2016 Rosterbation

[calsnowskier]

Pagan and Blanco leaving do not open spots for Mac and/or Parker. They are corners. And the corners would be locked with Pence and Gordon. Sure, there would be spot starts and pinch hits. But their starting possibilities would only exist on another team or in the event that Pence or Gordon go down.

 

[LHG]

I fully endorse the idea. He is the 3.5-type that I have been calling for.

I have two words: Scott Boras.

Also, compare his numbers the past few years with Gregor Blanco's. Then ask yourself, why Span?

 

[LHG]

I respectfully disagree, esp the "completely" part. If we got Gordon (or another OF), we would still need a rookie as the #5 OF - as in Pence/Pagan/Gordon/Blanco/rookie. And when Pagan goes down, we'll likely need them both.

How often does the Giants keep 5 outfielders on the roster?

 

[LHG]

Luxury tax - Record four teams pay MLB luxury tax for 2015

 

[Mays-Fan]

How often does the Giants keep 5 outfielders on the roster?

A fair question. We might need only 4 if we had an infielder who played at least some OF. We have Belt, but the OF for him doesn't seem to be a thing. There has been talk of Kelby in the OF, but it has only been talk.

Then there is the Pagan factor. We should plan on resting him a good bit, and be ready if he gets injured. The whole OF was a bit shaky last year.

I just don't think 4 OF's is enough for us.

 

[calsnowskier]

A fair question. We might need only 4 if we had an infielder who played at least some OF. We have Belt, but the OF for him doesn't seem to be a thing. There has been talk of Kelby in the OF, but it has only been talk.

Then there is the Pagan factor. We should plan on resting him a good bit, and be ready if he gets injured. The whole OF was a bit shaky last year.

I just don't think 4 OF's is enough for us.

But just any OF does not solve any problems. We need an OF who can play CF.

Austin Jackson is my pick.

Any chance we could get Kiermaier away from TB? What would he cost?

 

[SFGRTB]

But just any OF does not solve any problems. We need an OF who can play CF.

Austin Jackson is my pick.

Any chance we could get Kiermaier away from TB? What would he cost?

Everybody wants Kiermaier right now. No way he get pried from Tampa. Yet.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Everybody wants Kiermaier right now. No way he get pried from Tampa. Yet.

Amazing he was a 31st round draft pick. I'll bet he has quite a story.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Re FA CF's, we are back to the used car lot in the sticks, with just a few cars, they're all too expensive, some with recent risky repairs, all with some declining key performance measures. And the ones we're trying to make in the garage at home aren't turning out very well.

I tend to agree with LHG - I'm not sure any of them are worth the premium to be paid over Blanco. And let's not completely discount Pagan - after returning from his injury, he hit to a .790 OPS in September. What is Pagan's health status prognosis for 2016? Who of us is to say?

I'm not convinced we need a CF yet - and the FA alternatives just aren't that compelling to me. Span might come the closest, but he is coming off hip surgery, and with Boras as his agent, he is looking to get paid, likely on the order of at least 3/40 or 4/50 (my WAG based on no outside source). That's a lot of cheese for someone who may be medically risky, may have lost a step or two because of the injury (so his defense will suffer), and thus arguably not much better than Blanco.

I am fairly convinced we need to do something in the OF. Having two marginal and untested rookies along with Pagan and to a degree Blanco as 4 of the 5 makes me uncomfortable. That is not the composition of a WS-contending outfield. And our list of minor league OF prospects is short and unimpressive. Just my own wacky brainstorming, but maybe an answer is to trade for a high CF prospect who may be somewhat blocked, offering some of our own pitching prospects (where we have some relative depth), and roll the dice with that.

It comes down to a lot of key items that I don't know much about - what the real health issues are, the subtleties of defensive metrics and the projections of the candidates, what the FO is willing to spend and for how long, etc.

 

[calsnowskier]

I can go with much of what you said. My arguments for Span or Jackson assume short, cheap-ish deals. A 3/40 for Span is ridiculous and I would not be in favor of that.

The problem is that CF is a big rarity in MLB right now. The Giants are not the only team in need of one. So while Pagan and Blanco may not be strong, it may, in fact, be well above MLB average. Throw in the potential of Tomlinson and MAYBE the Giants are actually close to MLB elite (considering #of legit options).

Having Blanco/Mac/Parker as the LF solution looks scary at first, quick glance. But Mac and Parker are both legit prospects. They are not simply what they are. They are growing. We do not need (or want, really) both to just improve marginally. We need (want?) just one if them to improve enough to be just about league average (for a starter) to really lock down that position. And if that takes time, we have Blanco to hold down the fort until that happens.

There was some publication last year (MLB.com??) that ranked the top 10 MLB OFs going into the season. They considered the Giants collection of Pence, Pagan, Aoki, Blanco and Maxwell to be (something like) the eighth best in the MLB. I was surprised at the time, but the fact was, most teams have huge holes. We have a STUD RF, the best infield in baseball, and a top 5 rotation. We can afford to not have a top 5 OF.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I can go with much of what you said. My arguments for Span or Jackson assume short, cheap-ish deals. 1) A 3/40 for Span is ridiculous and I would not be in favor of that.

The problem is that CF is a big rarity in MLB right now. The Giants are not the only team in need of one. So while Pagan and Blanco may not be strong, it may, in fact, be well above MLB average. 2) Throw in the potential of Tomlinson and MAYBE the Giants are actually close to MLB elite (considering #of legit options).

Having Blanco/Mac/Parker as the LF solution looks scary at first, quick glance. 3) But Mac and Parker are both legit prospects. They are not simply what they are. They are growing. We do not need (or want, really) both to just improve marginally. We need (want?) just one if them to improve enough to be just about league average (for a starter) to really lock down that position. And if that takes time, 4) we have Blanco to hold down the fort until that happens.

There was some publication last year (MLB.com??) that ranked the top 10 MLB OFs going into the season. They considered the Giants collection of Pence, Pagan, Aoki, Blanco and Maxwell to be (something like) the eighth best in the MLB. I was surprised at the time, but the fact was, most teams have huge holes. We have a STUD RF, the best infield in baseball, and a top 5 rotation. 5) We can afford to not have a top 5 OF.

All good points. Some comments:

1) Span made $9mm last year, he's had two of his best hitting years the last two years, Boras is his agent, and salaries are rising fast. Yeah, he won't be at all cheap, or short-term.

2) If I was Tomlinson, I'd be doing everything I could to learn how to play CF.

3) IMHO, the odds of either Mac or Parker being WS-contending quality OF's AND in time to fit Teh Window are very slim.

4) YUUUUGE props to Blanco for raising his offensive game since he's been here. Who knows? He may still improve, which would make him very legit.

5) The thing is though, we can also afford to have a Top 5 OF. Unless my budget figures are way off somehow, we have $15mm-ish to spend on another player, more if we are willing to exceed the lux cap by a little. We could afford Gordon/Cespedes/Upton if we wanted to. I'm just very, very leery of Cespedes or Upton and their impact on the clubhouse. Gordon can play LF, and Blanco/Pagan can de facto platoon in CF. Rasmus would have been almost perfect. I wonder if we could still trade for him.

Finally, Byrd would be a punt, but a pretty good punt.

 

[MarcoPolo]

A few important words : payroll flexibility in June/July.

 

[calsnowskier]

All good points. Some comments:

1) Span made $9mm last year, he's had two of his best hitting years the last two years, Boras is his agent, and salaries are rising fast. Yeah, he won't be at all cheap, or short-term.

2) If I was Tomlinson, I'd be doing everything I could to learn how to play CF.

3) IMHO, the odds of either Mac or Parker being WS-contending quality OF's AND in time to fit Teh Window are very slim.

4) YUUUUGE props to Blanco for raising his offensive game since he's been here. Who knows? He may still improve, which would make him very legit.

5) The thing is though, we can also afford to have a Top 5 OF. Unless my budget figures are way off somehow, we have $15mm-ish to spend on another player, more if we are willing to exceed the lux cap by a little. We could afford Gordon/Cespedes/Upton if we wanted to. I'm just very, very leery of Cespedes or Upton and their impact on the clubhouse. Gordon can play LF, and Blanco/Pagan can de facto platoon in CF. Rasmus would have been almost perfect. I wonder if we could still trade for him.

Finally, Byrd would be a punt, but a pretty good punt.

The prob with Gordon is that he will likely get a 5-year deal, and he is already 32 with signs of decline.

 

[msgkings322]

The prob with Gordon is that he will likely get a 5-year deal, and he is already 32 with signs of decline.

Agree, I don't think Gordon is a fit and it seems the FO agrees, he's also lefty isn't he?. Depending on the terms Span, Jackson, etc. make sense, but I'm ok waiting for the other dominoes to fall and bring the price down on the remaining OF FAs. We can afford to negotiate hard since we don't NEED a FA OF just yet.

 

[LHG]

I read somewhere (wish I could remember where) that Span is just coming off a very team friendly contract and is looking to get paid. With Boras as his agent, he will leverage Span to the hilt. The way I see it, that means that either A) a team comes along and gives him that ridiculous contract or B) Span is still available a week before spring training and has to re-think what he is willing to take off an injury shortened year.

With that, could we be a little too worried about making this team "perfect"? Sure, there are some question marks but is there any team that has fewer ones than the Giants? Consider:
Catcher - Buster Posey, enough said
1st Base - Brandon Belt. He keeps getting better. And Posey hits even better playing 1st base than catcher so if Belt gets another random injury, there will be no concern there.
2nd Base - Joe Panik/Kelby Tomlinson. Both did well in 2015. So if Panik's back isn't good, Tomlinson has shown to be a capable fill in.
Shortstop - Brandon Crawford. See Belt, Brandon regarding offensive. The guy is hitting his peak years.
3rd Base - Matt Duffy. Another guy who came out of nowhere and did great. Did he ever have a prolonged slump in 2015?
Left field - Gregor Blanco/Mac Williamson/Jarrett Parker. Blanco had a good year in 2015. Parker showed some serious power in September. Williamson was just getting back into game shape when he was called up.
Center field - Angel Pagan. Once he was healthy, he started hitting closer to his career norms.
Right field - Hunter Pence. A healthy season for him will be huge for this lineup.
Starting rotation - Bumgarner/Cueto/Samardzija/Peavy/Cain/Heston. I'll talk about question marks shortly, but look at this from the bright side - Matt Cain projects to be the 5th starter on this team.
Bullpen - Osich/Lopez/Strickland/Heston(?)/Kontos/Romo/Casilla - One of the strongest parts of the team.

So what are the serious question marks?
Health - Belt/Panik/Pagan/Pence/Cain were all out for extended periods of time. Will they be healthy enough to be productive again?
Left field - Blanco could revert. Parker could be a September fluke. Williamson may never fully recover from Tommy John surgery.
Starting rotation - Was 2015 a fluke for Samardzija? Did Cueto's numbers in KC an ill timed slump? Can Cain regain his production?
Yes, everything could fall apart. Players who we think are a guarantee to be productive could slump mightily or get an extended injury but what team could say that?

My questions for everyone is this - what World Series winner was completely built in the offseason (versus a mid season trade of some kind)? And what World Series winner didn't have some question mark in at least one part of the roster?

 

[calsnowskier]

Let me be clear here...

I am 100% OK if the Giants are 100% done. Byrd would be great. DeAza would be great. One of the big 3 would be amazing. Leake would be mind-blowing.

But if we go into spring with the roster exactly how it is constructed right now, I will be just fine.

Just talking about tweaks at this point.

 

[tzill]

Re FA CF's, we are back to the used car lot in the sticks, with just a few cars, they're all too expensive, some with recent risky repairs, all with some declining key performance measures. And the ones we're trying to make in the garage at home aren't turning out very well.

I tend to agree with LHG - I'm not sure any of them are worth the premium to be paid over Blanco. And let's not completely discount Pagan - after returning from his injury, he hit to a .790 OPS in September. What is Pagan's health status prognosis for 2016? Who of us is to say?

I'm not convinced we need a CF yet - and the FA alternatives just aren't that compelling to me. Span might come the closest, but he is coming off hip surgery, and with Boras as his agent, he is looking to get paid, likely on the order of at least 3/40 or 4/50 (my WAG based on no outside source). That's a lot of cheese for someone who may be medically risky, may have lost a step or two because of the injury (so his defense will suffer), and thus arguably not much better than Blanco.

I am fairly convinced we need to do something in the OF. Having two marginal and untested rookies along with Pagan and to a degree Blanco as 4 of the 5 makes me uncomfortable. That is not the composition of a WS-contending outfield. And our list of minor league OF prospects is short and unimpressive. Just my own wacky brainstorming, but maybe an answer is to trade for a high CF prospect who may be somewhat blocked, offering some of our own pitching prospects (where we have some relative depth), and roll the dice with that.

It comes down to a lot of key items that I don't know much about - what the real health issues are, the subtleties of defensive metrics and the projections of the candidates, what the FO is willing to spend and for how long, etc.

Well, the 2010 WS OF was PTB, RoRo, Ssory Doc, Torres, and Nate -- not a WS contender
The 2012 WS OF was Shark, Nady, Oxy, Herk -- not a WS contender
The 2014 WS OF was Shark, Ishi, Beast, Herk, JCP.

Conclusion: we have no freaking idea what a "WS contending OF" should look like....especially in December.

 

[tzill]

All good points. Some comments:

1) Span made $9mm last year, he's had two of his best hitting years the last two years, Boras is his agent, and salaries are rising fast. Yeah, he won't be at all cheap, or short-term.

2) If I was Tomlinson, I'd be doing everything I could to learn how to play CF.

3) IMHO, the odds of either Mac or Parker being WS-contending quality OF's AND in time to fit Teh Window are very slim.

4) YUUUUGE props to Blanco for raising his offensive game since he's been here. Who knows? He may still improve, which would make him very legit.

5) The thing is though, we can also afford to have a Top 5 OF. Unless my budget figures are way off somehow, we have $15mm-ish to spend on another player, more if we are willing to exceed the lux cap by a little. We could afford Gordon/Cespedes/Upton if we wanted to. I'm just very, very leery of Cespedes or Upton and their impact on the clubhouse. Gordon can play LF, and Blanco/Pagan can de facto platoon in CF. Rasmus would have been almost perfect. I wonder if we could still trade for him.

Finally, Byrd would be a punt, but a pretty good punt.

I can't remember where I read it, maybe Chris Haft, but the Giants have moved on from the KT to the OF experiment. Apparently, he didn't show the instincts while in AZ in November and they decided to NOT send him to the AFL. He's an IF.

 

[tzill]

I read somewhere (wish I could remember where) that Span is just coming off a very team friendly contract and is looking to get paid. With Boras as his agent, he will leverage Span to the hilt. The way I see it, that means that either A) a team comes along and gives him that ridiculous contract or B) Span is still available a week before spring training and has to re-think what he is willing to take off an injury shortened year.

With that, could we be a little too worried about making this team "perfect"? Sure, there are some question marks but is there any team that has fewer ones than the Giants? Consider:
Catcher - Buster Posey, enough said
1st Base - Brandon Belt. He keeps getting better. And Posey hits even better playing 1st base than catcher so if Belt gets another random injury, there will be no concern there.
2nd Base - Joe Panik/Kelby Tomlinson. Both did well in 2015. So if Panik's back isn't good, Tomlinson has shown to be a capable fill in.
Shortstop - Brandon Crawford. See Belt, Brandon regarding offensive. The guy is hitting his peak years.
3rd Base - Matt Duffy. Another guy who came out of nowhere and did great. Did he ever have a prolonged slump in 2015?
Left field - Gregor Blanco/Mac Williamson/Jarrett Parker. Blanco had a good year in 2015. Parker showed some serious power in September. Williamson was just getting back into game shape when he was called up.
Center field - Angel Pagan. Once he was healthy, he started hitting closer to his career norms.
Right field - Hunter Pence. A healthy season for him will be huge for this lineup.
Starting rotation - Bumgarner/Cueto/Samardzija/Peavy/Cain/Heston. I'll talk about question marks shortly, but look at this from the bright side - Matt Cain projects to be the 5th starter on this team.
Bullpen - Osich/Lopez/Strickland/Heston(?)/Kontos/Romo/Casilla - One of the strongest parts of the team.

So what are the serious question marks?
Health - Belt/Panik/Pagan/Pence/Cain were all out for extended periods of time. Will they be healthy enough to be productive again?
Left field - Blanco could revert. Parker could be a September fluke. Williamson may never fully recover from Tommy John surgery.
Starting rotation - Was 2015 a fluke for Samardzija? Did Cueto's numbers in KC an ill timed slump? Can Cain regain his production?
Yes, everything could fall apart. Players who we think are a guarantee to be productive could slump mightily or get an extended injury but what team could say that?

My questions for everyone is this - what World Series winner was completely built in the offseason (versus a mid season trade of some kind)? And what World Series winner didn't have some question mark in at least one part of the roster?

no, not enough. Add two words that rhyme with "scandrew" and "Muzak"

 

[LHG]

no, not enough. Add two words that rhyme with "scandrew" and "Muzak"

I don't think Trevor Brown rhymes with those words.