AL Central Discussion

[WiggyRuss]

His stuff just isn't there anymore. It was electric, now it's nothing special. His velocity is down too.

wtf? his velocity is down? he was at 102 the day he blew the save vs. the Rays....his stuff is not as good overall but that game there were 2 infield hits...Diaz did sscorch one though.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Bibee has arguably been the best pitcheri n the AL since July 1st....geez...

1.78 ERA in July

1.89 ERA in August. whip of just over 1.00.

Against some good teams too- CHC, TEX, PHI, HOU, TOR, TAM among a few of them.

Last 9 starts- 11 eraned runs in 55 1/3 innings. 1.78 ERA

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Basically Sonny had a blow up inning vs the O's before ASB and then a blow up inning vs M's right after ASB.

Rest of the season hes been a 2.60 era pitcher.

Lopez has been the most valuable pitcher in baseball since June 1. Sonny a top 5 for the whole year.

Maeda has an era barely over 2 since his IL return.

When there was talk of Ryan and Ober regressing. There were clear signs than Lopez and Maeda would improve. Gray is a vet. Ryans issues are hopefully groin related. Ober too small a sample to determine if a true regression has hit.

Still a little nervous about Maeda potentially in a game 3. But Gray, Lopez, Maeda have been a 3 headed monster and all 3 still have advanced metrics better than their ERA's to suggest it could continue.

The bullpen though........yeah thats hanging by a 4 man thread. Thanks Falvey.

 

[WiggyRuss]

When there was talk of Ryan and Ober regressing. There were clear signs than Lopez and Maeda would improve. Gray is a vet. Ryans issues are hopefully groin related. Ober too small a sample to determine if a true regression has hit.

When I said Ryan, Ober and Gray would regress and could not continue to having a combined 2.50 ERA- you said that that nothing in Ryan's numbers would say he would regress.

In some ways, I do not think you understand that just because underlying metrics say a certain thing, that those underlying metrics are going to continue to play out.

I would be glad to show you where months ago I said Ryan would regress and you said he would not and that his underlying metrics supported his stats.

 

[WiggyRuss]

baseball is a marathon and more often than not....things equalize over a season.

Mountcastle and REynolds were terrible for times- and I am sure there underlying metrics said they were terrible--- but time goes on and things usually average out.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

When I said Ryan, Ober and Gray would regress and could not continue to having a combined 2.50 ERA- you said that that nothing in Ryan's numbers would say he would regress.

In some ways, I do not think you understand that just because underlying metrics say a certain thing, that those underlying metrics are going to continue to play out.

I would be glad to show you where months ago I said Ryan would regress and you said he would not and that his underlying metrics supported his stats.

Correct nothing did.

And he regressed(numbers now line up with it more) but that may be due to a groin.

The numbers also said that Gray, Maeda and Lopez were due to stay the same, improve, improve. All 3 have.

The underlying numbers on Ober said he would regress to a 3.5 pitcher. Right where hes at after 2 bad starts and a shaky one.

So the underlying metrics have been very accurate in determining who would regress and who would improve.

Twins rotation post all star break is still 6th best in baseball.....Guardians 8.

But here is the biggest issue of all outside of you actually being wrong. What you cannot grasp is this(which has been stated to you multiple times) its not a matter of whether you are right or wrong(mostly wrong) its that what you are "predicting" is misguided and supported by ZERO data.

Like I could have said in July "Jose Ramirez is due to go into a massive slump". Nothing would have supported that. But today it would be correct. Because he is.

You said the Twins rotation would plummet. Nothing supported your claim numbers wise. Navamind also showed you stats that supported their accomplishments. Now here we are and you were right about an injured Ryan. Semi right about Ober. MASSIVE wiff on Gray. And as I told you back then you were ignoring Lopez and Maeda who have both since SURGED due to metrics lining up with results.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Correct nothing did.

And he regressed(numbers now line up with it more) but that may be due to a groin.

The numbers also said that Gray, Maeda and Lopez were due to stay the same, improve, improve. All 3 have.

The underlying numbers on Ober said he would regress to a 3.5 pitcher. Right where hes at after 2 bad starts and a shaky one.

So the underlying metrics have been very accurate in determining who would regress and who would improve.

Twins rotation post all star break is still 6th best in baseball.....Guardians 8.

But here is the biggest issue of all outside of you actually being wrong. What you cannot grasp is this(which has been stated to you multiple times) its not a matter of whether you are right or wrong(mostly wrong) its that what you are "predicting" is misguided and supported by ZERO data.

Like I could have said in July "Jose Ramirez is due to go into a massive slump". Nothing would have supported that. But today it would be correct. Because he is.

You said the Twins rotation would plummet. Nothing supported your claim numbers wise. Navamind also showed you stats that supported their accomplishments. Now here we are and you were right about an injured Ryan. Semi right about Ober. MASSIVE wiff on Gray. And as I told you back then you were ignoring Lopez and Maeda who have both since SURGED due to metrics lining up with results.

at the time Gray had a 2.25 ERA. Now his ERA is over 3.0

at the time Ober had a 2.61 ERA. Now its 3.40

at the time Ryan had a 2.90 ERA. Now its over 4.40


I will say- at the time Lopez had a 4.25 ERA which is def. pretty high for him...things averaged out and now he is at 3.66 which is more in line with his career numbers.

all of them are more in line with their career numbers. Funny how that happens when stretched out over a longer time span.

 

[WiggyRuss]

I will say- I thought Williams and Bibee would be good--- I think my prediction was about a 3.50 ERA for each and about a K an inning a piece for each---- so I have to say its a pleasant surprise that both are under 3.00 ERA's right now (2.80 and 2.90, respectively).

Especially since each has only lowered their ERA's as they get towrads their all time innings pitched in a year lines. Williams looks like a strikeout monster lately.....Bibee looks like he just has a great feel for pitching.

Allen is a little better than I assumed at a 3.55 ERA....esp. since he has a pretty high WHIP at 1.37.....though lefties usually get a little bump for their ability to stifle the running game a little more.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Best ERA's in baseball over the last 60 days (At least 50 IP):

1. Blake Snell: 1.33
2. Joe Musgrove: 1.80
3. Michael Lorenzen: 2.06
4. TAnnber Bibee: 2.09
5. JP France: 2.20
6. Verlander: 2.31
7. Kikuchi: 2.45
8. Bradish: 2.48
9. Civale: 2.58
10. Montgomery: 2.62
11. Ashcraft: 2.78
12. Cole: 2.78
13. G. Williams: 2.80
14. Gilbert: 2.83
15. Lopez: 2.84
16. Gausman: 2.92
17. Steele: 2.95
18. Kirby 2.95
19. Gomber: 3.09
20. Sanchez (PHI): 3.17
21. Senga: 3.26
22. Strider: 3.26
23. Peralta: 3.28
24. Walker (PHI): 3.32
25. Alcantra: 3.36
26. Sherzer: 3.38
27. Webb: 3.39
28. Dunning: 3.39
29. Gallen: 3.41
30. Abbott: 3.48
31. Singer: 3.52
32. Luzardo: 3.54
33. Wheeler: 3.60
34. Castillo: 3.69
35. Burnes: 3.82
36. Bello: 3.84
37. Bassit: 3.86
38. Morton: 3.86
39. Gray: 3.88

 

[mr.hockey4242]

at the time Gray had a 2.25 ERA. Now his ERA is over 3.0

at the time Ober had a 2.61 ERA. Now its 3.40

at the time Ryan had a 2.90 ERA. Now its over 4.40


I will say- at the time Lopez had a 4.25 ERA which is def. pretty high for him...things averaged out and now he is at 3.66 which is more in line with his career numbers.

all of them are more in line with their career numbers. Funny how that happens when stretched out over a longer time span.

Gray has a 3.04 era with a 2.79 FIP. And as I outlined his numbers only went up because of two bad innings. Hes got a 2.61 since then.

At the time Bieber had like a 2.9 era hes now at a 3.78 because his metrics said he would implode.

At the time I told you that Ryans career path was playing out same as "proven" Mckenzie. He proceeded to get rocked and then injured.

At the time you said the Guardians rotation would end up being better than the Twins. Twins rotation is still better the second half.

You dont know what youre talking about, that keeps being established. You flip flop when experience matters, when guuys are having a bad year when it fits your argument.

Youre in over your head. You are on the NBA board. You are here. You dont know advanced stats. You dont know the game.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Pablo Lopez pitching

But because his 3.66 era is "in line" with his career Wiggy cant comprehend anything other than that.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Gray has a 3.04 era with a 2.79 FIP. And as I outlined his numbers only went up because of two bad innings. Hes got a 2.61 since then.

At the time Bieber had like a 2.9 era hes now at a 3.78 because his metrics said he would implode.

At the time I told you that Ryans career path was playing out same as "proven" Mckenzie. He proceeded to get rocked and then injured.

At the time you said the Guardians rotation would end up being better than the Twins. Twins rotation is still better the second half.

You dont know what youre talking about, that keeps being established. You flip flop when experience matters, when guuys are having a bad year when it fits your argument.

Youre in over your head. You are on the NBA board. You are here. You dont know advanced stats. You dont know the game.

I mean- McKenzie has basically 2 full years in the majors....his first year he had some growing pains- the 2nd, he was throwing gas and proceeded to be a top 15 IP, top 20 in ERA, top 20 in K's. Do you know how valuable it is to get 190 innings of sub 3.0 era pitching, sub 1.0 whip, and a K an inning? highly doubtful Ryan ever has a year like Mckenzie had last year. Gray will be lucky to finish at that type of level this year.

It did not take a genius to see that Bieber was severly lacking stuff this year. He was getting by on guile and clearly pitching hurt.

uhhh.....once it was clear that McKenzie was done for the year and Bieber was pitching hurt and went on the DL for an extended period and Quintrell was pitching hurt and went on the DL for an extended period, and they dealt Civale, its pretty apparent that the rotation was going to be a mess.



can you even imagine that level of injury and the Guardians STILL have the 4th best pitching staf in baseball behind only the Mariners, Jays and Astros?

 

[WiggyRuss]

last year the Guardians had almost 600 innings of baseball pitched by McKenzie, Bieber and Quintrell to a combined 3.10 ERA. This year becuase of injury they have gotten less than 200 innings out of those guys to an ERA over 4.0

and STILL they have the 4th best ERA in all of baseball.

its because even if they lose their best pitching prospect to injury (Espino) they can develop guys like Williams, Bibee and Allen and get the most out of a guy like Civale.

not saying its gonna last because it probably wont- but even Syndegaard has a 3.71 ERA with the Guardians.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

I mean- McKenzie has basically 2 full years in the majors....his first year he had some growing pains- the 2nd, he was throwing gas and proceeded to be a top 15 IP, top 20 in ERA, top 20 in K's. Do you know how valuable it is to get 190 innings of sub 3.0 era pitching, sub 1.0 whip, and a K an inning? highly doubtful Ryan ever has a year like Mckenzie had last year. Gray will be lucky to finish at that type of level this year.

It did not take a genius to see that Bieber was severly lacking stuff this year. He was getting by on guile and clearly pitching hurt.

uhhh.....once it was clear that McKenzie was done for the year and Bieber was pitching hurt and went on the DL for an extended period and Quintrell was pitching hurt and went on the DL for an extended period, and they dealt Civale, its pretty apparent that the rotation was going to be a mess.



can you even imagine that level of injury and the Guardians STILL have the 4th best pitching staf in baseball behind only the Mariners, Jays and Astros?

Again, McKenzie has the bad underlying metrics which support him getting rocked and blowing out. McKenzie had a 4.95 ERA.

Everything about him points to the 2.96 ERA being the fluke.

But again you say imagine the level of injury. Twins rotation in the second half has been better. Twins have had Ryan hurt. Maeda hurt. Stewart and Thielbar hurt in the pen.

And with that. THey have had their starters give more innings with the production while also having underlying numbers to support Gray, Lopez and Maeda. While eveyrthing says youre lucky to not have Bieber and Williams/Bibee are due for regression at any moment.

Just stop picking and choosing. Everyone will take you much more seriously.

 

[WiggyRuss]

just for some context---- last year you know how many guys threw at least a 190 innings with a sub 3.00 ERA?

1. Manoah
2. Alcantra
3. Valdez
4. Bieber
5. Perez
6. Webb
7. Burnes
8. McKenzie

how many guys are on pace this year?

1. Cole

Gray, Kirby, Gausman, and Castillo have chances- all are over 3.0 right now-- but are close- but I think the IP will be tougher for most of them. No way do Snell, Eovaldi Steele, Kelly or Dunning get there.


in 2021- there were 4 guys that had 190 IP and a sub 3 ERA.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

last year the Guardians had almost 600 innings of baseball pitched by McKenzie, Bieber and Quintrell to a combined 3.10 ERA. This year becuase of injury they have gotten less than 200 innings out of those guys to an ERA over 4.0

and STILL they have the 4th best ERA in all of baseball.

its because even if they lose their best pitching prospect to injury (Espino) they can develop guys like Williams, Bibee and Allen and get the most out of a guy like Civale.

not saying its gonna last because it probably wont- but even Syndegaard has a 3.71 ERA with the Guardians.

Again, no track record and metrics pointed to him being awful.

He got rocked because he sucks not because hes hurt. They are hiding him on the IL

 

[WiggyRuss]

Again, McKenzie has the bad underlying metrics which support him getting rocked and blowing out. McKenzie had a 4.95 ERA.

Everything about him points to the 2.96 ERA being the fluke.

But again you say imagine the level of injury. Twins rotation in the second half has been better. Twins have had Ryan hurt. Maeda hurt. Stewart and Thielbar hurt in the pen.

And with that. THey have had their starters give more innings with the production while also having underlying numbers to support Gray, Lopez and Maeda. While eveyrthing says youre lucky to not have Bieber and Williams/Bibee are due for regression at any moment.

Just stop picking and choosing. Everyone will take you much more seriously.

LOL the underlying metrics of 10 INNINGS PITCHED!!!! LOL. you have got to be shitting me. 4.95 ERA in 2 starts. The first one he had 0 runs when he carved up the Twins in his first start back to 5 innings pitched , and 10 k's. and then he pitched against the Astros, went on the DL and never came off and gave up 5 runs that game.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Again, no track record and metrics pointed to him being awful.

He got rocked because he sucks not because hes hurt. They are hiding him on the IL

so you think at 28 years old Bieber just lost his stuff? not hurt....they just decided to put a guy with a 3.77 ERA and a Cy Young pedigree on the DL for shits and giggles and instead start Noah Syndegaard and Xavion Curry while still less than 5 games back?? lol.

dude, hitting the sauce a little early today.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Again, no track record and metrics pointed to him being awful.

He got rocked because he sucks not because hes hurt. They are hiding him on the IL

say what you want about Quintrell.

his metrics sucked in 2021 when he had a 2.89 ERA over 150 innings

his metrics sucked again in 2022 when he had a 3.38 EREA over 186 innings.

Joe Ryan would KILL to have back to back seasons like that. Some guys - especially if they are in an organization that knows how to develop pitching- dont need to strike out 12 k's per 9 to be effective. It certainly is not like Aaron Civale has overpowering stuff.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

just for some context---- last year you know how many guys threw at least a 190 innings with a sub 3.00 ERA?

1. Manoah
2. Alcantra
3. Valdez
4. Bieber
5. Perez
6. Webb
7. Burnes
8. McKenzie

how many guys are on pace this year?

1. Cole

Gray, Kirby, Gausman, and Castillo have chances- all are over 3.0 right now-- but are close- but I think the IP will be tougher for most of them. No way do Snell, Eovaldi Steele, Kelly or Dunning get there.


in 2021- there were 4 guys that had 190 IP and a sub 3 ERA.

1. Manoah- 3.35 FIP(massive step back this year)
2. Alcantara-2.99 FIP
3. Valdez- 3.06 FIP
4. Bieber-2.87 FIP
5. Perez- 3.26 FIP(virtually unplayable this year)
6. Webb- 3.03 FIP
7. Burnes- 3.14
8. McKenzie- 3.59


McKenzie had by far the biggest descripency. His one year was a fluke. Hes done nothign to show hes that type of pitcher consistently. Manoah the other pitcher with a massive gap(the biggest gap) is terrible this year. Alcantara had another massive gap and has seen massive regression. Perez you mention and with all your talk about "proving it" Perez is the exact defention of a guy who had a year out of nowhere then went back to being shit. But you claim is outlandish to think Sonny Gray and his career 3.5 can have a career year haha.

Actually every guy on that list is worse this year than last year. But guys like Webb, Valdez, Burnes are at least consistent in their ERA/metrics and have established themselves reliable arms with stuff that tracks year to year.

Bieber just hit a wall and no one knows whats up with his extreme drop in stuff.

If you just look at ERA youre in for a rude awakening more times than not. Gray and Lopez have high end WARS because everything suggests they have been really, really strong this year. This isnt your opinion or gut feeling. Its the numbers