50 in 50?

[elocomotive]

How annoying was it today that Ovie had such an awesome game and all of the talk today (aside from two Junks segments) was RGInactive. Ugh. Sometimes I hate this town.

I rarely hear the Junks live. I usually listen to them later or the next day on the Podcast, but that's always the case. I bet the breakdown is one Caps' segment for every 20-25 Skins' segments. To be honest, I skip most of the Skins' segments these days and listen to them talk about random stuff, like what Cakes/EB are paranoid about this week, Lurch's nubbiest thing of the week, etc.

It wouldn't be so bad if talking about the Skins for the past 10 years weren't so annoying and terrible - Haynesworth, knee injuries, McNub, coaching changes, etc. Ugh... what a terrible sports town.

 

[BlueWolfZero]

50 in 50 would be great, but he is at the point in his career when regular season stats just don't cut it anymore. Until he stops disappearing in the spring, none of it really matters.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

31 goals in 58 playoff games would be what I characterize as disappearing.

 

[Forty_Sixand2]

Yeah, Ovie has been a huge playoff problem for us.


Whatver happened with the sarcasm font?

 

[IPostedWhat]

31 goals in 58 playoff games would be what I characterize as disappearing.

 

[elocomotive]

50 in 50 would be great, but he is at the point in his career when regular season stats just don't cut it anymore. Until he stops disappearing in the spring, none of it really matters.

61 points and a +9 in 58 games is disappearing? He's 5th in ppg and 1st in gpg in the playoffs among active players.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

31 goals in 58 playoff games would not be what I characterize as disappearing.

FTFM.

 

[Wingingit]

He'll get close, 49 in 50.

 

[pixburgher66]

If there's a guy that could do it it, it's OV, but I don't think it happens. Teams should *probably* catch on to his PP tactics. His shooting percentage on the PP from the left circle is beyond ridiculous.

 

[Comeds]

If there's a guy that could do it it, it's OV, but I don't think it happens. Teams should *probably* catch on to his PP tactics. His shooting percentage on the PP from the left circle is beyond ridiculous.

I don't think he does it but his game seems a lot different to me this season. He's often standing in the goal crease deflecting shots and going after rebounds this year. I just don't remember that from before.

 

[IPostedWhat]

his game seems a lot different to me this season.

It's the haircut.

Just LOOK at that focus!

 

[Darkstone42]

One notable difference I'm seeing this year and towards the end of last - OV is putting the puck on net.

When he went through that cold spell from 2010-2012, he was frequently missing the net with his shots. I don't know if he was being too fine with it, hesitating too much, or if the switch to the opposite wing has helped, but he's really putting a high percentage of his shots on the net right now. The tying goal from last night is a good example - not a great shot (should have been stopped), but you put it on net and things sometimes happen.

Here's some quick math on OV's potential season...

Based on Ovechkin's shooting pace, if he's healthy and plays in the Caps' remaining 51 games, he should shoot about 270 shots at his current pace.

If he puts them in at 16.7% like he has been, that would mean a 71-goal season.
Even if he put them in at just under his career average at 12%, that would still be a 58-goal season.

70 goals? Now that would be special.

If you want to compare 70 goals today to the year Gretzky scored 92, it would be the equivalent of scoring roughly 105 goals by comparison using a 3-year average today and then.

It's difficult to predict good regressions in this case because Ovechkin may have made adjustments which have resulted in his increased shooting pace and scoring percentage, but I think it's reasonable to expect him to land somewhere in the vicinity of 400 shots and a 15% scoring percentage on a full season based on this season, career averages, and trends in recent seasons.

That would yield him 60 goals, a very impressive season.

I do, however, expect significant error in the shots projection (scoring percentage should be pretty close, I imagine). Honestly, anywhere from about 375 to about 500 shots is a reasonable range, which makes his projected goals range between 56 and 75 goals. There is a statistically reasonable chance Ovechkin scores 75 goals this year.

 

[elocomotive]

It's difficult to predict good regressions in this case because Ovechkin may have made adjustments which have resulted in his increased shooting pace and scoring percentage, but I think it's reasonable to expect him to land somewhere in the vicinity of 400 shots and a 15% scoring percentage on a full season based on this season, career averages, and trends in recent seasons.

That would yield him 60 goals, a very impressive season.

I do, however, expect significant error in the shots projection (scoring percentage should be pretty close, I imagine). Honestly, anywhere from about 375 to about 500 shots is a reasonable range, which makes his projected goals range between 56 and 75 goals. There is a statistically reasonable chance Ovechkin scores 75 goals this year.

Darkstats has spoken.

Seems like about the likely range - will be interesting to see which ends he finishes on.

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

Would love to see it, but think he will only have 38 at the time.

 

[Kevin12773]

50 in 50 would be great, but he is at the point in his career when regular season stats just don't cut it anymore. Until he stops disappearing in the spring, none of it really matters.

Actually it's Backstrom & Green and the rest of the caps that disappear in the spring, not Ovechkin.
Just sayin.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

Actually it's Backstrom & Green and the rest of the caps that disappear in the spring, not Ovechkin.
Just sayin.

Don't you know anything?

When you have no knowledge about something NHL related, just blame the Russian guy.

 

[Kevin12773]

Don't you know anything?

When you have no knowledge about something NHL related, just blame the Russian guy.

My bad! I forgot the golden rule... North American players GOOD, Euros are TRASH

 

[sabresfaninthesouth]

Don't you know anything?

When you have no knowledge about something NHL related, just blame the Russian guy.

My bad! I forgot the golden rule... North American players GOOD, Euros are TRASH

I think we need a Don Cherry smiley.

 

[elocomotive]

My bad! I forgot the golden rule... North American players GOOD, Euros are TRASH

LOL - nice!

That's exactly why the Red Wings have never won.... any... damn it!

 

[Forty_Sixand2]

Darkstats has spoken.

Seems like about the likely range - will be interesting to see which ends he finishes on.

I just adjusted DS's model for hair length, fatness and an interaction term of hair length*fatness and the new number is 82.6 with a 95%CI of 41-1,395.