David Shaw: CFP should look at full schedules

[outofyourmind]

And Missouri is going to win 10 games with their schedule?

Their fans are pumped.

@black francis
@Good_Code
@SteelersPride
@Mr_Rogers

 

[Codaxx]

Except that that doesn't work. To understand why, you have to understand how computer rating function.

A computer rating system is going to use some criterion (usually game scores) to determine how much better the winning team is than the losing team, and then apply that uniformly across the dataset of games played. But the choice of how the formula is constructed is entirely arbitrary. It can reward a team for high offensive output, great defense, etc. So how can you use that formula to fairly rate a team that is excellent due to defense as compared to one that excels because of offense?

The point is that every team is different in terms of what makes them good and where their weaknesses lie. And as such, every season is going to be different.

You can use any model you like, I used Colley because it’s readily available and printed. The point being you can use any criteria you like and get as complicated as you like, but print it and people will adjust. I prefer having the results fit the criteria, not the changing the criteria to fit the results

 

[7Samurai13]

Hell no, nor did I ever argue that. I merely stated Fresno isn’t winning 10 games with Missouri’s schedule.

Probably not, but there are a lot of teams that can go out there and lose to every decent team they played like Missouri did.

 

[rmilia1]

Conference records are always going to equal out to .500. You are claiming the 6 or 7 extra losses for the entire conference is what gives teams an advantage. And those are only the POSSIBLE losses, which are constantly ruined because the bottom teams in all conferences are constantly doing 2 things - losing conference games and losing OOC games.

There is no actual effect, it's just ignorant people who can't understand the scope and what actually goes on and instead harps on some stupid little "fact" as if it's the end all be all.

I've done the math multiple times and even in the BEST and most extreme possible cases it's less than 4% of the total games for the entire conference.

But you stupid fucks can't get over 1 little detail to understand the actual math behind it - because you don't want to. You're a bunch of fucking losers looking for excuses. Just like your "CFP history". What about it? Multiple teams have made it to the playoffs on a 9 game conference schedule. That they don't win the games is an entirely different topic.

No I'm claiming a team that goes 5-7 in a 9 game league will likely instead go 6-6 in 8 game league or a 8-4 , just outside the top 25 team in a 9 game league will instead be q 9-3 top 25 team in a 8 game league .

In the 4 year of the playoff there have been 10 opportunities for a 8 game league to send a team to the playoff. They've done so 11 times. Conversely theres been 10 times a 9 team league could send a team yet they've only done so 5 times .

That's just the reality

 

[crimsontater]

does shaw ever stop whining! sheesh, what a crybaby! i used to have a lot of respect for him, not now

 

[socaljim242]

Four years before that mine started five black players and beat the almighty, all white Kentucky Wildcats in hoops.

Pat Riley was one of those white players.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Probably not, but there are a lot of teams that can go out there and lose to every decent team they played like Missouri did.

Will never argue that. My team does that a lot.

 

[nddulac]

You can use any model you like, I used Colley because it’s readily available and printed. The point being you can use any criteria you like and get as complicated as you like, but print it and people will adjust. I prefer having the results fit the criteria, not the changing the criteria to fit the results

I don't disagree with you. You hate to have a moving target. And you hate to have a system where you choose the criteria based on a desired outcome (How can we make Alabama look good this year?) That would definitely suck.

And a very real example of that was the BCS - which adjusted their formula every year so that the computers would better match the polls. That was a freaking disaster, in my opinion.

So I get what you are saying and basically agree. I'm just pointing out the obvious that football teams are very complex systems. And trying to rate them with a single numerical index that is calculated the same way for every team is never going to be a fair process, and my not tell you who the "best" team really is.

 

[Deep Creek]

Pat Riley was one of those white players.

Yes he was.

 

[4down20]

You could have used real world examples on any of the others, but none would have made your point.

An no chance Fresno State has 10 wins with mizzou
‘s schedule. LOL at Colorado State

So now your complaining about the example choice?

Petty bitch.

 

[4down20]

Bama doesn't play home & aways with those teams and how many P5 teams are in the same conference as Colorado St. and Fresno St.? It's not like those teams run a gauntlet every year.

Take it up with the polls.

 

[4down20]

LOL. Hey black guys please don't show up for the official team photo. Do the words fully integrate mean anything to you? Having some guy on the roster but never playing them isn't fully integrated. If you cant tell the difference between these two teams then you're blind as well as stupid. USC had a black QB and a black assistant coach.

If you really think a football game against USC changed Alabama football, then have it.




Dumbass.

 

[4down20]

Oddly enough, so have I. And, I can do simple math. For example ...

If x is the average of a set numbers which includes B, and A > B, then replacing B with A in the set of numbers will increase the value of X.

Simple is a pretty good description of your rankings.

Good thing most people who engineer and design things use higher levels of math, so your ass doesn't fall through the golden gate bridge.

 

[4down20]

No I'm claiming a team that goes 5-7 in a 9 game league will likely instead go 6-6 in 8 game league or a 8-4 , just outside the top 25 team in a 9 game league will instead be q 9-3 top 25 team in a 8 game league .

In the 4 year of the playoff there have been 10 opportunities for a 8 game league to send a team to the playoff. They've done so 11 times. Conversely theres been 10 times a 9 team league could send a team yet they've only done so 5 times .

That's just the reality

It's false and it's not the reality.

And maybe they other teams don't get there or win as much because they aren't as good? Nah, can't be something like that. It's been 4 years now, it's obvious that Alabama wins so much because of the schedule, not because they are a good fucking team. And Ohio St won that year because of 8 game conference schedule, not because they were good. Clemson? Well that's an ACC team, they must be getting by because of 8 game conference schedules.

If you believe that shit, you're fucking retarded.

 

[4down20]

Yeah. Only everyone involved said it was so. It's only in books written by people from both schools. But hey you know more. LOL

From SEC country web site. I guess they are biased too. LOL

Cunningham became the unlikely star of an all-black backfield against all-white Alabama that night in Birmingham when he rumbled for 135 yards and 2 touchdowns on 12 carries in a 42-21 rout of the Crimson Tide. So stunning was that result, it has long been credited with hastening the full integration of Southeastern Conference football.

The next season, Alabama introduced its first black player, John Mitchell, who went on to become the school’s first black assistant coach and later the SEC’s first black coordinator.
Gov. George Wallace infamously vowed “segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever” in his inaugural address in 1963, then stood at the entrance of the University of Alabama later that year to block the enrollment of black students. So what is the path to progress in a climate like that? Threaten the future of a beloved football dynasty.

Bryant flew to L.A. to ask Trojans coach John McKay if he’d bring his fully integrated team to Legion Field, likely knowing full well what would happen.

“He had to show the powers that be that black and white players could play together and play at a high level together,” Cunningham said. “His belief as a football coach was to have the best talent so he could have the best team, and he knew he needed African-American players to be part of that in order to keep moving forward.”

Yeah, and Paul Revere warned about the British right? It's in all the history books.

And yet Pat Dye, an assistant coach at the time talks specifically about trying to recruit black players before that game ever happened.

Too easy to say Bear Bryant was too slow to integrate Alabama football (Kevin Scarbinsky)


Pat Dye worked on Bryant's Alabama staff from 1965-73. He helped land Wilbur Jackson, the first black football player to sign with Alabama. But Jackson wasn't the first black player Alabama recruited.


"We tried to recruit a number of black kids that we didn't get," Dye said.

One of them was Bo Matthews, an All-State fullback from Huntsville's Butler High School. Alabama thought it would sign Matthews, and he went to Memphis the week the Crimson Tide played Colorado in the 1969 Liberty Bowl. But after spending time with a number of Colorado's black players, Matthews signed with the Buffaloes. He became an All-American there and the No. 2 pick in the 1974 NFL draft.

Another recruit that got away was Condredge Holloway, a three-sport star from Huntsville's Lee High School.


"We recruited Condredge Holloway as hard as we could recruit him," Dye said.

But one page in the history book had yet to turn. There still hadn't been a starting black quarterback in the SEC. Holloway would be the first but at Tennessee. As Holloway told AL.com's Mark McCarter in 2011, Bryant had told him that Alabama wasn't ready for a black quarterback and wanted him to play another position.

"I respect Bear Bryant for telling me the truth," Holloway said.

The truth is, Dye said, Alabama's early attempts to recruit black football players were hurt by the state's history and by Wallace's stand.


You read the version you have because it makes people like you feel good, not because it's actually true. And it kind of sucks that fans like you do this like this as it takes my personal enjoyment out of it. Because while it's ignorant to suggest that is what lead to Alabama integrating, it is satisfying for other reasons.

 

[rmilia1]

It's false and it's not the reality.

And maybe they other teams don't get there or win as much because they aren't as good? Nah, can't be something like that. It's been 4 years now, it's obvious that Alabama wins so much because of the schedule, not because they are a good fucking team. And Ohio St won that year because of 8 game conference schedule, not because they were good. Clemson? Well that's an ACC team, they must be getting by because of 8 game conference schedules.

If you believe that shit, you're fucking retarded.

No one is saying teams WIN because of an 8 team league but they certainly get more chances to compete for a title because of one . I mean jesus quit being so damn sensitive. I havent besmirched your sacred Tide.

 

[SteelersPride]

Their fans are pumped.

@black francis
@Good_Code
@SteelersPride
@Mr_Rogers

im fn pumped

 

[socaljim242]

Yeah, and Paul Revere warned about the British right? It's in all the history books.

And yet Pat Dye, an assistant coach at the time talks specifically about trying to recruit black players before that game ever happened.

Too easy to say Bear Bryant was too slow to integrate Alabama football (Kevin Scarbinsky)


Pat Dye worked on Bryant's Alabama staff from 1965-73. He helped land Wilbur Jackson, the first black football player to sign with Alabama. But Jackson wasn't the first black player Alabama recruited.


"We tried to recruit a number of black kids that we didn't get," Dye said.

One of them was Bo Matthews, an All-State fullback from Huntsville's Butler High School. Alabama thought it would sign Matthews, and he went to Memphis the week the Crimson Tide played Colorado in the 1969 Liberty Bowl. But after spending time with a number of Colorado's black players, Matthews signed with the Buffaloes. He became an All-American there and the No. 2 pick in the 1974 NFL draft.

Another recruit that got away was Condredge Holloway, a three-sport star from Huntsville's Lee High School.


"We recruited Condredge Holloway as hard as we could recruit him," Dye said.

But one page in the history book had yet to turn. There still hadn't been a starting black quarterback in the SEC. Holloway would be the first but at Tennessee. As Holloway told AL.com's Mark McCarter in 2011, Bryant had told him that Alabama wasn't ready for a black quarterback and wanted him to play another position.

"I respect Bear Bryant for telling me the truth," Holloway said.

The truth is, Dye said, Alabama's early attempts to recruit black football players were hurt by the state's history and by Wallace's stand.


You read the version you have because it makes people like you feel good, not because it's actually true. And it kind of sucks that fans like you do this like this as it takes my personal enjoyment out of it. Because while it's ignorant to suggest that is what lead to Alabama integrating, it is satisfying for other reasons.

Yes the coaches wanted black players it was the fans the alumni and people in Alabama they had to convince. It wasn't till they lost to USC did they get the go ahead. Thats what Coach Bryant wanted when he scheduled the game.

 

[Codaxx]

I don't disagree with you. You hate to have a moving target. And you hate to have a system where you choose the criteria based on a desired outcome (How can we make Alabama look good this year?) That would definitely suck.

And a very real example of that was the BCS - which adjusted their formula every year so that the computers would better match the polls. That was a freaking disaster, in my opinion.

So I get what you are saying and basically agree. I'm just pointing out the obvious that football teams are very complex systems. And trying to rate them with a single numerical index that is calculated the same way for every team is never going to be a fair process, and my not tell you who the "best" team really is.

Agreed, though I am more about seeing good game than “best team”. Also why I prefer a larger playoff. The arguments matter less as the sample size gets larger and hopefully I get a few extra solid games

 

[4down20]

No one is saying teams WIN because of an 8 team league but they certainly get more chances to compete for a title because of one . I mean jesus quit being so damn sensitive. I havent besmirched your sacred Tide.

If this was abotu Alabama, I'd just point out that Saban wants to play a 9 game conference schedule and only wants P5 teams to play P5 teams completely, and then I'd post national championship pictures.

So you can forget that copout.

And no, they get more chances to compete because they are better. Same reason they win more.