A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I would agree Fielder's contract is worse, but let's not undermine how bad V-Mart was last season. My goodness

2015
PF - 693 PAs - .305/.378/.463/.841
VM - 485 PAs - .245/.301/.366/.667

Given the fact that Fielder performed quite well last year and Martinez was horrible, I am not comfortable saying that Fielder's contract is worse.

 

[Omar 382]

2015
PF - 693 PAs - .305/.378/.463/.841
VM - 485 PAs - .245/.301/.366/.667

Given the fact that Fielder performed quite well last year and Martinez was horrible, I am not comfortable saying that Fielder's contract is worse.

It's close because V-Mart was so awful last year, but I do expect some regression to the mean, where I think Fielder's longer and more expensive contract will be more crippling.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Plus were on the hook for 20mil or whatever it is for Fielder to play elsewhere.

Yep. Detroit will be paying Fielder $6MM per year for 16'-20', so from the Tigers' perspective, you can reduce the $66MM difference between the two contracts to $36MM.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

It's close because V-Mart was so awful last year, but I do expect some regression to the mean, where I think Fielder's longer and more expensive contract will be more crippling.

I think that's pretty speculative. Martinez is five years older.

I'm not saying that I think the Fielder contract is better. At this point, I'm not comfortable saying either one is particularly better than the other.

From the Tigers' perspective, I'd probably rather have Fielder right now.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Vmart and Fielder are on par with each other at the plate right now..

2015
PF - 693 PAs - .305/.378/.463/.841
VM - 485 PAs - .245/.301/.366/.667

We define "on par" differently.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

an extra 70 million for the last 3 years of fat boy's career...

Correction: $33MM for two years.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I wasn't really looking at WAR or it's value though. I was just saying that there is an average number of dollars teams typically pay for 1 Win, and that that value will (likely) only increase in the upcoming years

The Tigers paid, like, $2.2MM per win last year. Is that good?

 

[Omar 382]

The Tigers paid, like, $2.2MM per win last year. Is that good?

The average value of a win is around $7 million. So I think so!

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Seriously @da55bums... you call doug a homer.. but you gotta be a god damn uber homer if you think that Perez is going to be the starting catcher for the royals at the age of 30.. fuck.. i don't even think he will be at the age of 28.

He's proven himself to be pretty damn durable. What makes you believe he'll lose his starting gig in two years?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

The average value of a win is around $7 million.

I think you need to recheck your math.

 

[Omar 382]

I think that's pretty speculative. Martinez is five years older.

I'm not saying that I think the Fielder contract is better. At this point, I'm not comfortable saying either one is particularly better than the other.

From the Tigers' perspective, I'd probably rather have Fielder right now.

Sure, there's no doubt (well, I shouldn't say no doubt. I hardly doubt. Yeah let's go with hardly) that Fielder will be more productive in 2016 than V-Mart. But we're not looking solely at production

 

[Omar 382]

I think you need to recheck your math.

Not according to this analysis
The Cost of a Win in the 2014 Off-Season | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[Omar 382]

Even if you control the effects of the large 8, 9, and 10 year contracts by looking at the median, you're still at $5.9 mil. And this number has probably increased a tiny bit since 2014

 

[Omar 382]

The Tigers dollar amount per win is low because they got great production from relatively extremely cheap players; namely, J.D. Martinez and Yoenis Cespedes (while he was with them)

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Not according to this analysis
The Cost of a Win in the 2014 Off-Season | FanGraphs Baseball

Thank you for the link. I like FanGraphs, and I'll read that later. I assume we can get into a semantic discussion regarding the definition of "cost of a win."

I'm an Occam's Razor kind of guy. My definition of what a win costs would be how much a team paid out in payroll divided by their number of wins.

It's back-of-the-napkin stuff, but combined MLB payroll in 2015 was $3,741.1MM, 30 teams x 81 wins = 2,430 wins. $3,741.1MM / 2,430 wins = $1.5MM per win.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

The Tigers dollar amount per win is low because they got great production from relatively extremely cheap players; namely, J.D. Martinez and Yoenis Cespedes (while he was with them)

By the way I calculated cost per win, the Tigers' cost/win was not low. Likely the highest in baseball.

I would assume FanGraphs' calculations would indicate the same. If not, I don't see what its merit is.

 

[Omar 382]

2015
PF - 693 PAs - .305/.378/.463/.841
VM - 485 PAs - .245/.301/.366/.667

We define "on par" differently.

Yes, but let's look at their 2014 seasons

Fielder- 178 PA- .247/.360/.360/.720
V-Mart- 641 PA- .335/.409/.565/.974

In 2014, Fielder was hurt, V-Mart was healthy, and V-Mart played exceptionally well (his 4.3 WAR is only hurt by the fact that he DH'ed so much, and [in my opinion] WAR underrates designated hitters. In 2015, Fielder was healthy, and Fielder played pretty well (again- his WAR was hurt by being a DH). V-Mart was hurt in 2015, and when he did play, he was exceptionally awful. Like horrifically awful.

So I'm going with Fielder having better production in 2015, but I would rather have V-Mart's contract. I would also be HIGHLY surprised if V-Mart puts up a WAR in the negatives again.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Like I said he deserved the money.. but they should have gave it to him now instead of pushing it back to when he will not be worth a shit and won't even be able to catch. A guy with a history of concussions, that plays catcher, and is 240 lb isn't someone you invest in long term unless they are an above average hitter.. he isn't.

Are you saying you'd prefer a 3yr/$72MM contract over the 5yr/$72MM contract that he got?

 

[Omar 382]

Thank you for the link. I like FanGraphs, and I'll read that later. I assume we can get into a semantic discussion regarding the definition of "cost of a win."

I'm an Occam's Razor kind of guy. My definition of what a win costs would be how much a team paid out in payroll divided by their number of wins.

It's back-of-the-napkin stuff, but combined MLB payroll in 2015 was $3,741.1MM, 30 teams x 81 wins = 2,430 wins. $3,741.1MM / 2,430 wins = $1.5MM per win.

Yes, we're talking about two different definitions of "wins." I'm talking about a win as related to WAR. You're talking about an actual game a team won. These two are not the same. For example, if you added up all the WAR for each Cub last year, it would not amount to 97 WAR.

 

[Omar 382]

By the way I calculated cost per win, the Tigers' cost/win was not low. Likely the highest in baseball.

I would assume FanGraphs' calculations would indicate the same. If not, I don't see what its merit is.

Fangraphs doesn't have "calculations" of WAR against payroll (at least not that I know of). Their use lies instead in determining if contracts are justified or not. For example, let's look at Fielder last year. He had a 1.6 WAR. Using 7 million dollars/win, we would see he should be worth 11.2 million dollars. In reality, he made 24 million dollars. Bad contract. On the flip side, look at J.D. Martinez. He had a 5 win season, which amounts to a value around 35 million dollars. Yet he only made 3 million dollars from arbitration. He was a steal.

This assessment also highlights the importance of youth and the value of arbitration. Martinez has put up a combined WAR of 9 the past two seasons (amounting to a value around 63 million dollars), yet, because he has not reached 6 years of service in MLB and still is only eligible for arbitration, he has only cost the Tigers $3.5 million those two years. That's a $59.5 million dollar steal!