2025 Rookie Discussion

[SmokingMonkey]

Roughly how i view the top end of this class, guys in same tier are similarly valued and not listed in my order of preference.

Jeanty
--- small tier break ---
Hampton/Hunter
--- small tier break ---
Judkins/Henderson/TMac
--- medium tier break ---
Kaleb/Harvey/Egbuka
--- big tier break ---
Ward/Warren/Loveland/Golden/Scattebo/Higgins/Burden/Bech/Harris

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Figured if I'm talking 3 firsts might as well talk to the Jeanty owner

Gonna offer 1.06, 1.16, future 1st

 

[TREFF]

Figured if I'm talking 3 firsts might as well talk to the Jeanty owner

Gonna offer 1.06, 1.16, future 1st

Three firsts? Perhaps I misread the post. 2 yes, 3? Meh not so much, not for 1.03

But for Jeanty, sure why not

I thought it was the 1.06 and a future #1.. didn't catch 1.06 AND 1.16 AND the '26 #1. No wonder there was confusion

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Three firsts? Perhaps I misread the post. 2 yes, 3? Meh not so much, not for 1.03

But for Jeanty, sure why not

I thought it was the 1.06 and a future #1.. didn't catch 1.06 AND 1.16 AND the '26 #1. No wonder there was confusion

I told the Jeanty owner, he either needs to keep 1.01, take stud RB, suck 1 more year then hope his 2 first round picks in '26 are hits
Or
Get some kind of package that involves 3 firsts or 3 comparable assets to 3 firsts, even if that deal is with another owner and not me

 

[Bandit]

I told the Jeanty owner, he either needs to keep 1.01, take stud RB, suck 1 more year then hope his 2 first round picks in '26 are hits
Or
Get some kind of package that involves 3 firsts or 3 comparable assets to 3 firsts, even if that deal is with another owner and not me

Personal preference here, but if I have the 1.01 I want two established starting players, not dart throw rookie picks that might or might not pan out. You send me a starting running back in the 10-14 range and starting wide receiver in the 10-14 range and then we can negotiate from there depending on who it is.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Personal preference here, but if I have the 1.01 I want two established starting players, not dart throw rookie picks that might or might not pan out. You send me a starting running back in the 10-14 range and starting wide receiver in the 10-14 range and then we can negotiate from there depending on who it is.

Assuming that adding a top 10-14ish RB and WR would make your team competitive, that makes sense.

But what do you do if both of those options --- staying put and drafting Jeanty or getting a backend RB1 + WR1 and some change --- still don't make you a playoff team?

 

[Bandit]

Assuming that adding a top 10-14ish RB and WR would make your team competitive, that makes sense.

But what do you do if both of those options --- staying put and drafting Jeanty or getting a backend RB1 + WR1 and some change --- still don't make you a playoff team?

Then I draft Jeanty. Or best case scenario trade back to 2 and draft Hampton. I think he's going to be just as good.

 

[averagejoe]

I dont think anyone believes that the rookies will have the fantasy production in line with their ranking.

Just look at the 2024 class:

View attachment 398241

Marvin was the undisputed #1 overall last year. He finished as the WR30. Whereas Nabors and Thomas finished WR4 and WR5 respectively.

 

[TREFF]

Marvin was the undisputed #1 overall last year. He finished as the WR30. Whereas Nabors and Thomas finished WR4 and WR5 respectively.

That Kyler Murray is a piece of work man..

Not his job to get the ball to Harrison. I'm not sure how long it'll take me to forget that brilliant quote

 

[leftypower]

Marvin was the undisputed #1 overall last year. He finished as the WR30. Whereas Nabors and Thomas finished WR4 and WR5 respectively.

And Bucky was a mid-late 2nd or 3rd round pick in most league - yet he was better than any other RB on that list. .....

 

[averagejoe]

Fast Stat from ESPN

"Since 2011, only 13 of 74 RBs selected in rounds 2-3 have reached 800 rushing yards in year 1. 14 of them reached 6 rushing TD."

Guess we'll see if this class is as special as advertised.

 

[wilwhite]

Fast Stat from ESPN

"Since 2011, only 13 of 74 RBs selected in rounds 2-3 have reached 800 rushing yards in year 1. 14 of them reached 6 rushing TD."

Guess we'll see if this class is as special as advertised.

All the talent in the world won't increase the number of plays in a game. If there were 80 Derrick Henrys in the league they'd all have trouble getting 1000 yards.

Also 800 is a lot. Before we had 17-game seasons only about 20 RBs a year would hit 800 yards. So like one of those every year would be a round 2/3 RB.

I also have a suspicion most of those 74 RBs went to a team with an established back who was a starter the previous year and was expected to start again. Lemme check the past few years...

Okay:

2022-2024 Round 2/3 RBs, with who they were behind their rookie year, sorted by the yards of the guy in front of them:
Spears (Henry ffs, 1538 rushing yds previous year) 453 yds
Corum (Williams, 1144) 207 yds
Bigsby (Etienne, 1125) 132 yds
Charbonnet (Walker, 1050) 462 yds
Trey Benson (Conner, 1040) 291 yds
Brian Robinson (Gibson, 1037) 797 yds
Davis-Price (Mitchell, 963) 99 yds
Brooks (Hubbard, 902) 22 yds
Kendre Miller (Kamara, 897) 156 yds
Achane (Mostert, 891) 800 yds
James Cook (Singletary, 870) 507 yds
Rachaad White (Fournette, 812) 481 yds
Lloyd (Jacobs, 805) 15 yds

So of the thirteen guys behind 800-yard rushers, none broke 800 rushing yards (though Robinson probably would have if he hadn't been shot).

The two others:
Walker (behind Penny, 749 rushing yds previous year) 1050 yds
Hall (behind Carter, 639) 463 yds (on pace for >1K)

Lots of special circumstances obviously, but basically, for Year 1, the guy in front of you matters a lot.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Lots of special circumstances obviously, but basically, for Year 1, the guy in front of you matters a lot.

rookie RBs always get overhyped for fantasy

 

[TREFF]

Fast Stat from ESPN

"Since 2011, only 13 of 74 RBs selected in rounds 2-3 have reached 800 rushing yards in year 1. 14 of them reached 6 rushing TD."

Guess we'll see if this class is as special as advertised.

They won't. Not enough of them got drafted to teams that'll give them enough touches to reach 800. Maybe 3-4. But I'd only bet on 2- and both of them were drafted in the first, not the 2nd

 

[TREFF]

They won't. Not enough of them got drafted to teams that'll give them enough touches to reach 800. Maybe 3-4. But I'd only bet on 2- and both of them were drafted in the first, not the 2nd

However, if i had faith in the Browns offense in general, I would feel comfortable being that BOTH Sampson and Judkins could reach 800

 

[wilwhite]

rookie RBs always get overhyped for fantasy

Well, dynasty.... Chase Brown was a 2023 draftee but it would have been silly to draft him as anything but a flier in a redraft league that year.

I think people though Corum would supplant Kyren Williams because they took him in the third but Williams was a fifth-rounder. I have a suspicion Year 1 rookie production has more to do with his vet's previous production than either one's draft position.

Jeanty (ADP RB 4): Mostert, 278 yds (should shine)
Hampton (ADP RB 16): Najee, 1043 (ouch)
Harvey (ADP RB 20): McLaughlin, 496 (good!)
Treyveon (ADP RB 22): Stevenson, 801 (iffy)
Judkins (ADP RB 24) - tough to say cuz his competition is Sampson
Kaleb (ADP RB 27): Warren, 511 (good!)
Skattebo (ADP RB 33): Tracy 839 (iffy)

For redraft that's way too high for Hampton IMO, and way too low for Kaleb.

 

[averagejoe]

Went over some stats and coaching history over the long weekend.

Last time Josh McDaniels was the OC in NE without Tom Brady (2020 and 2021), he ran the ball 500 times and gave the RB another 100 targets.

As for Denver, yeah, they were 10-7 last year but there offensive stats were really sort of average. Not sure how that will play out this year, but i think Harvey is getting too much hype.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Went over some stats and coaching history over the long weekend.

Last time Josh McDaniels was the OC in NE without Tom Brady (2020 and 2021), he ran the ball 500 times and gave the RB another 100 targets.

As for Denver, yeah, they were 10-7 last year but there offensive stats were really sort of average. Not sure how that will play out this year, but i think Harvey is getting too much hype.

except it was never the harvey hype, it was always the broncos hype... the broncos was a prime projection for RB no matter who was going to get the job.... Lots of that is because pundits were predicting the broncos as one of their top sleeper teams...

so the question is not even about Harvey, it is whether the predictions on the broncos are correct... if it is, then i dont see why not Harvey...

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Broncos OL + Sean Payton calling the shot should = fantasy success even if they don't win a bunch more actual games

I think Bush and Ingram are the only RBs Payton has drafted higher than Harvey, take that for what you want

 

[TREFF]

Just to piggyback on what others are mentioning about the Harvey/Broncos stuff..

It's Sean Peyton,
it's the possibility of the next Kamara
it's the lack of competition- outside of Oakland Vegas and maybe Cleveland- it was the single best place of a rookie RB to land just in terms of opportunity if nothing else.

And if the offensive numbers last year were just kinda so-so/mediocre, we have to keep in mind, that was with a rookie QB, who had no decent RB, no decent TE, a mediocre OLline, and a WR corp filled with rookies/2nd year guys after Sutton.

Now Bo Nix is a sophomore, they (allegedly) have a real RB, they singed a solid TE, those young WR's- specifically Mims and Vele looked to be beginning to really blossom as the season drug on.
Those numbers SHOULD improve, at least a little