Cards likely to finish 12-4 and win NFC West

[flyerhawk]

The only thing about Arizona that is concerning is their reliance on turnovers. There has long been a school of thought, spearheaded by football outsiders, that forced TO's isn't exactly the most repeatable skill- in otherwords, you need to be in the right place at the right time- and maybe face a really shitty team along the way for giggles. Ask the top two TO snatchers last year in KC and SEA where the TO glut went? Did they both magically get worse in that department? Well, that's up for you to decide.

This is very true.

Seattle has actually forced a lot of fumbles this year. But their recovery rate is pretty poor. Their interceptions are way down as well as teams are pretty much staying away from Sherman and Maxwell has missed a bunch of games. That has meant guys like Therold Simon and Marcus Burnley have been the guys with the chances to pick the ball off and dropped a bunch of them.

 

[DutchBird]

This is very true.

Seattle has actually forced a lot of fumbles this year. But their recovery rate is pretty poor. Their interceptions are way down as well as teams are pretty much staying away from Sherman and Maxwell has missed a bunch of games. That has meant guys like Therold Simon and Marcus Burnley have been the guys with the chances to pick the ball off and dropped a bunch of them.

And even then....

It is telling that the longest continuous streak of games in the whole of the NFL with a turnover in the teams favour is 21 for the Eagles (and it was already when it was at just 16 or so). And just looking at the last two games, that hung by a thread, and it would have been snapped against Arizona if not for a superb individual play by Nate Allen...

Likewise, there is always the luck of the bounce... IIRC the last season of Andy, it seemed that every fumble or tip by an Eagles player bounced straight into the hands of an opponent, and when an opponent tipped a pass or fumbled, it bounces straight into the hands of a fellow player or OOB, more often than not also gaining yards in the process. No matter if it was like one opponent, and 6 Eagles players around, and the bounce needed to be 'magic bullet style'...

So yeah, relying on turnovers to bail out your defense is not a good thing...

 

[DutchBird]

Its funny that someone is saying that az defense is much better than seattle or sf, if you go by the stats they are all almost identical with te exception of az pass defense being dead last, total yds has SF #2 SEA #4 and AZ #11, pass SF #3 SEA #6 AZ #32, rush SF #5 SEA #4 az #3, and pts per game SF 22, SEA 21 AZ 19. the only difference is az has had a few more bounces go their way during their games than seattle or sf has. these three teams are almost identical, they rely on defense and don't light anyone up on offense.

who said something about the only reason az pass defense is last is because they played Denver in Denver LMFAO!!!!! SF played them in Denver too and they are still ranked #3 against the pass and got lit up.

Much better statistics - in general - are also provided by 'yards per play' and 'points per play' given up by the defenses. Going by yardage is a rather dubious metric... e.g. if you have a fast scoring offense, your defense will be on the field a lot. Likewise, if you have quickly put a game away, the defense might play of a bit.

I know everybody talked last year about the Eagles defense being so bad - purely based on the total yards given up, completely ignoring the amount of time they spent on the field because of the offense being so good (and scoring quickly). It simply did not match the eye-ball test. When looking at yards per play / yards per point, they were middle of the pack (IIRC somewhere 15-20 range) which was about right.

When looking at those metrics, YardsPerPlay, the AZ defense ranks #20, where Seattle and SF rank #5 and #6 (which incidentally points to their offense being the biggest problems on those teams, which also seems right by the eye test).

 

[SonnyCID]

OP, do you still film political rants from your toilet, like you used to link on the ESPN boards?

Those were epic.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Spurs are one of the most efficient offensive teams you'll ever see. Arizona is nothing like the Spurs.

The numbers I had were before the Cowboys game so they'll probably be a little better. They still look like a 10-12 win team that will get bounced in their first playoff game.

You're right. They're not a bunch of aging Europeans who flop, dive and whine about calls all the time.

 

[BobGnarly]

You're right. They're not a bunch of aging Europeans who flop, dive and whine about calls all the time.

See: Bruce Arians