2016/2017 Off-Season Thread

[calsnowskier]

Yep that's the kind of thing that might happen. Creates an even bigger hole then that has to be filled in terms of the lineup though. Do we really think Parker is ready to provide that kind of OPS, or Shaw? Of course, all trades are a risk.

I'd be sad to see Belt go, but man would he love hitting dingers into that short porch in right at Yankee Stadium

It would certainly need to be just a part of a larger series of moves. But Belt is a tradeable asset, and I am of the opinion that 1B is a position that can be filled rather easily from elsewhere. Belt is good. I like him. His D is a true asset. But his bat, while probably the best on the Giants, is not enough of a bat, AT FIRST BASE, to be considered a cornerstone.

Crawfords bat is great. But part of the reason it is great is because it comes at SS. Posey's bat, as it is now, is only good because it comes from the catcher position. If he got the same numbers as a first baseman, it would not be a good bat. My proposed changes come with the expectation that his bat would improve with less innings in the SKWWWWWAAAAAAT.

 

[msgkings322]

It would certainly need to be just a part of a larger series of moves. But Belt is a tradeable asset, and I am of the opinion that 1B is a position that can be filled rather easily from elsewhere. Belt is good. I like him. His D is a true asset. But his bat, while probably the best on the Giants, is not enough of a bat, AT FIRST BASE, to be considered a cornerstone.

Crawfords bat is great. But part of the reason it is great is because it comes at SS. Posey's bat, as it is now, is only good because it comes from the catcher position. If he got the same numbers as a first baseman, it would not be a good bat. My proposed changes come with the expectation that his bat would improve with less innings in the SKWWWWWAAAAAAT.

Almost facepalmed this. I HATE Krukow's never ending bullshit with that. Joke's over.

And you know I am on board with Posey catching less but man he's so good back there...we have some unusual conundrums.

 

[calsnowskier]

Almost facepalmed this. I HATE Krukow's never ending bullshit with that. Joke's over.

And you know I am on board with Posey catching less but man he's so good back there...we have some unusual conundrums.

I am well aware of your hatred of that... Word?

But yes, Poseys value behind the dish certainly brings value. And Posey still brings a clutch bat from the catcher position, even if it doesn't have power (or average) anymore. I think he would be an ideal 5 or 6 batter, IF you had another bat in the lineup. He is no longer a legit 3/4.

 

[LHG]

It would certainly need to be just a part of a larger series of moves. But Belt is a tradeable asset, and I am of the opinion that 1B is a position that can be filled rather easily from elsewhere. Belt is good. I like him. His D is a true asset. But his bat, while probably the best on the Giants, is not enough of a bat, AT FIRST BASE, to be considered a cornerstone.

Crawfords bat is great. But part of the reason it is great is because it comes at SS. Posey's bat, as it is now, is only good because it comes from the catcher position. If he got the same numbers as a first baseman, it would not be a good bat. My proposed changes come with the expectation that his bat would improve with less innings in the SKWWWWWAAAAAAT.

Betances would certainly be a nice acquisition but I still think you underestimate Belt's value to the lineup and think you are doing that because you are comparing him to offensive numbers 1st basemen were putting up 5 or 10 years ago. Considering the fact that Belt placed 6th in OPS among MLB 1st basemen, with the 2nd half he had, and 5th in WAR says something, both about him and the league when it comes to 1st basemen. The production at 1st base, league wide, is just not what it used to be.
I'd much rather hang on to Belt and see how Shaw does a half season in Sacramento and if Belt is putting up typical numbers in 2017, he would be a really good mid season trade chip. Beside, I thought the Yankees had Greg Bird that they were going with in 2017.

 

[SFGRTB]

Betances would certainly be a nice acquisition but I still think you underestimate Belt's value to the lineup and think you are doing that because you are comparing him to offensive numbers 1st basemen were putting up 5 or 10 years ago. Considering the fact that Belt placed 6th in OPS among MLB 1st basemen, with the 2nd half he had, and 5th in WAR says something, both about him and the league when it comes to 1st basemen. The production at 1st base, league wide, is just not what it used to be.
I'd much rather hang on to Belt and see how Shaw does a half season in Sacramento and if Belt is putting up typical numbers in 2017, he would be a really good mid season trade chip. Beside, I thought the Yankees had Greg Bird that they were going with in 2017.

I was about to post pretty much this.

Belt was one of the best hitters in MLB last year. His wRC+ was 13th in baseball. Dude almost had a .400 OBP, the last Giant to do that was Posey in 2012, then Bonds. I still think he's the perfect number 2 hitter for this team, he just needs guys behind him that are able to drive him in. It would be a steal for the Yankees to get Belt for a reliever.

I get what you're saying because 1st base is usually a power position and an "easier" position to fill, but in our starved offense, we can't trade our best hitter especially for a reliever.

 

[calsnowskier]

Belt was #6 in MLB in OPS for 1st baseman.

But that is misleading.

Votto .985
Freeman .968
Cabrera .956
Rizzo .928
Goldschmidt .899
Belt .868
Ramirez .866
Carter .821
Abreu .820
Napoli .800
Myers .797
Davis .792
Miller .786
Gonzalez .784
Hosmer .761
Maurer .752

Belt is closer to Maurer at #15 than he is to Votto at #1. Based solely on 2016 OPS, I think a solid argument could be made that there were 5 guys and everyone else. Sure, Belt was the best of "everyone else", but he was still "everyone else".

Now, let's look at the players he finished ahead of...

Abreu. Would you rather have Belt or Abreu? Abreu just had his worst year in the bigs while Belt just had his best. And Belts OPS was only .048 better.

Davis. Davis is probably THE elite HR hitter in the game right now. But he is a true 3-outcome-hitter. But he instills fear in the opposing team. Something Belt has never done.

That would put belt at the MAYBE # 8 IB in the game right now. Is that good enough to lock into a long contract? You may say yes. My opinion is no, it is not.

 

[calsnowskier]

I was about to post pretty much this.

Belt was one of the best hitters in MLB last year. His wRC+ was 13th in baseball. Dude almost had a .400 OBP, the last Giant to do that was Posey in 2012, then Bonds. I still think he's the perfect number 2 hitter for this team, he just needs guys behind him that are able to drive him in. It would be a steal for the Yankees to get Belt for a reliever.

I get what you're saying because 1st base is usually a power position and an "easier" position to fill, but in our starved offense, we can't trade our best hitter especially for a reliever.

Yes, he is a nice #2 hitter. If you had a legit 3 or 4 coming from other positions. The Giants don't.

Snow worked as a 1B because the Giants had Bonds, Kent and Aurilia providing the pop elsewhere.

 

[SFGRTB]

Belt was #6 in MLB in OPS for 1st baseman.

But that is misleading.

Votto .985
Freeman .968
Cabrera .956
Rizzo .928
Goldschmidt .899
Belt .868
Ramirez .866
Carter .821
Abreu .820
Napoli .800
Myers .797
Davis .792
Miller .786
Gonzalez .784
Hosmer .761
Maurer .752

Belt is closer to Maurer at #15 than he is to Votto at #1. Based solely on 2016 OPS, I think a solid argument could be made that there were 5 guys and everyone else. Sure, Belt was the best of "everyone else", but he was still "everyone else".

Now, let's look at the players he finished ahead of...

Abreu. Would you rather have Belt or Abreu? Abreu just had his worst year in the bigs while Belt just had his best. And Belts OPS was only .048 better.

Davis. Davis is probably THE elite HR hitter in the game right now. But he is a true 3-outcome-hitter. But he instills fear in the opposing team. Something Belt has never done.

That would put belt at the MAYBE # 8 IB in the game right now. Is that good enough to lock into a long contract? You may say yes. My opinion is no, it is not.

I think you are misleading yourself a bit. Belt would be a lot closer to Votto if he played 81 games in Baltimore, Chicago, Milwaukee... The fact that Davis had a .792 OPS with 38 homers is just sad. He'd probably barely crack .750 in a Giants' uniform. Belt is in the top 25 in MLB in OPS+ and 13th in wRC+, both account for ballparks. He's a great hitter, without the homeruns and RBI. Trading him away would make our lineup worse.

 

[SFGRTB]

Yes, he is a nice #2 hitter. If you had a legit 3 or 4 coming from other positions. The Giants don't.

Snow worked as a 1B because the Giants had Bonds, Kent and Aurilia providing the pop elsewhere.

That's not Belt's fault. We need better hitters, but Belt is not the problem, regardless of his position.

 

[calsnowskier]

This team does not have a 3 OR 4 hitter. Belt included.

The easiest way to get a 3 or 4 hitter is at 1B.

Again, I like Belt. I just think the opportunity cost of investing future money in him is very high. We are locking ourselves into a very nice #2 hitter at a position that should provide a 3 or 4.

 

[msgkings322]

This team does not have a 3 OR 4 hitter. Belt included.

The easiest way to get a 3 or 4 hitter is at 1B.

Again, I like Belt. I just think the opportunity cost of investing future money in him is very high. We are locking ourselves into a very nice #2 hitter at a position that should provide a 3 or 4.

OK who are the 3 or 4 hitter type 1Bs we could reasonably get? None of the guys on that list above him are available. We have to work with other positions for a 3/4 probably.

 

[msgkings322]

Side note: fucking Dodgers won. Partly due to Dusty making dumb moves again.

Now either team that wins the pennant doesn't thrill me. But I gotta go Cubs over Dodgers.

At least the final 4 teams are all new faces for the WS. Last time any of them were there was I guess the 1997 Indians?

 

[calsnowskier]

OK who are the 3 or 4 hitter type 1Bs we could reasonably get? None of the guys on that list above him are available. We have to work with other positions for a 3/4 probably.

My point is that we should not have a moderate FIRST BASEMAN locked up long term (I said this at the time we was signed - this is not my take post second-half). If we have an opening at 1B, than we could fill it with McParker, or Shaw (2018 maybe), Posey, Encarnacion, Napoli, Johnson, Turner, Trumbo, Alvarez, Lind, Howard...

I am not saying all (any?) of these guys are BETTER than Belt. But if we can trade Belt for equal(ish) value, than sign one of these guys (or promote him), the net quantity of the teams talent equity increases.

Who do we get for Belt? I have no idea. The other GMs have not been returning my calls the last few weeks, so I am not sure who is available. I only brought up Betances as a possible target because I heard someone else mention him. I have no idea if the Yanks are interested in Belt or if they are even listening to offers for Betances. Maybe we trade him to the Astros for some stud AAA OFer or 3B.

 

[SFGRTB]

Side note: fucking Dodgers won. Partly due to Dusty making dumb moves again.

Now either team that wins the pennant doesn't thrill me. But I gotta go Cubs over Dodgers.

At least the final 4 teams are all new faces for the WS. Last time any of them were there was I guess the 1997 Indians?

I do love the way Dave Roberts used his Pen though. With the Britton fiasco and then this, I hope it starts the bullpen revolution in the regular season.

 

[LHG]

My point is that we should not have a moderate FIRST BASEMAN locked up long term (I said this at the time we was signed - this is not my take post second-half). If we have an opening at 1B, than we could fill it with McParker, or Shaw (2018 maybe), Posey, Encarnacion, Napoli, Johnson, Turner, Trumbo, Alvarez, Lind, Howard...

I am not saying all (any?) of these guys are BETTER than Belt. But if we can trade Belt for equal(ish) value, than sign one of these guys (or promote him), the net quantity of the teams talent equity increases.

Who do we get for Belt? I have no idea. The other GMs have not been returning my calls the last few weeks, so I am not sure who is available. I only brought up Betances as a possible target because I heard someone else mention him. I have no idea if the Yanks are interested in Belt or if they are even listening to offers for Betances. Maybe we trade him to the Astros for some stud AAA OFer or 3B.

cal, I often agree with you on your assessments. You are probably the biggest reason I finally decided to come over to the Hoop. But I think you are wrong on this one. You argue that Belt is average (my assumption of your posts) and that trading him away would not hurt the team. However, look at the names you suggest as a replacement. Lind? Alvarez? Howard? How exactly would those guys put fear in the opposing pitchers, let alone replace the on base value Belt brings to the team? With Belt gone and one of them in the lineup, now you have to fill in the 2nd spot and still have a mediocre 4th spot hitter. And defense at 1st base suffers. Not sure how this would help the team.

 

[calsnowskier]

cal, I often agree with you on your assessments. You are probably the biggest reason I finally decided to come over to the Hoop. But I think you are wrong on this one. You argue that Belt is average (my assumption of your posts) and that trading him away would not hurt the team. However, look at the names you suggest as a replacement. Lind? Alvarez? Howard? How exactly would those guys put fear in the opposing pitchers, let alone replace the on base value Belt brings to the team? With Belt gone and one of them in the lineup, now you have to fill in the 2nd spot and still have a mediocre 4th spot hitter. And defense at 1st base suffers. Not sure how this would help the team.

First, I am not claiming Belt is average. I am simply saying he is not above average by enough to lock him up long term at a position of relative ease to fill.

Second, your take ignores the return on a potential Belt trade. Maybe he gets that young LFer. Maybe he gets the shut down closer. Maybe the freed up money allows the front office to pursue Cespedes. Maybe the freed up money allows the front office to pursue Melancon.

I am not saying that we dump Belt for a AA journeyman and a handful of McDonalds coupons. I am saying that we get a player/package of substance at another position of need.

 

[fullxtension]

First, I am not claiming Belt is average. I am simply saying he is not above average by enough to lock him up long term at a position of relative ease to fill.

Second, your take ignores the return on a potential Belt trade. Maybe he gets that young LFer. Maybe he gets the shut down closer. Maybe the freed up money allows the front office to pursue Cespedes. Maybe the freed up money allows the front office to pursue Melancon.

I am not saying that we dump Belt for a AA journeyman and a handful of McDonalds coupons. I am saying that we get a player/package of substance at another position of need.

Ultimately, the problem with Belt is that he is a head case. He goes ice cold for long stretches and IMHO has trouble in clutch situations. I like Belt, but we need a bat that worries people at 1B....and in LF for that matter. Jarrett Parker feels like a better play at 1B than Belt. At least he has his head in the game every day.

 

[stanford the manford]

fyi ... 1st base coach billy hayes and 3rd base coach roberto kelly fired. positive move imo

 

[tzill]

Belt was #6 in MLB in OPS for 1st baseman.

But that is misleading.

Votto .985
Freeman .968
Cabrera .956
Rizzo .928
Goldschmidt .899
Belt .868
Ramirez .866
Carter .821
Abreu .820
Napoli .800
Myers .797
Davis .792
Miller .786
Gonzalez .784
Hosmer .761
Maurer .752

Belt is closer to Maurer at #15 than he is to Votto at #1. Based solely on 2016 OPS, I think a solid argument could be made that there were 5 guys and everyone else. Sure, Belt was the best of "everyone else", but he was still "everyone else".

Now, let's look at the players he finished ahead of...

Abreu. Would you rather have Belt or Abreu? Abreu just had his worst year in the bigs while Belt just had his best. And Belts OPS was only .048 better.

Davis. Davis is probably THE elite HR hitter in the game right now. But he is a true 3-outcome-hitter. But he instills fear in the opposing team. Something Belt has never done.

That would put belt at the MAYBE # 8 IB in the game right now. Is that good enough to lock into a long contract? You may say yes. My opinion is no, it is not.

whelp, just looking at the stats presented, I think it's cherry picking to say "5 guys and everyone else." Here's why -- using a differential chart

Votto
Freeman -17
Cabrera -12
Rizzo -28
Goldschmidt -29
Belt -31

That is, the difference from 3 to 4, 4 to 5, and 5 to 6 is pretty similar. It'd be better to say there are "3 guys and everyone else," but you drew the line between Goldy and Belt to make your point. THEN, you jump down to Abreu who is "only" -48. Ditto Davis.

In sum, you make a big deal about a -31 jump from Goldy to Belt, but gloss over -48 and -53 differentials to Abreu and Davis. Can't have it both ways.

No one stat is going to capture everything, but OPS is a decent one. WAR is another.

By WAR:

Freeman 6.1
Rizzo 5.2
Votto 5.0
Cabrera 4.9
Goldschmidt 4.8
Belt 4.4
Myers 3.8
Santana 3.7
Carpenter 3.2
Davis 2.7
Ramirez 2.6
Pearce 2.0
...
Abreu 1.6

By this metric, Belt is kind of alone at #6. You've elevated two guys who are significantly less valuable than Belt, and it's not real close.

Putting all this together, Belt is likely the sixth best 1b in the majors. Worth a long term contract?

Probably.

 

[SFGRTB]

First, I am not claiming Belt is average. I am simply saying he is not above average by enough to lock him up long term at a position of relative ease to fill.

Second, your take ignores the return on a potential Belt trade. Maybe he gets that young LFer. Maybe he gets the shut down closer. Maybe the freed up money allows the front office to pursue Cespedes. Maybe the freed up money allows the front office to pursue Melancon.

I am not saying that we dump Belt for a AA journeyman and a handful of McDonalds coupons. I am saying that we get a player/package of substance at another position of need.

Ignoring positions for a second.

If we trade Belt's bat, what available bat is out there that can replace him? He was 27th in baseball in OPS, 13th in wRC+ (park-adjusted production), 9th in OBP. He was a GREAT hitter playing half his games in AT&T. He's a proven hitter here without needing to hit homers. Trading Belt just seems like a step sideways, or even backwards to me.

Kole Calhoun is a guy I brought up earlier in this thread, would probably make good trade partners with Belt. Ryan Bruan? That probably makes the most sense in a trade, a straight one-for-one. I would rather keep Belt.