Dodgers trade for HamRam

[tzill]

Based on this logic, the Mets should have accepted me in trade for Beltran last year instead of Wheeler. My MLB track-record is the exact same as his, but I make a LOT less money.

And yet, if the Giants had traded me to the Muts instead of Wheeler, Sabean would have been praised for the trade instead of placing it into the "bad trade" bin that it now resides in.

Arias has no track record to EVER be compared to HanRam. HanRam WAS one of, if not THE best player in the game just a couple years ago. The Fish is an organization that has had some serious turmoil in the time since. IT is not a HUGE stretch to assume HanRam will return to at least a portion of his former self. IT is absolute lunacy to assume Arias will ever sniff that kind of production.

HanRam, over his last 800 ABs (a large sample size) has produced 0.5 WAR. That's a generic bench player. Doesn't matter which one, I picked Arias b/c we know him, as an example. He (or anyone else who is a marginal bench player) is comparable to HanRam EXACTLY BECAUSE that's all HanRam is at this point. This isn't 2010 and that HanRam is GONE. It's a pretty huge stretch to assume that, after 800 ABs of suck, he's going to become a 2.0 WAR guy, much less the 6-7 WAR guy that he was.

Again, it's not about ARIAS, it's about HanRam being no more than a bench player at this point.

 

[calsnowskier]

I knew what you meant, but I think context always needs to be applied to 20/20 hindsight viewings or it isn't a good barometer (if it ever is). The context in this case takes it from being a "bad trade" to "below average trade." I know. Semantics.

I think that you CAN evaluate a trade with 20/20 and rate it accordingly.

And in doing so, RIGHT NOW, it has to be rated as a GREAT trade for the Giants...

The Giants got an MLB OFer who performed quite well.

The Mets got a minor leaguer who has yet to pitch an inning in the majors.

Hands down winner for the Giants RIGHT NOW.

However, all potential gains for the Giants are now reached. The Mets still have ALL potential gains still on the table, so ultimately, they will likely "win" the trade.

If the Giants had made it to the playoffs, however, than it would have been a win/win.

 

[msgkings322]

Capuano gives up 5 runs in 5 innings, 2 more of his on base after he's pulled, 5-4 Cards.

HanRam 1 for 2 with an infield single, run scored

He may be a bench player, but if he had his 2012 stats on the Giants he'd be our HR leader.
His current slash line for this year is .251/.326/.435 with 14 HRs and 49 RBIs. That's a pretty awesome bench if he's on it. It's a pretty nice hitting line for a 3B, with a 2.8 oWAR in 2012

tzill, you can't win em all. You lose this one.

 

[gp956]

Capuano gives up 5 runs in 5 innings, 2 more of his on base after he's pulled, 5-4 Cards.

HanRam 1 for 2 with an infield single, run scored

He may be a bench player, but if he had his 2012 stats on the Giants he'd be our HR leader.
His current slash line for this year is .251/.326/.435 with 14 HRs and 49 RBIs. That's a pretty awesome bench if he's on it. It's a pretty nice hitting line for a 3B, with a 2.8 oWAR in 2012

tzill, you can't win em all. You lose this one.

And really, he will be replacing Dee Gordon who has one career HR and a 63 wRC+. If HanRam was a Giant, he'd be hitting cleanup.

 

[tzill]

You must be working a lot of hours.

Ah, the snark. You're better than that GP. As you know, WAR is generally measured like this:

<0.0 WAR -- should be sent down/released
0.0-2.0 WAR -- bench player
2.0-5.0 WAR -- starter
5.0-8.0 WAR -- All Star
8.0+ -- MVP candidate

HanRam's WAR over the last three years:

2010: 2.6
2011: 0.0
2012: 0.5 (projects to 0.8)
AVERAGE: 1.1

oWAR
2010: 4.6
2011: 1.4
2012: 1.5 (2.5)
AVERAGE: 2.8

dWAR
2010: -1.3
2011: -1.0
2012: -0.9
AVERAGE: -1.1

HanRam is a below average defender. Not terrible, but below average. He's an above average hitter. Overall, he's playing at a bench player level. That's really not in dispute. No hand waving, no snark. Just the numbers.

Unless you feel that WAR over three years isn't a viable analysis. If so, I guess we disagree.

Arias, FWIW, projects to about 0.7 WAR this year. HanRam is a slightly better bench player.

 

[tzill]

Capuano gives up 5 runs in 5 innings, 2 more of his on base after he's pulled, 5-4 Cards.

HanRam 1 for 2 with an infield single, run scored

He may be a bench player, but if he had his 2012 stats on the Giants he'd be our HR leader.
His current slash line for this year is .251/.326/.435 with 14 HRs and 49 RBIs. That's a pretty awesome bench if he's on it. It's a pretty nice hitting line for a 3B, with a 2.8 oWAR in 2012

tzill, you can't win em all. You lose this one.

One sided analysis. You're completely (willfully?) ignoring his dWAR.

 

[tzill]

And really, he will be replacing Dee Gordon who has one career HR and a 63 wRC+. If HanRam was a Giant, he'd be hitting cleanup.

Shifting ground. He's not a Giant (and I'd dispute that claim anyway). Second, he's going to play third and replace Uribe. Your point holds; he's an upgrade and I'm not disputing that.

My point is that the trade is a bad one UNLESS HanRam magically finds his 2009 self. The doyers gave up way too much in terms of salary and talent for a bench level producer.

 

[msgkings322]

One sided analysis. You're completely (willfully?) ignoring his dWAR.

Nah, just clicked on his name from Disney, saw the oWAR figure, and then incorrectly assumed it was for 2012 alone when as you point out it was his 3 yr average.

Still think HanRam batting 5th for LA makes them a scarier team than the one where he's not there. Your mileage obviously varies.

And gp better than snarkiness? Wrong again, tzill!

 

[Stokes1931]

And the good news is that the Dogs lost, 7-4, after their pitching staff was pounded for 18 hits (only 2 XBH).

 

[tzill]

Nah, just clicked on his name from Disney, saw the oWAR figure, and then incorrectly assumed it was for 2012 alone when as you point out it was his 3 yr average.

Still think HanRam batting 5th for LA makes them a scarier team than the one where he's not there. Your mileage obviously varies.

And gp better than snarkiness? Wrong again, tzill!

He upgrades them; we agree there. We could pay Adam LaRoche $15MM a year and trade away Zito (absorbing half his salary) to get an equivalent deal. Would you make that deal? LaRoche upgrades us.

 

[tzill]

And the good news is that the Dogs lost, 7-4, after their pitching staff was pounded for 18 hits (only 2 XBH).

3 up!!

 

[msgkings322]

He upgrades them; we agree there. We could pay Adam LaRoche $15MM a year and trade away Zito (absorbing half his salary) to get an equivalent deal. Would you make that deal? LaRoche upgrades us.

No of course not. We also agreed the deal and money involved made it a dumb one, long term.

But just looking at the 2012 Dodgers, they just got more formidable. Where I think we disagree is simply whether Hanley is a bench player (you) or a solid infield bat (the rest of us).

 

[msgkings322]

3 up!!

And 4 in the loss column!

WOOT

 

[tzill]

No of course not. We also agreed the deal and money involved made it a dumb one, long term.

But just looking at the 2012 Dodgers, they just got more formidable. Where I think we disagree is simply whether Hanley is a bench player (you) or a solid infield bat (the rest of us).

OK, we've narrowed the discussion. I would agree that he's a starter level bat, but he's a below average defender which drags his overall game down into backup status.

I think everyone here is remembering 2009 HanRam and is fairly unaware of how below average he's been the last 2 years.

 

[msgkings322]

OK, we've narrowed the discussion. I would agree that he's a starter level bat, but he's a below average defender which drags his overall game down into backup status.

I think everyone here is remembering 2009 HanRam and is fairly unaware of how below average he's been the last 2 years.

Can't speak for everyone but I'm not expecting 2009 HanRam or anything close to it. I'm expecting a slight pickup on his 2012 line due to new surroundings. And that = a HUGE upgrade for LA, circa 2012. Simply put the current LA team we have to face is now a better team.

Let's take 2 from those fuckers this weekend!

 

[gp956]

Ah, the snark. You're better than that GP. As you know, WAR is generally measured like this:

<0.0 WAR -- should be sent down/released
0.0-2.0 WAR -- bench player
2.0-5.0 WAR -- starter
5.0-8.0 WAR -- All Star
8.0+ -- MVP candidate

HanRam's WAR over the last three years:

2010: 2.6
2011: 0.0
2012: 0.5 (projects to 0.8)
AVERAGE: 1.1

oWAR
2010: 4.6
2011: 1.4
2012: 1.5 (2.5)
AVERAGE: 2.8

dWAR
2010: -1.3
2011: -1.0
2012: -0.9
AVERAGE: -1.1

HanRam is a below average defender. Not terrible, but below average. He's an above average hitter. Overall, he's playing at a bench player level. That's really not in dispute. No hand waving, no snark. Just the numbers.

Unless you feel that WAR over three years isn't a viable analysis. If so, I guess we disagree.

Arias, FWIW, projects to about 0.7 WAR this year. HanRam is a slightly better bench player.

LOL. Please stop. WAR is a toy stat under the best circumstances, using BB-Ref's, which relies on range factor as its defensive metric, is a mistake. It will lead you to make ridiculous comparisons.

 

[SFAnthem]

That "triple" should have been caught. John Jay fielded that like he was on roller skates. Horrible defense.

Supposedly he jogged it on that "hit" until it fell. Let's see how that plays out with his new teammates.

 

[SFAnthem]

I hope they do respond, but not sure what can be done? Do we give up on Belt to upgrade 3B or 1B? Who else is available to do either? Do we upgrade SS or CF? Who's out there?

And what about this newly real situation is a surprise? Didn't we all know they'd be getting a bat and a starting pitcher?

I think the surprise is mostly based on Hanley Ramirez being available. I'd figure the Marlins would be one of the teams in the mix...didn't they trade for Carlos Lee? lol

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Don't miss out on all their losing with all this talk of war. 3 games back bitches!

 

[SFAnthem]

I didn't say anything about conclusive, that's to be found out at season's end. I recognized them as one of this year's surprise teams early, and they are. And they will be until season's end. I don't get a medal or anything, I just get to smugly say I was right.



And for all tzill's hand waving about HanRam, that's a real upgrade to their worst position, just like the White Sox did with Youkilis. Yes he's way too expensive, but for the present day this helps their record. And for us in 2012, we have to deal with it.

For us it comes down to Timmy being a .500 pitcher and Belt contributing. We get those two things, we win the West even when LA gets a starter.

Thats my point about stating this debate being inconclusive. You're saying they will be there in the end. That has yet to be determined. (but if the season ended today ..then you'd be totally correct)

The biggest surprise about them was how many wins they racked up early. They did fade. What did that blistering start earn them? At this point, second place.

We evaluate and re-evaluate the teams all throughout the season. Some "surprise" teams reveal themselves early and some put together win streaks during the season, like A's currently or the Rockies and D-backs during August/September.