Dodgers trade for HamRam

[gp956]

With the Dodgers opening day roster, I never shouted down someone stating they had an outside shot at the Division, and I think you're mistaking reasoned responses for getting shouted down on the internet. In my opinion, the Dodgers had last year's best young starting pitcher and position player in all of baseball, and they made improvements to a weak rotation. The only team that I thought had no chance whatsoever at the NL West Title was San Diego. I'm more surprised by the Rockies not even having a go at one of the wild cards than I am about the Dodgers being virtually assured a spot in the playoffs, at this point in the season.

Totally agree on that. Allthough the most surprising team of the year is the A's. I thought Beane had assembled a total joke of a team. I guess that guy really is a genius.

 

[Heathbar012]

Totally agree on that. Allthough the most surprising team of the year is the A's. I thought Beane had assembled a total joke of a team. I guess that guy really is a genius.

Art Howe or Philip Seymour Hoffman hate his guts, so he can't be that great.

 

[gp956]

I agree that it could be a disaster for them .... but from another perspective it has to be a great move for a doyer fan. Uribe just wasn't providing anything. HamRam can't produce any less. I also think that a change in scenery and not competing with Reyes may start to turn him back around ..... but as Tzill said .... we shall see .... I still remember the year that the Braves picked up Fred McGriff .... don't want to see anything like that ever again ....
I'd personally love to see us fix our 1B abyss ..... between Huff and Belt it's been less than a spectacular offensive showcase

And got him for nothing, IIRC. Giants 1993 team - best team I ever saw. and didn't make the playoffs largely because the Pads gave away McGriff.

 

[gp956]

Art Howe or Philip Seymour Hoffman hate his guts, so he can't be that great.

Poor Art Howe, they really did make him look like a total ass and an idiot.

 

[msgkings322]

They still were until acquiring Hanley. We've been over this several times. They've been fading hardcore since their blazing start. I know Kemp was injured for awhile, but they don't have any depth (which was not hard to see). That team doesn't have a lot of talent to speak of on that roster. Unfortunately, their new Ownership group is not afraid of spending to go get it.

I don't think any of my predictions on the Dodgers have been wrong either.....I just didn't know they'd pick up a guy like Hanley Ramirez.....but I never made a prediction on that one way or the other. I just went off of what I saw on their opening day roster.....and I'm still not impressed with that.

But they are more than just the 2 hitters and Kershaw. Capuano for example. He's having a great year. Could that be predicted with his track record? Nope, but that's how unexpected teams rise up. Guys have career years, rookies contribute, etc.

Anyway like gp says below, Belt (and Timmy) is key. If they do what they need to, we got this.

 

[msgkings322]

Poor Art Howe, they really did make him look like a total ass and an idiot.

That was the main flaw of the movie IMO, too hard on him. But they needed a 'villain'.

 

[msgkings322]

Totally agree on that. Allthough the most surprising team of the year is the A's. I thought Beane had assembled a total joke of a team. I guess that guy really is a genius.

The A's and White Sox are both big surprises to me. A's always seem to find good young pitching and ride them for 3-4 years before dealing it away.

 

[filosofy29]

But they are more than just the 2 hitters and Kershaw. Capuano for example. He's having a great year. Could that be predicted with his track record? Nope, but that's how unexpected teams rise up. Guys have career years, rookies contribute, etc.

Anyway like gp says below, Belt (and Timmy) is key. If they do what they need to, we got this.

True, but I still believe (which we'll never know now) that they would have been out of the race by the end of August/early September had they kept this same team (or even added a guy like Carlos Lee and a 4th starter). Of course if they get Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Dempster they're going to be a legit team. If after the Dodgers torrid start 16-6 (or something like that), somebody also told me they'd get HanRam and Dempster at the trade deadline, I would have definitely thought "oh shit".

Agreed. Unfortunately, I see Timmy coming out of his funk (consistently) at a much better chance than poor Belt. He drew a great walk last night in the 9th, but he's still missing the ball on his swings by multiple inches and his body language still looks lost to me. Hopefully I'm dead wrong and he breaks out today though.

 

[calsnowskier]

That was the main flaw of the movie IMO, too hard on him. But they needed a 'villain'.

I thought it was funny how Giambi and Pena were traded on the same day just to show Howe up in the movie.

When they do something like that in a movie, it really makes the rest of the "history" they are trying to portray less believable...

 

[msgkings322]

True, but I still believe (which we'll never know now) that they would have been out of the race by the end of August/early September had they kept this same team (or even added a guy like Carlos Lee and a 4th starter). Of course if they get Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Dempster they're going to be a legit team. If after the Dodgers torrid start 16-6 (or something like that), somebody also told me they'd get HanRam and Dempster at the trade deadline, I would have definitely thought "oh shit".

Agreed. Unfortunately, I see Timmy coming out of his funk (consistently) at a much better chance than poor Belt. He drew a great walk last night in the 9th, but he's still missing the ball on his swings by multiple inches and his body language still looks lost to me. Hopefully I'm dead wrong and he breaks out today though.

Agree if they didn't upgrade they'd fade. But we knew they would being in the hunt with new, rich, ready to show the world owners.

I was pretty impressed with how they stayed in it after losing Kemp and Ethier. Yes they faded some but not enough to quit. And now those guys are back and they are bringing in reinforcements. They did it with pitching.

It's actually kind of cool, when was the last time the rivalry mattered, with both teams contending?

 

[the_broom]

True, but I still believe (which we'll never know now) that they would have been out of the race by the end of August/early September had they kept this same team (or even added a guy like Carlos Lee and a 4th starter). Of course if they get Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Dempster they're going to be a legit team. If after the Dodgers torrid start 16-6 (or something like that), somebody also told me they'd get HanRam and Dempster at the trade deadline, I would have definitely thought "oh shit".

Agreed. Unfortunately, I see Timmy coming out of his funk (consistently) at a much better chance than poor Belt. He drew a great walk last night in the 9th, but he's still missing the ball on his swings by multiple inches and his body language still looks lost to me. Hopefully I'm dead wrong and he breaks out today though.

Belt went on record as saying that people are reading too much into his body language...that good or bad he walks/looks the same. IDK...could be spin control but the guy always seems to be kind of reserved on the field.

 

[gp956]

That was the main flaw of the movie IMO, too hard on him. But they needed a 'villain'.

Yeah, since the movie is about a new order replacing a flawed, but established, one, you have to use cardboard cutouts representing the old order so that the audience can unambiguously empathize with the main characters. Makes them feel smart. You know how it works.

Meanwhile....the dodgers might still add Victorino, or Pense. Ugh.

 

[ColinCoby]

How will The Giants ownership respond? That's the key question.

Hanley's contract might hurt in the future, but imagine if Hanley replaced Belt in our lineup (with Panda moving to 1st). That's essentially what the Doyers have done with Hanley replacing Uribe. Big upgrade.

My 1st reaction was: at least they didn't get a starter. But it appears the Doyers aren't done. As gp said, this shit did indeed just get real.

 

[tzill]

Not for this season. I said his celing was a #3 starter (in my humble opinion and even then, I'm talking out of my ass), not currently. It wouldn't change what he's offered them so far this year. If/when Lilly comes back, I'm sure he can duplicate what Eovaldi gave them (1-6, 4.15era). If HanRam can hit decently well there, I think they're a lot closer to us than you're giving them credit for. Los Angeles should be an easier place to hit Home Runs than Florida's new park. Dempster invoked his no trade to Atlanta because he prefers Los Angeles.....so there's that.

I thought the Dodgers were through and I think they would be had they sat idly by (just not enought overall talent on their roster). I never thought they'd get a player of Hanley's caliber though either. I thought it would be something like Carlos Lee and a 4th starter. Time will tell, but the Dodgers ownership just made the rest of the NL West clear of their intentions to spend money.

Check his peripherals, he's a #3 this season (SSS notwithstanding). There's no guarantee that Lilly's coming back, and even if he does, no guarantee that he'll be an effective, middle of the rotation pitcher (which Eovaldi currently is).

Likewise, that's a huge "if" regarding HanRam. He's a headcase. He hasn't been good in two years. He's not a good third baseman. They're committed to Gordon at SS. He's making all-star money and playing below league average. He's on pace for about 0.7 WAR this year, or about $3MM in production (i.e. a reserve). He's getting $15MM. Sure, the doyers have cash, but aren't you glad they're wasting it on a guy who underproduces? I sure am -- it's money they can't use elsewhere. Maybe he acclimates to his new team and really likes it and returns to AS form, but that ain't he way to bet. And it certainly isn't the way to bet with $15MM a year.

Moreover, Kershaw isn't the CY Kershaw we've all come to know and fear. Babs is very incosistent. Capuano is a career 100 ERA+ pitcher who is pitching at a 136 clip right now; it wouldn't be out of the question for him to regress to his career mean. Harang is a career 101 ERA+ guy who is pitching at 110 right now -- a good candidate for regression as well.

Simply put, IF Kemp and Ethier continue to rake, and IF HanRam turns it around and IF two average pitchers continue to have career years and IF they continue to be a .500 road team....THEN they'll contend for the division.

But, as the man says, that is NOT the way to bet.

 

[msgkings322]

How will The Giants ownership respond? That's the key question.

Hanley's contract might hurt in the future, but imagine if Hanley replaced Belt in our lineup (with Panda moving to 1st). That's essentially what the Doyers have done with Hanley replacing Uribe. Big upgrade.

My 1st reaction was: at least they didn't get a starter. But it appears the Doyers aren't done. As gp said, this shit did indeed just get real.

I hope they do respond, but not sure what can be done? Do we give up on Belt to upgrade 3B or 1B? Who else is available to do either? Do we upgrade SS or CF? Who's out there?

And what about this newly real situation is a surprise? Didn't we all know they'd be getting a bat and a starting pitcher?

 

[ColinCoby]

Dodgers' third basemen this season (MLB rank)
BA: .249 (20th)
OPS: .679 (23rd)
HR: 4 (28th)

Dodgers' shortstops this season (MLB rank)
BA: .232 (23rd)
OPS: .604 (25th)
HR: 4 (T-18th)

 

[ColinCoby]

I hope they do respond, but not sure what can be done? Do we give up on Belt to upgrade 3B or 1B? Who else is available to do either? Do we upgrade SS or CF? Who's out there?

And what about this newly real situation is a surprise? Didn't we all know they'd be getting a bat and a starting pitcher?

I didn't think they'd make significant upgrades to the starting rotation AND the everyday lineup. But give the new Doyers' owners credit: they're willing to take on salary in an effort to get to the playoffs.

 

[filosofy29]

Check his peripherals, he's a #3 this season (SSS notwithstanding). There's no guarantee that Lilly's coming back, and even if he does, no guarantee that he'll be an effective, middle of the rotation pitcher (which Eovaldi currently is).

Likewise, that's a huge "if" regarding HanRam. He's a headcase. He hasn't been good in two years. He's not a good third baseman. They're committed to Gordon at SS. He's making all-star money and playing below league average. He's on pace for about 0.7 WAR this year, or about $3MM in production (i.e. a reserve). He's getting $15MM. Sure, the doyers have cash, but aren't you glad they're wasting it on a guy who underproduces? I sure am -- it's money they can't use elsewhere. Maybe he acclimates to his new team and really likes it and returns to AS form, but that ain't he way to bet. And it certainly isn't the way to bet with $15MM a year.

Moreover, Kershaw isn't the CY Kershaw we've all come to know and fear. Babs is very incosistent. Capuano is a career 100 ERA+ pitcher who is pitching at a 136 clip right now; it wouldn't be out of the question for him to regress to his career mean. Harang is a career 101 ERA+ guy who is pitching at 110 right now -- a good candidate for regression as well.

Simply put, IF Kemp and Ethier continue to rake, and IF HanRam turns it around and IF two average pitchers continue to have career years and IF they continue to be a .500 road team....THEN they'll contend for the division.

But, as the man says, that is NOT the way to bet.

I guess I'm just confused as to how you're classifying pitchers. I would have thought Timmy was rank as a #5 and Eovaldi was a #4 (based on numbers). Supposedly, Lilly is slated back the 2nd week of August, although there obviously could be setbacks and they'll also have to replace about 3-4 starts of Eovaldi's in between the time Lilly returns.

A "huge if" is him hitting decently well? Granted, I'll give you my language was very vague, but if even if he keeps his .749OPS, than that's .070 higher than what they've gotten there this season. If he hits roughly .270 and can maintain his current .750 OPS with 10 homers (average per games played) and can provide some speed on the bases, that will smoke everything every Dodger 3rd baseman has done this season.....in less than half a season. Is it an "if", definitely, but I don't think that's a "huge if". As for the money relgated to SS, that all depends on how the Dodgers ownership spends money from now on. If they still do operate under an internal budget, than I do agree with you whole-heartedly. If they start getting up into Angels territory (or worse yet Red Sox or Yanks territory), than they probably won't have too much of a problem dealing with the contract.

Can't disagree on Capuano and Harangatang, but if we're expecting them to regress, we'd have to expect Zito to regress as well right? Timmy is looking like the huge wild card in this equation. Wouldn't we also have to assume Kershaw will get better too? (I'm really asking, these aren't hypotheticals)

Kemp and Ethier will still have to play well, but they're good players (or at least Ethier is when Kemp is in the lineup) and they're getting some reinforcements with HanRam coming in (even if he stays where he is he's better than what they've had).

I definitely wouldn't bet on the Doggies, I'm just thinking they got a lot tougher. As Wesley Snipes said, "always bet on (Orange and) Black" ("orange and" was implied).

 

[tzill]

I guess I'm just confused as to how you're classifying pitchers. I would have thought Timmy was rank as a #5 and Eovaldi was a #4 (based on numbers). Supposedly, Lilly is slated back the 2nd week of August, although there obviously could be setbacks and they'll also have to replace about 3-4 starts of Eovaldi's in between the time Lilly returns.

A "huge if" is him hitting decently well? Granted, I'll give you my language was very vague, but if even if he keeps his .749OPS, than that's .070 higher than what they've gotten there this season. If he hits roughly .270 and can maintain his current .750 OPS with 10 homers (average per games played) and can provide some speed on the bases, that will smoke everything every Dodger 3rd baseman has done this season.....in less than half a season. Is it an "if", definitely, but I don't think that's a "huge if". As for the money relgated to SS, that all depends on how the Dodgers ownership spends money from now on. If they still do operate under an internal budget, than I do agree with you whole-heartedly. If they start getting up into Angels territory (or worse yet Red Sox or Yanks territory), than they probably won't have too much of a problem dealing with the contract.

Can't disagree on Capuano and Harangatang, but if we're expecting them to regress, we'd have to expect Zito to regress as well right? Timmy is looking like the huge wild card in this equation. Wouldn't we also have to assume Kershaw will get better too? (I'm really asking, these aren't hypotheticals)

Kemp and Ethier will still have to play well, but they're good players (or at least Ethier is when Kemp is in the lineup) and they're getting some reinforcements with HanRam coming in (even if he stays where he is he's better than what they've had).

I definitely wouldn't bet on the Doggies, I'm just thinking they got a lot tougher. As Wesley Snipes said, "always bet on (Orange and) Black" ("orange and" was implied).

#5 pitchers never have more than 20 or so starts in a year...typically, they bounce up and down from AAA...Timmy is a #4. Any pitcher who qualifies for the ERA title (one IP for every game the team has played) is at worst a #4.

Eovaldi's peripherals have him as a #3 (i.e. ranked between 32 and 48 in the NL).

Why would you assume HanRam is going to hit .270? Over his last 800 ABs he's been under .250....put another way, Crawford is as likely to hit .270.

And yes, I think you can expect Kershaw and Timmy to regress to their norms (today notwithstanding).

 

[tzill]

From Dave Cameron at Fangraphs:

What the Marlins have done in the past three days is trade two months of a pitcher they probably weren’t going to re-sign, a year and a half of an average second baseman, and an overpaid underachiever who most teams wouldn’t have even claimed on waivers. As Knobler notes, the Marlins were willing to pick up half of Ramirez’s salary to trade him to Oakland, and Billy Beane was hesitant to even pull the trigger at that price. This wasn’t so much a fire sale as it was an inventory closeout of unwanted goods.