Femurov's all in one offseason thread

[averagejoe]

...which makes 2nd round ADP right to me.

Actually his ADP is 3rd round (28th overall). Ouch.

 

[femurov]

My draft is this Thursday. I know it is not ideal to draft so early, but people's schedules were a pain in the ass to work around this year and this is the best we could do.

Here is a recap of the rules and important info...

Main league.

12 teams, start 2/2 and a flex in the skill positions (RB and WR). 1 QB and 1 TE and some IDPs and a K and P. PPR with bonus for TDs over 40 yards. We can keep a player for as long as we like and there are no draft pick restrictions.


My keepers are Stefon Diggs, Derrick Henry, and Devin White.

I have the 5th, 11th and 14th (2.2) picks, and then 3.1 and 4.2. I am missing my 5th and 8th, but have 6.2 and 7.11. I usually soak up as many useful RBs and WRs as I can before looking at TEs and QBs, but I will pivot when I see value. Last year, I had an extra pick in the early 2nd and ended up with both Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts (swing and a miss!).

There was a trade made last week to send the #1 overall pick to the guy who has JT, Ekeler and #3. Dude took advantage of the guy with 1's desperation and sent 2 late 2nds for it. So, this guy has both #1 and #3 overall. My insiders are telling me that this guy is almost set on taking AJ Brown at 1 and then Bijan at 3 if he is still there. If not, it will be either Najee, Gibbs or Garrett Wilson. The guy at 2 has kept 2 RBs (CMac and Barkley), so I imagine he goes WR (Wilson?), but he is pretty unpredictable and may even go QB. He was having a tough time deciding whether to keep Joe Burrow over one of his RBs. This guy also has #6, so it is possible, he takes Bijan as the BPA and goes QB at 6, since it is doubtful that the people before him go QB. The guy at 4 is a bit of a wild card as well. He kept Dalvin Cook and George Kittle and threw Mixon back in the pot. I imagine he would want to go RB, especially if Cook does not sign before our draft.

Here are the top few players available at each position...

QB - Lamar, Burrow, Herbert, TLaw, Fields, Dak
RB - Bijan, Rhamondre, Najee, Mixon, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker, Gibbs, Sanders, Dobbins, Conner, etc.
WR - AJ Brown, Wilson, Waddle, Olave, Higgins, Devonta, DK, Keenan Allen, etc
TE - Andrews, Hock, Waller, Goedert, Pitts

I don't see any keepers that would be rated lower than any of these guys. I feel like I want to come away with a RB at 5, then scoop up the BPA at 11 and 14, which would probably be a WR unless someone I would consider at 5 falls. I may consider Jones or Walker or maybe Gibbs at 11 or 14, but it will probably be WR. I have to believe that AJB and Bijan will be long gone by 5, even if the dude at 1 was throwing up smokescreens. I would jump on Bijan and would probably take Brown over Mixon, but not Rhamondre or Najee. I feel like there are plenty of WRs on that 2nd and 3rd tier (in my draft) and the drop off at RB would be steep if I miss out on my top guys there.

I'm not sure that I have to get a QB and a TE by the time my pick in the 6th comes around unless I like the value enough. I don't mind scooping up a Freiermuth, or Engram or Njoku or even taking a stab at someone like Dulcich or Higbee at TE. Likewise with QBs. Cousins, ARod, Dimes, Russ, Tua, etc... grabbing 2 or even 3 of those in hopes that 1 proves to be a solid weekly starter or 2 are worthy of playing matchups isn't a bad idea, imo. I figure that I have 7 bench spots and I don't use any for my IDPs, so if I end up with 2 backup QBs on my bench and a backup TE, that would mean my 4 bench WRs and RBs would be very solid and added to my 5 starters at those positions would give me nice depth out of the gate. Another sneaky play if I wait on QB is to grab Kyler Murray and hope for a week 5 or 6 return. If it ends up being later, I should be able to stash him on IR. I could also wait on a kicker. As in, not draft one and do a ww move before week 1 to let the battles play themselves out. That would give me another bench spot. I could probably do the same with a punter, but I have a couple that I really like and would be happy to draft where I plan on drafting them (later rounds).

Again, more-so trying to type everything out for reference than asking for advice, but I will gladly listen if someone thinks I am missing something or looking at things the wrong way. I will probably list my rankings at each position later tonight so you guys can help me split those hairs if you have the desire to do so.

 

[femurov]

So, my top 5 yesterday was Bijan, Rhamondre, Najee, AJ Brown and Mixon. Today, I think it's the same 5, but the order has changed. Not sure how far Rhamondre falls, though.

 

[TKOSpikes]

So, my top 5 yesterday was Bijan, Rhamondre, Najee, AJ Brown and Mixon. Today, I think it's the same 5, but the order has changed. Not sure how far Rhamondre falls, though.

Zeke give you any pause on Rham?

 

[femurov]

Zeke give you any pause on Rham?

That's what I am trying to figure out. At first yes, but I am starting to look past it. Maybe Najee jumps ahead of him, but that is probably it.

 

[averagejoe]

I know BB has his critics as well as his disciples. If anything, BB is not stupid. He won't fit a square peg into a round hole.

Dallas has always boasted having a good O-line. Even with that EE was meh. I don't see EE doing much damage to Stevenson's touches tho he may pillage a few redzone TD.

 

[femurov]

So, the draft was this past Thursday night and I am just getting around to posting it here. Been a pretty busy weekend. So here is the roster with the pick number in ( )s...

QB

Dak Prescott (7.11)
Kyler Murray (15.3)

RB

Derrick Henry (Keeper)
Najee Harris (1.5)
Rhamondre Stevenson (1.11)
JK Dobbins (4.2)
Devon Achane (9.11)
Jerick McKinnon (10.2)
Jaylon Warren (14.11)

WR

Stefon Diggs (Keeper)
Chris Olave (2.2)
Amari Cooper (3.1)
Drake London (6.2)

TE

Tyler Higbee (17.11)

K

Brandon McManus (20.2)

P

Jake Camarda (16.2)

DL

Cameron Jordan (18.2)
Demarcus Lawrence (19.11)

LB

Devin White (Keeper)
Peter Werner (12.2)
Cole Holcomb (14.2)

DB

Antoine Winfield (11.11)
Marcus Jones (20.10)



So, at 1.5, I had already made the choice of Najee over Rhamondre and it worked out as Rhamondre fell to 1.11. I don't think Najee would have fallen if I had taken Stevenson. I was surprised to see Olave at 2.2 and took him over DK, who I was also considering. 3.1 was probably my longest decision. I was thinking Miles Sanders until he went 2 picks before. Considered JK Dobbins there, but ultimately decided that I wanted a WR there. Considered Keenan Allen, but I have been really warming up to Cooper recently, when I had him lower than most of the guys around his tier. I actually almost traded into 3.12 and would have taken Burrow there and then a RB at 4.2, but the deal fell through. Took Dobbins, but I liked a few RBs there. I also tried to trade up to 5.3 to take Trevor Lawrence, but dude had his sights set on George Pickens there. I was ecstatic to see Drake London still there at 6.2, so I am not all that mad about not being able to trade up. I felt Dak was a cut above all the other QBs and grabbing him at 7.11 was the right thing to do. I just hope he doesn't press charges. On my 9 and 10 turn, I liked Achane and McKinnon as mid round sleepers at RB. Wilson and Mostert were already gone, so getting the guy who may end up the starter by talent or injury sooner than later was a solid move. I originally had pick 10.12, but traded it for a 9th next year (we gave up 20ths in the respective years to make the picks even). I loaded up on IDPs in the 2nd half, while stopping to grab Najee's handcuff and a solid starting QB whenever he comes back in Murray. When the Cardinals officially put him on IR, I plan on doing the same and grabbing another backup QB, since there are plenty of solid options left (Carr is my first option if he is still there). I love my punter, as he is on what should be a struggling offense and he does the kickoffs, so there is a few extra chances at a tackle. Tight ends went pretty fast and furious, so I decided to pick from the scrap heap late. I have my eye on a few guys early in the season.

Overall, I am pretty happy with the squad. I will probably end up making a trade for a QB and/or TE if I feel the need, but the meat and potatoes (RB/WR) of my team is very solid and deep.

 

[femurov]

So, on to the next one. PPR, 12 teams, 1 keeper, you lose the round you drafted him in, and you can't keep the same player twice in a row. Normal starters, QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, Flex (R/W/T), K, P. Here are my options for keepers. I pick 10th.

Henry for a 1st.
Etienne for a 3rd
Dobbins for a 4th
Breece Hall for a 5th
Pollard for a 7th
DHop for a 9th
Javonte Williams for a 7th, I think. A little unsure of the rule on FA pickups.

It's Pollard, right? Easily. There was probably no reason to even post this. But there's nothing I am missing here, right?

 

[Shanemansj13]

So, on to the next one. PPR, 12 teams, 1 keeper, you lose the round you drafted him in, and you can't keep the same player twice in a row. Normal starters, QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, Flex (R/W/T), K, P. Here are my options for keepers. I pick 10th.

Henry for a 1st.
Etienne for a 3rd
Dobbins for a 4th
Breece Hall for a 5th
Pollard for a 7th
DHop for a 9th
Javonte Williams for a 7th, I think. A little unsure of the rule on FA pickups.

It's Pollard, right? Easily. There was probably no reason to even post this. But there's nothing I am missing here, right?

Yep. POLLARD…in a heartbeat. Amazing value

 

[broncosmitty]

So, on to the next one. PPR, 12 teams, 1 keeper, you lose the round you drafted him in, and you can't keep the same player twice in a row. Normal starters, QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, Flex (R/W/T), K, P. Here are my options for keepers. I pick 10th.

Henry for a 1st.
Etienne for a 3rd
Dobbins for a 4th
Breece Hall for a 5th
Pollard for a 7th
DHop for a 9th
Javonte Williams for a 7th, I think. A little unsure of the rule on FA pickups.

It's Pollard, right? Easily. There was probably no reason to even post this. But there's nothing I am missing here, right?

Has to be Pollard.

That’s crazy value.

Who did you keep last year? A receiver?

 

[femurov]

Has to be Pollard.

That’s crazy value.

Who did you keep last year? A receiver?

Cortland Sutton for a 6

 

[femurov]

So, I can finally put Kyler Murray on IR and grab another back up QB from the scrap heap. I guess I grab the guy with the best upside? Pickett, Love, Bryce, Ridder, Purdy, Mac, Stroud? Or grab a vet like Stafford, Tanny, Jimmy G, Baker?

I think I have it narrowed down to Baker, Love, Pickett, Bryce Young, Stafford or Ridder. I have Dak, so I could hold off on a 2nd QB since there are so many around the same level. Someone dropped Dalton Schultz and I have Higbee. I could let them fight it out for a week or so before I worry about a backup QB.

 

[eaglesnut]

Pickett, Purdy or Stafford with Stafford having the most upside and the most downside.

The team around Purdy is going to produce points for him.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

None of those QBs are difference makers, either wait it out or grab one that stacks with one of your WRs/TE like Stafford-Higbee

 

[TKOSpikes]

So, I can finally put Kyler Murray on IR and grab another back up QB from the scrap heap. I guess I grab the guy with the best upside? Pickett, Love, Bryce, Ridder, Purdy, Mac, Stroud? Or grab a vet like Stafford, Tanny, Jimmy G, Baker?

I think I have it narrowed down to Baker, Love, Pickett, Bryce Young, Stafford or Ridder. I have Dak, so I could hold off on a 2nd QB since there are so many around the same level. Someone dropped Dalton Schultz and I have Higbee. I could let them fight it out for a week or so before I worry about a backup QB.

I’m eyeing Pickett for my backup.

I’m thinking he’s last years Trevor Lawrence… maybe a tick better.

Dak’s bye is week seven… Pickett would be coming off his week six bye.

 

[femurov]

I’m eyeing Pickett for my backup.

I’m thinking he’s last years Trevor Lawrence… maybe a tick better.

Dak’s bye is week seven… Pickett would be coming off his week six bye.

He looked good against Atlanta.

 

[femurov]

Work league. 12 team PPR. QB, 2RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 FLEX (R/W/T), K, DEF, 6 Bench.

QB - Trevor Lawrence
RB - Ekeler, Rhamondre, Aaron Jones, Pierce, AJ Dillon, Roschon
WR - Olave, Hollywood, Jeudy, Sutton, Nico Collins
TE - Chiggy O, Shultz
K - McManus
DEF - Washington (vs Arizona week 1)

Fantasy Pros has me as the top team. I like it.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Work league. 12 team PPR. QB, 2RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 FLEX (R/W/T), K, DEF, 6 Bench.

QB - Trevor Lawrence
RB - Ekeler, Rhamondre, Aaron Jones, Pierce, AJ Dillon, Roschon
WR - Olave, Hollywood, Jeudy, Sutton, Nico Collins
TE - Chiggy O, Shultz
K - McManus
DEF - Washington (vs Arizona week 1)

Fantasy Pros has me as the top team. I like it.

Very risky WR though… but upside is there.

 

[femurov]

PPR, 12 teams, 1 keeper, you lose the round you drafted him in, and you can't keep the same player twice in a row. Normal starters, QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, Flex (R/W/T), K, DEF.

Kept Tony Pollard for my 7th round pick. I picked 10th.

QB - Herbert (6.3), Dak (11.10)
RB - Pollard (K-7.10), Dameon Pierce (3.10), Miles Sanders (4.3), James Cook (5.10), Roschon Johnson (13.10)
WR - CeeDee Lamb (1.10), D. Smith (2.3), M. Brown (8.3), C. Sutton (9.10), S. Moore (10.3), Nico Collins (12.3)
TE - G. Everett (14.3)
K - Bass (15.10)
DEF - Jacksonville (vs Indy week 1 - 16.3)

 

[femurov]

PPR with bonus points for long TDs.

My team...

QB - Dak, Kyler (IR)
RB - Henry, Rhamondre, Ford, Najee, Warren, Spears, McKinnon, Achane
WR - Diggs, Olave, Cooper, London
TE - Higbee


His team...

QB - Burrow, Love
RB - A. Jones, Justice Hill, Perine, Zamir White
WR - Adams, D. Smith, Jeudy, Boyd, Skyy
TE - Juwan Johnson

He lost Chubb and got outbid for Ford. He wants a RB. Not sure who exactly he likes outside of Ford. I'm thinking Najee is expendable now, but not sure where his value is. Maybe Najee for Burrow? I can afford to stash Joe on my bench and wait for his calf to heal. I could also add his cuff if I need to. Also tossing around the idea of Najee and Cooper/London for Adams.

There is another team with a need at RB.

His team...

QB - Herbert, Howell
RB - Conner, Roschon, Herbert, Bigsby, Kendre Miller
WR - Amon-Ra, Lamb, Addison, DJ Moore, Puka
TE - Hayden Hurst
Is Dak and Najee enough to get me Justin Herbert? Or Cooper and Najee for Lamb?

I know Najee's value is plummeting now and I may have to include Warren to make it somewhat attractive. Just wondering how much it has plummeted.