AL Central Discussion

[broncosmitty]

Lopez is just an incredibly difficult pitcher to figure out--- consistency is what holds him back- he can look so good. It would be interesting to see him with an organization and pitching development staff like the Guardians have. With his stuff he should have better numbers but it just seems somethign holds him back.

Yes. With his talent, we should at least expect Shane Bieber level production for Minnesota.

Other than Big CC, who are these contributions to professional pitching that Cleveland has made?

 

[WiggyRuss]

Yes. With his talent, we should at least expect Shane Bieber level production for Minnesota.

Other than Big CC, who are these contributions to professional pitching that Cleveland has made?

I think its consensus around the league that Cleveland is one of, if not the best organization at developing pitching.

There are a ton of examples of Cleveland trading for guys that are undervalued and turning them into more--- from Lee and Masterson a while back to Kluber to Clevinger to Bauer

Developing their own- from Sabathia to Bieber, Carrasco, now Bibee, Williams-- maybe one day Espino if he gets healthy. Even lesser guys like Civale and McKenzie,

In the bullpen too- Clase- an undervalued guy--- CAde Smith was undrafted and has been one of the best setup man in baseball.

Pitching Dependent Cleveland Guardians Dealing With Pitching Injuries

With opening day approaching, the timing couldn't be worse.

www.forbes.com

Guardians might be MLB's biggest surprise team for a surprising reason

Typically known for its excellent pitching development, Cleveland is off to a hot start thanks to an unexpected surge from the bats.

sports.yahoo.com

There has been no organization in baseball better at developing premier starting pitching over the past decade than the Cleveland Guardians. From Corey Kluber to Carlos Carrasco, Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, the team’s track record of developing talented arms has continued to be its strength. In recent years, the team’s success and its key to any postseason berth has often rested on the shoulders of its rotation.


How many organizations develop pitching like that? they basically sign no free agent starters or relievers--

2024- 5th in mlb in era
2023- 10th
2022- 6th
2021- 18th
2020- 2nd
2019- 4th
2018- 9th
2017- 1st
2016- 7th
2015- 8th

Last 10 years there is one year they have not been top 10 in ERA in the league while not signing one big time starter.

 

[WiggyRuss]

They def. need to restock- and started last year with Clemmey in high school- not a lot left beside Cantillo and hopefully some day Espino at the top.

Drafting 4-5 high level prep arms with the huge bonus pool they had will hopefully inject some future guys into the system- but of course those guys will take time.

Cantillo will hopefully be another great development story- great article from the Athletic on him a while back-

Justin Baughman was going to give the kid one more shot.

For roughly a year, the Padres scout had ping-ponged between the Pacific Northwest and Hawaii to get a look at the island state’s top amateur prospects. And every time he’d seen left-hander Joey Cantillo, Cantillo had been … fine. At 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, Cantillo was big. With his fastball coming in at 86 mph, his arm was not. Sometimes his command wavered. Sometimes he got hit. Rarely did he light up the radar gun.

Each look had left much to be desired, yet Baughman couldn’t quite push Cantillo from his mind. So he boarded a plane in the early spring of 2017 to sit behind home plate for one more start. What the veteran scout saw that day is burned in his mind. Cantillo threw two curveballs in the first inning, missing outside the zone with each. He never threw another breaking pitch the rest of the way. Using only his fastball, Cantillo struck out 18 batters in a seven-inning shutout. Hitters whiffed on his heater 32 times. The pitch was sitting 84-86 mph.

“It was the most dominant thing I’d ever seen,” Baughman says.

That summer, the Padres drafted the 17-year-old in the 16th round.

Six years later, Cantillo remains a well-kept secret. He’s pitched well at every stop of the minors, with a career 2.38 ERA as a professional. The fastball that flummoxed Hawaii high schoolers still darts over the top of minor-league barrels, even when it struggles to crest 90 mph. A split changeup dives below bats with a similar frequency. He’s added 25 pounds of lean muscle to his Division-I quarterback frame.

But most notably, Cantillo is throwing harder. Midway through the abbreviated 2020 season, the lefty was flipped to Cleveland as part of the package for starter Mike Clevinger, and it’s been a consequential change of scenery. Few organizations in baseball develop starters quite like the Guardians, and more specifically, rival scouts say few are as accomplished when it comes to developing velocity. Since joining Cleveland two and a half years ago, Cantillo has gone from sitting 89 mph to hitting 97 mph last spring. This past season with Double-A Akron, during which he posted a 1.93 ERA and struck out nearly 36 percent of his batters, he sat 92-95.

“I heard a lot about Cleveland’s pitching development. At the time, I was like, ‘We’ll see,’” Cantillo says. “Now looking back, it’s like wow, what a monumental thing that was for me in my career.”

 

[broncosmitty]

Carlos Carrasco I guess is an average pitcher for his career. Easy to forget with how awful he is now.

So him and Kluber besides the guys I mentioned then.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Carlos Carrasco I guess is an average pitcher for his career. Easy to forget with how awful he is now.

So him and Kluber besides the guys I mentioned then.

Cliff Lee was pretty good.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Regardless of López metrics or stats with a guy like him. He’s paid for the stretch run and playoffs. So if he can go on the heater starting around now. That’s what matters.

Twins rotation tho continues to be interesting as a whole. Where the potential is there to get solidly better for last two months, could get worse. Could stay roughly the same.

Gotta upgrade the 5 hole. Get someone. Paddack is hurt and just not effective.

Ryan and Ober are what they are. Can hold down the middle of rotation just fine just as they have. I don’t expect much movement either way.

SWR continues to be the interesting one. I keep expecting regression but it hasn’t come yet. 88 innings is a solid sample. His FIP lines up. His bad outings are usually a bad inning and maybe even pitch. Usually 2nd or 3rd time through. Next test would be repeat opponents.

But he’s helped make López struggles offset. To this point they’ve basically swapped roles so it’s essentially been a expectation wash.

So the biggest factor will be those two. If SWR can hold steady and López get hot. Huge boost. If they swap roles again and become who both were expected. We stay about the same. If regression hits SWR and López never figured it out, well then big trouble.

 

[broncosmitty]

Cliff Lee was pretty good.

For maybe a year in Cleveland.

He was better everywhere else.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Carlos Carrasco I guess is an average pitcher for his career. Easy to forget with how awful he is now.

So him and Kluber besides the guys I mentioned then.

Yeah the Cleveland pitching lab thing has turned more into an urban legend. I’ll be honest I actually believed it too. But esrlier this year I saw a Twitter breakdown showing it’s quite exaggerated(it was by a guardians fan too).

Sure they’ve had some really nice successes. But everything they touch far from turns to gold. And most of the successes were not guys that came out of nowhere.

If I were to point to more of a pitching lab with them it’s bullpen. This year it’s singlehandedly gotten them to where they are. And every year it seems they have 3 or 4 random guys in their pen dominating. And it’s always diff guys. Old, young, washed.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Regardless of López metrics or stats with a guy like him. He’s paid for the stretch run and playoffs. So if he can go on the heater starting around now. That’s what matters.

Twins rotation tho continues to be interesting as a whole. Where the potential is there to get solidly better for last two months, could get worse. Could stay roughly the same.

Gotta upgrade the 5 hole. Get someone. Paddack is hurt and just not effective.

Ryan and Ober are what they are. Can hold down the middle of rotation just fine just as they have. I don’t expect much movement either way.

SWR continues to be the interesting one. I keep expecting regression but it hasn’t come yet. 88 innings is a solid sample. His FIP lines up. His bad outings are usually a bad inning and maybe even pitch. Usually 2nd or 3rd time through. Next test would be repeat opponents.

But he’s helped make López struggles offset. To this point they’ve basically swapped roles so it’s essentially been a expectation wash.

So the biggest factor will be those two. If SWR can hold steady and López get hot. Huge boost. If they swap roles again and become who both were expected. We stay about the same. If regression hits SWR and López never figured it out, well then big trouble.

Lopez could def. start a heater at any time- his career numbers are extremely consistent and he will have to go on one to get there- and I expect him too---get to somewhere around a 3.80 ERA by the end of the year

his k/bb is the best in his career- the home runs seem to be the root cause this year.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Yeah the Cleveland pitching lab thing has turned more into an urban legend. I’ll be honest I actually believed it too. But esrlier this year I saw a Twitter breakdown showing it’s quite exaggerated(it was by a guardians fan too).

Sure they’ve had some really nice successes. But everything they touch far from turns to gold. And most of the successes were not guys that came out of nowhere.

If I were to point to more of a pitching lab with them it’s bullpen. This year it’s singlehandedly gotten them to where they are. And every year it seems they have 3 or 4 random guys in their pen dominating. And it’s always diff guys. Old, young, washed.

I think there is a reason why they are practically always top 10 in ERA despite never spending free agent $ on pitching.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Would be super sick if Tigers would trade Skubal by tomorrow afternoon

 

[WiggyRuss]

Carlos Carrasco I guess is an average pitcher for his career. Easy to forget with how awful he is now.

So him and Kluber besides the guys I mentioned then.

Carmona was top 5 in Cy Young Voting and an All STar- Salazar was top 5 in Cy Young Voting and an All Star- Bauer was an All Star and finished in the top 6 of Cy Young, Carrasco finished top 5 in Cy Young Voting, Masterson was an All Star

and of course Lee, Sabathia, Bieber and Kluber won a combined 5 Cy Youngs

 

[Shanemansj13]

For maybe a year in Cleveland.

He was better everywhere else.

Yeah there were a handful of SP trades that CLE made but that one definitely didn't favor CLE.

Kluber and Clevinger were nice.
non-SP I would say NYM and CLE both did good but NY is also paying Lindor a shit ton.

Even Bauer wasn't great for CLE. Puig was a dud.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Cleveland is trending down but still amazing they are where they are with this sickening rotation. If it wasn't for injuries/lack of depth major ready pitchers Carrasco would be done. I mean the back of the rotation is ugly. I said this awhile back that they needed a SP or two at the deadline. Skeptical it will happen but they have assets where they have depth at certain positions it is just about them wanting to pay and/or give up assets. It would be ashame not to acquire one bc I think this year they could least contend in the playoffs.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Carlos Carrasco I guess is an average pitcher for his career. Easy to forget with how awful he is now.

So him and Kluber besides the guys I mentioned then.

Developing wasn't the issue for the organization. He is right, they have developed guys very well and acquired some guys that were nothing in trades that became something but as far as trading them at the right time. It's a hit or miss...but that is why trading for prospects and hitting on them is very difficult. I think overall with how cheap the organization has been for years, they have done a pretty good job at acquiring and developing (mainly pitching). Hitters are more difficult to develop imo but definitely possible.

That is the strange thing. I have way more faith in their lineup now, even with inconsistency sometimes, then the pitching. A lot of injuries throughout the organization but the rotation is shit. It is embarrassing. The BP has carried them.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Biggest thing for the division down the stretch will be Guardians regression/trades to combat it.

They have a 4.5 game cushion but also the toughest schedule by far.

The offense has hit a massive regression as expected. Kwan was always gonna dip. But him, Ramriez(obviously) and Naylor all can definitely go back on a surge to help the offense some.

Noel’s plate discipline long term makes him extremely murky. But for this year as pitchers still adjust his power could be a huge 4th/5th option with Martinez who shows a lot of promise.

With Fry remembering who he is. The rest of the lineup is horrid now. Doesn’t matter who the choose day to day the pretty much all suck. Naylor Junior still has likeable potential tho.

The bullpen, simply is showing no signs of regressing tho. You keep thinking it can’t keep up this workload and effectiveness. But nothing has happened to prove it.

Without trades. The pen probably will still be enough to hold the division even with the bad rotation and lineup remembering who they are.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Guardians fans are banned from calling Gavin Williams any sort of top arm of the future for at least 2 months

3 run homer to javy Baez.

He’s lucky he’s not immediately sent to AA imo

López not an ace

Hanging on to Baez is fucking sad

Can join Williams in AA

 

[mr.hockey4242]

How is Joey Wentz still on the Tigers haha

 

[WiggyRuss]

López not an ace

Hanging on to Baez is fucking sad

Can join Williams in AA

I was the person saying that the Guardians cannot expect Williams to be a savior---- it never works out for a starting pitcher that is hurt for months and has no spring training and gets called up in the middle of the summer- its gonna take him 8-10 starts if you ask me just to get to being a solid 2nd year pitcher - being a savior is not happening this year.


Big ups to Lively tonight- I watched almost the entire game and sometimes I just do not understand how Lively does it with a fastball that is 90 mph---they just drafted 5 high school arms that pitch in the mid 90's--- Lively had a great changeup tonight and made some guys look silly. I dont know how long he can keep this up- but without him they would be in some serious trouble.

 

[fightinfunbags]

I was the person saying that the Guardians cannot expect Williams to be a savior---- it never works out for a starting pitcher that is hurt for months and has no spring training and gets called up in the middle of the summer- its gonna take him 8-10 starts if you ask me just to get to being a solid 2nd year pitcher - being a savior is not happening this year.


Big ups to Lively tonight- I watched almost the entire game and sometimes I just do not understand how Lively does it with a fastball that is 90 mph---they just drafted 5 high school arms that pitch in the mid 90's--- Lively had a great changeup tonight and made some guys look silly. I dont know how long he can keep this up- but without him they would be in some serious trouble.

How he does it is that the Phillies lineup has been broken now for weeks. Turner is the only guy hitting in July. Lively is whale shit with mediocre stuff. He’s a KBO pitcher who is pitching over his head.