A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[SlinkyRedfoot]

one of them are predicting a team that is worse in every team batting statistic to score more runs than anyone else.

I assume you're talking about the BP projection. As I pointed out, the Indians and Tigers projected rate stats are essentially the same.

It's not nearly the big deal you're making it out to be.

 

[MiamiVice]

Even if one DID put any faith in the prognostications in publication, you can glean next to nothing from the group of five posted by Slinky.

The Vegas odds basically reflect where they think BETTORS will see the team's finishing. Otherwise, they mean nothing, either.

Agreed. There is no way you can project a season. There are to many variables. Its totally pointless. The team that starts in April will not be the team that finishes the year. You can't predict injuries very well.. nor can you predict for breakouts and players that under perform greatly. The entire thing is nothing more than fodder for sports talk radio and people on chat forums.

 

[MiamiVice]

I assume you're talking about the BP projection. As I pointed out, the Indians and Tigers projected rate stats are essentially the same.

It's not nearly the big deal you're making it out to be.

I don't really give a shit if they are essentially the same or not... How can a team with lesser (or equal) BA/OBP/SLG score 20 more runs? Its a stupid projection no matter how you want to look at it and you know it.

 

[MiamiVice]

If you can explain how a team projected to hit less, get on base less, and hit less HR/extra base hits, can score more runs that a team they are projecting to have better stats... I would admire your debate skills.

 

[Howie115]

Agreed. There is no way you can project a season. There are to many variables. Its totally pointless. The team that starts in April will not be the team that finishes the year. You can't predict injuries very well.. nor can you predict for breakouts and players that under perform greatly. The entire thing is nothing more than fodder for sports talk radio and people on chat forums.

Vegas sets the win numbers where they think they will get equal money on both the over and the under. Thus, the previous season's World Champion (KC in this case) is always inflated by a few games, because oddsmakers know there are enough bettors who will take the over based primarily on the previous season.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

The Vegas odds basically reflect where they think BETTORS will see the teams finishing. Otherwise, they mean nothing, either.

Troof. They set the lines based on what they think will split the bets down the middle, not who they think will win.

 

[Howie115]

Troof. They set the lines based on what they think will split the bets down the middle, not who they think will win.

Yep, read my post above yours. Great minds.........

 

[MiamiVice]

The think that makes the baseball prospectus projection even funnier is they have the White Sox scoring more runs than the Tigers too.. with even worse team offensive stats.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I don't really give a shit if they are essentially the same or not... How can a team with lesser (or equal) BA/OBP/SLG score 20 more runs? Its a stupid projection no matter how you want to look at it and you know it.

OPS was .004 different. The Indians won't be as slow on the base paths. That would be a perfectly reasonable explanation. I realize you don't understand it, and that's ok.

 

[MiamiVice]

Vegas sets the win numbers where they think they will get equal money on both the over and the under. Thus, the previous season's World Champion (KC in this case) is always inflated by a few games, because oddsmakers know there are enough bettors who will take the over based primarily on the previous season.

I would take the under all day long on the Royals.. They aren't getting to 87 wins. Its not happening. In fact.. I may place that bet right now.

 

[MiamiVice]

OPS was .004 different. The Indians won't be as slow on the base paths. That would be a perfectly reasonable explanation. I realize you don't understand it, and that's ok.

LOL.. so a team that gets on base less.. and hits less extra base hits.. is going to score 20 more runs because of having a few faster guys? Really? Just admit that the baseball prospectus projections are retarded dude. You don't need to argue with me on everything.

 

[MiamiVice]

Want to explain their thinking with the White Sox scoring more runs with even shittier team stats?

 

[Howie115]

I would take the under all day long on the Royals.. They aren't getting to 87 wins. Its not happening. In fact.. I may place that bet right now.

I tend to agree. If they set wins for a reigning World Series champ at 87, the oddsmakers probably truly think about 84 wins, but they know there are enough bettors who put too much stock on the previous season, that they can still get plenty of "over" money at 87.

I'd say the reverse is true, and they are purposely setting the Tigers lower because they finished in last. But the Tigers also won four straight ALC titles before 2015, so maybe they are only bumping them down 1 or 2 from their actual estimate.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

The think that makes the baseball prospectus projection even funnier is they have the White Sox scoring more runs than the Tigers too.. with even worse team offensive stats.

OPS difference is a more significant .010, but the RS differential is less significant, only 4 runs.

The difference is the runners.

 

[MiamiVice]

OPS difference is a more significant .010, but the RS differential is less significant, only 4 runs.

The difference is the runners.

Jesus Christ. You just can't admit that its ridiculous can you?

 

[MiamiVice]

If I was trying to argue that its logical for a team that hits less, gets on base less, and hits less extra base hits and HR would score more runs... Slinky would be all over that shit.

 

[MiamiVice]

The Tigers lineup is going to have 6 average or above base runners. The only 3 guys that are below average on the bases are Miggy, Vmart and Castellanos.

The Indians are going to have 4 below average base runners in the opening day lineup in Santana, Napoli, Urshela, and Gomes. Chisenhall isn't that great either and could be argued he isn't average either. So once again.. tell me where the speed difference is?

Tigers average or above average base runners
Iglesias
Kinsler
Upton
JD Martinez
Maybin/Gose
McCann

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

If I was trying to argue that its logical for a team that hits less, gets on base less, and hits less extra base hits and HR would score more runs... Slinky would be all over that shit.

You asked how it could be explained. I explained it to you. You can't or won't understand the explanation.

From a pragmatic standpoint, there is virtually no difference between the Indians and the Tigers' rate projections, and there is virtually no difference between the Tigers' and White Sox' RS projections.

 

[MiamiVice]

You asked how it could be explained. I explained it to you. You can't or won't understand the explanation.

From a pragmatic standpoint, there is virtually no difference between the Indians and the Tigers' rate projections, and there is virtually no difference between the Tigers' and White Sox' RS projections.

Its not a sane explanation. Its easy to say the Tigers won't have as much speed.. but when it breaks down 1-9.. they actually have better base running than the Indians do.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

If I was trying to argue that its logical for a team that hits less, gets on base less, and hits less extra base hits and HR would score more runs... Slinky would be all over that shit.

Prepare to have your mind blown:

LAD 2015 - .250/.326/.413/.739 - 667 RS
TEX 2015 - .257/.325/.413/.739 - 751 RS

There's two teams with essentially identical rate stats, yet one scored eighty-four more runs.

HOW COULD THAT EVER HAPPEN?!?!