Femurov's All in One 2024 Offseason and Fantasy Season Advice Thread

[Shanemansj13]

you really think you can do better than CeeDee at #7 overall, in a keeper?

If you take Lamb you don't get your 1st but you possibly get the #1 WR in fantasy.
If you take Collins you get a top 15 projected WR in the 12th. What will be there at #7 is the question?

Lamb and your 12th or ??? and Collins?

WR's projected to go in the 12th include: Adonai Mitchell, Brandin Cooks and Josh Palmer....and that is without keepers

 

[HaroldSeattle]

you really think you can do better than CeeDee at #7 overall, in a keeper?

No but is Nico Collins and St. Brown (using Fantanty pro ADP) > Lamb plus who ever is available for you in round 12? I picked 8th in my keeper league and keep Hill (who costed a first) but not sure I made the right call.

 

[TREFF]

No but is Nico Collins and St. Brown (using Fantanty pro ADP) > Lamb plus who ever is available for you in round 12? I picked 8th in my keeper league and keep Hill (who costed a first) but not sure I made the right call.

but you're assuming that St Brown, or 5 others ahead of him in ADP aren't also being kept. you might end up with Garret WIlson, I dunno. But I would certainly would hedge towards CeeDee unless I had a top 2-3 pick, and even then I'd be leary unless I know CMAC and Bijan were around for the taking

 

[TREFF]

I mean there's value, and getting a very good player at a very cheap price, and then there's having an elite asset at a slight discount.

Isn't the 'golden rule' of trades (in general) to acquire the best player in the deal?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

but you're assuming that St Brown, or 5 others ahead of him in ADP aren't also being kept. you might end up with Garret WIlson,

Damn good point Treff, makes me feel better about keeping Hill.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

If you take Lamb you don't get your 1st but you possibly get the #1 WR in fantasy.
If you take Collins you get a top 15 projected WR in the 12th. What will be there at #7 is the question?

Lamb and your 12th or ??? and Collins?

WR's projected to go in the 12th include: Adonai Mitchell, Brandin Cooks and Josh Palmer....and that is without keepers

at worst case the 7th pick is really the 19th pick... that is the worst case... chances are that it remains a first round value...

id probably still keep collins...

I would make the bet id still be able to get a legit first rounder... but keeping Lamb is probably the safest path...

 

[femurov]

I am pretty sure CMac, Hall, Tyreek, and Chase were kept last year. The guy who has Bijan also has Puka that he can keep for an 8th. So, I think I should be looking at a similar board as a redraft, but I may be wrong.

 

[eaglesnut]

you really think you can do better than CeeDee at #7 overall, in a keeper?

Well it's CeeDee and his 12th for Nico and his first.

 

[eaglesnut]

12 team PPR. Keep 1 player and lose the round he was drafted in and we cannot keep the same player twice in a row. Undrafted players count as 8th rounders. I pick 7th.

RB James Cook - 5th
WR CeeDee Lamb - 1st
WR Courtland Sutton - 9th
WR Tank Dell - 8th
WR Nico Collins - 12th
RB Chuba Hubbert - 8th

It has to be Nico Collins for my 12, right?

Sutton for a 9th is good. Payton's WR1 do good things.

Nico scares me. Diggs in town, Dell gets open. Will he be just a field stretcher?

No one likes Cook for 5th?

 

[femurov]

Sutton for a 9th is good. Payton's WR1 do good things.

Nico scares me. Diggs in town, Dell gets open. Will he be just a field stretcher?

No one likes Cook for 5th?

Crossed my mind, but I can't get over the value on Nico.

 

[TREFF]

I am pretty sure CMac, Hall, Tyreek, and Chase were kept last year. The guy who has Bijan also has Puka that he can keep for an 8th. So, I think I should be looking at a similar board as a redraft, but I may be wrong.

That's might not be too terrible. Nico and something in that value area wouldn't be bad

Not knowing all the specifics, it's hard to pass up having Lamb.

 

[tlance]

you really think you can do better than CeeDee at #7 overall, in a keeper?

Yes

Because you are still getting a really good player at 7 even though not CeeDee

You are getting a back up who likely gets cut in round 12

 

[TREFF]

Yes

Because you are still getting a really good player at 7 even though not CeeDee

You are getting a back up who likely gets cut in round 12

He got Nico in the 12th last year..ya never know

 

[tlance]

He got Nico in the 12th last year..ya never know

You do.

It is a bad decision.

I’m not super high on Nico at his price, but the value difference in those options is crazy.

Can only keep players for 1 year and only keep 1 player. That means guys aren’t likely to keep 1st rounders.

So worst case he is getting a player like Jonathan Taylor, Amon Ra, Justin Jefferson, Breece hall.

One of those guys + Nico is a far better start to a team than CeeDee and whatever dart throw you get in round 12.

It is not close. CeeDee not enough better than what he will get at 7 to justify passing on that value.

 

[TREFF]

You do.

It is a bad decision.

I’m not super high on Nico at his price, but the value difference in those options is crazy.

Can only keep players for 1 year and only keep 1 player. That means guys aren’t likely to keep 1st rounders.

So worst case he is getting a player like Jonathan Taylor, Amon Ra, Justin Jefferson, Breece hall.

One of those guys + Nico is a far better start to a team than CeeDee and whatever dart throw you get in round 12.

It is not close. CeeDee not enough better than what he will get at 7 to justify passing on that value.

Meh.. big assumption he's getting a player like that. Many of them are due to be kept, and there's 6 picks on front of him.

It ain't cut and dry in the slightest, plenty of variables that may it may not work or in both scenarios

 

[tlance]

Meh.. big assumption he's getting a player like that. Many of them are due to be kept, and there's 6 picks on front of him.

It ain't cut and dry in the slightest, plenty of variables that may it may not work or in both scenarios

It isn’t a big assumption.

It is math. Highly unlikely more than 1 of the elite guys gets retained in a league with these retention rules.

Best decisions we can make are based on value. Sometimes you make the right decision and it doesn’t work out. Sometimes you make the wrong decision and it works anyway.

The value is cut and dry. Keeping Lamb would be a bad decision.

Could still work, but it isn’t the correct move for maximizing talent on the roster.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

It isn’t a big assumption.

It is math. Highly unlikely more than 1 of the elite guys gets retained in a league with these retention rules.

Best decisions we can make are based on value. Sometimes you make the right decision and it doesn’t work out. Sometimes you make the wrong decision and it works anyway.

The value is cut and dry. Keeping Lamb would be a bad decision.

Could still work, but it isn’t the correct move for maximizing talent on the roster.

That’s pretty harsh. I agree that Collins is the way to go. But lamb is the safest keep.

Him being the 7th pick and it being likely that other first rounders will be kept the worst case is that he is really pick 19. Best case he is pick 7. Odds are that the pick will retain first round value but lamb is a top 5 pick. So lamb is still value. And it is nice to have an elite player

 

[Shanemansj13]

That’s pretty harsh. I agree that Collins is the way to go. But lamb is the safest keep.

Him being the 7th pick and it being likely that other first rounders will be kept the worst case is that he is really pick 19. Best case he is pick 7. Odds are that the pick will retain first round value but lamb is a top 5 pick. So lamb is still value. And it is nice to have an elite player

You are still getting a 2nd round player and Nico. So using your 19th pick projection....Davante Adams, Isiah Pacheco, Chris Olave or Mike Evans.

So you get one of those players and Nico.
If you take Lamb you most likely get a top 5 WR barring an injury but who else do you get. Maybe a decent option or a guy you cut early in the season. Get a top player is great but getting possibly two top 20 WR's is better in the long run. It's just math.

 

[tlance]

That’s pretty harsh. I agree that Collins is the way to go. But lamb is the safest keep.

Him being the 7th pick and it being likely that other first rounders will be kept the worst case is that he is really pick 19. Best case he is pick 7. Odds are that the pick will retain first round value but lamb is a top 5 pick. So lamb is still value. And it is nice to have an elite player

That is what you guys are missing though.

It is not very likely many other first rounders are being kept.

Cant keep a player more than 1 season. And you have to give up a first to keep a player drafted in the first. Most teams going to have a better value than that if their first round player is even eligible to be kept.

 

[TREFF]

Well here's how I look at it, big picture-

lets assume the draft is over, you kept Nico, and drafted some fairly big stud at #7. The dude who took Lamb, most likely at pick 2 or 3, comes to you and says, ' hey I'll trade you Lamb and the dude I got in the 12th, for Nico, and whomever you got at #7, what would you do?

Obviously it depends on who was the pick at #7 and who the toss in that this dude took. But I can tell you, unless that name at #7 was HUGE, I'm at least entertaining the offer, or countering, I might not accept, but I'm sure I'd listen!

- thus, it's not at all black and white, cut and dry one way or the other