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cincygrad

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Unfortunately, we're kind of stuck..... If we don't franchise AJ, we would have to potentially overpay Sanu and Jones simply to have any of our veterans back. As it stands now, it's hard to imagine us getting all three locked up next offseason.

It will be very interesting to see what happens this offseason if we have a disappointing season. Theoretically (and it is an extreme longshot), we could completely blow the thing up..... New coaches, new quarterback, new tackles and new receivers.

If we have another 10-6 and first round playoff loss, what do you do? Try to re-sign 80% of the guys and hope for the best again?
 

cincygrad

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Unfortunately, we're kind of stuck..... If we don't franchise AJ, we would have to potentially overpay Sanu and Jones simply to have any of our veterans back. As it stands now, it's hard to imagine us getting all three locked up next offseason.

It will be very interesting to see what happens this offseason if we have a disappointing season. Theoretically (and it is an extreme longshot), we could completely blow the thing up..... New coaches, new quarterback, new tackles and new receivers.

If we have another 10-6 and first round playoff loss, what do you do? Try to re-sign 80% of the guys and hope for the best again?

jolly-fool.jpg
 

cincygrad

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Lewis.jpg
 

Kingspoint

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Green is our #1 WR next season, as he gets franchise-tagged.
 

Kingspoint

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From Rotoworld w/ Rotoworld comments:

CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora said contract-year WR A.J. Green is looking to beat Julio Jones' five-year, $71.25 million deal.

La Canfora is not sure the Bengals are willing to go that high, meaning Green is unlikely to get a deal before the season. Green could be headed for the franchise tag next offseason.


Source: Jason La Canfora on Twitter
 

Kingspoint

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Fisher will not be good enough to start on the O-Line next season. Ogbuehi won't be good enough until 2017, at the earliest.

Having Green with Dalton and McCarron is simply a waste of resources and will continue the mediocrity that has been the Bengals for the last 26 years.

Duke Tobin is more than capable of finding a replacement for Green in next year's draft.
 

CrashDavisSports

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Green is our #1 WR next season, as he gets franchise-tagged.

What will that franchise tag cost the team? I mean wouldn't it be cheaper to just sign him to a long term contract before the season hits? I mean I know that long term means overall more money and more years, but if we are looking to save money, wouldn't a long term contract afford us that opportunity? Just thoughts.
 

CrashDavisSports

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I mean, I can't see contracts going down for these players as the cap rises. I mean hell, look at the deal the Bills just gave Dareus! 7 years / 108 million with 60 million guaranteed? Gulp.

Now looking at AJ Green versus Dareus for the Bills....Green has been to 4 pro bowls, had over a 1000 yards receiving every single season and that includes his limited games last year, along with forcing the defense to play double teams his way, and making clutch catches to keep chains moving.

Dareus is pretty dang good too, has accumulated 28.5 sacks over the last 4 years as a DT. Not bad at all. But how much more crucial is Dareus to the Bills defense versus Green to the Bengals offense? AJ Greens makes the entire Bengals offense much better. Dareus makes the entire Bills defense better. Who is to say who is more important to their team or their side of the ball. However, with Dareus signing this big of a contract for a guy who was deemed maybe a top 5 player at his position, you would now expect the sign ability of Green to eclipse his WR predecessors in Bryant and Thomas. Keep in mind, these are the types of contracts being signed now.

I am not sure spreading Green's potential contract around to other players actually makes this a better team versus just having Green. I mean keep in mind, that B level players are getting 5 to 10 million a year now.

What would you rather have?

AJ Green for 15 million a year

or

Andre Smith for 6.3 million a year
Leon Hall for 9.6 million a year

That is basically what is happening when you look at what contracts cost. Hell, Leon got his contract several years ago too.

Who the hell wouldn't trade Smith and Hall for an AJ Green? Both are FA's after this season and freeing up nearly 16 million in cap space between the two. We drafted two tackles in the 1st and 2nd round to hopefully replace Smith by next year. Hall is easily replaced by Kirkpatrick, Denard, Jones, Shaw. We already have the depth at a couple areas, but one area we lack and keep coming back to as a weakness for this team is WR. How our WR core is shit, no depth, yaddie yaddie. Now you just want to throw one of the best WR's in the NFL out like trash because you don't like the salary he is going to demand when these are the standard NFL contracts now.

I mean clearly Green's new contract will cost a Brinks truck load of money, but I see that being a better deal to live with than our offense without Green in it.
 

Kingspoint

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While it would have been ideal to trade for Glennon or Mettenberger before the draft this year, their price has gone up since then. Before the draft, either could have been had for our 3rd round supplemental pick, though supplemental picks can't be traded, but that was about their cost...a late 3rd or early 4th. Now, Mettenberger is going to cost a 2nd, while Glennon will cost a regular 3rd.

Then, of course, there's the issue of Mike Brown being the worst GM at making trades among the 31 GM's plus his part-time job as G.M. of the Bengals. (Mike Brown has other jobs that take a lot more of his time than his responsibilities as Head of the Bengals.) It's common knowledge among Owners and G.M.'s, that if Mike Brown can't make a lopsided trade in his favor with you, he's not going to make the deal. It's also common knowledge that he's going to take forever to make a decision, making it difficult to get a deal done. Consequently, most Owners and G.M.'s won't even bother to pick up the phone and talk to him. Making a trade for QB where Mike Brown has to outbid other G.M.'s simply isn't going to happen....not in the last 27 years, and not in the remaining years that he's involved with the club.

The only way we're going to get a QB is through the draft. And, since Mike Brown doesn't cut ties with draft picks until their rookie contracts have expired, or they are gone through injuries, it's A.J. McCarron through 2017.

Knowing that we will have either Dalton (and more likely McCarron) under QB through 2017, it's critical that our running game be as strong as possible, which only requires that one WR be a possession Receiver and one be able to stretch the field. The Bengals like their Receiver to be big, so while Mario Alford has the ability to stretch the field, he doesn't have the size needed for the position when the Bengals are inside their opponent's 20-yard line. It's why we brought in from Oakland (off the waiver-wire) Denarius Moore. Unfortunately, Moore doesn't have the ability to run a proper route or stay focused long enough to make a catch, and he was offered a courtesy release at first cuts to give him a chance to latch on with another club (didn't happen). James Wright was trending towards being able to replace Green in 2017, but his torn PCL last December never healed without surgery, and the Bengals chose to shut him down at the beginning of training camp and go ahead with the PCL surgery. Wright made it through waivers unclaimed and he'll go into next year's training camp with 12 full months recovered from the surgery. He should have no lingering effect from it by then and will compete with whoever the Bengals draft next May as Green's replacement (unless they cave in to fandom asking for Green to be resigned).
 

cincygrad

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Takes two to tango Crash..... I do think the Bengals want to sign Green and I do think they've tried all summer. I think his agent wants him to be paid as the top receiver in the game and I don't think there is any evidence that he is the top receiver in the game. There's no reason for the Bengals to 'overpay' for him.

As for the other players -- Those were favorable deals when they made them. The Hall deal was a bargain and Tits wasn't wanted on the open market. Whether we should have just cut them before this season is a different story.... The Bengals aren't known for doing it though.
 

CrashDavisSports

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James Wright was trending towards being able to replace Green in 2017, but his torn PCL last December never healed without surgery, and the Bengals chose to shut him down at the beginning of training camp and go ahead with the PCL surgery. Wright made it through waivers unclaimed and he'll go into next year's training camp with 12 full months recovered from the surgery. He should have no lingering effect from it by then and will compete with whoever the Bengals draft next May as Green's replacement (unless they cave in to fandom asking for Green to be resigned).

Okay, I have been enjoying your posts and had fun debating with you, but right here you lost your f'n mind. I am sorry, but if you believe this for one second I have a hard time taking anything else you say at face value anymore. I will literally have to evaluate everything you say with a fine tooth comb because this is the most ludicrous statement I have ever heard.

What in God's green earth have you seen from Wright that makes you think he could even sniff AJ's jock more less replace him?

Listen, you can get guys by the dozen that have size, you can get guys by the dozen with stretch the field ability, but you can't just throw two of these guys on the field and hope they can play football at a high enough level to take pressure off an average QB at best.

You know Dalton and McCarron are going to be our QB. There is no way either one of those guys succeed without an AJ Green. There is no way that a Jeremy Hill gets less in the box to run against with no AJ Green demanding coverage at every second over and under.

If one of our offensive lineman go down, we are in trouble as our rookie tackle, Fisher, has looked lost this preseason, Winston is over the hill and while he had a decent season last year, he looked over matched this preseason. Then you have a backup center that couldn't even beat out the guy starting that everyone here is saying may be one of the worst centers in the NFL. Now tell me, how is our running game going to be successful with no AJ Green? How is our passing game going to resembling anything like competence without AJ Green.

Our offense is average at best right now. You get rid of one of the best players in the league and you may as well punch our ticket for a mid-20's ranked offense.
 

CrashDavisSports

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Takes two to tango Crash..... I do think the Bengals want to sign Green and I do think they've tried all summer. I think his agent wants him to be paid as the top receiver in the game and I don't think there is any evidence that he is the top receiver in the game. There's no reason for the Bengals to 'overpay' for him.

As for the other players -- Those were favorable deals when they made them. The Hall deal was a bargain and Tits wasn't wanted on the open market. Whether we should have just cut them before this season is a different story.... The Bengals aren't known for doing it though.


Okay, you just said it yourself. Leon Hall's deal was "favorable" which is now taking up 9.6 million dollars (and this is 5 years ago).

Tits hit the open market and couldn't find a single buyer for his services outside the Bengals who still gave him enough to account for 6.3 million against the cap this year.

Do you see how ridiculous contracts are getting? This is several years later and contracts and cap space has only increased. A top flight WR like Green deserves his 15 million a year at this point. Because in as little as 2 or 3 years from now, you will see top flight WR's from this draft class start to pull down 120 million or more, and Green's contract will look like a damn steal.
 

Kingspoint

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What will that franchise tag cost the team? I mean wouldn't it be cheaper to just sign him to a long term contract before the season hits? I mean I know that long term means overall more money and more years, but if we are looking to save money, wouldn't a long term contract afford us that opportunity? Just thoughts.

Green is a hair below Julio, Dez and Demaryius in quality and worth.

Using Jones' contract as the example (but, it's slightly different as Julio's is an extension, not a pure signing, so the pro-rated amounts per year are different, including their effects on the cap)...

8/29/2015: Signed a six-year, $81.432 million contract. The deal contains $47 million guaranteed, including a $12 million signing bonus. Jones' $11.5 million 2017 salary becomes fully guaranteed on March 11, 2016.
2015: $2.5 million (+ $7.5 million roster bonus + $6,000 workout bonus),
2016: $9.5 million (+ $4 million roster bonus),
2017: $11.5 million,
2018: $10.5 million,
2019: $12.5 million,
2020: $11.426 million,
2021: Free Agent

Use this link to see Julio's yearly cap costs:

Atlanta Falcons Multi-Year Cap Hits

The $15.9M for 2016 for Julio would be about the same as what it will be for Green in 2016 if Green signs a new contract. His Franchise-tag amount, and this is a guess, as I forgot what the exact number is, is somewhere between $12.5M and $14.0M. So, it's about $1.9M-$3.4M less than the contract amount. But, the key is that it's only for one year. As you mentioned, Peko's salary will be gone, while it's possible that Dalton's will be, too. Leon Hall's $9.6M of 2015 will either be gone completely or he'll sign for a lot less (but, the Bengals have made stupid, expensive signings as recently as Mauluga's, Peko's and Hawk's). Whitworth and Smith's will either be gone, or for a lot less. Reggie Nelson will be resigned for more than his $4.7M. Zeitler's jumps from $2.4M to $8M. Vincent Rey's $3.1M goes away completely, or he resigns for less (per his value, though that's not guaranteed). Iloka will get a huge raise from his $1.5M. Thompson should get a big raise from his $800K. Carter should get a big raise from his $750K. Marvin Jones should get a big raise from his $700K. Sanu could get cut if he doesn't improve his "drop rate" significantly, which he should now that he's back to playing his right position, so Sanu could get a raise from his $1.6M. Maualuga's salary drops from $7.1M to $4.1M. Ideally, Maualuga gets cut and we save another $4.1M. Dre's salary jumps from $2.7M to $7.5M. If Dre doesn't prove he can stay healthy and prove worthy of $7.5M, he could get cut with Troy Hill ready to step in next year and take his place. Adam Jones should be brought back under a team-friendly salary. Dalton's salary jumps from $9.6M to $13.1M. They won't cut Dalton until after 2016. MJ's salary jumps from $2.6M to $6.1M. Dunlap's salary jumps $1M. Burfict's salary jumps $1.3M, and we don't know yet, if Burfict will even be able to play football at an NFL level. He's always one play away from getting injured, and he's had too many concussions. Gilberry and Lamur cost $4.3M between them and decisions to resign them will need to be made.

Looking at all of that, which is very confusing in a paragraph form...you can see it in a grid form from that same link, as a G.M., I know that I could afford Green for one season at $13.0M, but with Dre, Eifert, Zeitler all needing new contracts in 2017 and with all of the contracts that have to be worked out in 2016, I would like to have the flexibility of not paying one of my Receivers $15M from 2017-2020...when I can get what I need from that spot for between $1M-$4M for those seasons.
 

CrashDavisSports

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Green is a hair below Julio, Dez and Demaryius in quality and worth.

Using Jones' contract as the example (but, it's slightly different as Julio's is an extension, not a pure signing, so the pro-rated amounts per year are different, including their effects on the cap)...

8/29/2015: Signed a six-year, $81.432 million contract. The deal contains $47 million guaranteed, including a $12 million signing bonus. Jones' $11.5 million 2017 salary becomes fully guaranteed on March 11, 2016.
2015: $2.5 million (+ $7.5 million roster bonus + $6,000 workout bonus),
2016: $9.5 million (+ $4 million roster bonus),
2017: $11.5 million,
2018: $10.5 million,
2019: $12.5 million,
2020: $11.426 million,
2021: Free Agent

Use this link to see Julio's yearly cap costs:

Atlanta Falcons Multi-Year Cap Hits

The $15.9M for 2016 for Julio would be about the same as what it will be for Green in 2016 if Green signs a new contract. His Franchise-tag amount, and this is a guess, as I forgot what the exact number is, is somewhere between $12.5M and $14.0M. So, it's about $1.9M-$3.4M less than the contract amount. But, the key is that it's only for one year. As you mentioned, Peko's salary will be gone, while it's possible that Dalton's will be, too. Leon Hall's $9.6M of 2015 will either be gone completely or he'll sign for a lot less (but, the Bengals have made stupid, expensive signings as recently as Mauluga's, Peko's and Hawk's). Whitworth and Smith's will either be gone, or for a lot less. Reggie Nelson will be resigned for more than his $4.7M. Zeitler's jumps from $2.4M to $8M. Vincent Rey's $3.1M goes away completely, or he resigns for less (per his value, though that's not guaranteed). Iloka will get a huge raise from his $1.5M. Thompson should get a big raise from his $800K. Carter should get a big raise from his $750K. Marvin Jones should get a big raise from his $700K. Sanu could get cut if he doesn't improve his "drop rate" significantly, which he should now that he's back to playing his right position, so Sanu could get a raise from his $1.6M. Maualuga's salary drops from $7.1M to $4.1M. Ideally, Maualuga gets cut and we save another $4.1M. Dre's salary jumps from $2.7M to $7.5M. If Dre doesn't prove he can stay healthy and prove worthy of $7.5M, he could get cut with Troy Hill ready to step in next year and take his place. Adam Jones should be brought back under a team-friendly salary. Dalton's salary jumps from $9.6M to $13.1M. They won't cut Dalton until after 2016. MJ's salary jumps from $2.6M to $6.1M. Dunlap's salary jumps $1M. Burfict's salary jumps $1.3M, and we don't know yet, if Burfict will even be able to play football at an NFL level. He's always one play away from getting injured, and he's had too many concussions. Gilberry and Lamur cost $4.3M between them and decisions to resign them will need to be made.

Looking at all of that, which is very confusing in a paragraph form...you can see it in a grid form from that same link, as a G.M., I know that I could afford Green for one season at $13.0M, but with Dre, Eifert, Zeitler all needing new contracts in 2017 and with all of the contracts that have to be worked out in 2016, I would like to have the flexibility of not paying one of my Receivers $15M from 2017-2020...when I can get what I need from that spot for between $1M-$4M for those seasons.

Ask the Ravens how easy it is to come by a quality WR to lead their WR core for 1 to 4 million a year.

I see what you are saying about raises, and I did take into reasonable account some of the raises. How much is Green making on his 5th year deal this year?

You are not taking into account the difference is what we would be paying. Everyone is treating this 15 million a year as if it is all new contract money having to be accounted for.

AJ Green this year is making $10,176,000 this year. The difference in this salary is only 5 million a year. Yes, I know 5 million is a big bump and a possible 2nd quality player, but when you consider the importance of AJ Green both to the offense, but also to merchandising and ticket sales, he is a rock star.

The sap is going up, players will be cut or enter FA next year. Some guys will have to be replaced by younger guys on the roster, ie: Brandon Thompson with DeShaun Williams, Maualuga with Dawson, Smith with Fisher, and possibly Whitworth with Ogbuehi, so forth and so on. They anticipate issues with some of these contracts so they drafted accordingly this year to offset those loses next year without having to reach too badly in the draft which may not present the same quality players at Tackle that was available this year.

There are lost of guys making coin that is close to being out of contract or out of contract. You keep the core stars together as long as possible during their prime years.

Plus, I disagree with you. I think Green is every bit as good as Bryant, Jones, Johnson, just has less of a QB throwing him the football and he is still a catch machine and yard machine. However, I am also a Bronco sub fan, and I will never agree that Green is less of a WR than Thomas. I would take Green every day and twice on Sunday over Thomas.
 

alf8478

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I would let him play the season out, and throw the tag on him.
If we miss the playoffs or are one and done (again), then its time to blow the whole team up and I trade him for picks. If a miracle happens and we win a playoff game or two, then i'll sign him.
 

Kingspoint

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Okay, I have been enjoying your posts and had fun debating with you, but right here you lost your f'n mind. I am sorry, but if you believe this for one second I have a hard time taking anything else you say at face value anymore. I will literally have to evaluate everything you say with a fine tooth comb because this is the most ludicrous statement I have ever heard.

What in God's green earth have you seen from Wright that makes you think he could even sniff AJ's jock more less replace him?

Listen, you can get guys by the dozen that have size, you can get guys by the dozen with stretch the field ability, but you can't just throw two of these guys on the field and hope they can play football at a high enough level to take pressure off an average QB at best.

You know Dalton and McCarron are going to be our QB. There is no way either one of those guys succeed without an AJ Green. There is no way that a Jeremy Hill gets less in the box to run against with no AJ Green demanding coverage at every second over and under.

I'll have to repost my opinion on Wright:

"James Wright was trending towards being able to replace Green in 2017"

That says a lot. "trending", "able to replace", and "2017".

That assumed that at the current pace the Rookie Wright was at, that if he continued it for two more full seasons, that by 2017, he would be able to replace Green. But, by no means would he produce like Green. That would take unforeseen growth. By replace, I'll go back to what I wrote previously about what the Bengals need for their two WR positions. Wright showed last season that he was perfectly capable of being a possession Receiver. But, I also said that he would be competing with whoever Duke Tobin drafts in 2016...a 1st Round WR ideally, or a 2nd Round WR at the worst. In addition, the timeline for replacing Green would still be 2017. Green isn't going anywhere next year because as you said, "Who would replace him?"

Personally, I think it's pretty easy to find a WR to replace Green. That Baltimore hasn't found one is simply because they haven't looked. They wasted too much money on Flacco. There's other issues there. But, they haven't done well at all at developing or drafting Wide Receivers. That speaks more on their poor abilities at drafting than it does about the quality of available Wide Receivers drafted.

2014 and 2015 were the two best Wide Receiver draft classes ever. Baltimore took CJ Moseley, who made the Pro Bowl already, but they passed on Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, John Brown and Martavis Bryant.

They went WR with their 1st pick on 2015, but questionably took a Receiver just like the one they had in Jacoby Jones....a Receiver who major concentration issues in Breshad Perriman.

[It bothers me that the Bengals let Philadelphia take Agholor one pick ahead of them, when they could have leapfrogged them and took him. That would have given us a #1 WR, who would have replaced Sanu in the Slot (an ideal player for Dalton, too!) and made the decision about Green not as difficult of a decision to make. But, Mike Brown always lets the draft play him, instead of the other way around.]
 

Kingspoint

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Green has some concentration issues. He drops too many balls and fumbles too often compared to the players he's being compared with. Those issues end drives and change momentum of games.
 

CrashDavisSports

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I'll have to repost my opinion on Wright:

"James Wright was trending towards being able to replace Green in 2017"

That says a lot. "trending", "able to replace", and "2017".

That assumed that at the current pace the Rookie Wright was at, that if he continued it for two more full seasons, that by 2017, he would be able to replace Green. But, by no means would he produce like Green. That would take unforeseen growth. By replace, I'll go back to what I wrote previously about what the Bengals need for their two WR positions. Wright showed last season that he was perfectly capable of being a possession Receiver. But, I also said that he would be competing with whoever Duke Tobin drafts in 2016...a 1st Round WR ideally, or a 2nd Round WR at the worst. In addition, the timeline for replacing Green would still be 2017. Green isn't going anywhere next year because as you said, "Who would replace him?"

Personally, I think it's pretty easy to find a WR to replace Green. That Baltimore hasn't found one is simply because they haven't looked. They wasted too much money on Flacco. There's other issues there. But, they haven't done well at all at developing or drafting Wide Receivers. That speaks more on their poor abilities at drafting than it does about the quality of available Wide Receivers drafted.

2014 and 2015 were the two best Wide Receiver draft classes ever. Baltimore took CJ Moseley, who made the Pro Bowl already, but they passed on Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, John Brown and Martavis Bryant.

They went WR with their 1st pick on 2015, but questionably took a Receiver just like the one they had in Jacoby Jones....a Receiver who major concentration issues in Breshad Perriman.

[It bothers me that the Bengals let Philadelphia take Agholor one pick ahead of them, when they could have leapfrogged them and took him. That would have given us a #1 WR, who would have replaced Sanu in the Slot (an ideal player for Dalton, too!) and made the decision about Green not as difficult of a decision to make. But, Mike Brown always lets the draft play him, instead of the other way around.]

I am not even sure Mike Brown is involved in the draft enough to make anything good happen, or screw anything up.

I think most all draft picks are determined by the scouting department with the lead of Tobin and discussions with Marvin Lewis.

I think that Brown pays the checks and acts like a figure head more than anything now.

We can agree to disagree as I think it would be a monster mistake to let AJ Green walk after 2016. Unless we sign a stud WR who is on the affordable side in FA, along with draft a WR with our first pick in the 2016 draft who looks to be a stud like Watkins, Cooper, Cooks...I think we should stay pat. Even then, I would be more up for moving Sanu and Jones while keeping AJ Green along with those other two players.
 

Kingspoint

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Hall's two Achille's ruptures made his contract not worth it. They lost on that one. Hall is worth about $2M-$3M right now, and that's what we should offer him next season. Lord knows, he owes us from what we have already paid him. Doubt any other team offers him more than that.

Andre Smith was the #1 RT, not only on the market when we resigned him, but he was coming off being the #1 RT that season. Mike Brown held out and waited for the market to dictate the price, and not give in to Andre Smith's demands. We got Andre at a good price. Could Brown have paid less? Probably. But, there were also incentives thrown in and we were able to cut him at any time if he failed to produce. He's had good and average seasons since signing the contract. He's in a contract year, so he's definitely worth every penny of this year's $6.7M, as he's likely to be a Top-5 RT. We know what motivates him. If you are determined to be a running team, then you better have one of the best RT's in the league. We have that. But, we're talking about 2017 anyway. Fisher and Ogbuehi should be ready by then.
 
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