2019/2020 OFF SEASON THREAD

[NWinAZ]

Once the Mariners reach a point where they're contenders, I have no issue with supplementing the team through free agency.

Well there is the problem. There is no contending with what we currently have or will have via the minors. This whole place holding until kids are ready is just BS. You build the best team possible and if the kids in the minors can help then you are only stronger. Nats didn't hold a spot for Soto and other pups. They made them earn it and had vets around them to teach and show them the way. They let Harper go when they thought the kids were ready to take over which was the right move, but they never reserved spots for them. They also bought free agents year by year until they built a damn good starting rotation. They could have never added them all in one year because they all wouldn't be available in the same year. In order to add future studs, you first have to have current studs to attract them.

People use Felix's long term deal as a cautionary tale, but they only see the last few bad years and tend to forget the 15 great years or whatever it was. The contract they gave him was never the issue. The issue was, like the Cano deal, they never added to the talent pool afterwards.

You can say they got lucky with the Cano deal but luck plays no part. There are dumb GM's out there all the time willing to make a splash. We found the right one which is rare because we are usually the one. His signing never hurt us nor did it keep us from going forward. Only a self imposed spending limit stopped us and an inability to draft and develop for decades. You get what you pay for with GM's and we tend to search for them on the sale rack.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Again, I will say I am fully aware the Mariners aren't competing or trying to compete in 2020. But Dipoto's words that he has said multiple times on record is that they will try and compete 2021. Competing in 12 months should mean they start preparing for that now. Not in 12 months.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Woodworth and Vitale are interesting names and kinda cool stories. Vitale was kinda pressed into that role with Aquasox midseason last year so thats cool that he gets shot up here.

 

[ulmax]

Well there is the problem. There is no contending with what we currently have or will have via the minors. This whole place holding until kids are ready is just BS. You build the best team possible and if the kids in the minors can help then you are only stronger. Nats didn't hold a spot for Soto and other pups. They made them earn it and had vets around them to teach and show them the way. They let Harper go when they thought the kids were ready to take over which was the right move, but they never reserved spots for them. They also bought free agents year by year until they built a damn good starting rotation. They could have never added them all in one year because they all wouldn't be available in the same year. In order to add future studs, you first have to have current studs to attract them.

People use Felix's long term deal as a cautionary tale, but they only see the last few bad years and tend to forget the 15 great years or whatever it was. The contract they gave him was never the issue. The issue was, like the Cano deal, they never added to the talent pool afterwards.

You can say they got lucky with the Cano deal but luck plays no part. There are dumb GM's out there all the time willing to make a splash. We found the right one which is rare because we are usually the one. His signing never hurt us nor did it keep us from going forward. Only a self imposed spending limit stopped us and an inability to draft and develop for decades. You get what you pay for with GM's and we tend to search for them on the sale rack.

Ok im convinced..and you are right
Should we try for garret cole..
(Cuz he is the one i would want)
And if we dont get him..
Then who..

 

[seahawksfan234]

Yea its just a chance I'd be willing to take at this point. When the Cubs signed Lester to his big deal, he was 31 as well and he was the pitcher they needed to kind of push them over the top. I think they also signed him a year before the WS IIRC. Granted the 2015 Cubs are far ahead of the 2020 Mariners so maybe not the best example but something I think you compare somewhat

The more I think about it and talk about it with you guys, I'll admit I do see the compelling argument for signing Cole. I just worry that there is a higher possibility it goes wrong than goes right. That's mostly because I'm skeptical that by 2021 we will realistically be contenders and have to ship him off and potentially eat a portion of his salary which could hamstring us financially in the future.

 

[seahawksfan234]

so you’re saying you wouldn’t target them via FA cause of age?

I'm coming around to the idea of targeting him even if it's unrealistic. As I said in another post I have my doubts if the team will realistically contend in 2021. When you give a big contract to a player, you're essentially paying a premium for their prime years knowing that they'll likely decline with age. My concern is that his decline could come around the time when we really need an ace and we'll have a substantial amount of money tied up with him.

And no I'm not being "ageist," I only tease you for being old because it's funny.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Well there is the problem. There is no contending with what we currently have or will have via the minors. This whole place holding until kids are ready is just BS. You build the best team possible and if the kids in the minors can help then you are only stronger. Nats didn't hold a spot for Soto and other pups. They made them earn it and had vets around them to teach and show them the way. They let Harper go when they thought the kids were ready to take over which was the right move, but they never reserved spots for them. They also bought free agents year by year until they built a damn good starting rotation. They could have never added them all in one year because they all wouldn't be available in the same year. In order to add future studs, you first have to have current studs to attract them.

People use Felix's long term deal as a cautionary tale, but they only see the last few bad years and tend to forget the 15 great years or whatever it was. The contract they gave him was never the issue. The issue was, like the Cano deal, they never added to the talent pool afterwards.

You can say they got lucky with the Cano deal but luck plays no part. There are dumb GM's out there all the time willing to make a splash. We found the right one which is rare because we are usually the one. His signing never hurt us nor did it keep us from going forward. Only a self imposed spending limit stopped us and an inability to draft and develop for decades. You get what you pay for with GM's and we tend to search for them on the sale rack.

You know you could be right. You do bring up good points and I'm now at the point where I'm closer to agreeing with you than disagreeing with you.

I'm not saying you're wrong but I worry that say if he gets a $240m contract over 7 years, we'll be paying a lot of money for Cole and ownership might not be willing to expand payroll beyond a certain point. We both agree that the owners should pay a fuck ton to make this team a World Series contender, but in the end there is a threshold in which they won't spend any more. The Astros for example are a great example as they likely don't "have" the money to retain Cole.

I know the Felix comparison is a relative stretch and Cole doesn't have the workload that Felix had at 28, but I don't think any of us would've anticipated that Felix would decline so drastically. My concern is that a hypothetical Cole signing could be a burden in say 2022 or 2023 if he starts to decline with age. I'm not saying it's a bad idea, just saying it could backfire drastically.

"Luck" may have not been the best word for the Cano trade, but realistically the return we got for him and Diaz was ridiculously above what anyone could have anticipated. If Kelenic is the real deal and Dunn turns out being solid, unloading Cano's contract and obtaining those two guys could go down as one of the best trades in Mariner history.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Ok im convinced..and you are right
Should we try for garret cole..
(Cuz he is the one i would want)
And if we dont get him..
Then who..

Looks like I'm not the only one convinced by @NWinAZ's argument

 

[seahawksfan234]

Woodworth and Vitale are interesting names and kinda cool stories. Vitale was kinda pressed into that role with Aquasox midseason last year so thats cool that he gets shot up here.

I like the Woodworth hiring a lot. Apparently he was great in the minors. Don't know much about Vitale.

 

[NWinAZ]

I'm not saying you're wrong but I worry that say if he gets a $240m contract over 7 years, we'll be paying a lot of money for Cole and ownership might not be willing to expand payroll beyond a certain point.

You are 100% correct on this and that is where it needs to change.

I know the Felix comparison is a relative stretch and Cole doesn't have the workload that Felix had at 28, but I don't think any of us would've anticipated that Felix would decline so drastically.

Again, full agreement. But we should have considered that based on his reluctance to work hard or change his style of pitching. Hindsight for sure, but the writing was on the wall. With that said, they had no choice but to sign him to that contract and it was worth every penny to them overall.

My concern is that a hypothetical Cole signing could be a burden in say 2022 or 2023 if he starts to decline with age. I'm not saying it's a bad idea, just saying it could backfire drastically.

It could with any pitcher. Here is my take; No risk, no reward. They can't win w/o making big splashes. I would rather they spread the money around, but with pitching you get what we have which is a lot of #4 and #5 starters.

"Luck" may have not been the best word for the Cano trade, but realistically the return we got for him and Diaz was ridiculously above what anyone could have anticipated. If Kelenic is the real deal and Dunn turns out being solid, unloading Cano's contract and obtaining those two guys could go down as one of the best trades in Mariner history.

It would and we are do for one in that category. Maybe we haven't had big trade win since Buhner or Randy. I hate to say this, but the longtime Mariner fan in me still says those two aren't worth anything yet and unless they deliver with the big club they will just be another Jeromy Reed and Jesus Montero.

And for the record, I only say Cole because he is a true Ace that is available. If Wheeler could be a true Ace, save money and sign him. Some say take a chance and trade for Archer. I'm fine with that spending on cost and only if we are looking at a #3 SP at best and still look to get legit a #1 and #2. Just please Mariners make a legit signing of a legit #1 and #2.

 

[NWinAZ]

Ok im convinced..and you are right
Should we try for garret cole..
(Cuz he is the one i would want)
And if we dont get him..
Then who..

Cole stands out because true Aces rarely come up while still an Ace. If not him, then your guess is as good as mine. Wheeler from Mets would be another option, but he isn't a true Ace but may be better than 4/5th's of our current starters.

Start trying to win now and then the next off season becomes a lot easier.

And for the record, M's won't do anything of substance this off season. They will sign some vets on the downside of their careers to one year deals and hope the rookies take over from them later in the season. It will be another long season and we will be no closer to a 'rebuild' going into 2021. I was more patient as a 20 year old watching this but at 52 the game changes. If I am lucky enough to live to 70 that means I have 17 more seasons to hope and you can already write off next season so at best I am down to 16.

 

[NWinAZ]

I like the Woodworth hiring a lot. Apparently he was great in the minors. Don't know much about Vitale.

I don't like any of their coaching signings only because if the M's chose them history says they are wrong...lol.

 

[seahawksfan234]

You are 100% correct on this and that is where it needs to change.

I just worry that it won't change once the Mariners hit a payroll around the top-5 in baseball.

Again, full agreement. But we should have considered that based on his reluctance to work hard or change his style of pitching. Hindsight for sure, but the writing was on the wall. With that said, they had no choice but to sign him to that contract and it was worth every penny to them overall.

The Felix thing will always be complicated IMO. I do think that his reluctance to change his style of pitching and his "conditioning" played a role, but not only did he lose his velocity on his pitches but he lacked movement and control. I'm not a doctor and don't pretend to understand what goes on in the human body, but I'll always wonder if things would've been different if he actually changed his routine/tried different things on the mound.

It could with any pitcher. Here is my take; No risk, no reward. They can't win w/o making big splashes. I would rather they spread the money around, but with pitching you get what we have which is a lot of #4 and #5 starters.

Can't disagree with you there. I'm probably just so risk adverse that I consider what could go wrong more than what could go right. We're definitely in agreement that even if our pitching prospects meet their loftiest expectations, it's still a league average rotation at best. 4 years from now if Cole is still pitching at an elite level we will likely be kicking ourselves for not going after him.

It would and we are do for one in that category. Maybe we haven't had big trade win since Buhner or Randy. I hate to say this, but the longtime Mariner fan in me still says those two aren't worth anything yet and unless they deliver with the big club they will just be another Jeromy Reed and Jesus Montero.

And for the record, I only say Cole because he is a true Ace that is available. If Wheeler could be a true Ace, save money and sign him. Some say take a chance and trade for Archer. I'm fine with that spending on cost and only if we are looking at a #3 SP at best and still look to get legit a #1 and #2. Just please Mariners make a legit signing of a legit #1 and #2.

When it comes to Kelenic I haven't been so excited about a prospect since I started following the team closely. I do think he's the real deal and although the Jeremy Reed thing was a long time ago, I think that Kelenic is a better prospect. I thought the Montero trade was fair, but hindsight being 20/20 there were red flags that the organization should've taken into consideration.

Your persuasive argument aside, one of the things that has really swayed me to agreeing with you is the fact that as of right now the free agent market for elite starting pitchers is relatively poor in 2020/2021 which really weakens my argument for looking for pitching a year or two from now.

I hate to say it but I think you're right. I'd also rather pay dollars for a pitcher than have to pay in prospects via a trade. I doubt the Mariners will pursue Cole, but I will eat crow and concede that you're probably right on this.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I don't like any of their coaching signings only because if the M's chose them history says they are wrong...lol.

For whatever it's worth he apparently has a great rapport with our prospects, which apparently our last pitching coach - whose name I already can't remember - didn't have.

 

[NWinAZ]

For whatever it's worth he apparently has a great rapport with our prospects, which apparently our last pitching coach - whose name I already can't remember - didn't have.

I really don't care who they hire because I don't know how much of a difference it makes. I do know the last pitching coach signing was a head-scratcher. He had no experience as one and he just seemed more like a computer guy than a face to face guy. He just seemed to lack personality which rapport is key working with these guys.

 

[ulmax]

I do see..your point of view..at this point.and have to agree with it...so have change my mind as well

And would be sold on garret cole

As for some others...i dont know

 

[ulmax]

Garret cole

And
Jacob" doggie door nix..i could go with
2 RHP..s
Would make a rotation of

Cole
Gonzales..LHP
Nix
Kikychi...LHP
Dunn
Shefield..LHP
I could go with that..to start with

 

[The Q]

Interesting read

Jacob Nix is worth a flier for the Mariners

 

[ulmax]

Interesting read

Jacob Nix is worth a flier for the Mariners

Nix would be more of a tacoma guy
That could be brought up
Than a top line starter...right now
But with the way the mariners rotation is
He wood prob still..get 10 starts

 

[seahawksfan234]

I really don't care who they hire because I don't know how much of a difference it makes. I do know the last pitching coach signing was a head-scratcher. He had no experience as one and he just seemed more like a computer guy than a face to face guy. He just seemed to lack personality which rapport is key working with these guys.

I agree with all you said. Pete Woodworth (the new pitching coach) seems to have the mind of the previous pitching coach whose name I'm too hungover to remember, but unlike the previous pitching coach, Woodworth appears to have an ability to connect with players well.

But as you mentioned who knows how much of a difference a pitching coach really makes.