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2024 Trade Deadline

tzill

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He was a legit superstar 2 years ago and now can’t hold on to a job. Dude has all the talent in the world, but he has a $0.02 head.
Can't just be that though. That's as precipitous a two year drop as I've ever seen. He's gone from All Star to DFA...gotta be something physical as well.
 

calsnowskier

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Can't just be that though. That's as precipitous a two year drop as I've ever seen. He's gone from All Star to DFA...gotta be something physical as well.
Belli’s production drop was more dramatic. But by most accounts, he is a good dude, so teams stuck with him. Anderson is a cancer, so teams are not as apt to work with him to get him through it.
 

calsnowskier

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My gut agrees with this. But it won’t happen.

I actually want to do a little study of previous champions, and how the teams were constructed. Does trading for prospects actually work out for teams? How many “sells” actually do anything for the selling teams, long term? I can’t think of many deadline prospect trades that actually paid off for the team getting the prospects. “Recently”, the only one I can think of is the Spanks getting Torres (and others) for Aroldis Chapman back in ‘16. But the Spanks haven’t won a championship with Torres.

Maybe the Phil’s trading Ryne Sandburg? The Cubs never won with Ryno and that trade happened in January, not July/August.

Wheeler in ‘11? Wheeler took a LONG time to become a stud, and arguably, it wasn’t with the Mets. And the Mets never won with Wheeler.

Reynolds to the Bucs? No wins and off-season trade.

I have to be missing some BIG ones, right?
 

msgkings322

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My gut agrees with this. But it won’t happen.

I actually want to do a little study of previous champions, and how the teams were constructed. Does trading for prospects actually work out for teams? How many “sells” actually do anything for the selling teams, long term? I can’t think of many deadline prospect trades that actually paid off for the team getting the prospects. “Recently”, the only one I can think of is the Spanks getting Torres (and others) for Aroldis Chapman back in ‘16. But the Spanks haven’t won a championship with Torres.

Maybe the Phil’s trading Ryne Sandburg? The Cubs never won with Ryno and that trade happened in January, not July/August.

Wheeler in ‘11? Wheeler took a LONG time to become a stud, and arguably, it wasn’t with the Mets. And the Mets never won with Wheeler.

Reynolds to the Bucs? No wins and off-season trade.

I have to be missing some BIG ones, right?
You are...most of the smaller market teams (and some big market ones) that build winners use a similar blueprint: tear it down, sell everything, stack prospects, wait 3 years until they start to emerge, add a couple key FAs, and win. Astros, Cubs, Nationals, Rangers, etc There are lots of examples. And there are others that do the same thing and get good but don't win a title, because titles are pretty random. This is for sure a tried and true method for building a contender if you aren't a powerhouse like the Dodgers who can buy whoever and also spend a lot on their farm system.

The White Sox did the same thing, with Chris Sale being the big one at the time, they traded him and a lot of other established players for prospects, sucked for a couple years, then had a contention window (which didn't work out very well but could have, they were pretty good for a couple years). Now they are starting the cycle again, trading Cease and soon to trade Roberts and Crochet, stack prospects, suck for a few years, then hopefully contend for a few. The Giants have never really been that kind of team, don't need to be, likely will not.
 

calsnowskier

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You are...most of the smaller market teams (and some big market ones) that build winners use a similar blueprint: tear it down, sell everything, stack prospects, wait 3 years until they start to emerge, add a couple key FAs, and win. Astros, Cubs, Nationals, Rangers, etc There are lots of examples. And there are others that do the same thing and get good but don't win a title, because titles are pretty random. This is for sure a tried and true method for building a contender if you aren't a powerhouse like the Dodgers who can buy whoever and also spend a lot on their farm system.

The White Sox did the same thing, with Chris Sale being the big one at the time, they traded him and a lot of other established players for prospects, sucked for a couple years, then had a contention window (which didn't work out very well but could have, they were pretty good for a couple years). Now they are starting the cycle again, trading Cease and soon to trade Roberts and Crochet, stack prospects, suck for a few years, then hopefully contend for a few. The Giants have never really been that kind of team, don't need to be, likely will not.
I am not factoring in the ”Tank Strategy”. The Giants will never do that (intentionally).

I am talking about trading an MLB asset for prospect/s and one of the acquired prospects actually becoming a stud.

The Giants have a cash cow ballpark and next to the Rangers, they have the largest uncontested market in the bigs. They should never have to do a tank/rebuild. They should be able to stand and trade punches (to an extent) with the Spanks and doggies.

Edit:
Wow, that was inaccurate. Philly, Atlanta, Houston and Boston (and Dallas) all are larger than the BA, market-wise…
 
Last edited:

LHG

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My gut agrees with this. But it won’t happen.

I actually want to do a little study of previous champions, and how the teams were constructed. Does trading for prospects actually work out for teams? How many “sells” actually do anything for the selling teams, long term? I can’t think of many deadline prospect trades that actually paid off for the team getting the prospects. “Recently”, the only one I can think of is the Spanks getting Torres (and others) for Aroldis Chapman back in ‘16. But the Spanks haven’t won a championship with Torres.

Maybe the Phil’s trading Ryne Sandburg? The Cubs never won with Ryno and that trade happened in January, not July/August.

Wheeler in ‘11? Wheeler took a LONG time to become a stud, and arguably, it wasn’t with the Mets. And the Mets never won with Wheeler.

Reynolds to the Bucs? No wins and off-season trade.

I have to be missing some BIG ones, right?
1993 the year the Giants won 103 and didn't make the payoffs. :pout:
Well another example is the Braves in 1993 trading for Griff and giving up not quite top prospects.:mad2: Grrrr San Diego had a few more days to press the braves for a better prospect UGH.:mad2: Doing so might well have had the Giants making the playoffs as the Braves batting order was good but needed one more Bat. Will never forgive the Pads for that deal on that day. Plus the guys they traded for ended up basically busts. So for nothing as it turned out ruined a great season for watching the Giants.
P.S. history would have been different if Mike Jackson the the lefthanded set up man hadn't gotten injured covering first base. I think the over work for one of my Favorite Giants Rob Beck (who amazingly was just as good if not better against lefthanders) shortened his peak. top-gun relief and I could see the chance he would have been great longer and might have been Hall Worthy. After Beck left at least he got the chance to have one more big year. Loved the guy.
 

calsnowskier

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1993 the year the Giants won 103 and didn't make the payoffs. :pout:
Well another example is the Braves in 1993 trading for Griff and giving up not quite top prospects.:mad2: Grrrr San Diego had a few more days to press the braves for a better prospect UGH.:mad2: Doing so might well have had the Giants making the playoffs as the Braves batting order was good but needed one more Bat. Will never forgive the Pads for that deal on that day. Plus the guys they traded for ended up basically busts. So for nothing as it turned out ruined a great season for watching the Giants.
P.S. history would have been different if Mike Jackson the the lefthanded set up man hadn't gotten injured covering first base. I think the over work for one of my Favorite Giants Rob Beck (who amazingly was just as good if not better against lefthanders) shortened his peak. top-gun relief and I could see the chance he would have been great longer and might have been Hall Worthy. After Beck left at least he got the chance to have one more big year. Loved the guy.
That is all supporting my hypothesis, though. I am proposing that trading MLB talent for prospects at the deadline RARELY works out on its own. The strategy works, of course, thanks to the associated losses that come with the trade, improving the draft position of the selling team. But the trades themselves, in a vacuum, SELDOM work out for the selling teams.
 

msgkings322

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That is all supporting my hypothesis, though. I am proposing that trading MLB talent for prospects at the deadline RARELY works out on its own. The strategy works, of course, thanks to the associated losses that come with the trade, improving the draft position of the selling team. But the trades themselves, in a vacuum, SELDOM work out for the selling teams.
That can't be right, in the examples I mentioned many of the prospects they got emerged as good players, which is why the strategy worked. It wasn't just the draftees.
 

calsnowskier

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That can't be right, in the examples I mentioned many of the prospects they got emerged as good players, which is why the strategy worked. It wasn't just the draftees.
You didn’t give any PLAYER examples. You provided TEAM examples. And those teams won because of players they drafted (or signed internationally), not because they got a stud prospect who became a centerpiece.

I am open to be shown I am wrong. I am not proposing this as a fact, I am proposing it as a theory. Show me PLAYER examples that I am missing.
 

calsnowskier

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Fernando Tatis Jr is an example of a stud prospect traded at the deadline. But the Padres have not done anything with that acquisition…
 

calsnowskier

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Dansby Swanson…

Marcus Semian? It took him a long time, and multiple team changes to establish himself.
 

msgkings322

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You didn’t give any PLAYER examples. You provided TEAM examples. And those teams won because of players they drafted (or signed internationally), not because they got a stud prospect who became a centerpiece.

I am open to be shown I am wrong. I am not proposing this as a fact, I am proposing it as a theory. Show me PLAYER examples that I am missing.
I'm certain there were players that fire sale teams received that became studs, I just follow the Giants mostly so I'd have to go look LOL

Dylan Cease is an example of a good player the White Sox traded for. You mentioned Zach Wheeler. The Cubs traded for Rizzo, a key piece of their title team, he was drafted by the Red Sox. Surely there are others.

You do make a good point, it's as much about who you draft with the good position while you suck as it is about the prospects you get in a trade. Which may be why not every team does it that way, since you have to be good at drafting anyway why not make that the main method of getting good players?
 

calsnowskier

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I'm certain there were players that fire sale teams received that became studs, I just follow the Giants mostly so I'd have to go look LOL

Dylan Cease is an example of a good player the White Sox traded for. You mentioned Zach Wheeler. The Cubs traded for Rizzo, a key piece of their title team, he was drafted by the Red Sox. Surely there are others.

You do make a good point, it's as much about who you draft with the good position while you suck as it is about the prospects you get in a trade. Which may be why not every team does it that way, since you have to be good at drafting anyway why not make that the main method of getting good players?
Rizzo was not a deadline deal. I am looking at specifically deadline firesales.
 

msgkings322

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Rizzo was not a deadline deal. I am looking at specifically deadline firesales.
OK that's even more specific then, I was thinking about the general strategy of a fire sale (offseason or not) to get prospects who help you be contenders. It does work, we see it happen. Just would need to research specific names to go with the teams LOL.
 

calsnowskier

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OK that's even more specific then, I was thinking about the general strategy of a fire sale (offseason or not) to get prospects who help you be contenders. It does work, we see it happen. Just would need to research specific names to go with the teams LOL.
Rizzo was also a prospect 4 prospect trade. He was traded (primarily) for Andrew Cashner.
 

tzill

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I am not factoring in the ”Tank Strategy”. The Giants will never do that (intentionally).

I am talking about trading an MLB asset for prospect/s and one of the acquired prospects actually becoming a stud.

The Giants have a cash cow ballpark and next to the Rangers, they have the largest uncontested market in the bigs. They should never have to do a tank/rebuild. They should be able to stand and trade punches (to an extent) with the Spanks and doggies.

Edit:
Wow, that was inaccurate. Philly, Atlanta, Houston and Boston (and Dallas) all are larger than the BA, market-wise…
How about McCutchen for Reynolds, just off the top of my head.
 

calsnowskier

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How about McCutchen for Reynolds, just off the top of my head.
I mentioned that one. That was an off-season trade, not a deadline trade.

Leake for Duvall + would qualify, though.
 
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