2016/2017 Off-Season Thread

[calsnowskier]

I think there's a big difference between Gonor and Ishi. Gonor has a clearer path to PT and more use as a reserve than Ishi ever had. Belt is entrenched at 1st, and Posey needs days off there so Ishi was strictly a PHer. Gonor can play 3rd and 1st and no one is really trenched into that position, and he proved to be a decent PHer.


I would offer all those guys Arb, except Gearrin, but the staff seems to have some sort of infatuation of him so he's probably sticking around. If Romo, Casilla, and Lopez all walk, there's probably still space for him to sneak in.

The comparison was to the point that Ishi was signed, but still DFA'd in ST. That was my point.

 

[SFGRTB]

The comparison was to the point that Ishi was signed, but still DFA'd in ST. That was my point.

Gotcha. I could easily see that happening with Gearrin, unless they need the space on the roster.

 

[calsnowskier]

Gotcha. I could easily see that happening with Gearrin, unless they need the space on the roster.

They do seem to like Gearrin, but I also think they are going to do a real housecleaning in the bully. That is why I am not sold on even Kontos coming back. I can totally see the org just washing their hands of just about the whole squad.

 

[LHG]

I was thinking about this too. Gillaspie had such a small sample size this year that it's hard to trust. He did provide 1.1 WAR in right around 200 ABs, which is actually pretty good. All the defensive metrics I've seen have painted him as a positive defender for the first time in his career, which I believe because Ron Wotus is a magician and he passed the eye test as well. He's definitely on this team next year in some capacity.

I do like the idea of Nunez as a super-sub, Ben Zobrist style player regardless if Gillaspie can be the starter. There are a couple names out there on the market that could play 3B. Justin Turner, Luis Valbuena (would be my ideal target), Danny Velencia, heck Todd Frazier might be available.

Valbuena? He's got a career slash of .232/.317/.394. He's coming off a career year as a 30 year old platoon player. Valencia is a bit scary as well. Career numbers are a bit better and his last couple of years seem consistent, while playing across the Bay. However, he could be a real clubhouse problem, potentially.

 

[LHG]

They do seem to like Gearrin, but I also think they are going to do a real housecleaning in the bully. That is why I am not sold on even Kontos coming back. I can totally see the org just washing their hands of just about the whole squad.

Still think you are underestimating Kontos. I would guess that Gearrin could be a non-tender in November or December (whenever they make those decisions). Kontos, I think, stays, unless they package him and a couple others in a trade. He is pretty consistent the past three years. In fact, 2013 seemed to be a fluke as his 2012 numbers looked good as well.

 

[SFGRTB]

Valbuena? He's got a career slash of .232/.317/.394. He's coming off a career year as a 30 year old platoon player. Valencia is a bit scary as well. Career numbers are a bit better and his last couple of years seem consistent, while playing across the Bay. However, he could be a real clubhouse problem, potentially.

Valbuena was actually a full-time player, but was lost to injury. His arrow has been pointing up the last 4 years. He's not a spectacular player, but he was on pace for his second straight 25 homer season. He'd probably be cheap too.

Valencia definitely has character red flags, and defensive issues.

 

[LHG]

Valbuena was actually a full-time player, but was lost to injury. His arrow has been pointing up the last 4 years. He's not a spectacular player, but he was on pace for his second straight 25 homer season. He'd probably be cheap too.

Valencia definitely has character red flags, and defensive issues.

Thanks for that information. I wasn't aware that he was injured.

What I would like to know is how his home runs would look at AT&T. I don't remember the website some have used for the overlay but I do think that would be critical to whether his bat would play with the Giants. He doesn't have a good average but does get on base. If his power wouldn't look good here then I would rather pass on him.

Here's the slash for Valbuena, Nunez and Gillaspie for 2016 and last 3 years:
Valbuena (31) - .260/.357/.459; .242/.326/.442
Nunez (29) - .288/.325/.432 (.269/.327/.418 with SF); .278/.305/.421
Gillaspie (29) - .262/.307/.440; .263/.307/.406

The other number I looked it is GDPs per at-bat. For the past three years, Valbuena has hit into one once every 46 at-bats. Nunez has done so once every 59 at-bats and Gillaspie once every 89 at-bats.

If Valbuena can keep the upward movement on his numbers, then he would be an upgrade. If he settles back a bit, then it wouldn't be worth the pickup. He would just be Nunez with a bit more patience and a few more GDPs.

 

[VASFfan]

They do seem to like Gearrin, but I also think they are going to do a real housecleaning in the bully. That is why I am not sold on even Kontos coming back. I can totally see the org just washing their hands of just about the whole squad.

From the current staff, seems like only Law and Smith are guaranteed spots in next year's bullpen, plus maybe Kontos. Casilla and Lopez have to go, due to a combination of age and performance issues (the two do usually go together, don't they?), and given the $ Romo can probably command on the open market I'd probably let him go too. Of course, if he gives us a hometown discount, a significant one, maybe that calculation changes. Unfortunately, any immediate replacements probably don't come from the farm system. Maybe Okert. Or Blach, if the Giants decide he has to be in SF next year but don't have a spot for him in the rotation.

Speaking of which, if Cain next spring looks like he's not getting any better, is there any chance the Giants eat his contract? I'm guessing no, but curious what others think.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think Cain's situation has a lot to do with how the offseason goes.

IF the team gets either one STUD OF (or 2 upgrades) and a full retool of the bully, then I think there is a decent chance Cain is let go after/during ST.

Conversely, if they stick with Austin McParker as the LF and rely on dumpster dives for the bully, he will survive the contract.

 

[SFGRTB]

Thanks for that information. I wasn't aware that he was injured.

What I would like to know is how his home runs would look at AT&T. I don't remember the website some have used for the overlay but I do think that would be critical to whether his bat would play with the Giants. He doesn't have a good average but does get on base. If his power wouldn't look good here then I would rather pass on him.

Here's the slash for Valbuena, Nunez and Gillaspie for 2016 and last 3 years:
Valbuena (31) - .260/.357/.459; .242/.326/.442
Nunez (29) - .288/.325/.432 (.269/.327/.418 with SF); .278/.305/.421
Gillaspie (29) - .262/.307/.440; .263/.307/.406

The other number I looked it is GDPs per at-bat. For the past three years, Valbuena has hit into one once every 46 at-bats. Nunez has done so once every 59 at-bats and Gillaspie once every 89 at-bats.

If Valbuena can keep the upward movement on his numbers, then he would be an upgrade. If he settles back a bit, then it wouldn't be worth the pickup. He would just be Nunez with a bit more patience and a few more GDPs.

Now, his home park is a domed stadium so there are a lot of other factors besides distance that he would have to worry about in AT&T.

His wRC+, which accounts how many runs a player was responsible for, including park factors (average is 100), has averaged 116 over the last 3 years, which would have put him as our 4th most productive hitter on our team this year and his 123 this year would have made him the 2nd most productive. Nunez's last 3 years is at 96, reaching 100 this year, Gonor last 3 years is at 92, achieving 98 this year.

He might not be a huge upgrade, but we need to lengthen the lineup somehow.

 

[calsnowskier]

Wow.

Both Kelly AND Hayes let go. I wasn't expecting the Hayes news.

 

[calsnowskier]

I expect Decker or Dunston to be the new 3B coach, maybe with the other going to 1B.

 

[SFGRTB]

Wow.

Both Kelly AND Hayes let go. I wasn't expecting the Hayes news.

Yeah, Hayes was kinda shocking. He's been with the org for a long time.

I heard Flan might be a possibility too.

 

[SFGRTB]

Bobby Evans praising McParker right now

edit: I should mention, there's a conference on CSN-BA right now, Bobby, Larry, Bochy, Sabes.

 

[calsnowskier]

Yeah, Hayes was kinda shocking. He's been with the org for a long time.

I heard Flan might be a possibility too.

That would be awesome. He is still active, but he left because he actually feared for his health.

 

[calsnowskier]

Bobby Evans praising McParker right now

edit: I should mention, there's a conference on CSN-BA right now, Bobby, Larry, Bochy, Sabes.

As much as I would be excited to get Cespedes, there are a LOT of warning bells on him. I would rather see us go with Austin McParker, personally.

 

[SFGRTB]

Bobby Evans still likes his core in the bullpen and that an overhaul would be an overstatement. Definitely alluded to changes, mainly because there are obvious holes thanks to free agency, but I'd say most of the guys here are safe.

Hello Melancon, it would be cool to add Boone Logan too.

 

[calsnowskier]

Bobby Evans still likes his core in the bullpen and that an overhaul would be an overstatement. Definitely alluded to changes, mainly because there are obvious holes thanks to free agency, but I'd say most of the guys here are safe.

Hello Melancon, it would be cool to add Boone Logan too.

I guess I wouldn't expect him to anything different, because at least a few of these guys will need to come back.

So, who stays?

Law - 100%
Smith - 100%
Strickland - 90%
Kontos - 75%
Nathan - 0%
Casilla - 15%
Romo - 30%
Lopez - 5%
Gearrin - 30%
Osich - team control
Okert - team control
Rogers - team control

 

[Stokes1931]

Wow.

Both Kelly AND Hayes let go. I wasn't expecting the Hayes news.

 

[Stokes1931]

I think Cain's situation has a lot to do with how the offseason goes.

IF the team gets either one STUD OF (or 2 upgrades) and a full retool of the bully, then I think there is a decent chance Cain is let go after/during ST.

Conversely, if they stick with Austin McParker as the LF and rely on dumpster dives for the bully, he will survive the contract.

I'd be interested in seeing of Cain could do some bullpen work. He has usually done well, even in the past few years, for the first several innings, and then blown up. Doubtful Cain would be interested, though.