A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[BigRedMoe]

Fangraphs is projecting the Royals to only win 79 games this year.... same prediction as last year. Should I be excited by this prediction?

 

[MiamiVice]

Fangraphs is projecting the Royals to only win 79 games this year.... same prediction as last year. Should I be excited by this prediction?

If you get excited by what clearly isn't a very good starting rotation and a bullpen that isn't as good as it has been the last 2 years... then by all means... jump for joy.

 

[BigRedMoe]

If you get excited by what clearly isn't a very good starting rotation and a bullpen that isn't as good as it has been the last 2 years... then by all means... jump for joy.

I'm feeling pretty confident now that we have Fangraphs and your endorsement.

 

[Howie115]

I'm feeling pretty confident now that we have Fangraphs and your endorsement.

LOL... All you need is for Doug to project the Royals to finish last, and you'll have the trifecta.

 

[MiamiVice]

Marlins just signed Chen to a 5 yr 80 mil contract

 

[Howie115]

Marlins just signed Chen to a 5 yr 80 mil contract

Great signing at that price. Career 3.72 ERA in the AL ... likely lower 3's in the NL.

 

[MiamiVice]

Great signing at that price. Career 3.72 ERA in the AL ... likely lower 3's in the NL.

Marlins stadium is a HUGE pitchers park. Bigger than Comerica. One of the hardest parks to hit a HR in over the entire league... they are moving the fences in a bit this offseason.. but they said they are going to keep it very pitcher friend.y... If Chen can have a 3.34 ERA in the tiny ass stadium in baltimore... he might be a cy young candidate in miami.

 

[MiamiVice]

18 of Chen's 28 HR he gave up came in that bandbox in baltimore...

 

[MiamiVice]

Fun fact.. the Marlins got a massive TV deal to show their games in Japan because of Ichiro's presence on the team. That deal alone probably pays for this contract.

 

[BigRedMoe]

Just got on the Fangraphs site... they predict the whole Division to kind of suck...

Indians- 85-77
ChiSox- 81-81
Tigers- 79-83
Royals- 79-83
twins- 78-84

Depth Charts » Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[Howie115]

Marlins stadium is a HUGE pitchers park. Bigger than Comerica. One of the hardest parks to hit a HR in over the entire league... they are moving the fences in a bit this offseason.. but they said they are going to keep it very pitcher friend.y... If Chen can have a 3.34 ERA in the tiny ass stadium in baltimore... he might be a cy young candidate in miami.

Yovani Gallardo with similar ERAs in a similar ballpark (Arlington). I suspect he will sign for something in the same range.

 

[Howie115]

Just got on the Fangraphs site... they predict the whole Division to kind of suck...

Indians- 85-77
ChiSox- 81-81
Tigers- 79-83
Royals- 79-83
twins- 78-84

7 games difference from top-to-bottom. We know that won't happen. They're basically picking no one and everyone.

 

[MiamiVice]

Yovani Gallardo with similar ERAs in a similar ballpark (Arlington). I suspect he will sign for something in the same range.

Gallardo scares me.. his velocity has been dropping like a rock the last few years.

 

[MiamiVice]

Just got on the Fangraphs site... they predict the whole Division to kind of suck...

Indians- 85-77
ChiSox- 81-81
Tigers- 79-83
Royals- 79-83
twins- 78-84

Depth Charts » Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball

To be honest... I don't see a real dominant team in the AL at all. The AL is going to be a crap shoot.

 

[BigRedMoe]

Just got on the Fangraphs site... they predict the whole Division to kind of suck...

Indians- 85-77
ChiSox- 81-81
Tigers- 79-83
Royals- 79-83
twins- 78-84

Depth Charts » Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball

So Fangraphs is essentially making a Cubs-Red Sox WS prediction. Well, if my team can't be there... I would watch that almost as closely. Sox are the only other team I've ever rooted for and it's hard not to have a soft spot for the Cubbies.

 

[Howie115]

Gallardo scares me.. his velocity has been dropping like a rock the last few years.

Gallardo's 4-seam fastball velocities at PitchFX:

2011 avg=92.6 / max=95.5
2012 avg=91.7 / max=94.8
2013 avg=90.7 / max=94.0
2014 avg=91.3 / max=94.2
2015 avg=90.5 / max=93.9

Decline is there, but isn't alarming. He's offset it by throwing more cutters the last couple of seasons. ERA has gone down in each of the last three seasons (4.18, 3.51, 3.42) even with a move to Texas last year.

He'll be 30 when the season starts, so I might not go 5 seasons on a contract. But I could easily see him getting $16 mill over 3-4 years.

 

[MiamiVice]

So Fangraphs is essentially making a Cubs-Red Sox WS prediction. Well, if my team can't be there... I would watch that almost as closely. Sox are the only other team I've ever rooted for and it's hard not to have a soft spot for the Cubbies.

My prediction is Cubs vs Yankees with a Giants vs Astros being my second guess.

But I think the Mets are going to land another free agent like Upton or Cespedes... and that would change everything for me.

 

[BigRedMoe]

My prediction is Cubs vs Yankees with a Giants vs Astros being my second guess.

But I think the Mets are going to land another free agent like Upton or Cespedes... and that would change everything for me.

Can't disagree on the Mets. That rotation is scary good. Surprised Cespedes hasn't signed somewhere yet.

 

[MiamiVice]

Gallardo's 4-seam fastball velocities at PitchFX:

2011 avg=92.6 / max=95.5
2012 avg=91.7 / max=94.8
2013 avg=90.7 / max=94.0
2014 avg=91.3 / max=94.2
2015 avg=90.5 / max=93.9

Decline is there, but isn't alarming. He's offset it by throwing more cutters the last couple of seasons. ERA has gone down in each of the last three seasons (4.18, 3.51, 3.42) even with a move to Texas last year.

He'll be 30 when the season starts, so I might not go 5 seasons on a contract. But I could easily see him getting $16 mill over 3-4 years.

I agree he will probably get 16 mil a yr.. but if I was a gm he would scare the shit out of me.

 

[MiamiVice]

Can't disagree on the Mets. That rotation is scary good. Surprised Cespedes hasn't signed somewhere yet.

He wants to many years and to much money. I think the market dried up for 100+ mil contracts.