A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Yes, but let's look at their 2014 seasons

Fielder- 178 PA- .247/.360/.360/.720
V-Mart- 641 PA- .335/.409/.565/.974

In 2014, Fielder was hurt, V-Mart was healthy, and V-Mart played exceptionally well (his 4.3 WAR is only hurt by the fact that he DH'ed so much, and [in my opinion] WAR underrates designated hitters. In 2015, Fielder was healthy, and Fielder played pretty well (again- his WAR was hurt by being a DH). V-Mart was hurt in 2015, and when he did play, he was exceptionally awful. Like horrifically awful.

So I'm going with Fielder having better production in 2015, but I would rather have V-Mart's contract. I would also be HIGHLY surprised if V-Mart puts up a WAR in the negatives again.

So, if we look at Fielder's inured season (a season in which he did bounce back from) and compare it to, literally, the best season of Martinez' career, Martinez looks better. If we look at Martinez' injured season and compare it to Fielder's healthy 2015 campaign, Fielder looks better.

The MARCEL projections, which are relatively simple and one of the more accurate systems, look at a player's last three years, weighting the more recent years slightly more.

2013-2015
VM - 1,794 PA - .298/.360/.460/.819
PF - 1,583 PA - .287/.369/.449/.818

Remarkably similar.

For what it's worth, PECOTA has these projections for the two in 2015:

VM - 608 - .288/.348/.428/.776
PF - 622 - .286/.379/.471/.850

Given Martinez age and the unknown of if he'll be able to bounce back from injury as well as Fielder did, I'm still not comfortable endorsing either contract over the other. You are, and that's cool. Maybe in three years we can revisit this and I can tell you that you were right.

 

[Omar 382]

So, if we look at Fielder's inured season (a season in which he did bounce back from) and compare it to, literally, the best season of Martinez' career, Martinez looks better. If we look at Martinez' injured season and compare it to Fielder's healthy 2015 campaign, Fielder looks better.

The MARCEL projections, which are relatively simple and one of the more accurate systems, look at a player's last three years, weighting the more recent years slightly more.

2013-2015
VM - 1,794 PA - .298/.360/.460/.819
PF - 1,583 PA - .287/.369/.449/.818

Remarkably similar.

For what it's worth, PECOTA has these projections for the two in 2015:

VM - 608 - .288/.348/.428/.776
PF - 622 - .286/.379/.471/.850

Given Martinez age and the unknown of if he'll be able to bounce back from injury as well as Fielder did, I'm still not comfortable endorsing either contract over the other. You are, and that's cool. Maybe in three years we can revisit this and I can tell you that you were right.

Yeah, it's surely no slam dunk. Who the hell knows. Fielder could slug .550 the next three years. But if I had to choose one (at least for the Phillies) I'd much rather have V-Mart's. I may also have PTSD from Howard's contract and am applying it to all aging first baseman/DH types

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Yes, we're talking about two different definitions of "wins." I'm talking about a win as related to WAR. You're talking about an actual game a team won. These two are not the same. For example, if you added up all the WAR for each Cub last year, it would not amount to 97 WAR.

Gotcha.

Given the fact that there are multiple formulas for WAR, I'm not a big fan of it. I'll look at it sometimes, but I don't spend a lot of time considering it.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Fangraphs doesn't have "calculations" of WAR against payroll (at least not that I know of).

I have to hope that on some level, they're able to connect the dots as to how their $/W formula relates to the actual money being spent in the real world.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

This assessment also highlights the importance of youth and the value of arbitration.

I'm an Indians fan. I'm painfully aware of that shit.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Its going to be hilarious when everyone that is on their bandwagon jump back off and the Tigers are still there..

When you say the Tigers will still be "there," are you referring to the basement of the AL Central? Because that's where they currently "are."

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

PLEASE!!! Could you tell my WHY? Could you tell me FUCKING WHY, any of you even bother responding to him? Are you guys the ones that actually believe that that groundhog can predict the coming of spring? Shit....I'd ask the damn groundhog what place the Royals will finish before I'd ask Vice.

I think some of you are as dumb as he is. You keep looking at your dog's ass and expecting to see ice cream come out!

This coming from the old fuck that responds to me more and has me as the subject of his posts more than anyone on this site.

I have to agree with Vice here, Iffy. The only one who might be more obsessed with MV than you would be @handicappers. It's kind of a tossup.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Every one knows curry couldn't hang with the bad boy pistons.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

So I guess this thread will be like this for much of the season? I guess I'll take it off my bookmarks and find someplace else.

That's fine, but I'm not sure the other threads will understand all your posts about MiamiVice.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

You want me gone iffy?

Bye... Im gone.

Stop. I've heard this one before. . .

 

[MiamiVice]

When you say the Tigers will still be "there," are you referring to the basement of the AL Central? Because that's where they currently "are."

Actually... they are not... The 2015 season is over and the 2016 is beginning.. everyone is at 0-0

 

[MiamiVice]

Stop. I've heard this one before. . .

You are right.. I can't leave you.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

You are right.. I can't leave you.

That's really great. So, any input on this bit:

Like I said he deserved the money.. but they should have gave it to him now instead of pushing it back to when he will not be worth a shit and won't even be able to catch.

Are you saying you'd prefer a 3yr/$72MM contract over the 5yr/$72MM contract that he got?

 

[MiamiVice]

That's really great. So, any input on this bit:

I am saying if should have been front loaded.. not back loaded... Because the odds of him being a catcher at the age of 30 are slim to none... and 13 mil for a back up 1st base with a OPS+ of under 90 isn't a very smart way to spend money.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I am saying if should have been front loaded.. not back loaded... Because the odds of him being a catcher at the age of 30 are slim to none... and 13 mil for a back up 1st base with a OPS+ of under 90 isn't a very smart way to spend money.

You should never again pretend to give a business lesson to anyone.

 

[MiamiVice]

You should never again pretend to give a business lesson to anyone.

LOL... Look.. I wouldn't have even given him the deal in the first place. It was a nice gesture.. but they owned the guy for peanuts and could have told his agent to kick rocks if they wanted... which would have been smart. They gambled on giving him the first contract and it paid off handsomely... This one isn't going to be such a good deal for them.

 

[broncosmitty]

Yes, we're talking about two different definitions of "wins." I'm talking about a win as related to WAR. You're talking about an actual game a team won. These two are not the same. For example, if you added up all the WAR for each Cub last year, it would not amount to 97 WAR.

What in the bloody fuck.....

 

[Omar 382]

What in the bloody fuck.....

Should I type slower?

 

[broncosmitty]

Should I type slower?

Do what you want.

WAR is the dungeons and dragons of the sports world to me.

 

[da55bums]

I am saying if should have been front loaded.. not back loaded... Because the odds of him being a catcher at the age of 30 are slim to none... and 13 mil for a back up 1st base with a OPS+ of under 90 isn't a very smart way to spend money.

your assessment of Sal not being a catcher by 30 yr old is based on what?

Mike Napoli even made it to 30.

Great defensive catchers ALWAYS make it past 30, give any examples of anyone not, ANY EXAMPLE.

I have no idea why I am even asking since your just saying it to stir the pot and once again have no info to base your decision on other than - Royals hater, lol.

Verlander, Miggy and Vmart's contracts are definitely worse, so I guess you have seen what bad contracts are.