride the first half of the year and trade him before people realize Hunt is coming back.

I actually like the WRs better there. Keenan, TY, or Cooper are who I am considering.

I have Damien in two leagues now. I have rated probably higher than most but with people passing on him I am able to grab him late and using him as my RB2. He is the clear #1. Carlos Hyde is his backup and honestly he is trash. Reid also loves him so he should get plenty of touches. Small sample size as the #1 but imo worth the risk.

Honestly I would feel better about grabbing Damien or Chubb then Cook. He scares me, 14 games in 2 years and still young...that scares the shit out of me.

If you don't feel good about any of those guys maybe Keenan Allen drops to you..that would be a gift. Not sure how I feel about Hilton at that spot, more of a 2nd round pick. If it was me it would be between: Chubb, Damien or K Allen....if those 3 are gone. BPA.

 

[femurov]

So, this is a mock I did where I went RB/WR early and often and waited on a mid tier QB and TE...

QB - Wentz, Rivers, Kyler
RB - Conner, Devonta Freeman, Jacobs, Tevin Coleman, Ballage
WR - OBJ, Keenan Allen, Woods, Tyler Lockett, Tyler Boyd
TE - Henry

Honestly not as deep at RB as I have been in other mocks. Especially for not grabbing a top QB or TE.

 

[Shanemansj13]

1 - Gurley and Julio
2 - Jordan Howard and Diggs
3 - Zeke and Russ Wilson
4 - Melvin Gordon and Lindsay
5 - Mixon and AB
6 - DHop and Bell
7 - Me
8- Michael Thomas and Mahomes
9 - CMac and Mike Evans
10 - Saquan and Adams
11 - Theilen and Kelce
12 - same as 8
13 - Me

Well in that case...

1 - Hill
2 - Juju
3 - Chubb
4 - Allen
5 - a RB (depends on who he likes Damien, Jacobs, Cook)
6 - a RB (same Damien, Jacobs, Cook)
7 - your BPA is WR - Hilton/Cooper or RB - Damien/Jacobs/Cook

Tough choices. Throw Aaron Jones in there but I don't know how you feel about him...I feel like he is in the next tier of RB's.

 

[Shanemansj13]

So, this is a mock I did where I went RB/WR early and often and waited on a mid tier QB and TE...

QB - Wentz, Rivers, Kyler
RB - Conner, Devonta Freeman, Jacobs, Tevin Coleman, Ballage
WR - OBJ, Keenan Allen, Woods, Tyler Lockett, Tyler Boyd
TE - Henry

Honestly not as deep at RB as I have been in other mocks. Especially for not grabbing a top QB or TE.

You know Freeman is guy that is being undervalued...and I am one of those people. I think he could get back to form this year.

 

[femurov]

Here is one where I went TE in the 1st...

QB - Baker, Brees
RB - Conner, D. Freeman, Jacobs, Ingram, Ito
WR - OBJ, Golladay, Boyd, Mike Williams, Corey Davis, Gallup
TE - Ertz

 

[Shanemansj13]

So, this is a mock I did where I went RB/WR early and often and waited on a mid tier QB and TE...

QB - Wentz, Rivers, Kyler
RB - Conner, Devonta Freeman, Jacobs, Tevin Coleman, Ballage
WR - OBJ, Keenan Allen, Woods, Tyler Lockett, Tyler Boyd
TE - Henry

Honestly not as deep at RB as I have been in other mocks. Especially for not grabbing a top QB or TE.

Here is one where I went TE in the 1st...

QB - Baker, Brees
RB - Conner, D. Freeman, Jacobs, Ingram, Ito
WR - OBJ, Golladay, Boyd, Mike Williams, Corey Davis, Gallup
TE - Ertz

Out of these two I like both.

I think both you ended up with nice starting QB's.

Having Freeman and Jacobs in both gives you some depth at RB.

WR depth I like the combo better in the 1st one.

If you could get Ertz/Kittle in the 2nd it would be a huge win imo

 

[SmokingMonkey]

break open your piggy bank and buy a ticket for the Kittle Train

VIDEO: George Kittle is Getting Some Seriously Intense Offseason Workouts in

 

[femurov]

This is one where I went QB with my last pick in the 2nd...

QB - Rodgers, Winston
RB - Conner, D. Freeman, Ingram, Henry,
WR - OBJ, Allen, Woods, Boyd, Calvin Ridley, Corey Davis
TE - Cook, Njoku

 

[femurov]

break open your piggy bank and buy a ticket for the Kittle Train

VIDEO: George Kittle is Getting Some Seriously Intense Offseason Workouts in

I am starting to come around on Kittle. Or, maybe dropping Ertz down a little.

 

[femurov]

Here's one where I get a TE at 2.1...

QB - Goff, Rivers
RB - Conner, Kerryon, Henry, Ingram, Cohen
WR - OBJ, Allen, Golladay, DJ Moore, Mike Williams, Corey Davis
TE - Ertz