2023 Rosterbation

[calsnowskier]

Looks like we need a new GM . . .

Tigers Hire Scott Harris As President Of Baseball Operations

The Tigers are set to hire Giants general manager Scott Harris as their new president of baseball operations. Read more at MLB Trade Rumors.

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Good catch

Spoiler

Scott Harris to become President of Tigers

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/09/tigers-hire-scott-harris-giants-gm-president.html We are losing our GM. No idea how instrumental he has been in the churn. With him leaving, I can only hope that he has been the primary driver of it.

sportshoop.la

 

[LHG]

Good catch

Spoiler

Scott Harris to become President of Tigers

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/09/tigers-hire-scott-harris-giants-gm-president.html We are losing our GM. No idea how instrumental he has been in the churn. With him leaving, I can only hope that he has been the primary driver of it.

sportshoop.la

Just trying to be like @tzill

 

[calsnowskier]

Just trying to be like @tzill

He has had trouble keeping the alts separate this year. Everyone is having an off season.

 

[tzill]

From the Athletic:

Rogers continues to be an elite outlier in other important aspects. His average exit velocity of 84 mph is the lowest in the major leagues. He has allowed just three home runs in 69 1/3 innings, or a 1 percent home run rate — the lowest among the 170 major-league pitchers who have thrown at least as many innings as he has. His home run rate is even lower than it was last season (1.5 percent).

He's a piece for next year, just not an 8th inning piece.

 

[LHG]

Assuming Scott Alexander is a free agent this offseason and assuming that Carlos Rodon exercises his opt out and assuming Evan Longoria's 2023 option is NOT picked up, the Giants will still have to dfa at least 2 players just to get the 40 man limit on their roster after the season ends.
I would assume that at least 5 and most likely 7 players are going to get dfa'd. Here is my guess, based on what I know was the 40 man roster this morning, who will get the axe:
Austin Dean
Sam Delaplane
Bryce Johnson
Zack Littell
Ford Proctor
Donovan Walton
Colton Welker

I think that a couple could be interchangeable with this next list:
Jharel Cotton
Taylor Jones
Tommy LaStella
Sam Long
Yunior Marte
Luis Ortiz
Gregory Santos
Austin Wynns

 

[calsnowskier]

Assuming Scott Alexander is a free agent this offseason and assuming that Carlos Rodon exercises his opt out and assuming Evan Longoria's 2023 option is NOT picked up, the Giants will still have to dfa at least 2 players just to get the 40 man limit on their roster after the season ends.
I would assume that at least 5 and most likely 7 players are going to get dfa'd. Here is my guess, based on what I know was the 40 man roster this morning, who will get the axe:
Austin Dean
Sam Delaplane
Bryce Johnson
Zack Littell
Ford Proctor
Donovan Walton
Colton Welker

I think that a couple could be interchangeable with this next list:
Jharel Cotton
Taylor Jones
Tommy LaStella
Sam Long
Yunior Marte
Luis Ortiz
Gregory Santos
Austin Wynns

We identified about 6 or 7 players that need to be added on top of the 2 cuts needed to get to 40. So that actually means we will need 8 or 9 cuts before signing any FA. Some cuts will hurt, but I think we should be OK. Cotton looked good today, and his season number, as we discussed earlier this week, are solid. I think he is a near lock to make it through the gauntlet. I think Johnson, Long and Delaplane are all on this side of the fence, but they are certainly at least leaning on the fence.

 

[LHG]

We identified about 6 or 7 players that need to be added on top of the 2 cuts needed to get to 40. So that actually means we will need 8 or 9 cuts before signing any FA. Some cuts will hurt, but I think we should be OK. Cotton looked good today, and his season number, as we discussed earlier this week, are solid. I think he is a near lock to make it through the gauntlet. I think Johnson, Long and Delaplane are all on this side of the fence, but they are certainly at least leaning on the fence.

I'm just not convinced that the Giants will add that many players to the 40 man roster (at least, not from the minor leagues). I was making room for 3 to 5 players getting added. However, the FO may designate more players than needed so that they have room to sign free agents. We will see.

Regarding Delaplane, I would not be surprised in the least if they dfa him or even nontender him. It seems to be the Giants' MO, under FZ, to carry at least one pitcher on the 60 day IL throughout the season (or most of it), only to get rid of that pitcher during the following offseason.

 

[LHG]

I do not claim to have a solid grasp of Rule V eligibility, but I think players from the ‘19 draft are eligible this coming off season. Per RosterResource, here are some of our coming Rule V guys (some of these are guys who were eligible in past seasons as well)…

Carter Aldrete
Tristan Beck
Hunter Bishop
Seth Corry
Tyler Fitzgerald
Joey Marciano
PJ Hilson
Marco Luciano
Luis Matos
Jairo Pomares
Michael Stryffler
Kai-Wei Teng
Will Wilson

Some BIG names on this list. The no brainers are Luciano and Matos. But there are a lot of borderline guys like Wilson, Bishop, Pomares, Marciano, Fitzgerald (probably a no brainer), Stryffler and Beck.

My WAG is…

Luciano
Matos
Beck
Fitzgerald
Stryffler
Marciano
MAYBE Pomares (he is still super raw, but a lower-end team may store him on the 26 because he is such a strong prospect)

this going to be a rough year for us in the Rule V, I think. We will lose some decent players this year.

Went through my list and here are the players I believe are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this offseason (grouped by year they first became eligible):
2020
Pitchers (4): Jake Dahlberg, John Gavin, Joey Marciano, John Russell
Infielders (3): Riley Mahan, Shane Matheny, Frankie Tostado
Outfielders (1): Michael Gigliotti
2021
Pitchers (15): Tanner Andrews, Tristan Beck, Jonathan Bermudez, Seth Corry, Aaron Fletcher, Matt Frisbee, Clay Helvey, Ben Madison, Luis Moreno, Darrien Nunez, Conner Nurse, Blake Rivera, Ryan Walker, Keaton Winn, Jake Wong
Catchers (1): Braden Frankfort
Infielders (4): Abdiel Layer, Sean Roby, Ghordy Santos, Anyesber Sivira
Outfielders (1): Steele Walker
2022
Pitchers (17): Nick Avila, Jason Bonilla, Wilkelma Castillo, Brooks Crawford, Jose Cruz, Jorge Garcia, Roberto Monegro, Nick Morreale, Kanoa Pagan, Jose Perez, Yoniel Ramirez, Taylor Rashi, Julio Rodriguez, Michael Stryffeler, Kai-Wei Teng, Sonny Vargas, Chris Wright
Catchers (4): Ronaldo Flores, Cesar Gonzalez, Brandon Martorano, Rayner Santana
Infielders (10): Carter Aldrete, Tyler Fitzgerald, Marco Luciano, Edison Mora, Yorlis Rodriguez, Luis Toribio, Yeiver Torrealba, Simon Whiteman, Will Wilson, Logan Wyatt
Outfielders (8): Victor Bericoto, Hunter Bishop, Harrison Freed, Patrick Hilson, Luis Matos, Jairo Pomares, Armani Smith, Alexander Suarez

Outside of the guys you've mentioned, I think the following could be possible surprise adds to the 40 man roster:
Jose Cruz, rp - This could well be this year's version of Kervin Castro or Gregory Santos. Just 22 years old next year, he had a very good season with San Jose. He posted a 2.06 ERA, 0.841 WHIP and 14.8 K/9. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he is added to the 40 man roster.
Nick Avila, rp - combined ERA of 1.14, WHIP of 0.976 and K/9 of 9.4 between Eugene and Richmond. Stokes pointed out his season in another thread. Is 25 years of age.
Michael Stryffeler, rp - Yes, I know you mentioned him. Just wanted to circle back on him. His time with Sacramento was atrocious (not many Sac pitchers that didn't look bad this year) but he was acquired in a deadline trade and had good to decent numbers in AA prior to the trade. May be a surprise add.
Clay Helvey, rp - This is pretty far outside but his 2022 could possibly catch the FO's attention. Between Eugene and Richmond, he posted a good year (2.63 ERA, 1.061 WHIP, 12.2 K/9) but will be 26 years old when the 2023 season opens.
Taylor Rashi, rp - Another far outside candidate (he will be 27 next year) but he did pitch well for Richmond when healthy (2.83 ERA, 0.971 WHIP, 13.4 K/9).
Blake Rivera, rp - Another guy from the 2021 class, he finally got in a fairly healthy season and pitched well out of the bullpen with Richmond (2.70 ERA, 1.136 WHIP, 9.3 K/9). He is a bit younger than the two listed above (25) and has a bit of draft pedigree (4th round pick of 2019 draft).
Luis Toribio, 3rd - He didn't hit well with Eugene (.209/.309/.429) but he is young (22) and has hit well in past seasons.
Alexander Suarez, of - Another young player (21) who has hit well in the past but struggled in 2022 (San Jose - .231/.296/.412). Outside chance he's added.

 

[tzill]

J.D. Davis is under team control for the next 2 seasons after this one. Keeping him is an easy call imo but his bat needs to be in the lineup every day

 

[tzill]

From Baggs:

Pederson has been worth 16.4 batting runs above average, according to FanGraphs, which works out to just more than $20 million in value.

Ah, but here’s the catch. Or rather, a lack of them. Pederson is giving almost all of his value back on the defensive end. He has been worth minus-16.0 fielding runs above average, a measure that is supported both by the defensive metrics and the eye test. Pederson’s Statcast page might be streaked with red when you look at barrel rates and exit velocities, but it’s ice blue when it comes to sprint speed and outs above average.

Pederson has been worth minus-9 outs above average, according to Statcast — sixth worst among major league outfielders. He is 3 for 8 catching balls in play with a 50 to 70 percent catch probability. He’s made 11 of 14 catches with a probability between 70-90 percent. As for plays below a 50 percent catch probability? Pederson has received 23 opportunities. He hasn’t converted any of them into an out.

 

[LHG]

From Baggs:

Pederson has been worth 16.4 batting runs above average, according to FanGraphs, which works out to just more than $20 million in value.

Ah, but here’s the catch. Or rather, a lack of them. Pederson is giving almost all of his value back on the defensive end. He has been worth minus-16.0 fielding runs above average, a measure that is supported both by the defensive metrics and the eye test. Pederson’s Statcast page might be streaked with red when you look at barrel rates and exit velocities, but it’s ice blue when it comes to sprint speed and outs above average.

Pederson has been worth minus-9 outs above average, according to Statcast — sixth worst among major league outfielders. He is 3 for 8 catching balls in play with a 50 to 70 percent catch probability. He’s made 11 of 14 catches with a probability between 70-90 percent. As for plays below a 50 percent catch probability? Pederson has received 23 opportunities. He hasn’t converted any of them into an out.

Can you send this to the FO and Kapler so that they can be educated when filling out the DH spot in the lineup next year?

 

[tzill]

Can you send this to the FO and Kapler so that they can be educated when filling out the DH spot in the lineup next year?

I guess I have more faith than you do that they're not idiots. But, you might end up being right.

 

[LHG]

I guess I have more faith than you do that they're not idiots. But, you might end up being right.

See 2022 season. Exhibit A - the post you just made about his defense.

 

[calsnowskier]

Can you send this to the FO and Kapler so that they can be educated when filling out the DH spot in the lineup next year?

I heard that they are going to give Craw some time at DH. Also, theywill add Wilson to the 40 and 26 and put him in the DH spot. Meanwhile, they will be playing Mercedes in the field exclusively, primarily at SS and CF.

 

[calsnowskier]

I guess I have more faith than you do that they're not idiots. But, you might end up being right.

I would think so as well. But then I see La Stella getting the lion’s share of the DH ABs this year.

 

[tzill]

See 2022 season. Exhibit A - the post you just made about his defense.

Sure, the season has been a disappointment. A lot of things have gone wrong. But, it doesn't mean that FZ is an idiot or that his team is incompetent.

Similarly, 2021 didn't prove that FZ is a genius or that his team is elite.

Poop occurs. Sometimes it goes your way, others it doesn't. I am interested to see how 23 works out. But, I wouldn't expect a huge number of young guys getting shots.

 

[tzill]

I heard that they are going to give Craw some time at DH. Also, theywill add Wilson to the 40 and 26 and put him in the DH spot. Meanwhile, they will be playing Mercedes in the field exclusively, primarily at SS and CF.

Maybe, but I'd prefer Joc as the LH DH.
Wilson might be a good platoon guy for RH DH.
Mercedes? Can't see him on the roster.

 

[LHG]

Sure, the season has been a disappointment. A lot of things have gone wrong. But, it doesn't mean that FZ is an idiot or that his team is incompetent.

Similarly, 2021 didn't prove that FZ is a genius or that his team is elite.

Poop occurs. Sometimes it goes your way, others it doesn't. I am interested to see how 23 works out. But, I wouldn't expect a huge number of young guys getting shots.

My point being that you don't see the FO as idiots (the idea being that they are not stupid enough to play Pederson in the field). If that is the measure of their idiocy, then my counterpoint is that they continue to run him out there on a regular basis this year, with both the eye test AND the statistics to show that is a stupid thing to do. There have been countless times that they have started Wade at 1st, Pederson at left and someone who would else (i.e. LaStella) at DH.
My point isn't that the FO are idiots (I don't really believe that idiots get that far up in an organization's depth charts but there are exceptions), only that I don't have faith that this leadership group will realize that Pederson is best suited as full time DH in 2023. Your post convinces me that they will waste their money next year if they bring him back and play him in the field.

 

[calsnowskier]

Maybe, but I'd prefer Joc as the LH DH.
Wilson might be a good platoon guy for RH DH.
Mercedes? Can't see him on the roster.

I was being facetious. Wilson is an elite glove, no bat prospect. Mercedes is an above average bat, no glove journeyman.

 

[LHG]

I was being facetious. Wilson is an elite glove, no bat prospect. Mercedes is an above average bat, no glove journeyman.

I was expecting you to post the HF smilie.